Softball headed to NCAA Seattle Regional

Wow, Minnesota did not get seeded in the top 16 and is going on the road to Alabama.  Did anyone see that coming ? 

The Minnesota seeding is astonishing. It's like the SEC picked the field and put the NCAA's name on it. Here are the effective Big Ten seedings: Minnesota 17 Illinois 19 Ohio State 25 Michigan 27 Wisconsin 35 It's not quite that exact since travel figures into the pairings, but there's no question the Big Ten was sent a message. However, what are northern teams supposed to do? No choice but to spend the entire non-conference schedule on the road and tournament space is limited. Minnesota could have played a tougher schedule, but they pass the eye test and lost only three games all season. Meanwhile, all 13 SEC schools that have a program made the field. Eight are seeded in the top 16. Go get 'em, Groenewegen.

1) Root for the ladies. 2) Root against Utah (which I didn't even know had a softball program. 3) Plan trip to Alumni Field for the Super Regional. 4) Red Lobster biscuits.

Thought I'd post a bit of a preview for the weekend... Michigan 41-11-1, 20-3 Big Ten, 4-6-1 against rest of power five conferences. Michigan's top hitters: Kelly Christner (Sr, CF) 1.160 OPS. Hits leadoff lately. Faith Canfield (So, 2B) 1.085 OPS. Hits third lately. Aidan Falk (Jr, RF) .978 OPS. Hits fourth lately. Tera Blanco (Jr, 1B/P) .905 OPS. Hits fifth lately. Katie Alexander (So, C) .857 OPS. Hits seventh/eighth lately. Much less power than in recent years, but get on base a lot from top to bottom. Some struggles against top pitchers. Michigan's top pitchers: Megan Betsa (Sr) .149 Ave Against, 1.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 1.79 KIP. Blanco .222 Ave Against, 1.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.77 KIP. Betsa will throw most innings against the top teams. One of the top pitchers in the country, leads the nation in strikeouts. Hopefully rested. Blanco's a good #2, but I'm not sure she's got enough movement in her pitches to last against a good opponent. Fresno State (first opponent, third seed in regional) 34-21 overall, 14-9 Mountain West, 3-4 against Pac 12, 4-2 against Big Ten, 7-8 against power five conferences. Lost 9-2 to Minnesota. Got 1R and 6H off of Groenewegen. Did not play Kamalani Dung. Fresno State's top hitters: Morgan Howe (So, RF) 1.151 OPS, bats third Savannah McHellon (Jr, P/1B) .978 OPS, bats fifth Kierra Willis (Sr, LF) .933 OPS, bats sixth Vanessa Hernandez (So, CF) .933 OPS, bats seventh Lindsey Willmon (Sr, C) .867 OPS, bats fourth Considerable dropoff from top five. Howe is the most dangerous hitter by far. Fresno State's top pitchers: Kamalani Dung (So) .216 Average Against, 2.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.85 KIP McHellon also pitches a lot, but she won't see Michigan or Washington. Like Blanco, it's hard for her to relieve because she is a key player on offense and in the field. Washington (6th seed nationally, 1st in regional) 43-11 Overall, 16-8 in Pac 12, 11-0 versus Big Ten (16-2 against power-five teams outside of Pac 12) They're seeded so high simply because they've done very well against top competition. Two of Minnesota's three losses came against Washington. In one game, they had 11 hits against Groenewegen in a 3-2 win. In the other, they had six hits against the bottom of Minnesota's rotation in a 9-0 five-inning win. Taran Alvelo threw complete games both times, allowing 14 baserunners in 12 innings. Washington's key hitters: Casey Stangel (yes, her real name) (Sr, LF) 1.114 OPS, bats third Morganne Flores (So, C) 1.039 OPS, bats fourth Ali Aguilar (Sr, SS) 1.007 OPS, bats leadoff Taylor Van Zee (Jr, 3B) .938 OPS, bats fifth Sis Bates (Fr, 2B) .898 OPS, bats second Kirstyn Thomas (Jr, 1B) .883 OPS, bats eighth Very consistent lineup, no overwhelming power. Very hard team to shut down with a lot of veteran leadership. Washington's top pitchers: Taran Alvelo (So) .238 Average Against, 1.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 0.85 KIP. Madi Schreyer (Jr) .260 Average Against, 3.01 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 0.52 KIP. Samantha Manti (Fr) .257 Average Against, 2.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 0.81 KIP. Alvelo is the dominant pitcher, but not quite as dominant as you'll find with most elite teams. Washington will have the luxury of resting her for the opener against Montana. Schreyer and Manti often share games and are ready for a challenge. Alvelo will often come in and pitch late in close games she doesn't start. If Washington doesn't sweep, it's likely Alvelo will only start twice. They like to mix pitchers in games. Montana (fourth seed in regional, won Big Sky tournament) 35-22, 15-6 Big Sky, 0-4 against Pac 12, 1-4 against power five conferences. Key Montana hitters: Delene Colburn (Jr, SS) 1.247 OPS, bats fourth Bethany Olea (Sr, 3B) 1.077 OPS, bats third Colburn has great power numbers, but keep in mind this is against weaker competition. There is a huge dropoff after Olea. Key Montana pitchers: Michaela Hood (Fr) .242 Average Against, 1.28 WHIP, 0.95 KIP. Colleen Driscoll (So) and Maddy Stensby (So) should also see action, but probably aren't ready for this level of competition. Hood will start against Washington. Montana might steal a game against a team's #2 pitcher, but it's unlikely. Just don't let Colburn beat you. Overall... both Michigan and Fresno State bring pitchers who have dominated in their conferences. Betsa in particular could take over the tournament, but she'll be asked to throw an enormous number of innings and she has worn down in the past with high use. Washington deserves to be the favorite and will be very hard to beat twice. They've been shut out only three times all season. Michigan will have to throw Betsa against Fresno State. That's the disadvantage of not hosting a regional. It's not a terrible matchup and I'd give Michigan a 75% chance of winning, but the pitch count will accumulate for Betsa.

If Michigan doesn't survive this Region, i have a new team to root for.

That said, Go Blue!

We are in pretty good shape in the draw. Our toughest competition will be, obviously, Washington. If we get by them, we will play the winner of, most likely, BYU or Utah. Those are definitely winnable games for Michigan. Getting through those, puts us in the WCWS. Our nemesis, Florida, is on the other half of the draw. Unfortunately, if they get through their regional round, they could run into Minnesota in the Super Regional. Is it too much to hope for a Michigan vs. Minnesota WCWS final? Overall, this is about the best Michigan could have hoped for in there draw. It would have been better if they could host a regional, but I am much more optimistic than right after their loss in the Big Ten tournament. Betsa needs to be on her game and the hitters need to NOT have one of their famed games where the bats completely shut down. Go Blue! Let's take this thing.

pissed away their chance to host by loosing that game to MSU in the B1G tourney.  They should've at least made it to the B1G championship and that may have been enough to get them in as a host.

Hard to believe that Minnesota doesn't host.

Listing records against the rest of the power five: Illinois 5-5, Indiana 1-10, Iowa 1-12, Maryland 2-3, Michigan 4-6-1, Michigan State 2-3, Minnesota 9-2, Nebraska 4-14, Northwestern 3-9, Ohio State 4-7, Penn State 5-6, Purdue 0-10, Rutgers 1-2, Wisconsin 1-1. That's not pretty. Minnesota's the only team over .500. And Wisconsin was ranked at one point without having faced much competition. Totals versus conferences: ACC 25-24-1, SEC 7-25, P12 6-29, B12 4-12 (42-90-1 overall). That's why only five teams were invited and the seedings are so low. That said, Minnesota deserved to host. The seeding committee had a message to send that went beyond accomplishments. Not only in not giving Minnesota a regional, but in throwing them right in Florida's path. Florida deserves its #1 spot. And they don't deserve to face a team that's suited to give them a stiff challenge in the super-regional. Florida has an exceptional pitching staff. Three pitchers who would all be dominant #1s just about anyplace else. The regional rewards depth. The WCWS rewards depth. But in the super-regional, one pitcher can beat you. So Florida potentially drawing Minnesota at the super-regional level is very bad luck for them. That's why I'm going to be a big Groenewegen/Gopher fan the next couple of weeks. Seems like a nice person, too. And Jessica Merchant is their top assistant coach and was one of Michigan's great players.

but their Conference sked was weak because for the second year now the top two regular season finishers didn't play each other. The NCAA just sent the BT a message: get your scheduling right. They can start by getting rid the Conference Tournament.