kirby smart

Previously: Georgia Offense 

On Tuesday we covered the Georgia offense, which is a good unit that is not known for being elite or high powered. The defense though? Well, that's a different narrative. Through 12 games, the college football world was marveling at the Georgia defense that was allowing just 6.9 points per game. They had given up just seven offensive touchdowns total and were only allowing 229.7 yards per game on average. Articles were written at major publications with headlines such as Georgia's Defense Isn't Just Good — It Might Be 'Best Ever' Good. The narrative of Georgia's impenetrable defense was robust and firm but then crumbled in the blink of an eye over the course of a few hours in Atlanta in early December. The Alabama offense and Bryce Young gashed Georgia for 536 yards on 7.7 yards per play and a whopping 41 points, a collapse of a once-mighty defense so dramatic that it had your author tweeting about Don Brown. So which Georgia defense is the real Georgia defense? And how much can Michigan replicate what Alabama accomplished against the 'Dawgs? Let's dive in: 

The Film: Sticking with the same two from our offense piece, Alabama and Auburn. Georgia's defense has been torched once this season, and it was against the Crimson Tide, so that's a must-watch. Auburn, on the other hand, is simply a representative of the other 12 games where Georgia dominated its opposition. That said, I chose Auburn specifically because while it was a game that Georgia's defense played very well in, it also wasn't a total annihilation (Auburn gained over 300 yards), which should prove useful for hunting for soft spots in this defense. I also watched the extended highlights of a few other UGA games for more information on the defense and insights from that have been pooled into the writing of this piece, with a few clips being dropped in too. 

Personnel: Seth's chart. 

Hoo boy, that's a lot of stars. Of course, that's to be expected for a defense that has held opponents to 9.5 points per game on the season and is first in SP+ defensive efficiency by a significant margin. We'll get more into how the defense sets up schematically in the next section but their "defensive line" is technically three guys, two "ends" and a nose. The WDE and nose are both big boys (true defensive tackles) while the SDE is a bit lighter and more pass rush(y) (more of a defensive end). The WDE/nose rotate between three main options, all of whom are stars. The starter at WDE is Devonte Wyatt, a monster who graded out as +10/-2 against both Auburn and Alabama, capable of pass rushing and stopping any running back dead in his tracks. Similarly, former 5* Jalen Carter rotates in behind Davis and received the exact same grade against those two teams. Dominant.

The starter at nose is one of the top physical specimen in all of college football, 6'6", 340 lb. Jordan Davis, who is the kind of player that 3-4 defenses dream of having at the NT position on their defensive front, a consensus All-American this season. Beyond those three there's also Warren Brinson, Zion Logue, and Nazir Stackhouse, but they play quite a bit less than the main rotation guys and are also significantly worse. The SDE spot is held by another former 5* in Travon Walker, also receiving a star on our diagram as a pass rushing menace. The three primary "ends" of Walker, Carter, and Wyatt have combined for 21 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and 62 QB hurries in 13 games this season. Tramel Walthour is a backup at SDE and was definitely on the verge of receiving a cyan. 

Though Georgia has a three-man DL, they use a JACK who typically lines up at the line of scrimmage to be used as either an additional pass-rusher or someone who can drop into coverage. The starting JACK is none other than former #1 overall recruit Nolan Smith (2019 class), an edge terror who fits that role in the defense perfectly. Robert Beal Jr. is the backup behind Smith and he's fine. The other hybrid position is the STAR role (their HSP) which is currently more defensive-back oriented. Earlier in the season Georgia aimed to make that role more linebacker-like and had Adam Anderson play it. Anderson was an immensely effective blitzer who racked up five sacks in just eight games, but his season came to an end after he was charged with sexual assault and has not played since late October. In Anderson's absence, the STAR spot has been played by a player who is otherwise a DB, first Latavious Brini but also William Poole, who started against Alabama. Christopher Smith has played some STAR too and sometimes they omit the STAR for a true three safety look. 

The two traditional linebackers are headlined by WLB Nakobe Dean, who won the HS edition of the Butkus Award in 2018 as the nation's top HS linebacker en route to 5* status and then won the college version of it this season en route to being 1st team All-American. Dean is a sideline-to-sideline beast (think Devin Bush) and will be drafted in the first round of April's NFL Draft. Quay Walker holds the other starting LB spot, who is quite good too, if not Nakobe Dean good. Backing him up is Channing Tindall (also starred) and those three suck up nearly all the snaps at this position. 

In the secondary, the talent is plentiful as well. Your starting corners are Kelee Ringo and Derion Kendrick, both of whom are former 5* guys. Ringo impressed me in my viewings and Kendrick is good as well (Kendrick is a Clemson transfer, we should point out). Reserves Ameer Speed, Javon Bullard, and Kamari Lassiter lack the blue chip talent of Ringo and Kendrick, but neither are weak spots in my eyes. There's a pretty significant gap in the snaps between the usage of Ringo, Kendrick, and Brini (from the STAR position) and their backups. The three starters have all logged more than 500 snaps this season, while none of these reserves have played more than 200. 

Finally, at safety Georgia is starting Lewis Cine at the FS position, who earned All-America honors from one publication. I was not as enthusiastic about his effort against Alabama, but that was a blip on the radar of a very strong season, so star status is maintained. Opposite him at SS you have walk-on Dan Jackson, but he has actually received fewer snaps in totality than Christopher Smith, who I liked more in my viewings. These three consume virtually all the snaps at safety, but we'll throw the name David Daniel out there just for the heck of it. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: finding the Death Star exhaust port]

After a few weeks off, we're back with the most pivotal FFFF of the season: the Orange Bowl, everybody! Michigan and Georgia square off in just a few short days for a clash between #2 and #3 in the College Football Playoff semifinals. We kick it off by looking at Georgia's offense, which has gotten much less coverage than its legendary defense, but this phase of the game could be as important as the other dimension. Keeping UGA's offense in the yard is hugely important for Michigan on New Year's Eve, so today we're going to look over the Georgia defense and analyze how it is one could slow down this unit. 

The Film: Just like the preceding two editions of this column, I decided to use two games to get a feel for Georgia because there are two distinct kinds of Georgia games this season. The first kind saw the Dawgs pound the living daylights out of the first 12 teams they played. The second kind was them getting torched by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Naturally I had to watch the Alabama game, but also wanted to include one of UGA's dominant efforts against a respectable regular season opponent to showcase why the Bulldogs got to the CFP in the first place.

Georgia's schedule until facing Alabama was lacking in higher end competition, and arguably the best non-Bama team they played was Clemson early in the season. That game saw JT Daniels start at QB, though, making it unusable. Beyond that, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn were on the list, and I tabbed Auburn because they grade out rather favorably in the advanced metrics and we have a B1G measuring stick on them, roughly comparable to Penn State (they lost to the Nittany Lions in State College in September by eight). The Tigers aren't a great opponent, but I think they are the best option out of rather slim pickings here. 

Personnel: Seth's chart.

Georgia entered the season with two options at QB, Stetson Bennett IV and JT Daniels. Daniels is a former 5* transfer from USC, while Bennett is the antithesis of that: an in-stater and former walk-on who played JuCo before returning to Georgia in 2019. Both got some run last season, but it was Daniels who finished the season strong and won Georgia the Peach Bowl. He entered the season as the starter but after a couple of games, ran into a series of injuries, first the oblique and then his lats. That forced him to miss several weeks stretching into late October, during which Bennett Wally Pipp'd him. When Daniels was finally healthy to return, Kirby Smart stuck with Bennett, getting Daniels looks only in garbage time situations. Bennett rolls into the Orange Bowl as the starter, but after a team-wide humiliating effort against Alabama, the QB controversy rumors haven't quite died out yet (UPDATE: Daniels entered COVID protocol on Dec. 21). 

Georgia's got a monstrous RB rotation, with several highly effective backs. The nominal starter is James Cook, brother of Dalvin and a former top 50 recruit, who has carried the ball 101 times for over 6.0 YPC with 7 TDs. He shares the backfield with Zamir White, a former 5* who has rushed 135 times for over 5.0 YPC and 10 TDs. White is the bigger back, used more in short-yardage situations, while Cook is used more as a receiving threat (21 catches for 157 yards and three TDs). Beyond those two, Kendall Milton was getting 8-10 carries a game at 5.0 YPC before an injury suffered against Kentucky wiped out the rest of his regular season. Reports are that he is healed for the Orange Bowl. With Milton out, the third back had become Kenny McIntosh, who has carried it 54 times on the year for nearly 6 YPC and 3 TDs himself. Georgia loves to run the football and they're effective at it in part because they have a rotating cast of options, all of whom are ex-top 200 recruits, that split the load so no one gets too tired and ensures there are always fresh legs on the field. 

Though Georgia's roster is lined with talent that only Alabama and Ohio State can rival, they are a far cry from the Buckeyes at WR, running out two of three starters who were not even in the top 300, and none of them are exactly Olave/Wilson/JSN caliber. I do like the spectacularly named Ladd McConkey, son of Phil McConkey, who some may remember for a brief but moderately memorable NFL career that included several key plays in Super Bowl XXI (and also later had a brief political career). Ladd was outside the composite's top 1000 but has become his team's starting slot receiver at 6'0/185 and the leading WR on the team by receiving yards. 

The other starting wide receivers from the regular season are outside guys Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchell. Burton is the lone blue chip WR prospect in a starting role, while Mitchell offers the height at a lanky 6'4/190. Drilling deeper you find guys like Kearis Jackson, Jackson Meeks, Jaylen Johnson and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, but their snaps and catches on the season are limited. The one wildcard here is George Pickens, a former 5* recruit who was a dangerous weapon in both 2019 and 2020 as UGA's WR1 and was a projected pre-season All-American before his season was thrown off track due to an ACL injury in March. He's somehow worked his way back, playing a bit in the last couple weeks of the season, but after another month of healing, he has the potential to be a major weapon. A 100% healthy Pickens would be the best WR on Georgia by a country mile. (UPDATE: Pickens entered COVID protocol on Dec. 22) 

The review of those WR options doesn't sound the most enthusiastic and that's because all of the receiving focus should be trained on the TE spot and one Brock Bowers. Listed just outside the composite's top 100 in this most recent recruiting class, Bowers has become an excellent player at a pace more rapid than anyone could imagine. He leads the Bulldogs with 791 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman (!!!!). At 6'4, 230 lbs., he's a tank who can block and catch, hauling in 19 more receptions than any other player on the team (and 361 more receiving yards), quickly emerging as Bennett's favorite target. 

The other TEs are notable more for blocking than receiving, but they have a role in the offense. John FitzPatrick has only caught six balls on the season but has played over 400 snaps (30+ a game), largely as a blocking TE because Georgia features many two and three TE sets. Darnell Washington only has nine catches on the season (also more of a blocking TE), but he's a more interesting piece to note because of his 6'7/265 size, which can make him a jump ball target. 

Georgia's OL is littered with blue chip prospects, starting with 5* LT Jamaree Salyer, who protects Bennett's blindside. Opposite him at RT is Warren McClendon, who is, along with C Sedrick Van Pran, the baby of the line. The guards tout more experience, Justin Shaffer at LG and Warren Ericson at RG. All five guys were top 300 composite recruits, and all five guys are listed at 6'4". The sixth piece on the line, who rotates in, is 5* OT Broderick Jones. This OL is one of the best in the country on paper, having allowed only 11 sacks, just one more than Michigan in the same number of games. That mark is fifth best in the country. They open holes for the RBs and keep Bennett clean... most all of the time. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: I hope you like clips!]

Brian is out sick so this is my first shot at one of these. I’m not as plugged in as the other guys so if I missed something important leave it in the comments. Mostly this is going to be Army Game practice stuff.

No Blind Siding

Michigan target Chuck Filiaga, with normal-sized humans [U.S. Army All-American Bowl, via USA Today]

Let’s start with the good news: Crystal balls to Michigan are still flying in for 4* TX OT Chuck Filiaga, who’s a 6’6/335 pound shot at a starting left tackle that Michigan desperately needs. Filiaga will be at right tackle during the Army Game because his team is full of LTs. His decision, between Michigan, Oklahoma, and Nebraska is scheduled for noon.

Even if Filiaga enters the fold, Michigan is not done recruiting potential tackles. Next likeliest target, 3* OT Mekhi Becton, told Maize and Brew that Michigan remains “definitely high on my list.” Michigan also make the top three for AL 3* OT Toryque Bateman, though grades and the likelihood of other commits coming/sticking makes that seem unlikely now.

Obligatory Najee Section: We are linebackers

You have been a good recruiting follower so you’ve so far managed to refrain from watching the parade of ankleless linebackers following 5* CA RB Najee Harris to various endzones. The recruiting industry is finding him just as slippery. We are now officially past the Flight Aware segment of the recruitment and on to Flight Plan Aware. 247’s Bart Simmons first wrote yesterday that Army Bowl people said they’re flying Harris back home after the game, but then said a source told him Harris had requested a change to the wrong Birmingham:

Per a source, Harris has requested a flight change — asking to land in Birmingham now, instead of back home in California (Oakland). That would put the running back on Alabama's campus by Sunday evening at the latest as an early-enrollee, ending a dizzying back-and-forth between Alabama and Michigan that's worn on for months.

I maintain that you should ignore virtually everything until Harris is literally on campus at one school or the other on Monday, since that is quite apparently his preferred method of announcement. Bama people seem confident, Michigan people seem confident. Rivals had their national analysts weigh in, with votes going 2-1 in favor of the Tide. Harris has denied everything. Look closely at anyone new in your freshman seminar Monday.

Willie Being Silly?

The last round of interviews from San Antonio with MS 4* OLB Willie Gay have convinced reporters that LSU now leads Michigan and Mississippi State for what would be the first life form to ever escape “the Sip.” For their part LSU is taking Gay’s sudden interest very seriously, with Tigers linebacker commit Patrick Queen rescheduling his official to coincide with Gay’s. Sam Webb confirmed that LSU is the stated leader…

"Really all of my schools are even. LSU has probably got a little bit high, a little bit. I don't know where I'm going to go yet but LSU has moved up a little bit higher."

…but reported that Gay’s family is still heavily favoring Michigan, and this doesn’t sound like someone who’s moved on:

"They didn't move down,” he said.  “When I went to Michigan it was like, perfect. Everything I ever wanted in a school… academics, I feel like I was at home still (and) the weather wasn't that bad to me. I was cool with the cold weather. I loved it."

Gay called the report that LSU leads “kind of accurate.” Call me a homer but I think this one has a lot of elements of a guy who’s messing with reporters. Michigan does still have to weather an official visit to down-the-street Mississippi State in addition to that to LSU on the 20th. I doubt it’s done.

Wille a Will? Possibly relevant, according to SEC Country LSU is recruiting him at WLB:

LSU is courting Gay as a WILL linebacker to help pad the team’s depth at a crucial position.

If you remember your Wisconsin previews, Aranda’s 3-4 has a WILL that’s a second middle linebacker—think Mike McCray’s job—so no they’re not trying to make him Vince Biegel, but neither are they calling him a slot overhang guy. Michigan has made it clear he would play the multifarious Peppers SAM spot.

Thinking

Possibly unrelatedly, this got tweeted:

Y'all gotta think... a kid will press one school to then choose the other for the surprise ... just think

— Tarik Black (@LetmeRockk_) January 5, 2017

Big Nose Tackle Options are Shrinking

You would think if there is only one word in the English language that an uncommitted prospect can put before “Michigan” to erase any doubt about his intentions, it’s “F---.” Well, 5* GA DT Aubrey Solomon dropped just that particular bomb this week in a Periscope to fellow former Michigan commit WR Jeremiah Holloman (now a 4* UGA commit). A day later Solomon apologized on twitter to Michigan fans.

So: we’re done? Not quite. Sam said on his segment today that Michigan is still after him hard, which WTF?

I guess there are two ways to look at it: On one hand perhaps Aubrey was consoling a friend who apparently got pushed out of the class by higher-rated receivers. The other way to look at it is “What is literally the last thing you want to hear from a guy Michigan is recruiting?”. The likelihood of Option B is the likelihood this is officially happy trails. If you’re holding out for the sympathy words excuse, Michigan still has a lot of ground to make up.

That leaves Michigan’s hopes for a guy who can instantly spell Mone next year down to just UT 4* DT Jay Tufele. While Ohio State was a major factor earlier in this recruitment, lately the sense has been that hometown Utah has moved ahead of both Midwestern rivals. Michigan’s former director of player personnel Tony Tuioti leaving to become DL coach at Fresno State could not have helped the Wolverines’ chances. However Tufele told Sam at the Army Game practices today that at least distance won’t be a deciding factor:

“It was never a factor,” he reiterated. “For me going away or going home… it’s either one. It’s just at the end of the day it is going to be wherever best fits me… that’s where I’m going to go.”

While painting the picture of a Ryan Glasgow-like player, Sam noted the relationship with Bryan Mone. Official visits to USC and Utah loom for a now-crucial recruitment that could go a lot of ways. Scout…uh scout Brandon Huffman also chimed in on why Tufele’s a big deal:

Through the first part of the week, Tufele has been the MVP of the defense. He's yet to lose rep in the one-on-ones and when he went against the East interior offensive linemen during Tuesday's practice, he was beating them repeatedly just as he was the O-linemen for the West team. Tufele has a cat-quick first step and grown man strength. Tufele is considering BYU, Michigan, Ohio State, USC and Utah.

While BYU and USC are probably placeholders, Michigan has at best as good a chance as the other two, which equals not a great chance.

At least our scouting works. Once again solid Oregon commit Rutger Reitmaier is making everybody’s lists for top performers at the Army practices. 247’s Bart Simmons’s East team update depressingly mentioned two names familiar to Michigan fans this cycle as standout defensive tackles: Reitmaier, and OG prospect Tedarrell Slaton, who’s expected to commit to Florida. Slaton was also the largest prospect in attendance, weighing in at 363 lbs.

The Sabanification of Georgia is Not a Good Development

After leading for a year for AL 4* WR Nico Collins, suddenly it appears Georgia has made it a game. Wiltfong:

A source close to Clay-Chalkville Top247 receiver Nico Collins told 247Sports this week he thinks Michigan and Georgia are on top.

He added he thinks will be the Bulldogs and not the Wolverines that ultimately sign the four-star recruit.

That would indeed be an upset of greater magnitude than turning around Isaiah Wilson, since Collins made multiple visits to Michigan on his own dime. He’ll announce on national signing day.

The Dawgs showing some bite on the recruiting trail after Kirby Smart’s first season ended 8-5 in the Liberty Bowl has caused some people in our community to wonder what’s going on down there. The answer is that it was far more extraordinary that Richt had Georgia at merely Lloyd Carr level in the Age of the SEC. Georgia is twice the recruiting ground of any other SEC state save Florida, and in-state rival GT is less of a threat than Michigan State is to us. Plus, Athens is gorgeous, admittedly as nice a town/campus as Ann Arbor; I can personally attest that their gameday atmosphere is unreal. And Georgia's not a bad school either.

I’m sure some Bama stuff is going on there, but the real reason they’re a threat to Michigan now is because Michigan has chosen to invade SEC territory and compete against the best the SEC has to offer.

Scouting Updates on Committed Recruits

Sam Webb did a feature this morning on WTKA on the Michigan guys he’s watched and spoken to down in San Antonio, and while I couldn’t get the Audioboom recording to work  MGoUser ColelsCorky kindly summarized it on our board. Among tidbits in there that weren’t mentioned already, Ambry Thomas looks like an early contributor, Deron Irving-Bey is unrefined but also Young Taco-like off the edge, and Tarik Black has been a “revelation.” Huffman’s scouting report agreed on the last:

The Michigan commit has consistently made plays all week and impressed with his smooth route running for being a bigger framed kid. He has shown good, reliable hands and ball skills as well.

Sam and Josh Newkirk caught up with Black on Wednesday and asked him to name his (homer) pick for top cornerback he’s faced, which offers us a nice segue into MI 4* CB Ambry Thomas:

“I’m not being biased or anything like that cause he’s a Michigan commit. But I do think he’s the best corner out here.”

Adding: “He’s a technician, a long ranging guy and has a lot of speed. You've got to work him to get open.”

Another Michigan recruit who could challenge for early playing time, DE/DT Donovan Jeter got a new eval from Brian Dohn, and it sounds like one of those that could accompany a ratings bump:

Final Thought: Jeter offers position flexibility, which is a great thing for a staff and a player. He can be a defensive end, particularly on the weakside where he can use his length and quickness in his first two steps, or he can add weight and strength and move inside. His body can easily handle 290 pounds, and keeping his quickness is not a concern. His hand speed will also allow him to be successful on the interior of the defensive line.

At 6’6/261 Jeter seems large enough to be in the mix for some standard-down spelling of Chase Winovich as a more Taco-shaped WDE, or Rashan Gary’s backup at SDE immediately. Since Gary is expected to take off some of Hurst’s load at tackle this year, the Anchor position has plenty of snaps available.

The Distant Future 2018

After talking up SEC football 6’6 NJ TE Elijah McAllister told Steve Wiltfong he grew up a Michigan fan and that Michigan has been in contact. I may have posted that just for this quote:

“I liked the SEC culture, everyone is great down South. Growing up in New Jersey, a lot of fast-moving people, not everyone is nice. Down South everyone is nice.

MGoBlog’s official Southern correspondent BiSB reports that “Bless your heart” is actually Tennesseean for “F--- you!”, but as we noted above that doesn’t necessarily mean they hate you.