2017-18 basketball preview

Photos/graphic: Marc-Grégor Campredon

Previously: Point Guards, Wings, Big Ten (Part 1, Part 2)

While the college basketball season is underway in earnest for some programs – Duke and Michigan State have already met up for a #1 vs. #2 matchup – Michigan is easing into its schedule before its trip to Maui next week. We’ll get the previews done before then. Maybe. Probably. We’ll see.

Anyways, the Wolverines will be playing their third game tonight against Southern Miss. Michigan’s 2-0, but the first two wins over North Florida and Central Michigan were not encouraging, as each team had a narrow lead with about 12 minutes left in the game before Michigan pulled away down the stretch. Those games were similar in other areas as well: UNF and CMU each ran effective zone defenses, they combined for 19 made threes on 49% shooting from deep, and Michigan forced plenty of turnovers. The 20-point margin in the win over North Florida (a team that had lost in East Lansing the night before) was comfortable; the 7-point margin in the win over Central was not.

Former Nebraska head coach Doc Sadler has had a rough go of things as the head coach in Hattiesburg, as Southern Miss has won single-digit games and lost 20 or more in the three seasons he’s been in charge – and those three teams finished outside the Top 300 nationally according to Kenpom. It’s unlikely that they’ll mount an upset bid, so we’ll (hopefully) be in self-scouting mode as we watch the game.

Since BTN is only streaming it online (and at a cost), I’m guessing there won’t be very many viewers. If you’re interested:

WHAT: Michigan vs. Southern Miss
WHERE: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN: Thursday, 7:00 pm EST
TV: BTN Plus ($, online stream only)

* * *

There are quality big men throughout the Big Ten: Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ is an All-American candidate, Michigan State’s extremely deep in the frontcourt, Minnesota’s Reggie Lynch and Penn State’s Mike Watkins are excellent rim protectors, Northwestern’s Dererk Pardon is legit, Iowa has promising young centers… you get the point. Fortunately, Michigan’s set at the position and may have the best big man of the bunch.

Had Moritz Wagner followed DJ Wilson into the NBA, the center spot may have been a huge weakness, but he stayed in Ann Arbor – so Jon Teske and Austin Davis will have a chance to grow as backups. Wagner burst onto the scene a year ago and still seems to have untapped potential; Michigan’s ceiling could hinge on whether he takes another leap this season.

[Hit THE JUMP for individual player previews.]

[Photos/graphic: Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Previously: Point Guards

The second part of the three-part position previews comes one day before Michigan opens the season, which means I'm way behind. While the season preview will continue into next week, I should probably post the first game info, right?

Oh, dammit, they scheduled it while the football game is almost certainly going to be in the fourth quarter, and you'll have to pay for a stream if you're not there.

WHAT: Michigan vs. North Florida
WHERE: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN: Saturday, 7:30 pm EST
TV: BTN Plus ($, online stream only)

Uh, don't expect an instant recap, but I'll get some notes posted on this game once I get a chance to actually watch it.

Anyway, the wings. Michigan loses two starters, DJ Wilson and Zak Irvin. Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews, a similarly sized player with a similarly broad set of skills, is the clear replacement for Irvin. As for Wilson, well, can we interest you in some three-point shooting? Ask about the rest later.

[Hit THE JUMP for individual player previews.]

Marc-Grégor Campredon

ICYMI, Part 1 (MSU, MINN, NW, PUR, IND, ILL, OSU)

College basketball is almost here, so I’ll be taking a look around the Big Ten to size up Michigan’s competition.

Wisconsin and Michigan: reload or rebuild?

Kenpom’s preseason projections have the two teams at right about the same spot (#31 for Wisconsin, #32 for Michigan), and the similarities between the two programs are rather striking. In the last installment, I wrote this:

Last season, three Big Ten teams made it to the Sweet 16. Those three were the only teams in the Big Ten ranked in the Top 25 in Kenpom’s or Sagarin’s final rankings –  and the three finished in the Top 25 in both. They were Purdue (the Big Ten regular season champs by two games), Michigan (the four wins in four days Big Ten Tournament champs), and Wisconsin (who knocked off the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed). For what was somewhat of a down year in the conference, a trio of teams coalesced into a top tier by the end of the season.

Purdue retains almost their entire core (with one notable exception) from last season, while Michigan and Wisconsin do not.

The similarities between the two programs are striking. Nobody else in the Big Ten lost more from their senior class than Wisconsin: Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig were three-year starters who were rotation pieces as part of two Final Four squads – adding in Vitto Brown and Zak Showalter, the Badgers had four starters in their final year of eligibility last season. Together, they played over half of Wisconsin’s minutes. Michigan only lost two seniors, but Derrick Walton – who blossomed into a star late in his career – and Zak Irvin were cornerstones of the program; they led Michigan in minutes, points, assists, and shot attempts. DJ Wilson wasn’t a senior, but his absence will be acutely felt as well: two-way big men with an NBA frame and NBA skill-set are rare commodities in college hoops.

Wisconsin and Michigan also have the same prospective strength entering this season –their centers. Ethan Happ has been a fixture in the Badger lineup for two years, and he should be one of the best players in the country. His statistical profile is a marvel, as he scores and rebounds like a traditional big man (he doesn’t shoot from further than ten feet away from the hoop, gets fouled a lot and bricks a lot of free throws, and was in the top ten of both offensive and defensive rebounding rate in Big Ten play last season), but he’s a rare defensive talent (he’s a great shot-blocker and led the Big Ten in steal rate at 6’10) and led Wisconsin in assist rate by distributing from the post.

Michigan’s Moritz Wagner is also intriguing, as he burst onto the scene a year ago as a sophomore, flirted with an early entry into the NBA Draft, and returns as a popular preseason First-Team All-Big Ten selection. Wagner is less proven than Happ (and his defense is far worse), but his offensive versatility is quite impressive. Moe shot 66% from inside the arc, 40% from outside, and 73% from the free throw line; he’s a nearly unguardable weapon in Michigan’s ball-screen offense; he can beat smaller or comparably-sized defenders off the dribble with an arsenal of moves. Wagner’s presence unlocks plenty of five-out lineups for the Wolverines because of his shooting ability as well.

The Big Ten is stacked at the five this season, with Happ, Wagner, Michigan State’s Nick Ward, Purdue’s Isaac Haas, and solid starters at Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn State. Happ and Wagner are probably the best of the bunch, and they’ll be integral in Wisconsin and Michigan’s efforts to maintain their success from last season.

[More on Wisconsin, Michigan, and the rest of the league after the JUMP]