adam nightingale

ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW 

For the third straight year, Michigan is playing for the Big Ten Hockey Tournament championship. The last two went pretty well, so why not do it a third time? In 2022 Michigan rolled into the Twin Cities and scored four goals in the first half of the game before allowing two late goals with the net empty that briefly made it close before ultimately holding on to win. Last year they rematched with Minnesota and played a back-and-forth game that was eventually won with Dylan Duke’s third period goal. Like the last two years, Michigan is playing the B1G Regular Season Champions in the title round, but this year that champion is a new team, the Michigan State Spartans. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the preview]

Previously: Defensemen, Incoming forwards/goaltending, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers. Well, two tiers really. It's a pretty open conference this year:

Tier I: Tenuous favorites - Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State

Michigan

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota 

Last season: 1st in B1G, 29-10-1 (17-3-4), lost in National Title Game  

Key Additions: Oliver Moore, Sam Rinzel, Jimmy Clark, Max Rud, Nick Michel 

Key Losses: Logan Cooley, Matthew Knies, Jackson LaCombe, Brock Faber, Ryan Johnson

The Gophers are a case study in the volume of roster losses vs. the production of losses. Minnesota didn't lose that many players, towards the bottom of teams in the conference in sheer number of players that left the squad. However, the players they lost were massive impact pieces and you would not be wrong in arguing that Minnesota lost five of their six best players in the offseason. Which matters more, and who can fill those big shoes, will determine the trajectory of Minnesota's season. 

I generally lean more towards the side of the spectrum that argues that it's who you lost more than how many players you lost. Minnesota's losses are enormous, starting up at forward. Last season their team was built around the fact that they had arguably the best line in college hockey, Logan Cooley centering Matthew Knies and Jimmy Snuggerud. Those three players combined to score ~38% of the team's goals and ~33% of the team's points. This season they lose Cooley, who changed his mind about playing in an NHL/College Hockey arena in Arizona and signed with the Coyotes (already scored a sick goal!), and Matthew Knies, who signed with the Maple Leafs in the spring. Those two players both were finalists for the Hobey Baker, with Cooley for me being the only player in college hockey who had a case for the award besides Adam Fantilli. He was ridiculously good and Knies was so essential in making that line work via his puck recovery skills, dominance around the net, and defensive detail. 

[Bill Rapai]

Losing players of that caliber is not easy, even if Jimmy Snuggerud returns. I like Snuggerud quite a bit, but I felt that he was the third piece of that line. If he can replicate his 21 goals and 50 points with new linemates, more power to him and I will be impressed. But I need to see it. In terms of recruits, Minnesota slides in Oliver Moore, 1st round pick of Chicago, at center. I like Moore, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the same caliber of prospect as Logan Cooley. 7th round pick Jimmy Clark should help the depth scoring but what Minnesota needs is for the rest of the roster to step up and replace the firepower they lost. Better seasons from the likes of Connor Kurth and Brody Lamb, in addition to Bryce Brodzinski pouring in 19 goals again, would definitely help. 

The other element that made Minnesota so great last season was their four horsemen on defense, upperclassmen defensemen who gobbled tough minutes and controlled the game, tilting the ice towards Minnesota on every shift. Three of those four are now gone, with only Mike Koster returning. Sam Rinzel, 1st round pick, will help, but he cannot replace the seniority and the experience of those departed defenders. This is still a very talented blue line, Rinzel, Ryan Chesley, Luke Mittelstadt, but those three players are all underclassmen. There will be a drop-off in the manner in which the Gophers can dominate the games and protect Justen Close, a goalie who has thrived in the system but has had his wobbles against higher quality shots (and shooters). 

I do expect this Minnesota team to be good, which is why I have them in the top group. They still have a ton of talent, they still have Bob Motzko as their coach, and enough players return to guarantee some level of continuity. But I don't anticipate this to be anywhere near as dominant of a team, too much talent leaving the roster and crucially, too much experience. While Minnesota has been such a consistent team night-in and night-out over the last two seasons, I foresee a bit more of a spottier team, one with the choppiness that Michigan typically has that comes with a more freshman/sophomore heavy roster. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the other five teams + predictions]

Previously: Freshmen forwards, returning forwards, season preview HockeyCast, defense/goalies

Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers: 

Tier I: The Contenders - Minnesota, Michigan, and Notre Dame 

Michigan 

Not going to go in depth because that's what the other preview articles were supposed to do. 

Minnesota

Last season: 1st in B1G, 24-11-4 (17-4-3), lost in Frozen Four 

Key Additions: Logan Cooley, Jimmy Snuggerud, Ryan Chesley, Brody Lamb, Connor Kurth, Luke Mittelstadt

Key Losses: Ben Meyers, Blake McLaughlin, Sammy Walker, Chaz Lucius, Tristan Broz, Ben Brinkman 

Minnesota was close to Michigan's equal last season, finishing ahead of the Wolverines in the standings, though Michigan did beat Minnesota for the B1G Tournament title and won the season series. Both teams met the same fate in the end, losing in the Frozen Four, the Gophers to Minnesota State and Michigan to Denver. Minnesota had a bit of an odd offseason, stomaching huge losses on offense but rolling over the entirety of a very good defense laden with NHL talent. Ryan Johnson, Jackson LaCombe, and Brock Faber all have a shot to play in the NHL and are the strength of this team. 

The college hockey blogosphere is coronating Minnesota, earning the #1 ranking in CHN's preseason power rankings. I am a bit more skeptical of the Gophers, placing them in the same tier as Notre Dame and Michigan and refusing to name them outright favorites for the conference. The reason is the sizable turnover on offense, as well as questions I still have in net. As for the offense, I'm a bit confused why Michigan's offensive losses have been emphasized by neutral observers but Minnesota's have not... Gophers lost a ton! Ben Meyers was an awesome player, the alleged best skater in college hockey, while McLaughlin and Walker were important complementary scorers. Likewise, the departure after just one season of the talented Chaz Lucius (signed in pros) and Tristan Broz (transferred to Denver) means Minnesota will have to lean on freshman more than you'd like. 

To be clear, the freshmen that they add are projected to be studs. Logan Cooley went 3rd overall in the 2022 Draft and he should be a star right away. Jimmy Snuggerud went in the first round as well, while Brody Lamb and Connor Kurth were also drafted. Minnesota's offense should be fine, but we'll see how long it takes for the forwards to gel. The return of star Matthew Knies, who scored 15 goals and 33 points in as many games, will help usher the likes of Cooley and Snuggerud into college hockey. 

Defensively, the return of such a veteran group of blueliners sets the team up for success. Adding 2nd round pick Ryan Chesley to that mix is pretty nice too. They will make life easier on goaltender Justen Close, who is my other question mark. Close was thrust into duty last season when starter Jack LaFontaine exited the program to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes. Expectations were very low for a seldom-used player without a flashy recruiting profile but Close balled out in the half-season he played, posting close to a .930 SV% and leading Minnesota to Boston. If that Close is the real deal, then Minnesota will be a great team. I just need to see him do it for a little longer for me to believe that's the real Justen Close, because he has fewer than 20 career NCAA games at that level of play. 

Overall, I will save some of my comparison between Minnesota and Michigan for the end of the article, but the Gophers should be a very good team, top ten in the country. Their raw talent and experience on defense will take them a long way. Whether they win the B1G and find themselves in contention for the #1 overall seed comes down to if Close can hold up as a star goalie and how long it takes for the offensive pieces to gel. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: An annoying foe, mediocre teams, and a rebuild]