2020-21 women's basketball

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

There are three Big Ten games today, two of which will have an impact on the teams directly behind Michigan in standings (Iowa just beat Rutgers, Illinois-Purdue at 6) and one with delightfully little relevance to the conference title picture (MSU-Nebraska). No matter how those play out, Michigan can maintain first place in the conference by holding serve at home on Sunday against the surprise of the season thus far, Northwestern, which is in the four-team pack one game behind M in the loss column.

This game marks the first time in 175 meetings between Michigan and Northwestern that both programs enter the game ranked in the polls.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Austin Davis remains out with a plantar fascia injury. Juwan Howard tightened the rotation to seven players against Maryland, playing Brandon Johns for eight minutes at center and two alongside Hunter Dickinson at power forward while Terrance Williams didn't get off the bench.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

So, yeah, we added a Disaster Factory tag.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview plus an updated WBB preview for tomorrow's Northwestern game.]

So, it's been a minute. Michigan's first two scheduled Big Ten games were postponed because of COVID-19 concerns in the program, meaning they haven't played in a game setting since December 9th against Butler. The Wolverines are set to retake the court tomorrow afternoon at home against Wisconsin, which is off to an 0-2 start in conference play, before a marquee matchup at Northwestern on Sunday.

The Standings

The table is a bit rougher on the women's side because, unlike with Big Ten men's basketball, there have been a number of cancelations/postponements. By my count, four of the 16 scheduled conference matchups have been postponed (every game involving Michigan or Ohio State, both of which had outbreaks) and an additional 12 non-conference games involving Big Ten teams have been postponed or outright canceled.

We're also working with the results-oriented RPI instead of projection-oriented KenPom/Torvik numbers, though Warren Nolan's site has predicted standings and RPI projections I'm using here despite a lack of explanation about the methodology beyond "based on this season's previous results." Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which notably are not adjusted for schedule quality, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats.

Wisconsin should be relatively easy work for Michigan if they're not too rusty from the layoff. Northwestern, on the other hand, is one of the better programs in the Big Ten; M's triumph over the Wildcats in last season's Big Ten Tournament after losing competitive games in both regular season matchups was a big moment for Kim Barnes Arico's program.

That win over NW was a sign Michigan could compete at a top-25 level. They're right around there in RPI and well within both the traditional polls. While the voters are believers, the lack of a quality win has kept the RPI projections relatively skeptical. Sunday's game could help change that.

[Hit THE JUMP for Wisconsin and Northwestern previews.]

Michigan is coming off a huge week, getting a monkey off their back with their first win over Notre Dame under Kim Barnes Arico in South Bend, then following it up with a pasting of Wright State to move to 4-0 on the season. They moved up five spots to 19th in the AP poll, putting them in a tight pack with the rest of the projected top of the Big Ten:

Northwestern, oddly, chose only to schedule three non-conference games and their initial season opener against Bradley was subsequently canceled, so they still haven't played a game.

The Wolverines finish out their non-conference schedule against Butler tomorrow afternoon. They'll then get a healthy break before opening Big Ten season at Illinois on December 19th.

The Frontcourt Is Feasting

Nebraska transfer Leigha Brown has fit in seamlessly [Scott]

Adding Nebraska transfer and reigning Big Ten Sixth Player of the Year Leigha Brown has turned Michigan's starting frontcourt from dangerous to deadly. Naz Hillmon and the two Browns (Leigha and Hailey) are combining for 54.8 points, 19.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while shooting 64.5% on twos and 11-for-21 on threes. They've all been important pieces on defense, too. Both the traditional and advanced stats are eye-popping. From Her Hoop Stats:

All three are excellent players in their own right; their respective skill sets also elevate each other's play because of how well they fit together.

Hillmon is the main star and primary paint presence, especially on post-ups and the boards. Hailey Brown is the most perimeter-oriented, splitting her attempts near-evenly between twos (16) and threes (15), and she's been a productive rim protector and solid defensive rebounder. Leigha Brown fills the gaps in between, showing a high level of comfort as both a shooter and passer from the high post. Her shot chart shows off her midrange game, via Synergy:

She can get to the rim and finishes there really well; Hillmon spends so much time down there, though, that extending that threat out to 15 feet is critical.

The frontcourt was the primary driver of the Notre Dame victory, combining for 52 of M's 76 points while chipping in 22 rebounds, five assists, eight(!) blocks, and two steals. They played 113 of a possible 120 minutes; Hailey Brown never left the court. Part of the huge minutes load is because last year's backup center and breakout candidate Izabel Varejao is still stuck in Brazil because of pandemic-related travel issues. Part of it is because they're simply dominating right now.

[Hit THE JUMP for the frontcourt in GIFs, Amy Dilk's quietly excellent game, and the Butler preview.]