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PSU 10.5 Point Favorites
We gon die.
It won't be a blow out. We'll be within striking distance all game because of our defense and our offense will let us down. So we'll lose very slowly down the stretch.
Or if the gods are really cruel, Michigan will take the lead with a few minutes left and there will be a spectacular fluke or fuck up by the team that gives PSU the victory as the game ends.
That seems to be the trend so far.
There's also option 3 in which Michigan historically plays well against PSU even during White Outs, so maybe we can rise to the occasion and pull an upset.
I hope it's not a blow out either. But hope is a dangerous thing.
Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things.
Andy
best of things.
I’m gonna use the old reverse psychology and bet on Penn State that way I’m sure to lose and we will win
Is try that, but then we'd just lose by 7.
Boo these men!
Nobody can say you were wrong if you outline every possible scenario!
It’ll be a blowout. No credible indication to the contrary. Had a marketing Prof who once said: If it looks like shit and smells like shit...it’s prolly shit!
UM might bottle up Barkley but the secondary is going to give up some big plays. Barring a pick 6, don't see Michigan scoring more than 13 points.
You clearly have not watched psu this year and going off there 50/50 ball offense last year. Their offense is overrated, and there defense is pretty underrated imo.
Their offense is legit, only time they struggled was against Iowa. And we are fully aware of the weird things that happen at Kinnick during night games.
I have watched most of their games and they have struggled with Indy's defense as well. The rest of their games were against bery overmatched teams.
However, if you just look at the box score of Indy it looks like they owned them, when in fact Indy defense held them in check until the fourth. At which point Franklin really padded the old stat line by keeping the starters in and throwing deep. Culminating in a halfback pitch pass for a 25 yard-ish td with 4 min left in the fourth up over 21.
But, Indy shut Barkley down and got good pressure throughout. The pressure caused mcsorley to make huge mistakes. He either kinda froze and got sacked, throw a pick that got picked or throw a pass that should have been picked.
Indy basically spotted them 21 points in the first 6 min on a KO return by Barkley on the first play, a fumble at the 39 and a fumbled punt return that was returned for a td.
Just look at the drive summarize for the second and 3rd quarter. There is a stretch of 3 and out, 3 and out, 7 play -3 yards and punt,an int, and a 3 and out to end the half. They started the 2nd in the redzone after an int and missed a chip shot field goal.
Here is there scoring drives in the first half 6 plays for 39 yards for td; 9 play 74 yards and a td and the rest punts or int.
The second had one none garbage time to drive of 52 yards and a fg after a 40 yard drive. Then a long 80ish yard td with 6 min left that featured mcsorley throwing most of the plays.
So the score makes it look like they are legit. And the passing stats look legit, but like 60 of the 330 came on the last drive looking to pad stats. Moreover, they completely shut the run game down.
Again, this is not last year's psu offense, and not by a long shot. Not to say they are a bad offence, they are good. Just not elite like some seem to think.
UM might bottle up Barkley but the secondary is going to give up some big plays. Barring a pick 6, don't see Michigan scoring more than 13 points.
and fucks ups (SFFUs) are actually probably fairly even in the Harbaugh era (2 for us, 2 against):
For us:
Minnesota 2015. Woof. That was an incredible gift from the Minn coach.
IU 2015. We couldn't stop them. Jordan Howard decides to score a TD instead of taking a knee after a first down when they could have run out the clock and kicked a game-winning FG. Phew.
Against us:
That one game in 2015. You know the one.
Iowa 2016. I don't even think The Game 2016 counts as a SFFU, it was just an excruciatingly close (literally a 50/50 coin flip that the refs of course gave to the home team), and hence painful way to lose. Fuck ups did occur, but they were much earlier in the game.
I think it's just because the SFFUs against us have happened in rivalry games that we remember them more painfully than the ones that have gone us.
Don't forget the SFFU against FSU.
Michigan finally crawls back into that game only to fuck up the kick return coverage and lose.
our defense will keep us in the game, like they have all year. But they might wear down at the end. I could see us dropping this game like 20-10 so the line is pretty close.
Michigan will win 3-0 but will drop in the polls just for being ugly.
A sad pathetic loser of a man
This team is hungry for the upset! Fuck PSU!
Maybe O makes just enough plays.
If we can get Purdue O'Korn, and Indiana run game, and Florida defense to all show up, we will definitely have a shot. We've seen flashes of all these pieces. Gotta put them together and have the stars align...but this game is winnable.
Have you missed the other games? I'll take the defense from any of our games this year into Happy Valley.
No, I did not. We gave up headscratching drives to Cincy, Air Force, and MSU. And got shredded by Indiana late.
Florida, on the other hand, did almost nothing against our defense except get their QBs killed.
I must have missed where our defense got "shredded by Indiana late." You mean the punt return that set them up with a TD by the guy who has 2 punt return TDs on the season, whom we shouldn't have punted to up 20-10?
We gave up 42 yards in 49 seconds to allow Indiana to send the game into overtime. That should never have happened.
Greatly aided by an obvious intentional grounding, somehow missed by the officials.
This is one of the best defenses in the country. If you're finding it disappointing, you need to recalibrate your expectations.
My only point was that our defense will have to be damn near perfect if we're going to win. It was nearly perfect against UF. It had lapses against all our other opponents. If we're going to win, I'm thinking it will be a low-scoring affair (duh) like 13-10.
defense was gassed man. The offense wasn’t staying on the field at all in the second half and really didn’t try to in the third quarter. The D did seriously everything it could do win is that game and in the end it did.
Also, IIRC Indiana ran tempo to keep Kemp/Solomon on the field.
Hot takes blaming this defense for anything other than being exceptional in very adverse conditions are just BS
on that game tying drive weren't they?
and we still won.
that was a spot that an elite defense takes care of business: up 10, playing a bad offense and they failed to limit to a FG after the punt return and then up 3 with the offense needing to go 40+ yards in about a minute. Certainly wouldn't call it being shredded, but a little disappointing the defense couldn't win the game with not one but two opportunities to do so at the end.
Overall, defense was very good again, except for the drive that Kemp and Solomon got locked out there in tempo and the two final drives in regulation.
Also, let's cut down on the penalties, guys.
"a little disappointing the defense couldn't win the game with not one but two opportunities to do so at the end" Point is valid, but defense did ultimately keep IU out of the end zone and secure the win in OT.
fact that offense, yet again (see MSU 2015), couldn't get a first down to close out the game. We get the ball w/3:28 left, IU w/no TOs. We get 10 yds and game's over. D shouldn't have been in that position to begin with. That's most disappointing to me.
for a FG?
that onside kick was a gift from Bo
If we give up a headscratching drive to PSU and only give up 14 points, I still like our chances.
14 points will usually do it against us...
We get those 3, there will be a blow out. 35-3 Michigan!
Agree. If we get Purdue O'Korn and Indiana run game, we definitely win this thing. Our defense is excellent unless gassed and/or we need to put in our second D line and the other team is smart enough to tempo them to lock them on the field. That's how Indiana got that one long TD drive after halftime.
since that's part of their game. Wonder if we'll see much of the 2nd team line.
Part of getting "Purdue O'Korn" is actually playing against Purdue, I'm afraid. Right now, the data is pointing to JOK's Purdue performance being the outlier, not the norm. We're going to need to have a lot of things that have been going wrong for us this season, go right this weekend, if we hope to win. The defense will keep us in the game though, so we will have a chance.
Field goal Franklin. I might take us to cover
Hopefully we won't be the only B1G team to lose an embarrassing game at home under the lights this year!
Typical comment for someone from Wichita. I'm assuming you are from west of the Arkansas with that kind of attitude. ;-)
Except that PSU losing to Michigan will never be considered an 'embarassing' loss. I mean, we beat them by 39 last year and the narrative was about how many defensive players they had lost prior to the game, rather then how Michigan abused FG Franklin.
I’ll take the points.. Harbaugh and crew can use the drop in the rankings and double digit underdog role to their advantage. I think we see Michigan play it’s best game to date, and win on a Quinn Nordin walkoff field goal.
Steel in the spine!
Sounds good. Would sound even better coming from ThatDudeCeci
I don't know. We are due for a round of competency on offense, and I feel good about our defense against PSU's one dimentional attack. I think it will be close.
Gambler's fallacy. Just because we haven't had a good showing on offense does not mean we will have a good showing. We threw for 58 yards against Indiana. What makes you think we can move the ball at night against Penn State?
Dennis Franklin
Former Michigan QB?
Don’t drink and blog.
Denny Franklin!! One of my first memories of Michigan football was QB'd by Denny!!!
a la 1974 in this game.
we have ZERO chance
people were clambering for a couple of weeks ago.
Those people were both right and wrong at the same time.
THis fanbase is doing everything it can to prove "the backup QB is the most popular guy on the team" is indeed an axiom. Granted, we have a really....uhhh...interesting situation, but let's not break other people on the roster just because the guy ahead ofhim isn't quite doing what anyone - probably the staff included - would rather he did.
If I could bet against Michigan, I would. PSU is going to stack the box and dare us to throw.
teams than what we showed yesterday.
Maybe we can hit something big on play action.
Formation. Easy to learn enough to run it enough to mess with them. O'korn is a good athlete and he can pull it off.
I feel our D is just plain better than their O.
Been watching PSU this season. I just don't see them as a stellar team. Good .. but I just feel our D will keep us in this and it will be close. If we can get 17 points .. we win. I don't care if it's sloppy ... I just want the W. Would be a big win now that they are #2.
What happened to DPJ being a frisbee catching dog?
Nobody planned on the frisbee landing on the roof.
If you don't get open because you never actually had to run a route in high school, you won't get to catch many passes... But he's been getting more involved the last couple of weeks. He'll be fine. At some point, JOK (or whoever) is going to drop one of those bombs onto his numbers for 6, and the defense will suddenly loosen up the box.
He caught a ball this weekend with 2 guys on his back and another running toward him not far away on a critical third down. First he's got to get open but he's getting better at his routes. He just missed a bomb at the beginning of the IU game. O'Korn will get one to him soon. They'll get rolling.
those line setters know what they are doing.
But they don’t make the line based on what they think the final score will be. The oddsmakers create a line that they believe will draw even action on both sides. Then the casino collects the vig and doesn’t care about the outcome.
I'm saying it's scary because I can completely envision a game where we kick a field goal on the opening drive, kick another one after a turnover, and lose 17-6. On the other hand, maybe the scripted 1st drive results in a touchdown, and we never force that turnover but lose 17-7.
that is not how the lines are set. Vegas rarely gets even action, especially on regional college football games. Lines are set based on advanced statistics, they move based on money wagered.
Notwithstanding this comment. Even if, "they don’t make the line based on what they think the final score will be. The oddsmakers create a line that they believe will draw even action on both sides." was true. That essentially means the oddsmakers create a line that they believe the consensus of bettors will see as fair. Not sure there is a big difference between:
- oddsmakers setting the line based on what they think the final score will be
And
- oddsmakers setting the line based on what they think "the wisdom of the crowd" thinks the final score will be
and
- oddsmakers set the line using advanced stats
Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow... Why does anybody bother betting on other games? I'm actually curious about that. I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.
As for this spread, I think it is close to correct? I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason. We win a close one. That my call and I'm sticking to it.
Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow... Why does anybody bother betting on other games? I'm actually curious about that. I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.
As for this spread, I think it is close to correct? I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason. We win a close one. That my call and I'm sticking to it.
Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow... Why does anybody bother betting on other games? I'm actually curious about that. I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.
As for this spread, I think it is close to correct? I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason. We win a close one. That my call and I'm sticking to it.
Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow... Why does anybody bother betting on other games? I'm actually curious about that. I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.
As for this spread, I think it is close to correct? I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason. We win a close one. That my call and I'm sticking to it.
We've got nothing to lose. Gonna be a good game!
So I guess they expect a 14-3 game?
Take the points.
if nobody knew you did it.
Already moved to 11.5
That's generous.
I put down a large amount of money (large to me for a bet, probably small to most) on us last weekend. I got down on Tuesday when it was minus five so I was fortunate it went to overtime and we were able to cover. I might lay the points and be happy to lose some money if we win, but there's a decent chance we cover but still lose and that would suck twice as bad.
You're lucky you got -5. The line was -7.5 just before game time. Glad I stayed away from that dong punch.
Never leave a hanger. Always buy the half point
Usually (not always) it is a scenario like this:
line: Michigan -7.5 (-110)
Michigan -7 (-120)
Michigan -6.5 (-130)
Michigan -6 (-140)
The number in parentheses represents the amount of money you have to wager to win $100.
I actually found it at -4.5 and bought the points to -3. I then bought Indiana at halftime and ended up covering both bets, which was a nice day. I also took O'Korn under 235 passing and Isaac under 75 rushing. Those were gimmie's based on this blog.
To think how excited I was buying tickets to this game before the season kicked-off... sigh
We will win.
Raback it.
I appreciate a good Rabacking here and there, sprinkled in...
Well done!
#neverforget
Allah akbar!
Michigan's defense at least gives them a chance, but their offense does not.
That's less than I expected. I'll be surprised if its that close.
The point spread, our offense, in Happy Valley, dropping in the AP Poll... everything points to getting crushed on Saturday night but weird shit happens at night!
We went up in the coaches’ poll though!
Is there an O/U? It would seem illogical to bet on Penn State scoring more than 20 or to bet on us scoring less than 10. For that reason, regardless of whether you think we will win the game, wouldn't you take Michigan here? Unless our defense totally crumbles, or their defense holds us to under 10 for the first time in the history of the series, I think it makes sense to bet on us to cover.
This board has been bashing Franklin for the last year.
Brian and his misled groupies included. I Never could see it. So he kicked a FG, big deal.
Time to put up or shut up. I say M to WIN.
Nothing to do w Franklin, ALL to Do about M.
Barkley has yet to rush for a hundred. And their QB is not effective looking out of the ear hole of his helmet. Harbaugh has only been blown out once by OSU in year one. I don't think Ped State will cover. We might even win outright if O'Corn can do anything at all. If Iowa could shut these guys down we certainly can too.
Jawno Corn
Jadaveon O'Korny
Jump on them early and play field position and win the battle of turnovers.
If JOK starts slinging it, 10.5 won't be enough to cover.
I like being the underdog...makes the win that much more tasty if indeed we do win. I think Harbaugh likes being an underdog too...ask Pete Carroll
over-under ?
17.3
Sometimes the turnovers drive the outcome and sometimes the situation (like trying to come from behind) drives turnovers. I expect a very low number of passes and hence very low picks UNLESS we fall significantly behind, then the expected number of attempts and picks go up markedly.
Now Ped State gets to know what it feels like to choke a home game away as a double digit favorite
Michigan will win. Go Blue.
Beno Cook? 1997 baby.
Just don't see this being close. Defense can only stop them so many times. O'Korn just hasn't shown any poise whatsoever. Our only chance is if we make psu turn it over 4-5 times. I think the game will feel somewhat close, we'll trail 13-3 at the break, then JOK throws a couple picks and ST gives up a big play and we lose like 30-9 or something. We just aren't good offensively.
I know UM has looked bad. But, they have a top 5 defense that keeps them in every game and PSU is a bit over ranked. Add to that, the fact Harbaugh has only lost by more than 7 points ONCE while ar Michigan. Only a self-hating idiot would bet on PSU to cover.
Have you even watched Saquon Barkley play this year?
That is all.
"He's put up good yardage against sub par defenses... We've faced better backs in recent memory, imo. Barkley is a talented kid but he's no Zeke Elliott. I think we'll be just fine defensively - it's the offense that has us all worried"
Remember telling my son when he was a freshman that he'd be the best back in the BIG in two years. He is all of that. Cat is big, catches passes, blocks, jukes people. As fast as Zeke
That is without question. Also think he is the top offensive player. But, he is not proven to be a generational talent or anything and this Michigan defense is up to the task.
The reason we are even double digit dogs is the UM offense. EVERYONE knows that. How can you disagree?
He's faster than Zeke actually. He's great, I agree. He does everything except perform against Michigan.
Maybe he is, but Indiana shut him down. We just destroyed Indiana on the ground with no credible passing threat. If he's an all-everything generational talent, he shouldn't be shut down by Indiana of all teams.
Indiana - #22 S&P Defense
Iowa - #23 S&P Defense
Northwestern - #56 S&P Defense
I watched him play like Denard against subpar defenses. The only good defense he lit up was USC in the Rose Bowl and I am not sold that it was a very good defence.
Also, I watched him get shut down by the same Indiana rush defense that Michigan gashed.
He is probably the best player in the Big Ten, but Michigan is strong against the run. He will do okay, but simply pointing to him to claim it will be a multiple TD loss is.... wait for it... obtuse.
"Also, I watched him get shut down by the same Indiana rush defense that Michigan gashed."
He had 221 yards of total offense in that game.
Cover that spread and I'd be ok.
I don't think there's a universe where we win comfortably. More probable is the game comes down to Nordin having to kick a sizeable FG for the win. And I'd be totally cool with that.
Nordin nails a 50 yarder as time expires for the win? Yeah, I'd take that!
and somehow wins. We have BALLERS on Defense, Higdon, with DPJ , who made some nice plays, about to emerge. Play action gonna work next week.
Big underdog on the road in a tough environment. Harbaugh has them right where he wants them.
going all the way back to the Schembechler era. We're a much better road dog.
Might be true but that stat doesn't improve our offense.
When do you think I should start drinking Saturday so it won't hurt so bad?
Our defense is nat' champ level and our kicker, but our offense and else is mid-level. So sad.
Tuesday morning should be good.
As bleak as this game looks I will say I like when Michigan is an underdog.
Doesn't happen often and may give them a little chip. Everyone keeps talking about how great PSU is and how bad Michigan is. Let them keep saying that this week.
and another interesting note is O'Korn is from Central Pennsylvania. so maybe a little extra motivation there.
Go Blue.
#Believe
Why? When was the last time Michigan won as an underdog? Never under Harbaugh right?
"Why? When was the last time Michigan won as an underdog? Never under Harbaugh right?"
the year he guaranteed a victory over OSU as a player. So that'd be one. Think we were dogs to FL in /15 too, no?
did it a lot
Michigan 17-13
When you have the best unit on the field, there's always a chance. If Michigan puts up 17 plus, we win.
Penn State 17-10
Jackie Treehorn better put the note pad down.
Treats objects like women man
I'm just hoping when it's all said and done that we don't have to hear him make any comment that includes the phrase "helps the recovery." I will literally throw up.
game day - evening ... hoping we have held back something for this game. Would have to think with this staff, knowing this was a Red Letter Day that we have something in reserve. I believe in Coach and think we will give them a game. The good weather and being underdogs can only help!
Go Blue!
How many times have we said that. We're not saving anything. Last year it was "wait till Harbaugh uses peppers this way or that way" or "he's savin him for Ohio state on offense". This year heading into the msu game it's "our offense is holding back until we play them, the bye week will help unleash". We are what we are. Harbaugh isn't saving anything. He's tryin to get this offense going so it doesn't make sense to "hold back". If we want any chance at an upset, it will be on the shoulders of this defense, which is pretty obvious. The offense won't do shit. And we're not lucky enough to have the ball bounce our way this Saturday. 24-13 PSU
We have been in a position to win every game he has coached for us. Our largest margin of loss was last week. Take Michigan.
Just watched the Steelers over the chiefs. I’ll take defense over offense all day. Believe in these coaches.
These coaches have done absolutely nothing this year to make be believe in them
then just stop following the program. these guys are as good as it gets. be rational
Is not as good as it gets. Harbaugh and Brown? Absolutely, the but offensive staff has proven to be replacement level (jury out on Hamilton still)
top defense in country while basically losing 9-10 starters. ya, nothing.
Are you forgetting Don Brown?
Brown has done everything and then some to earn my trust.
Another idiot
I say 20 I think our offense will make a few plays to score 2 tds
where do the other 7 points come from?
You’re going to have to sustain drives - the defense looked exhausted at the end of the games yesterday
That's definitely part of it too. Our second rotation at DL is a drop down--good raw talent but young. Indiana trapped them on the field with tempo to score one of their touchdowns.
If we can string together some first downs to keep our defense fresh, it'll be huge. Winning the time of possession battle will help a lot.
Is Purdue playing Saturday? Maybe we can have O’korn’s previous coach on the sidelines.
Get their dongs punched in Q1 as Barkley gets stuffed and an arm punt gets picked. Franklin's sphincter will tighten, and the play-calling will become increasingly desperate.
Gonna be a happy trip back from Happy Valley for Jimmy and the boys. M 31, PSU 21
Love our chances.
Remember 2008 and 2009? I've tried to forget, but it's difficult.
Did you not see us play them in the RichRod years? Those were beatings if I ever saw one.
10.5 might be pretty gosh darn close. I could very easily see this being a 13-3 or 14-3 ballgame.
Unfortunately I agree. This line seems to be about what I would expect. Hopefully the boys can pull this out in a tough environment.
This may get ugly. Another embarrassing loss in prime time will not be good for the program.
beat down of Franklin by UM in prime time will be great for the program.
Michigan has lost ONE game, yes ONE game by double digits in Harbaugh's time here. And guess what, it was Durkin's D, not Don Browns. So, my Money is on a cover. And I am still saying, look for upset.
what a bunch of pussies, you will all be sucking Harbaughs dick come saturday night
Gay fantasies
To each their own
You? Some sort of a damned homo?
sucking no one's dick Saturday night, regardless of the outcome.
the best team we've played so far. For all the struggles we've had, it's easy to forget that a Florida that - that increasingly looks like a 7-5 type team - has been the biggest test so far on paper. With Florida and MSU we've played two OK but flawed teams, but no legit top 10-15 team yet. PSU is that even if you think they aren't a playoff caliber team.
We've struggled vs some pretty mediocre opponents, too, and all in all, in general you tend to struggle more once you play vs better opponents. That's been shown in our past two seasons, too. Wisconsin did turn out to be a much tougher test than the other teams prior to that game. But of course last year we blew out most teams prior to that and merely got a 'close' win vs Wisky. This year we struggle vs everyone so you decide what that means for a game vs a much tougher foe.
The game is still to be played and I certainly hope we keep it close and maybe win on a lucky punch even but no-one should be shocked if this turns out to be a 28-6 or 31-10 type loss either.
Michigan needs defensive scores and short fields early. If Lavert Hill goes nuts on Mcsorley in the first half, there's a chance M can grind out the second half and protect a lead.
If Michigan gets down by ten-ish, I'll be expecting interceptable balls to flow from Okorn like bees out of a hive.
The defense is good enough, they just have to do more than stop Penn State; they'll probably need to score on them too.
Sounds about right. Our best bet to win this game is to do what Iowa did to us last year. Reduce the game to a defensive slopfest and control field position. Will be tough but it’s possible.
Don Brown will have the defense ready and they will do enough to keep Michigan in the game, but the offense HAS to sustain drives and put points on the board. Keep Barkley off the field for as long as humanly possible and keep the defense rested. If the offense continues to stall, the defense will only be able to hold Barkley back for so long.
Like Michigan alot with that line.
Then put your money where your mouth is, Jerry.
You shut your mouth when your talking to me.
You’re nuts. No way they run away from us, our D keeps it close. The O pulls a few tricks out and we could possibly win. But no, they’re not winning by 11+. Book it (pun intended).
Edit: putting my money where my mouth. 100$ on the good guys.
Yes, Don Brown's defense was specifically designed to stop Penn State's offense.
If we had even an ordinary offense, we'd win easily.
I've got a sneaky suspicion that Quinn Nordin will play a large part in the game at PSU. Offense has been bogging down in the red zone with JOK. Harbaugh will take the points when he can get them. We may see one defensive Michigan TD and three or four Michigan FGs. I foresee a 19-17 game. Hopefully it's Michigan on top.
And three of those losses came under Rodriguez and Hoke, with two of them being close. PSU “white outs” have never seemed to phase our guys. They’ve meanwhile not seen anything approaching our D this year. A 10.5 spread spells “upset alert” to me. Main question will be whether we can avoid costly mistakes. Do that and this is anyone’s game, folks.
Weren't we 10.5 point favorites over MSU?
It's time for us to win one of those games we are not supposed to win, due to a bunch of absurdly lucky bounces, and defense and special teams making just enough plays to win . . . the way MSU always seems to do regularly against us and Ohio State, and the way Penn State always seems to do regularly against Ohio State.
Why not us?
Barkley gets lost in the Bush. McSorley falls down the Hill.
M wins 19-17.
M defense will cause them to eventually panic. Franklin will make a key coaching error.
EUTM.
Beating Penn State is our birthright.
Go do it.
Exactly. PSU does not have a good track record against Michigan, including in Beaver Stadium, where we are 6-4, with three of those losses under Rodriguez and Hoke, and two of them very close games.
We need the run game from Indiana. Okorn to just make short completions. Control the clock keep the ball out of Penn st hands. Give defense a breather. Also need big special teams and defensive turnover. It can be done
We will win, and all the sad PSU fans can use their white sweatshirts for crying towels.
We will win. I think Hill is quickly becoming the Lewis of our secondary. PSU doesn't have a Godwin type receiver that McSorley can just heave it up to. Their run blocking isn't that great. It will be an ugly game but I see us winning 19-14. We only score one TD but Nordin adds enough points to overcome that. Higdon gets over 100 yds and O'Korn finishes with just around 150 yds passing and turns it over < 2 times
Picture us losing to Franklin
Dudes, we wasted this team last year. Their chump coach tucked his balls between his legs mid 3rd quarter. McSorley was eaten alive.
Our defense should keep us in it. OKorn will win it. I'm predicting a game like Purdue from him.
23-17 Michigan.
Magic number is 17. They won't score more than that. We will.
Penn State had no answer for our defense last year, now they may be improved but by how much? Our defense is just as good as last year's. Penn State hasn't seen a defense like this. I'm confident that Don Brown will have us ready. If we catch a few breaks we can win.
Will turn it into unhappy valley for the local folks.
GO BLUE!!
It's probably very slim, but I'd be giddy if they came out wearing the 1997 road uniform! Also feeling good about the game. I know a lot of nits who are extremely nervous here in western PA.
To 95 yards rushing against Northwestern. I did not watch the game but makes me have hope. Michigan will win. Go blue.
If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.
If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.
Maize pants! That's all we need to win.
Take the points.
We are due for a good game, and it is going to be easy to take us lightly.
Penn State's offense is based on rhythm and timing.
I actually think the bye week off hurts them more than it helps them. They come out flat and disjointed, and a highly motivated Michigan team punches them in the mouth.
They are shocked, the crowd grows restless, they tighten up and make mistakes, and Michigan pulls out the win.
14 point spread for this game in Vegas at the beginning of the year. It's actually gone down somehow over the season. OSU game +8 at the being of season.
19-15 sick fuck enablers.
M def only gives up 10.
Anyone know Peters? Somebody needs to tell him he needs to reach out to Jim for a meeting, and plea to give him a shot this weekend. Sitting down with your coach and showing how bad you want it can't be a bad thing!!
Yeah Harbaugh seems like the kind of coach where the ole "put me in coach" line will go over really well
Like Peters is known for not being a "leader" and very vocal. I don't know the situation, but if he hasn't had a 1-1 meeting (per his request) thus far since the season started, he needs too. Shows he wants it and is ready. You don't Attack coach saying I gotta play. Just let him know you have been working hard and ready to play this weekend. Just saying it can't hurt!
IMHO hook is big here. 23-13 PSU is my target score from a cold calculated betting standpoint. Take the points, Michigan covers on the road, and I would not be incredibly surprised if they manage the outright. My last three bets in Michigan games have all been against Michigan (MSU and OSU last year, Indiana this year -- 3/3), but I'm taking Michigan this week.
Factoids:
- The largest underdog margin of the Harbaugh era
- Only the fourth underdog margin thus far in JH tenure. JH's record so far is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) as an underdog (Utah and both OSU games, L/L/W ATS)
- Largest underdog margin in any game since the 2014 OSU game (Hoke's denouement, +21.5 pts., W ATS)
- First underdog margin vs. PSU since 2009 in Ann Arbor (RR, +4.5 pts., L ATS)
- Largest underdog margin to PSU since 2008 in Happy Valley (RR, +24.5 pts., L ATS)
we don't win this one. Our sack totals have been dwindling the last few weeks and we have given up a few big plays. A night game in Happy Valley, a white Out to boot, scares me.. Hope says we have come up big against PSU more often than not and I was at Michigan Stadium 2006 when Lloyd Carr argued to get two seconds put back on the clock in the final drive and Manningham caught the game winner at the back of the endzone with one second left. We were second to last in scoring in the red zone that year two.
HOPE is a dangerous thing. GO BLUE!!!
Pressure is on Penn State, being ranked that high can get to your head. They may tend to play with a "let's not lose" mentality since they see themselves on the inside of the playoff hunt. We will be the aggressive team.
And everything to gain. If we play this way, and Jim shakes up the playbook, we could actually win this one. I admit that I am on the fence in terms of whether I will watch the game live. Because without a good QB in Happy Valley our team could be a trainwreck and there are better things I can do with four hours of my time on a Saturday. It's nearly two grand for me if I do my work or I could use the time for the gym instead. I'll follow these boards and determine what makes sense for me.
There is no subtle way to mention how much you make in an online discussion about college football. Just an FYI.
Crass. But it does point out the opportunity cost. Which I often accept because Michigan, projection and memories. I've slipped into this topic before. On other boards it's not an issue. Here, I acknowledge unwelcome. And I apologize for not editing that out. Go Blue!
You’re so cool and awesome
I'm out $2,004 in that four-hour window.
All we need from O'Korn is to make some passes. I would not count us out due to our D. The secondary is really improved and I think we will hang with PSU fairly tough. Our chance for winning this game will depend on how O'Korn plays. If some how he plays more like the 2nd half of Purdue we will have a chance of winning 27-24.
but are we watching the same teams? I've seen a lot of PSU this year and they're the real deal. Even when Barkley was off his game against NW, they found ways to score. Hamilton is good. Their TE is good. Barkley of course. McSorley can actually throw, unlike JOK.Their defense is top-notch this year too. I want to believe. I just don't see it with the QB situation.
You have hit it on the head. Without a reliable QB, against a team that will score each quarter despite our superb defense, we will be left unable to catch up with corresponding scores. P-ew is going to score points every quarter. Us not so much. Unless there is some radical revision to our playbook that our QB can manage to execute. I am most unhappy with the likely scenarios.
Michigan defense will be the real deal for them. PSU needs a good ass kicking. Look at the upset of top 10 teams by lesser teams than Michigan talent last week. I'm glad their 10 point favorites and looking forward to Nitny Lion tears.
There is one constant in those upsets that we saw...the underdog is at home(outside of MSU) and is playing off a hostile crowd. We are on the road, and have not had too many good results playing night games away from home.
Penn State should have lost to Iowa. Granted it was on the road, but these guys aren't invincible.
Yeah, we are rightfully underdogs, and as of now, we don't seem to have a QB. So we've got problems. We also have a fantastic defense, and that means we can make a game of it. We will need some breaks, and we need O'Korn or SOMEONE to hit some passes. It doesn't seem like it is a likely win, but it certainly wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen this season, not by a longshot.
Ppl are not giving up, but Iowa at night has some type of weird mojo going on in that stadium, so I don’t know if that’s the best comparison. Most are taking a wait and see approach to the game. Nothing about our passing game is something to feel confident about right now, and has most fans worried going into our toughest game to date.
Curse of all white uniforms.
My gosh our OL sucks. When are we gonna have a dominant line of old. Harbaugh been here three years and yet we still have no OT
I don't bet anymore but back when I did I betted against Michigan plenty of times when I knew they'd lose, especially to o$u. Some might call it being a bad fan but I call it putting money in my pocket. This would be a game where I would take Penn State on the moneyline. Betting on the spread is too risky, especially when those half points are involved.
sadly, you are better off going against us than for us...
now, with us getting 10.5 on the road and showing no propensity to lose by more than 7 during the Harbaugh years, I like us this weekend to cover.
jdon
And it's not for homerism reasons, I just don't see Penn State being able to win by that kind of margin against Michigan's defense. Obviously turnovers could do it, so it's possible. But my money will be on Michigan +10.5 in a real sludgefart 13-6 type of game.
Line's down to 8.5 to 7.5, depending who you're placing your bets with.
Yeah, I saw that this morning too. I see a pretty narrow range from 7 to 8.5. This could easily be "Michigan fan money" coming in the day of the game, but I will allow myself to believe it is "sharp money" that actually thinks Michigan might pull the upset. Yeah, it's sharp money. The fix is in... ;-)