2018 ohio state

My answers ran long on NIL and transfers and Michigan’s clans, so I broke this mailbag into parts. The first is here, and this is the second, focused more on the Michigan 2022 questions. There were enough questions about Michigan’s scheme that I might pop out a third next week, or decide to save them for Neck Sharpies over the offseason.

Program Direction?

UofM Die Hard in Seattle asks:

Do you, Brian, Alex, etc …feel like this ship is finally ready to run on all engines, consistently year in and year out? Do you believe Jim when he says this feels like a beginning?

I can’t speak for the others but I do not, no.

It is the nature of college football to create narratives to fill in for chance. Flip a coin five times; if the first four are tails, Coinflip fans will argue whether the flipper or the coin needs to be replaced. Turn up heads on the fifth flip, and that’s the one we make a Teams podcast about.

“How great was 2021?” and “How good is the program that produced it?” are different questions, however, and the second requires acknowledgement that there’s a lot of variance. I think Michigan was a little lucky to win this time, and very unlucky that only one of five Harbaugh teams that played at this level came out champions. You know close they came. Alter an inch in 2016 and a Piggy 2pt conversion pass in 2018 and Harbaugh has two Big Ten East championships before Chris Olave ever lined up across from Brandon Watson (now Rusnak).

One good exercise when you’re trying to sanity-check the results of a season is to flip all the one-score games, and see how you feel about the season. We now have losses to Rutgers, at Nebraska, and at Penn State, but a win at MSU. That results in 9-3/6-3, 2nd place in the B10 East, and probably a Peach Bowl. Somewhere between that hypothetical (and still satisfying) season and the one we got was 2021’s peak distribution. Do that for the last seven years:

• 2015: 10-3, beat Utah and MSU, losses at Minnesota and Indiana
• 2016: 12-1, lose to Wisconsin, beat Iowa, OSU, FSU (probably in the playoffs)
• 2017: 9-4, beat MSU, lose at Indiana, beat S.Carolina to preserve the B10 bowl sweep.
• 2018: 10-3, beat Notre Dame, lose at Northwestern (blame “The Call from Mars”)
• 2019: 8-5, lose to Army and Iowa at home, beat Penn State on the road (probably doesn’t get Bama)
• 2020: 2-4, beat MSU, but no Rutgers comeback.

…and it looks like Harbaugh’s had Michigan playing at a B+ or A- level every season except the one where they had to play all true sophomores, and the one with all the COVID. The 2019 team was a lot better than the flip-it record.

There’s zero shame in coming out better than the flip hypothetical  —not only were we due, but it’s a mark of intangible things like timely decisions and plays. That’s where you get into things like Aidan Hutchinson’s leadership, how the players liked their coaches, how this team had fewer disgruntled players than others. I don’t have any way to measure that, or to know if it will continue, so it goes in the luck bin, but I believe in it. Also 42-27 was no fluke.

In the short term they’ve got fresh and upcoming talent at DT and CB—two talent-based areas we’ve been fretting about since 2018—and a ton of upside in JJ McCarthy and the receiver room Gattis put together for him. All four linebacker spots are sus, and Grandpa Hawkins’s stabilizing presence is an underratedly hard thing to replace. Past that they’re set up to return most of the 2022 team in 2023, but getting there requires navigating treacherous waters with new dangers, like the possibility LSU comes and buys your starting DT (like they did Mizzou’s this week). Depending on McCarthy’s development, the next few years could be a peak.

Long-term, it’s hard to say while we’re still waiting out Harbaugh. That’s gone on long enough that I now believe he probably does want to get back to the NFL, but the NFL isn’t biting. What version of Harbaugh does Michigan get back after that? People slow down with age and security, even The Jackhammer. I think Michigan’s climbed back to their Carr baseline, or where Dantonio got Michigan State, but the next step is the hardest, and the gatekeepers to that level are very keen to keep us out. Something more fundamental would have to change, from an expanded playoffs, massive schedule realignment, or new way of doing things at the NCAA that makes Michigan’s (and Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s) peculiar advantages into the most important ones.

If there is a difference now, it isn’t the underlying strength of the program but the fanbase’s mental fortitude. College football rewards highs and punishes lows, producing a few fanbases that can only experience relief when they don’t lose, and many losers whose only joy is others’ sorrow. Michigan fell down long enough to shed their hubris, and got back up with love receptors intact.

Intellectually, 2021’s may have been a Michigan team like many others. But to a new generation of fans, the experience gave them heroes and stories of their own. You don’t need statues, Seth & Sap, or other crusty old men to know what Michigan glory feels like anymore. A hundred thousand people saw it, and million more will one day claim to have. You get to tell those stories now. You were there. And will be for awhile yet. Long live snow.

So last November

SO LAST NOVEMBER Michigan's Cover 1 system was badly exposed against Indiana and Ohio State with crossing routes. IU showed you could double-team Winovich and Gary and get away with it because Michigan's DTs weren't going to win the 1-on-1 battles that created. That gave their quarterback enough time to find their receivers on crossing routes that exploited the lack of speed of some of Michigan's defenders. It worked for IU until Michigan was expecting it. It worked for Ohio State because there were speed matchups like Brandon Watson vs. Parris Campbell/KJ Hill/Chris Olave and JK Dobbins/Parris Campbell vs Devin Gil that vastly favored the Buckeyes, and Michigan's five-man pressures couldn't get home before those came into play.

I'm bringing this up now because Michigan just played another offense—one with a receiver on par with those at Ohio State—that wanted to run mesh plays with elite speed, was able to protect their quarterback, and yet got virtually nothing. I'm not talking about a patch—doing something unsound to stop Mesh is a good way to get your defense torched by all the other things. Michigan now has multiple responses to crossing routes from a multiple-looking defense. I know it's still early—no sports fan should ever have to go through The Rehabilitation of Urban Meyer twice—and there's no shame in not wanting to face it again. But if you're ready, I'll show you what I think happened, and why it's not happening anymore.

[After THE JUMP: Crossing routes. The bad ones.]

So how is it replacing David Long?

“David Long, tough player to replace.”

Don said coming in that he was sort of worried about where the secondary would be but then Ambry [Thomas] came along—

“Ambry’s come along, Vincent Gray’s come along, Jaylen Kelly-Powell’s come along. You can’t count out Gemon Green. So, we’ve got some—guys have been working extremely hard and doing really well and then, you know, we’ve got DJ coming in this summer, so it’ll be interesting.”

MGoLOLThoughtIWasTheOnlyOneWhoWouldAskAboutGrayAndI’dSlowPlayItAllCoolButLookTheThirdQuestionIs What’s different about Vincent this year from last year?

“He’s just comfortable. He’s very comfortable. He’s a very naturally talented, gifted guy. So he knows the system now and now he’s just going out there and playing, he’s not thinking. It’s really a beautiful thing.”

Does the new offense give more of a challenge for your guys?

“Yeah, it’s great for us, really. The RPO deal, we love it. You’ve just got to be very disciplined on the backend. The linebackers got to be disciplined. I think it’s gonna help us tremendously going forward for sure.”

Has anything surprised you about the group so far?

“Well, I guess you could say I’m pleasantly happy that Vincent has come along, that Jaylen Kelly-Powell has come along, and that Ambry is just—the sky’s limit with that guy. He’s really had a great spring, so happy for those guys and certainly happy for us as a defense that they’re playing well.”

Where has Ambry made the most improvement from this time last year?

“Well, I think in his technique, in places at the line of scrimmage, and the fact that he knows that he has an opportunity to start, he’s really embraced that role and he’s becoming a leader. He’s becoming a leader in our room. He’s been great all around.”

Does it sometimes hold someone back when they know it’s going to be tough to break into that group? Like last year Ambry clearly wasn’t going to be a starter.

“Right. Well now, see, that’s the great thing about it: they see that there’s light, they see that there’s a opportunity, they see that there’s competition for the other spots that are open so I think it’s helped everybody along the way get better. Definitely.”

[After THE JUMP: on Lavert, who's at nickel, the act of enrolling early, and the Ohio State game]