chris holtmann
The scores from last week (home team listed second):
- Maryland 63, Michigan 87
- Purdue 67, OSU 65
- PSU 65, Illinois 79
- Northwestern 52, Wisconsin 68
- Indiana 81, Iowa 69
- Rutgers 67, PSU 75
- Michigan 70, Purdue 53
- OSU 74, Wisconsin 62
- Maryland 63, Minnesota 49
- Northwestern 78, PSU 81
- Rutgers 74, Indiana 70
Your big winner of this week was (sigh) Michigan, the only team to play two games and get through unscathed—and they did so with two blowouts, one over a surging Purdue squad. They'll hang onto first place in the conference through the department-wide pause because Iowa's shooters went cold while their defense gave up 1.18 points per possession to Indiana.
The Hoosiers, naturally, turned around and lost at home to Rutgers. Wisconsin, meanwhile, fell another game behind the Wolverines with a home loss to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were nipped at home earlier in the week by the same Purdue team that Michigan hammered a few days later. Maryland got similarly smashed by the Wolverines, then dominated Minnesota on the road.
If you're having a tough time making sense of this conference, you're not alone.
The Standings
I've added NET rankings and records versus quartile 1 and 2 opponents.
Record | NET | KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | OVR | B1G | RK | Q1 | Q2 | Nat Rk (chg) | Proj. B1G Rec. |
KP | BT | KP | BT | ||||
U-M | 13-1 | 8-1 | 3rd | 3-1 | 5-0 | 3.0 (up 2) | 15.5-4 | 7th | 7th | 6th | 8th | ||||
IOWA | 12-3 | 6-2 | 5th | 4-2 | 3-1 | 4.5 (down 1) | 13-6 | 1st | 1st | 98th | 119th | ||||
WIS | 12-4 | 6-3 | 18th | 2-2 | 6-2 | 9.0 (--) | 12.5-7.5 | 24th | 21st | 7th | 7th | ||||
ILL | 10-5 | 6-3 | 7th | 3-4 | 4-1 | 9.0 (up 4) | 11.5-7.5 | 8th | 10th | 25th | 27th | ||||
OSU | 12-4 | 6-4 | 17th | 4-4 | 3-0 | 13.0 (up 3.5) | 11.5-8 | 5th | 4th | 60th | 75th | ||||
PUR | 11-6 | 6-4 | 29th | 3-4 | 4-2 | 31.5 (down 4) | 11.5-8 | 53rd | 62nd | 26th | 26th | ||||
MIN | 11-5 | 4-5 | 41st | 4-4 | 0-1 | 30.5 (down 6.5) | 9.5-10 | 43rd | 51st | 29th | 30th | ||||
IND | 9-7 | 4-5 | 37th | 1-5 | 4-1 | 26.0 (up 6) | 9-10.5 | 39th | 49th | 27th | 24th | ||||
RUT | 8-6 | 4-6 | 56th | 3-5 | 1-1 | 40.0 (down 1.5) | 9-11 | 55th | 42nd | 39th | 46th | ||||
UMD | 9-7 | 3-6 | 34th | 3-6 | 0-1 | 45.5 (up 6) | 8-11.5 | 30th | 27th | 68th | 102nd | ||||
MSU | 8-4 | 2-4 | 87th | 0-4 | 2-0 | 48.0 (down 2) | 6.5-12 | 46th | 64th | 50th | 57th | ||||
NW | 6-8 | 3-7 | 74th | 2-7 | 0-1 | 63.5 (down 2) | 7-13 | 69th | 53rd | 80th | 76th | ||||
PSU | 5-6 | 2-5 | 40th | 1-5 | 3-1 | 40.5 (up 2) | 7.5-11 | 29th | 20th | 76th | 71st | ||||
NEB | 4-8 | 0-5 | 163rd | 0-4 | 0-2 | 108.5 (up 5) | 3-14 | 135th | 126th | 121st | 83rd |
*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.
Movement in both the standings and in the advanced rankings is becoming less drastic from week to week as teams settle in and we get more data on them. There's less divergence between KenPom and Torvik in their team and unit rankings. We also had a couple programs on pause because of COVID, which added to the static nature of the week.
Midseason-ish Awards: The Usual Categories
a Bucket™ [Campredon]
With Michigan forced into a pause, this is as good an opportunity as I'll have to hand out some midseason Big Ten awards. While these take into account play over the full course of the season, I'm putting a heavy emphasis on performance in conference games, though given the shape of the schedule this year that was probably gonna happen regardless.
Today, I'll cover the usual award categories. Later this week, I'll have another post with some less traditional fare, like Most Glorious Disaster Factory and Extreme Just A Shooter™, as well as all-conference selections. This one is dominated by the team in first place.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR: LUKA GARZA
Garza is the engine of the league's top offense by some distance. He's averaging 25 points, nine boards, and two assists in Big Ten games. He's by far the leader in the KenPom Player of the Year standings and is expected to clean up the voter-determined national player of the year awards as well.
This isn't ignoring Garza's below-average defense at the most important defensive position on the court, either. His offense is so overwhelming that he's still the easy choice. He bears one of the biggest offensive loads in the country and is still one of its most efficient players.
Unlike a lot of centers, Garza's essentially never in foul trouble, and that's not at all the case for his counterpart—he draws 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes, often swinging games by forcing opponents to defend him with their backup bigs. By avoiding foul trouble himself, Garza is able to play over 80% of the team's minutes in conference games, and that even undersells his availability because of Iowa's frequent blowout wins. His presence also opens up the arc for his sharpshooting teammates, who are making 40% of their three-pointers. He's the toughest player to gameplan against in the country.
Other contenders: Trace Jackson-Davis, Ayo Dosunmu, Trevion Williams, Hunter Dickinson, Kofi Cockburn, but this really wasn't close
[Hit THE JUMP for a lot of Michigan, I swear I wasn't trying to be a homer. Also, new tiers and this week's schedule.]
The scores from last week (home team listed second):
- Wisconsin 54, Michigan 77
- Northwestern 71, OSU 81
- Purdue 81, Indiana 69
- Wisconsin 60, Rutgers 54
- Wingate 58, Maryland 100
- Michigan 57, Minnesota 75
- OSU 87, Illinois 81
- Penn State 72, Purdue 80
- Iowa 96, Northwestern 73
Yes, Maryland played D-II Wingate because they didn't want to sit out the week when their game against Nebraska got postponed, and playing a lower-division team doesn't impact their NET ranking. It was a glorified scrimmage.
Ohio State is your big winner of the week, going 2-0 with an upset at Illinois despite losing their top two point guards. Purdue also went 2-0 with a rivalry win at Indiana. Northwestern is falling hard back to earth, losing both their games and continuing to plummet down the advanced rankings. Wisconsin ground out a 1-1 week by taking an ugly one at the RAC, while Iowa played only one game—against those flailing Wildcats—and continued their hot streak.
The Standings
Record | KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Overall | Big Ten | Nat Rk (change) | Proj. B1G Rec. | KP | Torvik | KP | Torvik | |||
IOWA | 11-2 | 6-1 | 3.5 (up 1.5) | 14.5-5.5 | 1st | 1st | 69th | 117th | |||
U-M | 11-1 | 6-1 | 5.0 (up 1.5) | 14.5-5 | 9th | 9th | 11th | 13th | |||
WIS | 11-3 | 5-2 | 9.0 (down 5) | 13.5-6.5 | 16th | 17th | 5th | 7th | |||
ILL | 9-5 | 5-3 | 13.0 (down 4.5) | 12-7.5 | 7th | 10th | 31st | 44th | |||
OSU | 11-3 | 5-3 | 16.5 (up 4.5) | 11.5-8 | 6th | 6th | 63rd | 92nd | |||
PUR | 10-5 | 5-3 | 27.5 (up 8.5) | 11.5-8 | 37th | 48th | 27th | 27th | |||
MIN | 11-4 | 4-4 | 24.0 (up 10.5) | 11-8.5 | 32nd | 35th | 29th | 36th | |||
IND | 8-6 | 3-4 | 32.0 (down 10) | 8.5-11 | 56th | 64th | 21st | 16th | |||
RUT | 7-5 | 3-5 | 38.5 (down 3) | 9-11 | 57th | 58th | 34th | 38th | |||
NW | 6-6 | 3-5 | 61.5 (down 7.5) | 7.5-12.5 | 67th | 52nd | 72nd | 67th | |||
MSU | 8-4 | 2-4 | 46.0 (up 2) | 7-12 | 46th | 60th | 48th | 52nd | |||
UMD | 8-6 | 2-5 | 51.5 (down 5) | 8-11.5 | 24th | 22nd | 86th | 125th | |||
PSU | 3-5 | 0-4 | 42.5 (down 1) | 7-12 | 29th | 20th | 83rd | 85th | |||
NEB | 4-8 | 0-5 | 113.5 (down 7.5) | 3-14.5* | 136th | 127th | 125th | 84th |
*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.
Minnesota, courtesy of that game, is your biggest mover of the week, with Indiana nearly matching them in the opposite direction. The Boilermakers also made a significant jump. Meanwhile, OSU is close to catching Illinois in both the conference standings and the fancystats, while Wisconsin is caught between those two and the very two of Iowa and Michigan.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on COVID outbreaks, a blueprint for slowing Ayo Dosumnu, the question looming over Iowa, the freakiest GIF I've ever made, and more.]
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