2021-22 iowa #1

Sometimes it's not how you finish, but how you play for the first 36.5 minutes. Michigan played a very strong game and seemed to have a solid Iowa team in a vice grip on the road with a shade over three minutes to go in the contest. They led 78-66 and just needed one or two makes and a stop or two. They got next to none of that equation, and replicated the performance of a crashing blimp in nearly blowing the lead over the fading few minutes. But just enough makes from DeVante' Jones at the line and two Iowa misses from three with chances to tie in the final ten seconds helped Michigan survive. Just like last week's game in State College, it didn't look pretty, but it ends up in the win column all the same... and this one ends up in the Q1 bucket on the tournament resume too. 

We expected an offensive showcase between two teams who entered with top 25 offenses AND defenses outside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency, and that is exactly how the game started. Iowa shoveled in 14 points in the first four minutes, before Michigan went on a quick 11-0 run to make it 21-14 only seven minutes in. The only stops either team were getting were of the turnover variety, with Michigan forcing a few that DeVante' Jones turned into dunks for Moussa Diabate and Caleb Houstan off nice skip passes. 

Kobe Bufkin was a pleasant surprise off the bench [Campredon]

Iowa responded to Michigan's quick outburst with a 13-2 run of their own as Michigan's offense sputtered with Hunter Dickinson off the floor and Frankie Collins running the offense. An ugly near-airball three from Collins during this stretch was a low point of his night. Dickinson was off the floor due to foul trouble, which became a notable storyline in the first half and it would continue throughout the night. All three typical Michigan bigs, Dickinson, Diabate, and Brandon Johns Jr., picked up two fouls in the first half, which meant Jaron Faulds made a rare appearance (his attempts at guarding Keegan Murray left a lot to be desired). The inconsistency in refereeing crescendoed when Juwan Howard picked up a technical foul in the first half following a no-call of what seemed like an obvious foul drawn by Faulds. 

The technical free throws put Iowa ahead 37-35, but Michigan tied it moments later and held the ball with the same score on the board and under ten seconds left. Rather than holding for the final shot, Michigan hurried, passing it up to Kobe Bufkin, who rushed a three point attempt and it airballed out of bounds with three seconds left. Iowa then hurled a 3/4-court pass to Murray, who was posting up on Faulds, and then he stepped out for a fade away jumper at the horn that dropped. 39-37 Iowa at halftime, and a baffling way to mismanage the end of the opening period.  

The second half remained mostly the same as the first for five minutes to start things off, with Michigan continuing to struggle mightily from three (1/13 at one point, with more airballs than makes). The only notable development was a bizarre play that saw Juwan Howard come out onto the court to field a ball that was set to roll out of bounds, not realizing he was not allowed to touch it until it officially touched out of bounds. That landed him another technical, but because this was of the Class B variety, it was only one shot, and did not include an ejection. 

Tonight was the best game of Moussa's career [Campredon]

With 14:32 to go, the two squads were tied at 50, but that's when Michigan started to make their run. They would outscore Iowa 18-7 over the next five minutes to seize command of the game. Diabate, Eli Brooks, and Dickinson led the offensive charge for the Wolverines, who shot 7/9 from the floor over that span, and also banked a few points at the line. At that point it went from "Michigan has a shot" to "Michigan needs to win this game".

They defended their lead pretty well over the next few minutes, featuring one crucial swing where Patrick McCaffery missed a dunk and then Michigan responded with a pair of makes, including a Kobe Bufkin steal and jam, which swung it from being a possible four point lead back up to 10. Another minute bled off the clock, and Diabate scored two more at the charity stripe, now up to 28 for his total, and Michigan led 78-66. At that point there were just over three minutes left and Iowa seemed to be running out of time. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More recap]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Yet another pivotal game in Michigan's Quest To Eke Into The Tournament comes against top-20 Kenpom foe Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye, which has been a house of horrors for better Michigan teams than this one. Iowa is Iowa: the #4 offense in the country, the #121 defense.

Iowa's resume is a lot thinner than their Kenpom profile. Their nonconference schedule was exceptionally weak—329th per Kenpom—and they picked up a 20-point loss at Iowa State on the way. Their best nonconference wins are against a very bad version of Virginia and against Utah State, which is just outside the Kenpom top 50. In the league they've beaten Indiana at home and no one else of note. Their other league wins are against Maryland(2x), Minnesota(2x), Penn State, and Nebraska. They've lost at Rutgers and Penn State, narrowly.

This looks like a game Michigan can get, but the pretty numbers and game location means Kenpom gives Michigan just a 30% shot. Would be a big one to pick up.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

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THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Toussaint has started for most of the season but Perkins drew into the lineup three games ago, which continues to be irritating for people trying to put together graphics— especially since Perkins didn't get even 20 minutes in any of his start-type substances.