2022 frozen four

ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW

The final weekend of the college hockey season is here and Michigan is still standing. The Wolverines made it through the testy Allentown Regional and booked their tickets to the Frozen Four, where they will meet the winners of the Loveland Regional, the Denver Pioneers. Two #1 seeds meet in the first of two semifinal games tonight at the TD Garden in Boston, and it figures to be an explosive battle of two high-powered offenses. 

[David Wilcomes]

THE US 

Michigan arrives in Boston after a healthy layoff following the heart-stopping Quinnipiac game in the regional final. The Wolverines have plenty to work on after a leaky defensive effort against the Bobcats, and I'm wondering whether the defensive pairings change tonight. The Nick Blankenburg-Ethan Edwards duo in particular looked very rough in that game, and we shall see if Mel Pearson decides to go back to the Owen Power-Blankenburg top pair, or if he sticks with this configuration. I'd expect the forward lines to stay the same, the Brisson/Beniers/Johnson line at the top, followed by the Bordeleau line, the Beecher line, and then the GVW line. When you score 12 goals in two NCAA Tournament games, it likely means the forwards aren't changing. 

Erik Portillo will get the start, as has been the case in every game this season. His numbers took a bit of a hit after giving up seven total goals in the two games a couple weekends ago, but anyone who watched those games knows it was far from his fault. He has been excellent this season and is arguably Michigan's biggest advantage over the Pioneers. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Meet the Pioneers]

Michigan is heading to Boston for it's NCAA-leading 26th Frozen Four, hoping to add to its NCAA-leading nine National Champions banners. Since I started closely following Michigan Hockey back in my freshman year of 2003-04, the Wolverines have made it to the final weekend just three times. In April 2008, Michigan was the best team in the country, flying through the CCHA and Albany Regional, led by Hobey Baker winner Kevin Porter and his winger Chad Kolarik. Everything Porter touched that season turned to goals. Unfortunately, Billy Sauer never really got the hang of playing at the Pepsi Center and the best team in the country came up a little short in OT to (surprise) Notre Dame. 

A few years later in 2011 a scrappy group of seniors led by Carl Hagelin, Matt Rust, and Louie Caporusso...not to mention Mighty Mite Super Goalie Shawn Hunwick...fought and clawed their way to St Paul through a two goal deficit and overtime winner again Nebraska-Omaha and then held on in a tight nail-biter against Colorado College. Shawn Hunwick earned the nickname "Tiny Jesus" for his 40,000 save, 2-0 shutout performance against behemoth super giant North Dakota, giving Michigan their first shot at a National Championship since 1998. Unfortunately, the Wolverines spent most of that game in the penalty box after using their legs just to make it to Saturday night. Goals from Bottom Six forwards Ben Winnett and Jeff Rohrkemper were not enough as the Wolverines experienced the beginnings of the Overtime Dark Arts of Minnesota-Duluth.

In the spring of 2018, Mel Pearson took his inaugural team back to St Paul after a late season run gained Michigan a tournament selection in Massachusetts. Cooper Marody, Josh Norris, and Quinn Hughes led the Wolverines through home state heroes Northeastern and Boston University. The roller coaster ride of Hayden Lavigne dipped against old Frozen Four foe Notre Dame, as Michigan blew a two goal lead and lost in the waning seconds of regulation. ​While that team was fun at times, they got hot at the right time, but were probably never good enough to win it all.

Now here we are, not too dissimilar to 2008. Michigan is the #1 overall seed, dripping with speed, skill, and future NHL stars. They beat their Automatic Qualifier Reward of AIC. They crushed...and then outlasted...the fiesty, experienced Quinnipiac Bobcats to give themselves a chance to go for glory. There are no lay-ups, cream puffs, or look-aheads. Just chalk. But as they say..."To be the best, you have to beat the best." Whomever does that next Saturday night...will have surely earned it.

[David Wilcomes]

The Four in Boston

(1) Michigan, (1) Minnesota State, (2) Minnesota, (1) Denver: The knock on this tournament is the randomness of single-elimination hockey...and lack of butts in seats in neutral arenas. That was not and will not be the case this weekend. If you could hand-pick four teams to battle it out for the national championship...it would be these four (sorry, not sorry Western Michigan).

• Michigan is...well, Michigan. Locked and loaded with no real weaknesses, except the fact that anything can happen in 60 minutes of hockey. In any length series, they win. Against anyone. Book it. (But we'll never truly know because why do anything that makes sense?).
• They play Denver. Who is basically Michigan. Their non-con schedule was not quite as good, but maybe their conference schedule was stronger? They're talented, fast, and explosive. Sounds familiar.
• Minnesota State is also almost untouchable. In fact, since Michigan beat them back in October (when Michigan Football was just 6-0 and no one had danced in the snow of November 27th or the confetti of December 4th) the Screaming Eagles have lost just *three* times. Wut. Their numbers are incredible. They have no weaknesses, just maybe not quite the elite talent of the three other teams. Still, they may be the toughest out of all.
• Their opponent is a team the Wolverines have seen five times, Minnesota. Yikes. Despite all of Michigan's success, it was Minnesota who won the Big Ten regular season– despite losing their starting 12th year starter in net– and sending multiple players to the Olympics. Have I mentioned they also beat Michigan twice? The Gophers can skate, score, and defend with Michigan and are getting surprisingly stellar goaltending from Justen Close. There will be no surprise national champion in 2022.

(1) Michigan vs (1) Denver

[Zoey Holmstrom]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Denver (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Thursday):

1. Take Shots. This seems obvious and unnecessary to reiterate, but it probably is the one slight difference between these two teams. Magnus Chrona hasn't been poor, but he has been susceptible to an eye-roller or two. For all of Erik Portillo's blood pressure raising wanderings, he's been very solid in the crease, not giving up many terrible goals. In a game that seems like it will feature wide open offense, Michigan should have the slight advantage in net. Get as many pucks on net, and see if you can steal a bad goal or two. That could be the difference.

2.  Don't Take A Major. This will be a thing until this year ends. Could it be negated by not having to deal with Big Ten referees? Possibly, but enough of those were also on the players. We've reached the point in the tournament where everyone is going to have a dangerous power play and you cannot spend 1/12 of the game defending an All-You-Can-Eat power play. Michigan hasn't committed a major power play in post-season hockey, so I don't think it will be a problem... but still!! Don't do it!

3. Don't Stop. No lead is safe. Both of these teams are firewagons and can rally from deep deficits. All gas, no brakes. I expect this game to open up, and away we'll go. This has the feel of the team with the puck last (or the goalie who makes the crazier saves) will win. Good for hockey, television rating, and neutrals... not for blood pressure and ulcers!

Final Thoughts: This is going to be fun. It would be better if it were a series, though. Both teams are basically mirror images of each other. They want to attack, shoot, score...and do it again. Then, they want to throw their defensemen into the fray and shoot and score even more. Michigan may have a slight advantage on special teams and in net. Has Portillo given up 10 bad goals this year? Denver is weirdly maybe a tad deeper (lolwut) in scoring depth. Denver wants to try to tie Michigan for total title banners; Michigan wants to extend their breathing room over the Pioneers. In the end, Portillo outshines Chrona, and Michigan wins a barn-burner.

Alex's Take: I like Michigan's chances in this one, but predictions for these sorts of games are mostly meaningless. Denver presents an extremely interesting challenge as a team who can pressure Michigan with their forecheck, and they've got skill that very few other teams have. If Erik Portillo isn't on his game, the Pioneers can shovel in goals. But the same could be said the other way around. Two teams that want to play a high scoring game, but in that context, I take the team with the better goalie and the one with (at the end of the day), more talented players. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The game that doesn't involve Michigan]

3/25/2022 – Michigan 5, American International 3 – 30-9-1  

3/27/2022 – Michigan 7, Quinnipiac 4 – 31-9-1, Frozen Four

The NCAA Hockey Tournament is one of the more absurd exercises on earth, distilling a sport that is highly random and variable on a game-to-game level into exactly that: a series of single games where everything is on the line. In terms of setting out to crown the "best" team, it falls far short of that aim, generally recognizing champions who were more lucky than good, although every team in the tournament is good. It's just that each game often hinges on a whim, a lightning bolt moment of chance decided by the margin of a few inches. We saw that twice this weekend in games Michigan was not involved in. Western Michigan defeated Northeastern after the puck crossed the goal line by the tiniest of margins before being swatted out by goaltender Devon Levi: 

Devon Levi turns the puck over behind the Northeastern goal, and Luke Grainger makes him pay with the overtime winning goal.@WMUHockey advances to the regional final. pic.twitter.com/YgJLJsxdTV

— J.D. Burke (@JDylanBurke) March 25, 2022

Denver and Duluth were playing an incredibly intense game on Saturday that was decided by a bounce for the ages off the end boards, slingshotting back off Duluth's goalie Ryan Fanti, and laying free for the taking of Carter Savoie in the crease: 

Goal No 22 for Carter Savoie & the Pios are up. pic.twitter.com/6X1iP11Ioe

— Denver Hockey (@DU_Hockey) March 26, 2022

Just like that, #5 Minnesota-Duluth had their terrific season ended because of an unlucky bounce. 

The NHL has set up their playoff structure so that the teams play four rounds of best four-out-of-seven series to determine a champion. It is not perfect, and sometimes randomness still reigns supreme, but that structure is designed to weed out as much of the inherent randomness to hockey as possible. The NCAA Tournament does the exact opposite, reducing games to dice rolls, where one mistake or one bad bounce can end a season and render the preceding forty games of work meaningless. To win the NCAA Tournament is the equivalent of an NHL team winning the first game of each of the four series they play in the playoffs, something that hasn't happened since 2013. 

Michigan has felt the cruel knife of the NCAA Tournament before. A catastrophic collapse against Colorado College in 2005 ended the season of a 30-7-3 Michigan team that had dominated the CCHA in the regular season. A stunning shutout at the hands of Air Force in the first round eliminated a one seed Michigan team back in 2009. A controversial no-goal call in OT against Miami (OH) in 2010 cost Michigan a chance to play in the Frozen Four in Detroit. And a loss to Cornell in OT of the first round as the second overall seed ended Michigan's 2012 season and the career of Shawn Hunwick.

[David Wilcomes]

The Wolverines rode into this tournament as the top overall seed with their dream team roster and the best chance to end the national title drought in fourteen years. I picked Michigan to advance out of the regional, as did David, and all of College Hockey News' experts. They had a favorable draw and were playing good hockey. But in the back of your head you knew there was a chance that disaster could strike. This is the NCAA Tournament, it's happened before, it could happen again. 

It didn't happen this weekend, but it felt like it could. Michigan fans got visions of 2005 amid a disastrous third period that saw Quinnipiac score three times in ten minutes to trim the seemingly insurmountable lead to one goal. Everything this team had worked for over the course of 40 games dangled in the balance, as Michigan clung to a rope for dear life, feeling angry Bobcats nipping at their toes. The dark clouds converged... and then they abated. A lifeline emerged from the Quinnipiac coaching staff and Michigan climbed that rope to safety as Michael Pastujov hit the empty net from just outside the faceoff circle.

It was not pretty, but it doesn't have to be. In this insane tournament that haunts college hockey fanbases each March, you get no style points for winning in a non-heart attack-inducing manner. You do whatever it takes to move on to the next round, because your season is on the line every game, and in every second of every game. In an event where a bad bounce can ruin your season, you never, ever take NCAA Tournament wins for granted. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More narrative & HockeyBullets]