2022-23 northwestern #2

1 hour and 12 minutes

The Sponsors

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1. Men's Basketball vs Ohio State

starts at 1:00

Bruce Thornton tha midrange god went off, but had to because Michigan kept them away from the rim. Okpara vs Dickinson was devastation. Hunter's defense so much better. Getting back in transition. OSU got no turnovers and no assists—also got *EVERY* loose ball. Jett is starting to understand the offense better, still leaves the corner open when they zone. Szelc T's up Saddi for saying "Bullshit."

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

Michigan overcame a dreadful half of basketball from both teams to surge to a surprisingly comfortable 68-51 win over Northwestern in Evanston to get back in the winning column. Kobe Bufkin threatened for a triple double with 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists as Michigan assisted on 21 of 24 made baskets. Hunter Dickinson scored 19 and Joey Baker chipped in 14 off the bench as the Maize & Blue got their 6th win in B1G play to get back over .500 in the conference. 

The first half was a terrible display of offensive basketball from both teams, missing open shots and lacking any semblance of offensive rhythm. The score sat at 1-0 Northwestern for the first 2.5 minutes of the contest and it proved to be an ominous marker for what would follow. Michigan shot 9/31 from the field and Northwestern was only a tiny bit better at 9/26. Each team made three threes and neither shot over 75% from the free throw line. Turnovers were low for both sides, but that couldn't rectify the parade of missed shots. Hunter Dickinson had a small groove with a dreamshake-like bucket, but otherwise finished 3/8. Kobe Bufkin hit a three and a long two and led the team with 10 rebounds, but overall shot 2/6 from the floor.

Juwan Howard dabbled in strange lineups, running out a Tarris Reed/Youssef Khayat/Jace Howard/Joey Baker/Kobe Bufkin look for an extended period of time. Khayat played for the first time since New Year's Day and the first time in meaningful minutes since mid-December, but he finished with no points in the first half (missed two threes). It wasn't much better for Northwestern, who got 11 points from Boo Buie but no one else scored more than 4 points, and Buie accounted for all the made threes for the Wildcat side. Most distressing for the home faithful was Chase Audige's grim 0/9 shooting performance. It was brutal from a watchability standpoint, but Michigan led 26-25. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The second half proved to be more of the same for Northwestern, while Michigan emerged from its funk to ignite on the offensive end. At first it seemed promising for Northwestern, with Audige quickly snapping his disaster factory first half, knocking down a pull up on the first possession of the second half and swiping the ball to set up Ty Berry for a layup that gave Northwestern a four point lead a minute in. After that, it was all Wolverines. They stitched together a 12-0 run, Hunter Dickinson kicking it off with a pair of free throws and a jumper, followed by fast-break points from Kobe Bufkin and then an acrobatic three pointer by Joey Baker that drew a foul. Baker hit the free throw and then drilled a jumper on the next possession to make it 38-29 Wolverines. 

That represented the first sizable lead by either team in the game and Michigan's offense was only in the process of opening up. When points started to come from other sources, like a Terrance Williams II three, or laser-precise passing between Dug McDaniel and Kobe Bufkin to set up a Hunter Dickinson and-one, you knew the machine was humming. The Williams trey made it 44-31, but despite a quick 'Cats score, Michigan kept building on the lead. Kobe Bufkin sliced to the lane for a layup and Michigan led 48-33 with 11:24 remaining. 

Northwestern had no answer. After that four point surge in the opening minute, it took them eleven minutes to score eight points. Michigan provided largely effective defense, yes, but Northwestern's shooting display was abysmal. Shots glanced off the back board, the front iron, just about every way you could miss. Michigan, to their credit, kept pushing on offense and put the game away early, never giving Northwestern the opportunity to claw back. Joey Baker pump faked into a made three to put Michigan up 16 and then Kobe Bufkin stripped Buie and threw it down at the other end. Then, with 5:20 left, Jett Howard, who was having an off-night, swished a three. 60-41 Michigan. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The remaining minutes were performative, Michigan doing well to break down the trap and Northwestern doing nothing to turn it on offensively. The final seconds ran out and the ultimate score was 68-51 in favor of the visittors. After two disappointing losses last week to Penn State and Purdue, Michigan was back in the winning column. 

Despite my apocalyptic summary of the first half box score, the final box score was much cleaner... for one team. Northwestern  shot 37.5% from the floor (21/56) and 15.8% from three (3/19), getting 23 from Buie and no one else above 10 points. Yeah, ugly. But Michigan? A much prettier picture. Bufkin and Dickinson led the team in scoring, Kobe excellent all around while Hunter scored 19 on a rather inefficient 7/16 from the floor. For me the highlight was Joey Baker, who might have played his best game as a Wolverine, scoring 14 on 5/6 from the field and 3/4 from three, helping stomach a dismal outing from Jett Howard. 

Michigan is now 12-10 on the season overall and 6-5 in the B1G, tied with Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa, and Michigan State in a pile up in the middle of the league. They now have an opportunity to string some wins together with a favorable home schedule upcoming, starting with the struggling Ohio State Buckeyes at Crisler on Sunday. That game is scheduled for 1:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on CBS. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#66 Michigan (11-10) at #52 Northwestern (15-6)	ROWR!
WHERE	Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, IL
WHEN	7:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: NW-5 Torvik: NW-6
TELEVISION	ESPN2

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan has already replayed three of its four most respectable wins of this season. The 90-75 romp in Minnesota became a sleepy, too-close 60-56 Sunday in Crisler. Blowouts at home over Maryland (81-46) and Penn State (79-69) were flipped into indefensible 64-58 and 83-61 road embarrassments. The Torvik Game Score margins in those three replays (out of 100): –50, –43, and –74.

Due to the nature of road basketball, Michigan arrives in Evanston as even bigger dogs than they were against #1 Purdue at home. Their 85-78 victory a few weeks ago proves they can come away from this one with a sweep and their first Q1 victory of the season. They also could very well ruin the last good thing from their Big Ten season.

That was the game where Jett couldn't miss from three (or make from two), Chase Audige was held to 3/14 from the floor, and 7-foot rim protector Matthew Nicholson was outrebounded by Tarris Reed. There was a stretch of a gazillion turnovers and some strikingly efficient minutes from the gumps on Northwestern's bench in the first half, but if you told me one of these teams would come into the second meeting among the AP poll's "others receiving votes"…well, I'd have still said Northwestern because their next three games were Wisconsin, Minnesota, and at Nebraska.

The Wildcats did get Iowa'd at Carver-Hawkeye on Tuesday, so they're also a little tired. Keeping Jett hot remains the key keeping up with Northwestern's RNG-based offense, and avoiding yet another sloppy second.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Michigan got Jett Howard back, though even he couldn't keep up with Penn State pooping out 83 points on 63 shot equivalents.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Note that Northwestern is the other team that benefits from MSU-like assist rate inflation at home; knock about 30% off of those assist rates to get something more comparable to the charts you normally see.

Julian Roper II has missed Northwestern's last three games with an ankle injury. The prediction when it happened was he'd be back for Iowa on Tuesday or Michigan on Thursday, but as of Tuesday even a Thursday return seemed a bit dubious. Brooks Barnhizer has been filling in. Grow-a-stretch true freshman C Luke Hunger wasn't going to factor much.

The only other difference in the team sheet is I've downgraded Northwestern's defense to this guy (Memo) from this guy (Data) because their defensive efficiency has actually fallen below their offensive efficiency.

[After THE JUMP: Still them.]