2022-23 wisconsin #2

1 hour and 8 minutes

The Sponsors

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1. Men's Basketball vs Wisconsin

starts at 1:00

Not firmly in the tournament but firmly on the bubble. Brian talks through the various scenarios that would work to get into the tournament. Who else got flashbacks during the Wisconsin banked 3?? Dug McDaniel hasn't quite turned the corner yet (he has the worst shooting at the rim of anyone in college basketball) but he also had consecutive Kenpom MVP performances. Able to keep winning without Jett, thankfully. Still just feels like they're a player short of being a top 20 Kenpom team. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

Michigan's season was hanging in the balance. There were under three seconds remaining and Wisconsin, who had owned the preceding thirty seconds, led 68-65. Michigan was in-bounding from the baseline under Wisconsin's basket following a swatted three pointer, with no timeouts to draw anything up. Terrance Williams II struggled to find an open outlet, instead leaping to hurl a ball that only 7'1" Hunter Dickinson could snatch out on the perimeter. Dickinson barely snared possession over the contest from a Badger, dribbled it once, turned his body towards the basket, and hurled a shot around a potential block from Wisconsin's Max Klesmit. 12,707 fans inside Crisler Center in Ann Arbor stood on their feet as the desperate prayer arced in the air on a rainbow trajectory. A Michigan win, only possible in OT if the shot went down, would keep Michigan's NCAA Tournament hopes alive one more week. Miss that shot and those tournament hopes would likely be buried ten feet under. 

The ball hurtled towards the basket. The horn signifying the expiration of regulation time blared and the backboard lit up in red. And then in the blink of an eye, a collective prayer answered from the Wolverine faithful, Dickinson's heave swished through the hoop. Crisler Center exploded into utter pandemonium, though the game wasn't over. Michigan had tied it, and overtime would be needed. After a seesaw first three minutes of overtime, Michigan put the clamps on Wisconsin defensively and hit shots with ruthless efficiency, building a lead and salting the game away at the free throw line. When it was all said and done, Dickinson's shot for the ages had saved Michigan's season, or at least let it live another week. The Wolverines won a must-win game over Wisconsin 87-79, moved into a tie for 2nd in the conference, and inched slightly closer to the NCAA Tournament picture. It's not quite March, but the madness is well underway. 

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[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The first half of the game did not adequately foreshadow what was to follow. Wisconsin started hot, scoring 17 points in the first 7.5 minutes of action as the Wolverines got off to their second consecutive sleepy start. The offensive rebounding issues that did Michigan in against Wisconsin in Madison a couple weeks back reared their head early on, as the Badgers extended possessions and did damage. Around the halfway mark, trailing at one point 17-9, the Maize & Blue picked it up. They went on a 26-10 run to close and the central story was Hunter Dickinson, who had one of his best halves of basketball all season. He engineered a personal 6-0 run at one point to give Michigan the lead and scored 12 points in the first half, 5/7 from the floor, four rebounds, two assists (one of which a beautiful pass to set up a Dug McDaniel three), and just one turnover. 

The dominance of Dickinson was much needed for the Wolverines, who were missing Jett Howard yet again, his second consecutive missed game and third consequential one of the season. They also started Will Tschetter at the four again, though Terrance Williams II came off the bench and logged more minutes than Tschetter. Kobe Bufkin was the other strong performer in the first half, with 10 points of his own to boost Michigan into the break with a 35-27 lead. They'd held Wisconsin to just 10 points over the final 12.5 minutes of play, including a nearly nine minute stretch where the Badgers made one bucket(!) and were clearly the stronger team in the opening twenty. 

Unfortunately, much of the recipe that led to the dominance of Michigan in the first half went off the rails for a large stretch of the second half. Wisconsin was able to take Dickinson out of the picture for the majority of the half, holding him to just two points over the first 17.5 minutes of play, forcing the Wolverines to lean even more heavily on Bufkin. Which, to Bufkin's credit, resulted in #2 rising to the occasion and playing one of the best halves of his Michigan career. But it wasn't enough to put Wisconsin away, with turnovers bogging down the offense outside of Bufkin, and the Badgers clawed their way back thanks to the efforts of Connor Essegian. The freshman was unconscious in the second half, 16 points on 7/11 from the floor, a childhood Wolverines fan playing in Crisler Center for he first time. Essgian was out for blood and Steven Crowl's layup with 7:30 left gave Wisconsin their first lead since midway through the first half, 53-52. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

From that point forward it was an entertaining, back and forth affair. Bufkin made a driving layup and swished a three to put Michigan up 57-55, but Wisconsin had an answer every time. Tarris Reed had free throws coming but a shoulder injury on the play forced Joey Baker to shoot them, a tradeoff Michigan was very content with. Baker made them both to put Michigan ahead 59-57, but Essegian tied it only a couple possessions later, leaving the score tied with 3:15 left. Wisconsin took the lead on a Klesmit driving layup before Hunter Dickinson finally got himself back in rhythm with a hook shot to even it up at 61 all. Wisconsin was out of answers on their next offensive possession when Klesmit heaved up a three at the shot clock expiration and it banked in off the backboard while the Crisler faithful all looked skyward in disbelief. 

Michigan kept plugging away, eventually getting Dickinson to the line where he made both free throws to trim the lead to 64-63 with 1:19 remaining. Reed's good defense on a Tyler Wahl drive to the rack gave Michigan possession with a chance to take the lead and a perfect baseline jumper by Bufkin gave them that lead, 65-64 with only 30.3 remaining. A perfect floater from Essegian gave Wisconsin the lead and Bufkin's layup attempt was blocked (there was some debate if a foul should've been called) by Klesmit, rebounded down and Kamari McGee was fouled. McGee made them both to put Wisconsin ahead by three, 68-65. Michigan, now out of timeouts, came up the floor and found Bufkin in the corner. He was open at first, but Klesmit closed out in excellent fashion and swatted the ball out of bounds. That's when the story of the game begins to intersect with the moment discussed in the opening, with Dickinson's miracle shot at the horn being the next play sequentially. 

With the game now tied and headed to OT at 68-68, momentum was squarely on Michigan's side. Crisler Center was bubbling with an energy seldom seen this season, but Wisconsin wasn't quite ready to go away. They got the opening points of the OT session and it remained a back-and-forth contest. Every score by one team was answered by the other, a Joey Baker three being followed by a Klesmit three, which in turn was followed by a Bufkin converted and-one. The score sat 76-75 with 2:14 to go and it seemed as if we were headed for another high pressure sequence, but that's when Michigan decided the game was over. 

Wisconsin missed a three, Michigan rebounded it down, came up the floor, and fed Dickinson. HD's hook went down to make it 78-75, forcing Greg Gard to call timeout. An out-of-rhythm Wisconsin possession ended with an off-balance Essegian three that glanced off the iron and Michigan followed it up with a Dug McDaniel floater, giving Michigan the first two possession lead of OT for either team. Wisconsin would end up getting two three point attempts on the next possession, enabled by an OREB, but neither went down and you could see the energy draining from the Badger bench. Michigan snared the rebound after the second miss and Dug McDaniel was fouled with 39.2 left. He made them both, putting the lead at 82-75, and once Wisconsin turned it over on their next possession, that was game. The Wolverines had survived and the trajectory of their season was altered too. 

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[Marc Gregor Campredon]

The final box score indicates a game that was a pure coinflip, one that Michigan was able to win. The Wolverines shot 49% from the floor compared to 43% from Wisconsin, while the teams were close to even from three (Wisconsin 8/23, Michigan 7/21). Both teams were highly efficient on their free throws but Michigan made 22 to Wisconsin's 11, obviously exacerbated by score effects in overtime. Michigan committed twelve turnovers to Wisconsin's eight, which was a factor in the second half, while offensive rebounds were close to even. Michigan fixed the DREB problem compared to the first five minutes, but nine allowed to a dreadful OREB team in Wisconsin was still probably more than Juwan Howard would've liked. 

The heroes for Michigan were pretty obvious, the three player trio of Dickinson, Bufkin, and McDaniel. Dickinson has the defining moment of the game and he was sharp with 23 points, but most of his damage was in the first half. The MVP for Michigan was no doubt Bufkin, whose 28 points on 10/21 from the floor was vital to victory. He took the offense by the horns in the second half, the go-to guy without question and also added eight boards while logging an exhausting 42 minutes. As for McDaniel, he didn't have a major on-ball passing role (zero assists!), but Dug shot 2/4 from three and was an acceptable 4/8 from two. Michigan didn't get a ton outside of these three but a couple triples from Baker and strong defense around the rim from Reed deserve mention. 

As for Wisconsin, they used the tandem of Essegian and Klesmit to power their offense. Essegian finished with 24 points on 10/21 from the floor, while Klesmit added 19 of his own and had several massive blocks late. Those two were the likely heroes had Dickinson's three not gone down and Wisconsin had emerged as the victors. Chucky Hepburn added only four points for Wisconsin, leaving the game in the second half with an injury. 

Michigan is now 17-12 on the season and 11-7 in the B1G. That conference mark pulls them into a tie for second place with Maryland, Indiana, and Northwestern, two games back of first place Purdue. If the Big Ten Tournament started today, Michigan would be the 3rd seed, owning the second best-record (3-2) against the other tied teams in that quartet (Maryland would be 2nd with a 3-1 in-group record). Michigan finishes up the regular season this week with two road games, against Illinois on Thursday night and Indiana on Sunday afternoon. One win in those two games is likely needed to shore up Michigan's bubble position going into the BTT, as well as to give the Maize & Blue a top four seed in the BTT and thus the vaunted double bye. That Thursday game is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on ESPN. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan's on another February tear. They are now 5-2, the #1 team in the conference, and #11 team in the country to Torvik since they checked on the groundhog. Michigan is also coming off their biggest win of the season, a 13-grit sandpaper affair at the RAC. As is often the case, freshman progression has been the difference. Dug McDaniel has become a defensive pest instead of a liability, has found his range on jumpers, and has reduced his turnover rate to ~1/game instead of ~3. Tarris Reed is turning into a switchable four; if we had any way to get a Hoop Lens account back I would show the two-bigs lineup has been Michigan's best look all year. Your eyes will have to suffice.

As a result a team left for dead a month ago is now squarely on the bubble, needing two wins in their last three games to enter the Big Ten Tournament with a foot in the NCAA. Two of those games are at #27 Illinois, and at #25 Indiana, who beat Michigan by a point at Crisler on February 11th. Avenging their other February loss on Senior Night would be a much easier path than trying to two-up their performance in Piscataway.

Missing Terrance Williams II, Michigan played terribly in Madison, allowing a Badger team that rarely rebounds its misses an extra 15 possessions off the offensive glass. Jett Howard was responsible for a lot of those breakdowns, but 26 minutes of Will Tschetter did as much to doom them as the atrocious-even-by-Trohl-standards officiating. Michigan beat MSU with an increase in minutes for Tarris Reed, and got back a hobbled Williams last night, but was without Howard, who remains questionable for Sunday.

Wisconsin played just as badly, and are coming off another Trohl job where the visiting Hawkeyes shot 3/28(!!!) from three. The Badgers have just four other wins in 2023: two vs Penn State, one over a nosediving OSU, and a 63-60 homer over Minnesota that's the reason people who follow Gopher fans now know the Badgers since 2016 are 23-8 when they get Larry Scirotto in Big Ten games, and 69-51 when they don't.

Their tournament resume is built on OT victories at Marquette, Iowa, and Penn State, a win over USC, and a 43-42 "victory" versus Dayton. A 1-2 finish versus Michigan, Purdue, and Minnesota, and a first-round BTT exit could conceivably leave the Badgers on the bubble. If you can't summon it for this Michigan team, I ask you, as a basketball fan, what would you give for a Wisconsinless postseason?

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Dug's banana has been changed to a lunch pail; if his ORtg gets over 100 we'll drop the cyan, but there's a lot about his spray chart that might not be sustainable.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Gilmore now has his brick.