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Previously: Defensemen, Incoming forwards/goaltending, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers. Well, two tiers really. It's a pretty open conference this year:

Tier I: Tenuous favorites - Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State

Michigan

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota 

Last season: 1st in B1G, 29-10-1 (17-3-4), lost in National Title Game  

Key Additions: Oliver Moore, Sam Rinzel, Jimmy Clark, Max Rud, Nick Michel 

Key Losses: Logan Cooley, Matthew Knies, Jackson LaCombe, Brock Faber, Ryan Johnson

The Gophers are a case study in the volume of roster losses vs. the production of losses. Minnesota didn't lose that many players, towards the bottom of teams in the conference in sheer number of players that left the squad. However, the players they lost were massive impact pieces and you would not be wrong in arguing that Minnesota lost five of their six best players in the offseason. Which matters more, and who can fill those big shoes, will determine the trajectory of Minnesota's season. 

I generally lean more towards the side of the spectrum that argues that it's who you lost more than how many players you lost. Minnesota's losses are enormous, starting up at forward. Last season their team was built around the fact that they had arguably the best line in college hockey, Logan Cooley centering Matthew Knies and Jimmy Snuggerud. Those three players combined to score ~38% of the team's goals and ~33% of the team's points. This season they lose Cooley, who changed his mind about playing in an NHL/College Hockey arena in Arizona and signed with the Coyotes (already scored a sick goal!), and Matthew Knies, who signed with the Maple Leafs in the spring. Those two players both were finalists for the Hobey Baker, with Cooley for me being the only player in college hockey who had a case for the award besides Adam Fantilli. He was ridiculously good and Knies was so essential in making that line work via his puck recovery skills, dominance around the net, and defensive detail. 

[Bill Rapai]

Losing players of that caliber is not easy, even if Jimmy Snuggerud returns. I like Snuggerud quite a bit, but I felt that he was the third piece of that line. If he can replicate his 21 goals and 50 points with new linemates, more power to him and I will be impressed. But I need to see it. In terms of recruits, Minnesota slides in Oliver Moore, 1st round pick of Chicago, at center. I like Moore, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the same caliber of prospect as Logan Cooley. 7th round pick Jimmy Clark should help the depth scoring but what Minnesota needs is for the rest of the roster to step up and replace the firepower they lost. Better seasons from the likes of Connor Kurth and Brody Lamb, in addition to Bryce Brodzinski pouring in 19 goals again, would definitely help. 

The other element that made Minnesota so great last season was their four horsemen on defense, upperclassmen defensemen who gobbled tough minutes and controlled the game, tilting the ice towards Minnesota on every shift. Three of those four are now gone, with only Mike Koster returning. Sam Rinzel, 1st round pick, will help, but he cannot replace the seniority and the experience of those departed defenders. This is still a very talented blue line, Rinzel, Ryan Chesley, Luke Mittelstadt, but those three players are all underclassmen. There will be a drop-off in the manner in which the Gophers can dominate the games and protect Justen Close, a goalie who has thrived in the system but has had his wobbles against higher quality shots (and shooters). 

I do expect this Minnesota team to be good, which is why I have them in the top group. They still have a ton of talent, they still have Bob Motzko as their coach, and enough players return to guarantee some level of continuity. But I don't anticipate this to be anywhere near as dominant of a team, too much talent leaving the roster and crucially, too much experience. While Minnesota has been such a consistent team night-in and night-out over the last two seasons, I foresee a bit more of a spottier team, one with the choppiness that Michigan typically has that comes with a more freshman/sophomore heavy roster. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the other five teams + predictions]

The Essentials 

THE US 

Michigan has arrived in the B1G Tournament Championship Game, just like we always thought. Despite a bumpy end to the regular season that cost the Wolverines the regular season title, they have bounced back and played their way to within a game of the tournament title. Michigan blasted MSU in a two-game sweep in the quarterfinals, then defeated Notre Dame in a tight and physical semifinal matchup at Yost. Michigan is 2nd in PairWise and can jump into the pole position (thus locking up the 1st overall seed for the NCAA Tournament) with a win in this game. 

Michigan's points and goals leader is Matty Beniers, who has 19 and 40, respectively. Right behind him in the goals column are Brendan Brisson and Luke Hughes. I presume that Mel Pearson will stick with the same lines as last weekend, which had Beniers centering Brisson and Kent Johnson as the top line. Thomas Bordeleau has typically been centering Michael Pastujov and Mark Estapa the last few weeks, while the third line has been set for a couple months, with Dylan Duke, Johnny Beecher, and Mackie Samoskevich on it. After such a complete performance last weekend, I think Mel ought to keep the line configurations consistent. 

THE THEM

I was one of the many people who left Minnesota for dead back in late January. The Gophers lost starting goalie (and old friend) Jack LaFontaine to the NHL in a surprising mid-season move, and were entrusting their crease to unproven backup Justen Close. Two weeks into the Close era the team was 2-2, with Close posting an .882 SV% in those games, in line with his performances when he had played previously. He looked shaky and the goaltending fundamentals were not terribly sharp when I watched him play against Michigan. Combined with Minnesota about to lose its Olympians for three weeks, I thought they were cooked. I was wrong. 

Since we last saw Minnesota, the Gophers are 10-0-1, ripping off win after win and in the process locking up the regular season conference title and thus the top seed in this event. Close (who I will discuss later in more detail) caught fire and the team rose to a new level. The big story of this winning streak is how stingy Minnesota has been defensively, which is partially goaltending, but also because they are a very good defensive team. In those eleven games since Michigan last saw Minnesota, the Gophers have surrendered >2 goals in regulation once. 

[Madeline Hinkley]

Minnesota has a good balance of organic program guys and also plenty of NHL picks. They don't have Michigan's level of high end gems, but they are still one of college hockey's two or three most talented teams when it comes to future pros. Their top player is not a drafted guy, but he will be in an NHL organization very soon: C Ben Meyers. Meyers has posted 16 goals and 36 points in 30 games, playing very well at both ends of the ice, plus being a faceoff savant. He will be one of the top two or three undrafted free agents once the NCAA season ends. Other forwards to know are a pair of veterans, Sammy Walker and Bryce Brodzinski, who should be inducted into the JT Barrett/Aaron Craft/Jordan Bohannon Hall of Feels Like They've Been There Forever. A couple freshmen NHL prospects round out the forwards, Matthew Knies (2nd rounder, TOR), who is a bona fide stud and netfront menace, as well as sniper Chaz Lucius (1st rounder, WPG), who has had a slow freshman year but possesses immense talent. 

The Gophers pride themselves on their NHL-laden defense corps. Brock Faber (2nd rounder, LAK) is probably the #1 D from a defensive perspective, but there are plenty of more names. Jackson LaCombe (2nd rounder, ANA) is the highest scoring defenseman, and Ryan Johnson (1st rounder, BUF) isn't a slouch either. Minnesota is a team with impact players up and down the lineup and they are meticulously coached by Bob Motzko. Fundamentally sound, fast, skilled, and competitive. The Gophers have a lot to play for when it comes to the NCAA Tournament too, with the ability to nail down a #1 seed for the second straight year if they beat Michigan. Otherwise they're left hoping that WMU and North Dakota do poorly in the NCHC Tournament. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]