donta scott

2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half

Yesterday we covered the lower half of the B1G and ranked teams 14-8. Today we will be doing the same but for the upper half of the conference, talking less about despair and more about hope and pivotal questions that could define the seasons. Our first entrant in this article is also a new face in the conference: 

7. Indiana

Projected starting lineup:

• G, Xavier Johnson
• G, Parker Stewart
• F, Miller Kopp
• F, Race Thompson
• F, Trayce Jackson-Davis

Mike Woodson takes over in Bloomington and if he wants to begin his era off on the right foot, making the NCAA Tournament is a good way to begin. Luckily for him, the Hoosiers have a high floor by returning Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is a B1G Player of the Year candidate. TJD is an elite rebounder who gets to the stripe at an incredibly high rate, in addition to soaking up a ginormous volume of possessions. Indiana leans on him heavily, but whether the Hoosiers wind up in March Madness probably depends on whether or not they find impact players besides TJD.

Race Thompson returns as well, a slightly smaller and far less used version of TJD. He rebounds, blocks, and gets to the line just like the IU star, but his usage is indicative of a role player and not a star. Thompson should be in line for a bigger job this season, but if he is, then you have a situation where both of IU’s two biggest pieces can’t shoot from outside, which raises relevant questions about floor spacing and the ability of this team to pack the perimeter punch. Rob Phinisee returns as a guard off the bench, but he certainly won’t add that three-point shooting (career 29.8%).

The rest of the roster consists of new players that Woodson has imported to Indiana. Xavier Johnson is a high usage PG from Pitt who will be expected to run the offense but he, too, has struggled from three in his career and could best be described up to this point as a “turnover machine”. Perhaps a reduced role akin to Mike Smith last year could reign some of the wildness in and make him take better shots. Parker Stewart sat out last season after transferring from UT-Martin and is supposed to be the sharp-shooter that this roster lacks. Miller Kopp could bring some perimeter shooting from the wing position if he’s more 2019-20 (39.6%) than 2021-21 (32.0%), after arriving from Northwestern. Tamar Bates also should play a role as a top 50 recruit off the bench. 

To me, Indiana starts out as a bubble team. They won’t be terrible, because of TJD and to a lesser extent, Thompson. But outside shooting is the crucial factor as to whether IU is another Archie-style bellyflop or a genuinely encouraging 8-9 seed type team, which is mostly a function of how well all the offseason shopping this program did in the transfer portal really went. Though Woodson has no recruits of his own on this roster, we’ll get a decent temperature of how he is as a B1G coach in year #1 based on how well he can integrate the fresh faces.

6. Michigan State

Projected lineup:

• G, Tyson Walker
• G, Max Christie
• F, Gabe Brown
• F, Joey Hauser
• F, Marcus Bingham

Michigan State missed Cassius Winston like a baby misses its pacifier last season, cycling through a number of PG options and never really landing on one until their season ran out in the NCAA Tournament’s play-in game against UCLA (haha, losers, what kind of team loses to UCLA?). Tom Izzo thinks he may have solved that problem by reeling in PG transfer Tyson Walker from Northeastern. Walker was a magnificent player in the Colonial Athletic Association, winning that conference’s POY award after posting 19 a game with 5 assists, shooting 35% from deep on humongous usage. Walker is a little undersized and of course there will be transition costs, but he could be a big addition (for the record, the CAA is roughly ranked akin to the Sun Belt and Ivy League in KP’s conference rankings).

The other big addition is five-star SG Max Christie, a 6’6” prospect who profiles as a knock down shooter with skill and poise, not unlike Michigan’s addition of Caleb Houstan. Considering that MSU couldn’t buy a three last season, adding impact shooting perimeter shooting is big. The big question for the Spartans is who whether Walker and Christie are ready to gobble up a high volume of possessions, because losing Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts, and Josh Langford means that three of MSU’s top four usage guys from last season are out the door, including their top two.

The question increases in importance when you remember that the other pieces, though familiar, have refused to take charge offensively. Lanky stretch forward Gabe Brown has been a useful option, but he’s allergic to playing an active role in the offense, and the same can be said for big men Malik Hall and Marcus Bingham. Which is why MSU’s season hinges on Joey Hauser. The Marquette transfer was not the big splash addition that Spartan fans had hoped for last season, shooting just 34% from three and 61% at the line for a 103.8 ORTG. That represented a big turn from the promising player that Hauser had seemed to be in 2019 for the Golden Eagles.

If Hauser can re-find his Marquette form, then a good campaign from Christie and Walker may be enough to boost MSU into the top four of the league. But, those are all sizable question marks considering you’re talking about one player transferring in from mid-major basketball, another who’s never played a collegiate game, and a third who struggled mightily in his first B1G season. For now, we keep State in the middle of the B1G.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More transfers!]

The scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Wisconsin 54, Michigan 77
• Northwestern 71, OSU 81
• Purdue 81, Indiana 69
• Wisconsin 60, Rutgers 54
• Wingate 58, Maryland 100
• Michigan 57, Minnesota 75
• OSU 87, Illinois 81
• Penn State 72, Purdue 80
• Iowa 96, Northwestern 73

Yes, Maryland played D-II Wingate because they didn't want to sit out the week when their game against Nebraska got postponed, and playing a lower-division team doesn't impact their NET ranking. It was a glorified scrimmage.

Ohio State is your big winner of the week, going 2-0 with an upset at Illinois despite losing their top two point guards. Purdue also went 2-0 with a rivalry win at Indiana. Northwestern is falling hard back to earth, losing both their games and continuing to plummet down the advanced rankings. Wisconsin ground out a 1-1 week by taking an ugly one at the RAC, while Iowa played only one game—against those flailing Wildcats—and continued their hot streak.

The Standings

*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.

Minnesota, courtesy of that game, is your biggest mover of the week, with Indiana nearly matching them in the opposite direction. The Boilermakers also made a significant jump. Meanwhile, OSU is close to catching Illinois in both the conference standings and the fancystats, while Wisconsin is caught between those two and the very two of Iowa and Michigan.

[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on COVID outbreaks, a blueprint for slowing Ayo Dosumnu, the question looming over Iowa, the freakiest GIF I've ever made, and more.]