aj epenesa

Previously: The Offense

Resources: My charting, Iowa game notes, Iowa roster, CFBstats

There are four storylines to track with the Iowa defense this year. The first, and longest coming, is the defensive tackle depth after a backlog of DL talent caused a spate of transfers in 2016-'17, then graduated in 2018. The second is the push-pull between DC Phil Parker's beloved linebackers and the 21st century's demand that you turn one of them into a hybrid safety. The third is AJ Epenesa: what does Iowa do with a bona fide 5-star defensive end who's the size of an offensive tackle and runs like a safety? Lastly it's injuries; like Michigan the Hawkeyes got pretty banged up, particularly in their secondary depth, in the first few weeks of the season. Some of those guys are back but unable to reclaim old starting positions. Some of them are out and sorely missed.

The film: El-Assico!

Iowa State runs a similar offense to Michigan's. Also they're not MTSU, Rutgers, or Miami (NNTM). Also they fall down, miss assignments, hold a lot, and fumble. They're good at bombs and arc zone.

Also sorry about the video quality. I had a massive H.265 file that doesn't work with anything yet, and a condensed version of the game that wasn't in great resolution but, you know, worked. I used the latter whenever I could.

Personnel: My diagram: 

PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image)

Michigan's banged up and have mostly surrendered their stars for florping around all season. At least one former star is one more bad game away from cyan. Onwenu got his finally, and Collins keeps his. If you made weekly depth chart graphics you could send messages to the coaching staff too.

On the flip side, yes that's Mario's brother, Michael Ojemudia (+2/-3.5 in coverage, +2/-0 vs run), and yes he's somehow pretty decent, though I think he plays soft to make up for his general Ojemudianess. The other cornerback spot had meh/oft-injured Matt Hankins at it last year, backed up by meh Julius Brents, and now features redshirt freshman DJ Johnson (+7/-6, +2/-1), who's holding down the fort for Hankins (out) but remains ahead of Brents, who returns this week. ISU tested Johnson all day and he was mostly there on the deep stuff and not there for the first ten yards underneath.

It's a similar story with safety, where preseason projected starter Kaevon Merriweather is back but according to reports is now stuck behind FS Jack Koerner (+4/-11 coverage, +1/-0 run), who gave up most of ISU's points on a pair of EXTREME –4s, thus the cyan. SS Geno Stone (+3/-2 coverage, +3/-1 run) got to start at strong safety last year when the old SS was drafted for hybrid duty, although Stone himself looks and plays a lot like a hybrid. He also got to spend most of this day chilling while ISU ignored his side for the Koerner/Johnson one.

I was disappointed in the latest linebacker crop. MLB Kristian Welch (+4.5/-2 run, +0/-3 coverage) is decent; he's good at reading and reacting to the run and not great at playing his zone. WLB Djimon Colbert (+3/-6 run, +1/-9! coverage) was a tackling machine last year as a redshirt freshman rotation player and blitzer, but throwing coverage onto his plate seems to have short-circuited him. He is discussed more thoroughly below. After playing with an HSP last year, Parker is back to using a more traditional strongside linebacker, mostly because Nick Niemann (+0/-3, +5/-2) is too much of a throwback, thump-ya SAM for an old school guy like Parker to leave on the bench. Niemann will also play WLB over Colbert when they go to their nickel, which they don't do very often. Merriweather appears to be the guy, though there's another Niemann-esque guy in Barrington Wade they want to play.

The line is way better than the preseason whinging suggested. Both DEs, Chauncey Golston (+9.5/-4) and AJ Epenesa (+16.5/-2) played a ton last year in rotational roles; Golston had some trouble defending zone reads early but also paid off a lot of the singling he gets with Epenesa constantly demanding all extra blockers. Left DT Cedrick Lattimore (+4/-1) was the returning rotational piece who was always just some weight away from being okay, and at 295 as a senior he's there as a run stopper, though only a little dangerous as a pass rusher. Right DTs Daviyon Nixon (+2.5/-0) and Austin Schulte (+1/-1) are line of scrimmage players, solid at the type of run defense they play but don't offer any pass rush. The low numbers for the interior guys suggest Parker's plan might be to mitigate them some.

[after THE JUMP: You can mitigate DTs?]

No. I didn't mean to suggest that.

[after THE JUMP: False advertising!]

The Tipping Point?

Is Desmond Fitzpatrick the next to drop? [Fuller]

Michigan added a trio of football commits and even a basketball commit over the last few days. If you missed them, here are links to their respective Hello posts:

• Four-star 2016 IN QB Brandon Peters
• Three-star 2016 MI FB/ILB David Reese
• Three-star 2016 AL RB Kingston Davis
• 2015 German F Moritz Wagner (hoops)

Jim Harbaugh got himself a backfield in one weekend, and it's a very Harbaugh backfield: Peters is a 6'4" quarterback with decent athleticism, Davis is a load of a running back at 6'1", 230 pounds, and Reese would bring a linebacker's build and mentality to the fullback position.

Where Reese ends up is still in question; he told GBW's Kyle Bogenschutz he'll start out on defense despite reports that indicated Michigan was recruiting him at fullback, and he'll get a head start on figuring out which position he'll play ($):

“Coach Harbaugh said I could play any position and wherever my heart is at I can play. I’ll be playing linebacker. If I don’t start at linebacker I’d be open to fullback.”

“I can see myself playing anywhere on the defense,” added Reese. “Inside, outside linebacker. Just to be around that energy and I’ll be an early graduate as well.”

Peters, meanwhile, told Sam Webb he knew "a couple weeks ago" that he wanted to go to Michigan, and he's not shying away from the crowded depth chart at quarterback ($):

“I know there are a bunch of quarterbacks there right now, but that doesn’t stop me.  You’re just going to have to go there and you’re going to have to compete and earn a spot.  That’s fine with me. I love to compete.  Also at the same time, it is a special opportunity to play for Coach Harbaugh.  I think things are going to really start going in the right direction and I really want to be a part of it. I loved it there.  The atmosphere was awesome.  The fans are awesome as well.”

Peters added that he's "definitely" going to recruit other prospects, starting with in-state receivers Donnie Corley and Desmond Fitzpatrick.

Speaking of Fitzpatrick, many expected he'd join the weekend commitment party after his friend and teammate, Reese, joined the class. Those expectations grew to near-certainty when Fitzpatrick teased a major 8:00 pm announcement on Twitter yesterday.

The announcement? His dad is in a sitcom that debuts this month.

That is top-notch trolling, young Mr. Fitzpatrick. He told 247's Steve Wiltfong that he feels "really comfortable" at Michigan, but wants to be 100% sure before making a switch, so there's still a very good chance the post I may have written yesterday ends up seeing the light of day.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

Will Costello Visit? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Michigan's top target at quarterback, California four-star KJ Costello, has repeatedly stated his intention to take a trip to Ann Arbor in the near future; he's also hinted at a forthcoming decision.

Several reporters caught up with Costello at the Pylon National 7-on-7 Championship last weekend in Las Vegas, and it's unclear whether or not he'll make it to campus before a decision. The lack of clarity comes from quotes that directly contradict each other. Here's Costello talking to Scout's Greg Biggins ($):

Rancho Santa Margarita (Calif.) Santa Margarita quarterback K.J. Costello could be closing in on a decision.

"I think it will happen sometime in March," Costello said. "I don't think I'm going to take any more visits, I have a good idea what I want to do. With Stanford and USC, I was always going back and forth every other day but I'm pretty set now and it's just a matter of doing it.

Same Costello, same weekend, different reporter—247's Steve Wiltfong ($):

“I’m pretty close [to a decision]. Day in and day out I’m trying to think If I feel like I’m feeling the same way. If I’m feeling the same way four, five, seven days in a row, I’ll make my decision.”

Ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the nation’s No. 4 pro-style quarterback and No. 42 prospect overall, Costello may take one more visit.

“I’ve been talking to (Jim) Harbaugh quite a bit,” he said. “He wants to get me out there as soon as possible. I think I might head out there during the week next week, if I can find a flight. Or in two weeks.”

Costello also told GBW's Kyle Bogenschutz that he's trying to set up a visit, but his next couple weekend are booked with Elite 11 camps and he's unsure if he can miss school for a trip ($).

It doesn't look great for Costello getting to Ann Arbor before a decision. While he's been on campus before, that wouldn't be good for the chances that he'll choose Michigan over either of the in-state finalists.

If Costello drops to Stanford or USC, the quarterback picture could still gain a lot of clarity soon. Five-star WA QB Jacob Eason told Wiltfong that while Michigan is making a bigger push than any other school for him to reconsider his commitment, "something would have to go wrong with Georgia" for him to make a change ($). He's leaving the door ajar, but only just.

That leaves four-star IN QB Brandon Peters, who's slated to visit for the Spring Game. Michigan pushed to the forefront of Peters' recruitment when they offered shortly after NSD, and there's been a lot of optimism that he'll commit so long as no other quarterback takes the spot before he gets to campus. At the time, Costello seemed like a more legitimate possibility; at this point, I'd say Peters is the safer bet to end up in the class.

[Hit THE JUMP for a five-star visitor, new offers, and more.]