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PSU 10.5 Point Favorites

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:38 PM
#1
FauxMo
FauxMo's picture
Joined: 06/17/2010
MGoPoints: 87801
PSU 10.5 Point Favorites
I'd never bet against Michigan, but if there was a gun to my head, I'd pick PSU to cover this one. And I'd bet my house Franklin will make dickish comments after the game.
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October 15th, 2017 at 5:41 PM
#2
Toby Flenderson
Toby Flenderson's picture
Joined: 01/16/2012
MGoPoints: 10182
If i'm a better i'm taking PSU

We gon die.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:52 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
BursleyBaitsBus
BursleyBaitsBus's picture
Joined: 01/20/2016
MGoPoints: 12434
It won't be a blow out. We'll

It won't be a blow out. We'll be within striking distance all game because of our defense and our offense will let us down. So we'll lose very slowly down the stretch. 

Or if the gods are really cruel, Michigan will take the lead with a few minutes left and there will be a spectacular fluke or fuck up by the team that gives PSU the victory as the game ends. 

That seems to be the trend so far. 

There's also option 3 in which Michigan historically plays well against PSU even during White Outs, so maybe we can rise to the occasion and pull an upset. 

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:05 PM
(Reply to #17) #4
tjohn7
tjohn7's picture
Joined: 09/29/2014
MGoPoints: 5645
I hope it's not a blow out

I hope it's not a blow out either. But hope is a dangerous thing.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:48 PM
(Reply to #30) #5
bklein09
bklein09's picture
Joined: 08/24/2009
MGoPoints: 7209
Hope is a good thing. Maybe

Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things.



Andy

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:51 PM
(Reply to #30) #6
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18414
No Red, hope is the

best of things.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:35 PM
(Reply to #30) #7
TheTeamTheTeamT...
Joined: 06/16/2016
MGoPoints: 868
I’m gonna use the old reverse

I’m gonna use the old reverse psychology and bet on Penn State that way I’m sure to lose and we will win

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:14 PM
(Reply to #99) #8
sum1valiant
sum1valiant's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 10276
Is try that, but then we'd just lose by 7.

Is try that, but then we'd just lose by 7.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:45 PM
(Reply to #17) #9
victors2000
Joined: 03/21/2009
MGoPoints: 9043
Boo these men!

Boo these men!

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:07 PM
(Reply to #17) #10
1WhoStayed
1WhoStayed's picture
Joined: 09/07/2015
MGoPoints: 1417
You seem to have it covered

Nobody can say you were wrong if you outline every possible scenario!

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:31 PM
(Reply to #17) #11
BluCoast
Joined: 04/01/2011
MGoPoints: 339
No...

It’ll be a blowout. No credible indication to the contrary. Had a marketing Prof who once said: If it looks like shit and smells like shit...it’s prolly shit!

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:20 PM
(Reply to #17) #12
adcough
Joined: 11/22/2010
MGoPoints: 13
Gonna be ugly

UM might bottle up Barkley but the secondary is going to give up some big plays. Barring a pick 6, don't see Michigan scoring more than 13 points.

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October 16th, 2017 at 2:49 AM
(Reply to #183) #13
Squash34
Joined: 09/13/2016
MGoPoints: 3167
You clearly have not watched

You clearly have not watched psu this year and going off there 50/50 ball offense last year. Their offense is overrated, and there defense is pretty underrated imo. 

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:09 AM
(Reply to #215) #14
WorldwideTJRob
Joined: 07/05/2010
MGoPoints: 12979
Their offense is legit, only

Their offense is legit, only time they struggled was against Iowa. And we are fully aware of the weird things that happen at Kinnick during night games.

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October 16th, 2017 at 3:18 PM
(Reply to #219) #15
Squash34
Joined: 09/13/2016
MGoPoints: 3167
I have watched most of their

I have watched most of their games and they have struggled with Indy's defense as well. The rest of their games were against bery overmatched teams.
However, if you just look at the box score of Indy it looks like they owned them, when in fact Indy defense held them in check until the fourth. At which point Franklin really padded the old stat line by keeping the starters in and throwing deep. Culminating in a halfback pitch pass for a 25 yard-ish td with 4 min left in the fourth up over 21.
But, Indy shut Barkley down and got good pressure throughout. The pressure caused mcsorley to make huge mistakes. He either kinda froze and got sacked, throw a pick that got picked or throw a pass that should have been picked.
Indy basically spotted them 21 points in the first 6 min on a KO return by Barkley on the first play, a fumble at the 39 and a fumbled punt return that was returned for a td.
Just look at the drive summarize for the second and 3rd quarter. There is a stretch of 3 and out, 3 and out, 7 play -3 yards and punt,an int, and a 3 and out to end the half. They started the 2nd in the redzone after an int and missed a chip shot field goal.
Here is there scoring drives in the first half 6 plays for 39 yards for td; 9 play 74 yards and a td and the rest punts or int.
The second had one none garbage time to drive of 52 yards and a fg after a 40 yard drive. Then a long 80ish yard td with 6 min left that featured mcsorley throwing most of the plays.
So the score makes it look like they are legit. And the passing stats look legit, but like 60 of the 330 came on the last drive looking to pad stats. Moreover, they completely shut the run game down.
Again, this is not last year's psu offense, and not by a long shot. Not to say they are a bad offence, they are good. Just not elite like some seem to think.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:20 PM
(Reply to #17) #16
adcough
Joined: 11/22/2010
MGoPoints: 13
Gonna be ugly

UM might bottle up Barkley but the secondary is going to give up some big plays. Barring a pick 6, don't see Michigan scoring more than 13 points.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:55 AM
(Reply to #17) #17
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14600
Spectacular flukes

and fucks ups (SFFUs) are actually probably fairly even in the Harbaugh era (2 for us, 2 against):

For us:

Minnesota 2015. Woof. That was an incredible gift from the Minn coach.

IU 2015. We couldn't stop them.  Jordan Howard decides to score a TD instead of taking a knee after a first down when they could have run out the clock and kicked a game-winning FG.  Phew.

Against us:

That one game in 2015.  You know the one.

Iowa 2016.  I don't even think The Game 2016 counts as a SFFU, it was just an excruciatingly close (literally a 50/50 coin flip that the refs of course gave to the home team), and hence painful way to lose.  Fuck ups did occur, but they were much earlier in the game.

I think it's just because the SFFUs against us have happened in rivalry games that we remember them more painfully than the ones that have gone us.

 

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:28 AM
(Reply to #202) #18
BursleyBaitsBus
BursleyBaitsBus's picture
Joined: 01/20/2016
MGoPoints: 12434
Can we please make SFFU a thing now?

Don't forget the SFFU against FSU. 

 

Michigan finally crawls back into that game only to fuck up the kick return coverage and lose. 

 

 

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October 16th, 2017 at 9:39 AM
(Reply to #17) #19
Kevin13
Joined: 01/26/2016
MGoPoints: 6149
Yes

our defense will keep us in the game, like they have all year. But they might wear down at the end. I could see us dropping this game like 20-10 so the line is pretty close.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:19 PM
(Reply to #2) #20
Chalky White
Chalky White's picture
Joined: 03/16/2014
MGoPoints: 6968
Michigan will win 3-0 but

Michigan will win 3-0 but will drop in the polls just for being ugly.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:11 PM
(Reply to #2) #21
Tom Snow
Tom Snow's picture
Joined: 07/13/2017
MGoPoints: 1504
You ate a toby flenderson

A sad pathetic loser of a man

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:06 AM
(Reply to #2) #22
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 10595
Boo

This team is hungry for the upset! Fuck PSU!

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:41 PM
#23
blueday
blueday's picture
Joined: 11/04/2014
MGoPoints: 4655
Time for a signature win ...

Maybe O makes just enough plays.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:44 PM
(Reply to #3) #24
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
If we can get Purdue O'Korn,

If we can get Purdue O'Korn, and Indiana run game, and Florida defense to all show up, we will definitely have a shot. We've seen flashes of all these pieces.  Gotta put them together and have the stars align...but this game is winnable.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:51 PM
(Reply to #7) #25
lilpenny1316
lilpenny1316's picture
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 28722
Florida defense?

Have you missed the other games?  I'll take the defense from any of our games this year into Happy Valley.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:20 PM
(Reply to #16) #26
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
No, I did not. We gave up

No, I did not. We gave up headscratching drives to Cincy, Air Force, and MSU. And got shredded by Indiana late.

Florida, on the other hand, did almost nothing against our defense except get their QBs killed.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:28 PM
(Reply to #41) #27
CLion
CLion's picture
Joined: 09/16/2017
MGoPoints: 3735
I must

I must have missed where our defense got "shredded by Indiana late." You mean the punt return that set them up with a TD by the guy who has 2 punt return TDs on the season, whom we shouldn't have punted to up 20-10?

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:34 PM
(Reply to #45) #28
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
We gave up 42 yards in 49

We gave up 42 yards in 49 seconds to allow Indiana to send the game into overtime. That should never have happened.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:15 PM
(Reply to #49) #29
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
Greatly aided by a blatant

Greatly aided by an obvious intentional grounding, somehow missed by the officials.

This is one of the best defenses in the country.  If you're finding it disappointing, you need to recalibrate your expectations.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:49 PM
(Reply to #74) #30
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
My only point was that our

My only point was that our defense will have to be damn near perfect if we're going to win. It was nearly perfect against UF. It had lapses against all our other opponents. If we're going to win, I'm thinking it will be a low-scoring affair (duh) like 13-10.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:12 PM
(Reply to #113) #31
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 51900
The

defense was gassed man. The offense wasn’t staying on the field at all in the second half and really didn’t try to in the third quarter. The D did seriously everything it could do win is that game and in the end it did.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:22 PM
(Reply to #130) #32
clarkiefromcanada
clarkiefromcanada's picture
Joined: 11/21/2008
MGoPoints: 37504
This

Also, IIRC Indiana ran tempo to keep Kemp/Solomon on the field.

Hot takes blaming this defense for anything other than being exceptional in very adverse conditions are just BS

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:43 PM
(Reply to #74) #33
PamB
PamB's picture
Joined: 09/14/2013
MGoPoints: 5886
they were aided a number of times

on that game tying drive weren't they?

and we still won.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:20 AM
(Reply to #74) #34
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14600
Can't deny that

that was a spot that an elite defense takes care of business: up 10, playing a bad offense and they failed to limit to a FG after the punt return and then up 3 with the offense needing to go 40+ yards in about a minute.  Certainly wouldn't call it being shredded, but a little disappointing the defense couldn't win the game with not one but two opportunities to do so at the end.

Overall, defense was very good again, except for the drive that Kemp and Solomon got locked out there in tempo and the two final drives in regulation.

Also, let's cut down on the penalties, guys.

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October 16th, 2017 at 9:08 AM
(Reply to #208) #35
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
MGoPoints: 9926
"a little disappointing the

"a little disappointing the defense couldn't win the game with not one but two opportunities to do so at the end"  Point is valid, but defense did ultimately keep IU out of the end zone and secure the win in OT.

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:32 AM
(Reply to #225) #36
Sons of Malarchy
Sons of Malarchy's picture
Joined: 10/13/2017
MGoPoints: -38
more disappointing is...

fact that offense, yet again (see MSU 2015), couldn't get a first down to close out the game.  We get the ball w/3:28 left, IU w/no TOs.  We get 10 yds and game's over.  D shouldn't have been in that position to begin with.  That's most disappointing to me.

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:40 AM
(Reply to #230) #37
Alton
Joined: 07/05/2008
MGoPoints: 6771
"We"

http://mgoblog.com/users/sons-malarchy

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:58 PM
(Reply to #49) #38
umchicago
umchicago's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16169
shredded?

for a FG?

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:10 PM
(Reply to #45) #39
DennisFithian
DennisFithian's picture
Joined: 08/14/2014
MGoPoints: 922
that onside kick was a gift

that onside kick was a gift from Bo

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:22 PM
(Reply to #41) #40
lilpenny1316
lilpenny1316's picture
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 28722
We gave up 14, 13, 10

If we give up a headscratching drive to PSU and only give up 14 points, I still like our chances.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:47 AM
(Reply to #84) #41
FatGuyTouchdown
FatGuyTouchdown's picture
Joined: 09/07/2014
MGoPoints: 8227
If recent memory serves me correct,

14 points will usually do it against us...

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:08 PM
(Reply to #7) #42
bluepalooza
Joined: 09/02/2017
MGoPoints: 648
We get those 3, there will be

We get those 3, there will be a blow out.  35-3 Michigan!

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:09 PM
(Reply to #32) #43
LKLIII
LKLIII's picture
Joined: 11/06/2013
MGoPoints: 6410
Agree. If we get Purdue

Agree. If we get Purdue O'Korn and Indiana run game, we definitely win this thing. Our defense is excellent unless gassed and/or we need to put in our second D line and the other team is smart enough to tempo them to lock them on the field. That's how Indiana got that one long TD drive after halftime.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:22 AM
(Reply to #128) #44
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14600
PSU will be able to tempo us

since that's part of their game.  Wonder if we'll see much of the 2nd team line.

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:36 AM
(Reply to #128) #45
saveferris
saveferris's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 15697
Part of getting "Purdue

Part of getting "Purdue O'Korn" is actually playing against Purdue, I'm afraid.  Right now, the data is pointing to JOK's Purdue performance being the outlier, not the norm.  We're going to need to have a lot of things that have been going wrong for us this season, go right this weekend, if we hope to win.  The defense will keep us in the game though, so we will have a chance.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:42 PM
#46
DCGrad
DCGrad's picture
Joined: 09/20/2014
MGoPoints: 4791
That’s a lot for

Field goal Franklin. I might take us to cover

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:43 PM
#47
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
Hopefully we won't be the

Hopefully we won't be the only B1G team to lose an embarrassing game at home under the lights this year!

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:05 PM
(Reply to #5) #48
buddha
buddha's picture
Joined: 10/08/2009
MGoPoints: 2904
Typical comment for someone

Typical comment for someone from Wichita. I'm assuming you are from west of the Arkansas with that kind of attitude. ;-)

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:27 PM
(Reply to #5) #49
1VaBlue1
1VaBlue1's picture
Joined: 01/31/2016
MGoPoints: 23493
Except that PSU losing to

Except that PSU losing to Michigan will never be considered an 'embarassing' loss.  I mean, we beat them by 39 last year and the narrative was about how many defensive players they had lost prior to the game, rather then how Michigan abused FG Franklin.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:43 PM
#50
ThatGuyCeci
Joined: 12/30/2015
MGoPoints: 2768
I’ll take the points..

I’ll take the points.. Harbaugh and crew can use the drop in the rankings and double digit underdog role to their advantage. I think we see Michigan play it’s best game to date, and win on a Quinn Nordin walkoff field goal.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:45 PM
(Reply to #6) #51
big john lives on 67
big john lives on 67's picture
Joined: 02/15/2009
MGoPoints: 2799
Excellent

Steel in the spine!

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:33 PM
(Reply to #6) #52
TNWolverine
TNWolverine's picture
Joined: 10/26/2010
MGoPoints: 5047
Sounds good. Would sound even

Sounds good. Would sound even better coming from ThatDudeCeci

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:46 PM
#53
Marvin
Marvin's picture
Joined: 08/17/2010
MGoPoints: 4634
I don't know. We are due for

I don't know. We are due for a round of competency on offense, and I feel good about our defense against PSU's one dimentional attack. I think it will be close.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:48 PM
(Reply to #8) #54
Toby Flenderson
Toby Flenderson's picture
Joined: 01/16/2012
MGoPoints: 10182
Gambler's fallacy. Just

Gambler's fallacy. Just because we haven't had a good showing on offense does not mean we will have a good showing. We threw for 58 yards against Indiana. What makes you think we can move the ball at night against Penn State?

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:49 PM
(Reply to #12) #55
Njia
Njia's picture
Joined: 09/15/2009
MGoPoints: 26791
Just one reason

Dennis Franklin

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:52 PM
(Reply to #14) #56
BursleyBaitsBus
BursleyBaitsBus's picture
Joined: 01/20/2016
MGoPoints: 12434
Former Michigan QB? 

Former Michigan QB? 

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:20 PM
(Reply to #20) #57
Njia
Njia's picture
Joined: 09/15/2009
MGoPoints: 26791
Moral of the story

Don’t drink and blog.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:31 PM
(Reply to #14) #58
1VaBlue1
1VaBlue1's picture
Joined: 01/31/2016
MGoPoints: 23493
Denny Franklin!!  One of my

Denny Franklin!!  One of my first memories of Michigan football was QB'd by Denny!!!

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:21 PM
(Reply to #14) #59
Blue in Paradise
Blue in Paradise's picture
Joined: 08/14/2016
MGoPoints: 14745
Yes, we could use Dennis Franklin

a la 1974 in this game.  

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:47 PM
#60
Wolvie3758
Wolvie3758's picture
Joined: 12/12/2010
MGoPoints: 6338
with JOK

we have ZERO chance

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:54 PM
(Reply to #9) #61
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18414
But, that's the guy a lot of

people were clambering for a couple of weeks ago.

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:49 AM
(Reply to #63) #62
Kermits Blue Key
Kermits Blue Key's picture
Joined: 09/04/2010
MGoPoints: 10344
Those people

Those people were both right and wrong at the same time.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:20 PM
(Reply to #9) #63
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81388
This Fanbase...

THis fanbase is doing everything it can to prove "the backup QB is the most popular guy on the team" is indeed an axiom. Granted, we have a really....uhhh...interesting situation, but let's not break other people on the roster just because the guy ahead ofhim isn't quite doing what anyone - probably the staff included - would rather he did.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:47 PM
#64
UofMDDS96
UofMDDS96's picture
Joined: 10/23/2008
MGoPoints: 7418
I thought it would be 17

If I could bet against Michigan, I would. PSU is going to stack the box and dare us to throw.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:53 PM
(Reply to #10) #65
XtraMelanin
XtraMelanin's picture
Joined: 12/09/2014
MGoPoints: 38446
Wouldn't You? I've Seen Better Passing Pop Warner

teams than what we showed yesterday.  

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:32 PM
(Reply to #21) #66
UofMDDS96
UofMDDS96's picture
Joined: 10/23/2008
MGoPoints: 7418
Of course I would.

Maybe we can hit something big on play action.

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October 16th, 2017 at 8:41 AM
(Reply to #46) #67
XtraMelanin
XtraMelanin's picture
Joined: 12/09/2014
MGoPoints: 38446
Run RPO out of a spread

Formation. Easy to learn enough to run it enough to mess with them. O'korn is a good athlete and he can pull it off.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:03 PM
(Reply to #10) #68
BrightonB
BrightonB's picture
Joined: 10/04/2015
MGoPoints: 548
17-16 - WE WIN

I feel our D is just plain better than their O.

Been watching PSU this season.  I just don't see them as a stellar team.  Good .. but I just feel our D will keep us in this and it will be close.  If we can get 17 points .. we win.  I don't care if it's sloppy ... I just want the W.  Would be a big win now that they are #2.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:33 PM
(Reply to #10) #69
Chalky White
Chalky White's picture
Joined: 03/16/2014
MGoPoints: 6968
What happened to DPJ being a

What happened to DPJ being a frisbee catching dog?

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:21 PM
(Reply to #48) #70
MotownGoBlue
Joined: 08/09/2014
MGoPoints: 19077
Nobody planned on the frisbee

Nobody planned on the frisbee landing on the roof.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UBQP9gEldRk

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:37 PM
(Reply to #48) #71
1VaBlue1
1VaBlue1's picture
Joined: 01/31/2016
MGoPoints: 23493
If you don't get open because

If you don't get open because you never actually had to run a route in high school, you won't get to catch many passes...  But he's been getting more involved the last couple of weeks.  He'll be fine.  At some point, JOK (or whoever) is going to drop one of those bombs onto his numbers for 6, and the defense will suddenly loosen up the box.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:23 PM
(Reply to #48) #72
MJ14
MJ14's picture
Joined: 01/09/2011
MGoPoints: 4393
He caught a ball this weekend with 2 guys on his

He caught a ball this weekend with 2 guys on his back and another running toward him not far away on a critical third down. First he's got to get open but he's getting better at his routes. He just missed a bomb at the beginning of the IU game. O'Korn will get one to him soon. They'll get rolling.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:48 PM
#73
titanfan11
titanfan11's picture
Joined: 10/13/2013
MGoPoints: 2547
That's a scary line...

those line setters know what they are doing.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:59 PM
(Reply to #11) #74
DenardGoHard16
Joined: 10/07/2012
MGoPoints: 296
Yeah

But they don’t make the line based on what they think the final score will be. The oddsmakers create a line that they believe will draw even action on both sides. Then the casino collects the vig and doesn’t care about the outcome.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:02 PM
(Reply to #24) #75
titanfan11
titanfan11's picture
Joined: 10/13/2013
MGoPoints: 2547
I know...

I'm saying it's scary because I can completely envision a game where we kick a field goal on the opening drive, kick another one after a turnover, and lose 17-6.  On the other hand, maybe the scripted 1st drive results in a touchdown, and we never force that turnover but lose 17-7.  

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:12 PM
(Reply to #24) #76
A2MIKE
A2MIKE's picture
Joined: 10/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1749
common fallacy

that is not how the lines are set.  Vegas rarely gets even action, especially on regional college football games.  Lines are set based on advanced statistics, they move based on money wagered.

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October 16th, 2017 at 9:23 AM
(Reply to #73) #77
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
MGoPoints: 9926
Notwithstanding this

Notwithstanding this comment.  Even if, "they don’t make the line based on what they think the final score will be. The oddsmakers create a line that they believe will draw even action on both sides."  was true.  That essentially means the oddsmakers create a line that they believe the consensus of bettors will see as fair.  Not sure there is a big difference between:

  • oddsmakers setting the line based on what they think the final score will be 

And

  • oddsmakers setting the line based on what they think "the wisdom of the crowd" thinks the final score will be

and

  • oddsmakers set the line using advanced stats
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October 16th, 2017 at 2:07 PM
(Reply to #11) #78
Ramblin
Joined: 01/09/2011
MGoPoints: 980
Unless

Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow...  Why does anybody bother betting on other games?  I'm actually curious about that.  I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.

As for this spread, I think it is close to correct?  I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason.  We win a close one.  That my call and I'm sticking to it.

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October 16th, 2017 at 2:07 PM
(Reply to #11) #79
Ramblin
Joined: 01/09/2011
MGoPoints: 980
Unless

Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow...  Why does anybody bother betting on other games?  I'm actually curious about that.  I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.

As for this spread, I think it is close to correct?  I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason.  We win a close one.  That my call and I'm sticking to it.

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October 16th, 2017 at 2:08 PM
(Reply to #11) #80
Ramblin
Joined: 01/09/2011
MGoPoints: 980
Unless

Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow...  Why does anybody bother betting on other games?  I'm actually curious about that.  I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.

As for this spread, I think it is close to correct?  I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason.  We win a close one.  That my call and I'm sticking to it.

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October 16th, 2017 at 2:08 PM
(Reply to #11) #81
Ramblin
Joined: 01/09/2011
MGoPoints: 980
Unless it's Sparty...

Unless we are playing MSU, then they get it wrong every single year somehow...  Why does anybody bother betting on other games?  I'm actually curious about that.  I think betting Sparty to cover might be my new retirement plan.

As for this spread, I think it is close to correct?  I dunno though, I have a feeling about this one for some reason.  We win a close one.  That my call and I'm sticking to it.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:48 PM
#82
M-Lemon
M-Lemon's picture
Joined: 11/24/2012
MGoPoints: 666
We/ve got nothing

We've got nothing to lose.  Gonna be a good game!

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:49 PM
#83
ThatFatMan42
ThatFatMan42's picture
Joined: 11/15/2015
MGoPoints: 1109
So I guess they expect a 14-3

So I guess they expect a 14-3 game?

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:52 PM
#84
Spitfire
Joined: 11/08/2016
MGoPoints: 13
Take the points.

Take the points.

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:52 PM
#85
XtraMelanin
XtraMelanin's picture
Joined: 12/09/2014
MGoPoints: 38446
Admit it FauxMo, You'd Take the Molesters and Give the Points

if nobody knew you did it. 

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:57 PM
#86
SugarShane
Joined: 10/19/2011
MGoPoints: 3143
Already moved to 11.5

Already moved to 11.5

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October 15th, 2017 at 5:58 PM
#87
Bando Calrissian
Bando Calrissian's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 60185
That's generous.

That's generous.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:00 PM
#88
DHughes5218
Joined: 10/04/2014
MGoPoints: 991
I put down a large amount of

I put down a large amount of money (large to me for a bet, probably small to most) on us last weekend. I got down on Tuesday when it was minus five so I was fortunate it went to overtime and we were able to cover. I might lay the points and be happy to lose some money if we win, but there's a decent chance we cover but still lose and that would suck twice as bad.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:47 PM
(Reply to #25) #89
Durham Blue
Durham Blue's picture
Joined: 10/09/2008
MGoPoints: 4205
You're lucky you got -5.  The

You're lucky you got -5.  The line was -7.5 just before game time.  Glad I stayed away from that dong punch.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:04 PM
(Reply to #55) #90
SwitchbladeSam
SwitchbladeSam's picture
Joined: 06/08/2015
MGoPoints: 11528
Never leave a hanger. Always

Never leave a hanger. Always buy the half point

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:30 PM
(Reply to #89) #91
A2MIKE
A2MIKE's picture
Joined: 10/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1749
buying points

Usually (not always) it is a scenario like this:

line:  Michigan -7.5 (-110)

Michigan -7 (-120)

Michigan -6.5 (-130)

Michigan -6 (-140)

The number in parentheses represents the amount of money you have to wager to win $100.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:28 PM
(Reply to #25) #92
A2MIKE
A2MIKE's picture
Joined: 10/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1749
good call

I actually found it at -4.5 and bought the points to -3.  I then bought Indiana at halftime and ended up covering both bets, which was a nice day.  I also took O'Korn under 235 passing and Isaac under 75 rushing.  Those were gimmie's based on this blog.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:04 PM
#93
Culero
Joined: 03/12/2016
MGoPoints: 103
To think how excited I was

To think how excited I was buying tickets to this game before the season kicked-off... sigh

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:08 PM
#94
NFG
NFG's picture
Joined: 04/24/2012
MGoPoints: 30751
We will win. Raback it.

We will win.



Raback it.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:48 PM
(Reply to #31) #95
Mr. McBlue and ...
Mr. McBlue and RR Too's picture
Joined: 01/16/2009
MGoPoints: 567
I appreciate

I appreciate a good Rabacking here and there, sprinkled in...



Well done!



#neverforget

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:39 PM
(Reply to #31) #96
BlueDragon
BlueDragon's picture
Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 21718
Allah akbar!

Allah akbar!

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:11 PM
#97
Saint_in_Blue
Saint_in_Blue's picture
Joined: 10/17/2011
MGoPoints: 17039
Michigan's defense at least

Michigan's defense at least gives them a chance, but their offense does not.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:14 PM
#98
NYMICH
Joined: 09/01/2012
MGoPoints: 262
That's less than I expected. 

That's less than I expected.  I'll be surprised if its that close.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:14 PM
#99
Harbaugh's Left...
Harbaugh's Left Elbow's picture
Joined: 08/22/2016
MGoPoints: 4441
The point spread, our

The point spread, our offense, in Happy Valley, dropping in the AP Poll... everything points to getting crushed on Saturday night but weird shit happens at night!

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:21 PM
(Reply to #35) #100
snarling wolverine
snarling wolverine's picture
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 43008
We went up in the coaches’

We went up in the coaches’ poll though!

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:15 PM
#101
DrMantisToboggan
DrMantisToboggan's picture
Joined: 11/26/2014
MGoPoints: 47593
Is there an O/U? It would

Is there an O/U? It would seem illogical to bet on Penn State scoring more than 20 or to bet on us scoring less than 10. For that reason, regardless of whether you think we will win the game, wouldn't you take Michigan here? Unless our defense totally crumbles, or their defense holds us to under 10 for the first time in the history of the series, I think it makes sense to bet on us to cover.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:16 PM
#102
Zeke21
Zeke21's picture
Joined: 12/20/2016
MGoPoints: 4579
TAke the points

This board has been bashing Franklin for the last year.  

Brian and his misled groupies included. I Never could see it. So he kicked a FG, big deal.

Time to put up or shut up.  I say M to WIN.

Nothing to do w Franklin,  ALL to Do about M.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:16 PM
#103
mickblue
mickblue's picture
Joined: 04/02/2010
MGoPoints: -9103
Franklin has yet to beat Michigan

Barkley has yet to rush for a hundred. And their QB is not effective looking out of the ear hole of his helmet. Harbaugh has only been blown out once by OSU in year one. I don't think Ped State will cover. We might even win outright if O'Corn can do anything at all. If Iowa could shut these guys down we certainly can too.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:19 PM
(Reply to #38) #104
DrMantisToboggan
DrMantisToboggan's picture
Joined: 11/26/2014
MGoPoints: 47593
Jawno Corn

Jawno Corn

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:19 AM
(Reply to #39) #105
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
MGoPoints: 9926
Jadaveon O'Korny

Jadaveon O'Korny

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:21 PM
#106
Zoltanrules
Zoltanrules's picture
Joined: 08/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14470
We need to play Tressleball to win

Jump on them early and play field position and win the battle of turnovers.

If JOK starts slinging it, 10.5 won't be enough to cover.

 

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:28 PM
#107
UMProud
UMProud's picture
Joined: 12/18/2014
MGoPoints: 63765
I like being the underdog...makes the win that

I like being the underdog...makes the win that much more tasty if indeed we do win. I think Harbaugh likes being an underdog too...ask Pete Carroll

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:33 PM
#108
GordonG
Joined: 11/13/2016
MGoPoints: 2969
How many O'Korn picks!???

over-under ?

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:12 PM
(Reply to #47) #109
pmark1210
pmark1210's picture
Joined: 11/02/2011
MGoPoints: 2605
17.3

17.3

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:25 AM
(Reply to #47) #110
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
MGoPoints: 9926
Sometimes the turnovers drive

Sometimes the turnovers drive the outcome and sometimes the situation (like trying to come from behind) drives turnovers.  I expect a very low number of passes and hence very low picks UNLESS we fall significantly behind, then the expected number of attempts and picks go up markedly.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:38 PM
#111
andidklein
Joined: 11/18/2015
MGoPoints: 2745
Good

Now Ped State gets to know what it feels like to choke a home game away as a double digit favorite

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:44 PM
#112
303john
Joined: 10/01/2014
MGoPoints: 727
Don't pull the trigger

Michigan will win. Go Blue.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:45 PM
#113
303john
Joined: 10/01/2014
MGoPoints: 727
Was this posting written by the late

Beno Cook? 1997 baby.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:47 PM
#114
Leonhall
Leonhall's picture
Joined: 06/14/2012
MGoPoints: 13840
I

Just don't see this being close. Defense can only stop them so many times. O'Korn just hasn't shown any poise whatsoever. Our only chance is if we make psu turn it over 4-5 times. I think the game will feel somewhat close, we'll trail 13-3 at the break, then JOK throws a couple picks and ST gives up a big play and we lose like 30-9 or something. We just aren't good offensively.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:47 PM
#115
PeterKlima
Joined: 08/24/2008
MGoPoints: 4360
idiots

I know UM has looked bad. But, they have a top 5 defense that keeps them in every game and PSU is a bit over ranked. Add to that, the fact Harbaugh has only lost by more than 7 points ONCE while ar Michigan. Only a self-hating idiot would bet on PSU to cover.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:52 PM
(Reply to #54) #116
H8anythingState2
H8anythingState2's picture
Joined: 09/05/2017
MGoPoints: 843
Have you even watched Saquon

Have you even watched Saquon Barkley play this year?



That is all.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:29 PM
(Reply to #85) #117
Wolfman
Wolfman's picture
Joined: 07/23/2008
MGoPoints: 8157
Disafuckingree

"He's put up good yardage against sub par defenses... We've faced better backs in recent memory, imo. Barkley is a talented kid but he's no Zeke Elliott. I think we'll be just fine defensively - it's the offense that has us all worried"

 

 Remember telling my son when he was a freshman that he'd be the best back in the BIG in two years. He is all of that. Cat is big, catches passes, blocks, jukes people. As fast as Zeke

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:49 PM
(Reply to #92) #118
PeterKlima
Joined: 08/24/2008
MGoPoints: 4360
He is the best back in the Big Ten

That is without question.  Also think he is the top offensive player.  But, he is not proven to be a generational talent or anything and this Michigan defense is up to the task.

 

The reason we are even double digit dogs is the UM offense.  EVERYONE knows that.  How can you disagree?

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:51 PM
(Reply to #92) #119
DrMantisToboggan
DrMantisToboggan's picture
Joined: 11/26/2014
MGoPoints: 47593
He's faster than Zeke

He's faster than Zeke actually. He's great, I agree. He does everything except perform against Michigan.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:20 AM
(Reply to #92) #120
HailHail47
Joined: 10/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1793
Maybe he is, but Indiana shut

Maybe he is, but Indiana shut him down. We just destroyed Indiana on the ground with no credible passing threat. If he's an all-everything generational talent, he shouldn't be shut down by Indiana of all teams.

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October 16th, 2017 at 11:40 AM
(Reply to #85) #121
pescadero
pescadero's picture
Joined: 03/28/2013
MGoPoints: 5998
Indiana - #22 S&P

Indiana - #22 S&P Defense

Iowa - #23 S&P Defense

Northwestern - #56 S&P Defense

 

 

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:46 PM
(Reply to #60) #122
PeterKlima
Joined: 08/24/2008
MGoPoints: 4360
Yes.

I watched him play like Denard against subpar defenses.  The only good defense he lit up was USC in the Rose Bowl and I am not sold that it was a very good defence. 

Also, I watched him get shut down by the same Indiana rush defense that Michigan gashed.

He is probably the best player in the Big Ten, but Michigan is strong against the run.  He will do okay, but simply pointing to him to claim it will be a multiple TD loss is.... wait for it... obtuse.

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October 16th, 2017 at 11:43 AM
(Reply to #110) #123
pescadero
pescadero's picture
Joined: 03/28/2013
MGoPoints: 5998
"Also, I watched him get shut

"Also, I watched him get shut down by the same Indiana rush defense that Michigan gashed."

 

He had 221 yards of total offense in that game.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:50 PM
#124
maize-blue
maize-blue's picture
Joined: 01/10/2013
MGoPoints: 30133
Cover that spread and I'd be

Cover that spread and I'd be ok.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:51 PM
#125
Durham Blue
Durham Blue's picture
Joined: 10/09/2008
MGoPoints: 4205
I don't think there's a

I don't think there's a universe where we win comfortably.  More probable is the game comes down to Nordin having to kick a sizeable FG for the win.  And I'd be totally cool with that.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:53 PM
(Reply to #59) #126
Harbaugh's Left...
Harbaugh's Left Elbow's picture
Joined: 08/22/2016
MGoPoints: 4441
Nordin nails a 50 yarder as

Nordin nails a 50 yarder as time expires for the win? Yeah, I'd take that!

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:48 PM
#127
SD Larry
SD Larry's picture
Joined: 10/05/2014
MGoPoints: 9883
Michigan wins the turnover battle, stuffs a tight PSU

and somehow wins.   We have BALLERS on Defense, Higdon, with DPJ , who made some nice plays, about to emerge.  Play action gonna work next week.  

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:56 PM
#128
Durham Blue
Durham Blue's picture
Joined: 10/09/2008
MGoPoints: 4205
Big underdog on the road in a

Big underdog on the road in a tough environment.  Harbaugh has them right where he wants them.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:57 PM
#129
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 70402
Michigan's been a shitty road favorite against good teams

going all the way back to the Schembechler era. We're a much better road dog.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:58 PM
(Reply to #65) #130
Leonhall
Leonhall's picture
Joined: 06/14/2012
MGoPoints: 13840
That

Might be true but that stat doesn't improve our offense.

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October 15th, 2017 at 6:58 PM
#131
panaMark
Joined: 12/08/2015
MGoPoints: 48
What time to start drinking?

When do you think I should start drinking Saturday so it won't hurt so bad? 

Our defense is nat' champ level and our kicker, but our offense and else is mid-level. So sad.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:58 PM
(Reply to #66) #132
ckersh74
ckersh74's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 21493
Tuesday morning should be

Tuesday morning should be good. 

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:00 PM
#133
What The Dileo
What The Dileo's picture
Joined: 07/17/2016
MGoPoints: 37
Underdog

As bleak as this game looks I will say I like when Michigan is an underdog.

Doesn't happen often and may give them a little chip. Everyone keeps talking about how great PSU is and how bad Michigan is. Let them keep saying that this week.

and another interesting note is O'Korn is from Central Pennsylvania. so maybe a little extra motivation there.

 

Go Blue.

#Believe

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:08 PM
(Reply to #68) #134
A Lot of Milk
A Lot of Milk's picture
Joined: 02/17/2013
MGoPoints: 9823
Why? When was the last time Michigan won as an

Why? When was the last time Michigan won as an underdog? Never under Harbaugh right?

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:26 PM
(Reply to #71) #135
Wolfman
Wolfman's picture
Joined: 07/23/2008
MGoPoints: 8157
Not certain, but think we might have been

"Why? When was the last time Michigan won as an underdog? Never under Harbaugh right?"

the year he guaranteed a victory over OSU as a player. So that'd be one. Think we were dogs to FL in /15 too, no?

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:14 PM
(Reply to #71) #136
umchicago
umchicago's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16169
Lloyd

did it a lot 

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:02 PM
#137
Owosso_wolverine
Joined: 06/11/2011
MGoPoints: 2313
Michigan 17-13

Michigan 17-13

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:09 PM
#138
pizzaparty62
pizzaparty62's picture
Joined: 01/29/2014
MGoPoints: 20
When you have the best unit

When you have the best unit on the field, there's always a chance.  If Michigan puts up 17 plus, we win.

Penn State 17-10

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:14 PM
#139
UPMichigan
UPMichigan's picture
Joined: 01/09/2010
MGoPoints: 9070
Jackie Treehorn better put

Jackie Treehorn better put the note pad down.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:19 PM
(Reply to #75) #140
preed1
preed1's picture
Joined: 03/08/2009
MGoPoints: 2978
Mr Treehorn

Treats objects like women man

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:33 PM
(Reply to #76) #141
Junior18
Junior18's picture
Joined: 12/01/2014
MGoPoints: 435
I'm just hoping when it's all

I'm just hoping when it's all said and done that we don't have to hear him make any comment that includes the phrase "helps the recovery." I will literally throw up.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:20 PM
#142
Wolverine62bc
Wolverine62bc's picture
Joined: 01/28/2014
MGoPoints: 361
Temperature in State College high 71 and low 46 degrees on

game day - evening ... hoping we have held back something for this game. Would have to think with this staff, knowing this was a Red Letter Day that we have something in reserve. I believe in Coach and think we will give them a game. The good weather and being underdogs can only help!
Go Blue!

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:07 PM
(Reply to #83) #143
Wolverine91
Joined: 01/13/2014
MGoPoints: 1462
How many times have we said

How many times have we said that. We're not saving anything. Last year it was "wait till Harbaugh uses peppers this way or that way" or "he's savin him for Ohio state on offense". This year heading into the msu game it's "our offense is holding back until we play them, the bye week will help unleash". We are what we are. Harbaugh isn't saving anything. He's tryin to get this offense going so it doesn't make sense to "hold back". If we want any chance at an upset, it will be on the shoulders of this defense, which is pretty obvious. The offense won't do shit. And we're not lucky enough to have the ball bounce our way this Saturday. 24-13 PSU

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:24 PM
#144
gustave ferbert
Joined: 06/21/2011
MGoPoints: 20170
with don brown as our defensive coordinator

We have been in a position to win every game he has coached for us. Our largest margin of loss was last week. Take Michigan.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:30 PM
#145
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15063
Just watched the Steelers

Just watched the Steelers over the chiefs. I’ll take defense over offense all day. Believe in these coaches.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:33 PM
(Reply to #94) #146
Schemboeller Ca...
Schemboeller Carrbaugh's picture
Joined: 12/13/2015
MGoPoints: 883
These coaches have done

These coaches have done absolutely nothing this year to make be believe in them

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:38 PM
(Reply to #96) #147
The People's Jones
Joined: 01/29/2017
MGoPoints: 4635
then just stop following the

then just stop following the program. these guys are as good as it gets. be rational

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:54 AM
(Reply to #106) #148
The Krusty Krab...
The Krusty Krab Pizza's picture
Joined: 02/22/2017
MGoPoints: 2287
Drevno

Is not as good as it gets. Harbaugh and Brown? Absolutely, the but offensive staff has proven to be replacement level (jury out on Hamilton still)

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:16 PM
(Reply to #96) #149
umchicago
umchicago's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16169
huh?

top defense in country while basically losing 9-10 starters.  ya, nothing.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:24 PM
(Reply to #96) #150
Perkis-Size Me
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 40765
Are you forgetting Don

Are you forgetting Don Brown?



Brown has done everything and then some to earn my trust.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:08 PM
(Reply to #96) #151
Tom Snow
Tom Snow's picture
Joined: 07/13/2017
MGoPoints: 1504
Hey look

Another idiot

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:36 PM
(Reply to #98) #152
goblue16
goblue16's picture
Joined: 03/28/2010
MGoPoints: 16192
I say 20 I think our offense

I say 20 I think our offense will make a few plays to score 2 tds

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:38 PM
(Reply to #100) #153
The People's Jones
Joined: 01/29/2017
MGoPoints: 4635
where do the other 7 points

where do the other 7 points come from?

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:36 PM
#154
MWolverine7
MWolverine7's picture
Joined: 12/14/2013
MGoPoints: 3860
You’re going to have to

You’re going to have to sustain drives - the defense looked exhausted at the end of the games yesterday

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:18 PM
(Reply to #101) #155
LKLIII
LKLIII's picture
Joined: 11/06/2013
MGoPoints: 6410
That's definitely part of it

That's definitely part of it too. Our second rotation at DL is a drop down--good raw talent but young. Indiana trapped them on the field with tempo to score one of their touchdowns.



If we can string together some first downs to keep our defense fresh, it'll be huge. Winning the time of possession battle will help a lot.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:38 PM
#156
MWolverine7
MWolverine7's picture
Joined: 12/14/2013
MGoPoints: 3860
Is Purdue playing Saturday?

Is Purdue playing Saturday? Maybe we can have O’korn’s previous coach on the sidelines.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:38 PM
#157
KennyHiggins
Joined: 12/03/2016
MGoPoints: 4078
I expect Penn State to be flying high as a kite come game time

Get their dongs punched in Q1 as Barkley gets stuffed and an arm punt gets picked.  Franklin's sphincter will tighten, and the play-calling will become increasingly desperate.

Gonna be a happy trip back from Happy Valley for Jimmy and the boys.  M 31, PSU 21

Love our chances.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:58 PM
(Reply to #107) #158
befuggled
befuggled's picture
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 2646
They've given that beating to us already

Remember 2008 and 2009? I've tried to forget, but it's difficult.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:23 PM
(Reply to #107) #159
Perkis-Size Me
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 40765
Did you not see us play them

Did you not see us play them in the RichRod years? Those were beatings if I ever saw one.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:44 PM
#160
ckersh74
ckersh74's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 21493
10.5 might be pretty gosh

10.5 might be pretty gosh darn close. I could very easily see this being a 13-3 or 14-3 ballgame. 

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:56 PM
(Reply to #108) #161
30swk18
Joined: 09/06/2017
MGoPoints: 217
Unfortunately I agree. This

Unfortunately I agree. This line seems to be about what I would expect. Hopefully the boys can pull this out in a tough environment.

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October 15th, 2017 at 7:55 PM
#162
Ty Butterfield
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: -84417
This may get ugly. Another

This may get ugly. Another embarrassing loss in prime time will not be good for the program.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:01 PM
(Reply to #119) #163
YoOoBoMoLloRoHo
YoOoBoMoLloRoHo's picture
Joined: 11/01/2012
MGoPoints: 9545
This may be beautiful. Another

beat down of Franklin by UM in prime time will be great for the program.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:01 PM
#164
bluepalooza
Joined: 09/02/2017
MGoPoints: 648
Michigan has lost ONE game,

Michigan has lost ONE game, yes ONE game by double digits in Harbaugh's time here.  And guess what, it was Durkin's D, not Don Browns.  So, my Money is on a cover. And I am still saying, look for upset.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:15 PM
#165
HAIL-YEA
HAIL-YEA's picture
Joined: 07/15/2009
MGoPoints: 6482
what a

what a bunch of pussies, you will all be sucking Harbaughs dick come saturday night

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:07 PM
(Reply to #132) #166
Tom Snow
Tom Snow's picture
Joined: 07/13/2017
MGoPoints: 1504
You have

Gay fantasies

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:09 PM
(Reply to #151) #167
bluinohio
Joined: 08/24/2015
MGoPoints: 5084
To each their own

To each their own

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October 16th, 2017 at 6:10 AM
(Reply to #132) #168
Leonhall
Leonhall's picture
Joined: 06/14/2012
MGoPoints: 13840
What are

You? Some sort of a damned homo?

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October 16th, 2017 at 10:42 AM
(Reply to #132) #169
Sons of Malarchy
Sons of Malarchy's picture
Joined: 10/13/2017
MGoPoints: -38
I will be...

sucking no one's dick Saturday night, regardless of the outcome.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:20 PM
#170
BlueMk1690
Joined: 02/04/2011
MGoPoints: 2755
PSU might be overrated but they're

the best team we've played so far. For all the struggles we've had, it's easy to forget that a Florida that - that increasingly looks like a 7-5 type team - has been the biggest test so far on paper. With Florida and MSU we've played two OK but flawed teams, but no legit top 10-15 team yet. PSU is that even if you think they aren't a playoff caliber team.

We've struggled vs some pretty mediocre opponents, too, and all in all, in general you tend to struggle more once you play vs better opponents. That's been shown in our past two seasons, too. Wisconsin did turn out to be a much tougher test than the other teams prior to that game. But of course last year we blew out most teams prior to that and merely got a 'close' win vs Wisky. This year we struggle vs everyone so you decide what that means for a game vs a much tougher foe.

The game is still to be played and I certainly hope we keep it close and maybe win on a lucky punch even but no-one should be shocked if this turns out to be a 28-6 or 31-10 type loss either.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:28 PM
#171
brad
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2802
Michigan needs defensive

Michigan needs defensive scores and short fields early. If Lavert Hill goes nuts on Mcsorley in the first half, there's a chance M can grind out the second half and protect a lead.



If Michigan gets down by ten-ish, I'll be expecting interceptable balls to flow from Okorn like bees out of a hive.



The defense is good enough, they just have to do more than stop Penn State; they'll probably need to score on them too.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:35 PM
#172
Perkis-Size Me
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 40765
Sounds about right. Our best

Sounds about right. Our best bet to win this game is to do what Iowa did to us last year. Reduce the game to a defensive slopfest and control field position. Will be tough but it’s possible.



Don Brown will have the defense ready and they will do enough to keep Michigan in the game, but the offense HAS to sustain drives and put points on the board. Keep Barkley off the field for as long as humanly possible and keep the defense rested. If the offense continues to stall, the defense will only be able to hold Barkley back for so long.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:42 PM
#173
Romeowolv
Joined: 12/22/2009
MGoPoints: 587
Like Michigan alot with that

Like Michigan alot with that line.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:02 PM
(Reply to #142) #174
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
Then put your money where

Then put your money where your mouth is, Jerry.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:52 PM
(Reply to #172) #175
Romeowolv
Joined: 12/22/2009
MGoPoints: 587
You shut your mouth when your

You shut your mouth when your talking to me.

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:49 PM
#176
Tedbossman
Tedbossman's picture
Joined: 01/07/2014
MGoPoints: 1737
That’s free money.

You’re nuts. No way they run away from us, our D keeps it close. The O pulls a few tricks out and we could possibly win. But no, they’re not winning by 11+. Book it (pun intended).
Edit: putting my money where my mouth. 100$ on the good guys.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:09 PM
(Reply to #145) #177
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 147119
Yes, Don Brown's defense was

Yes, Don Brown's defense was specifically designed to stop Penn State's offense.

If we had even an ordinary offense, we'd win easily.

 

 

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October 15th, 2017 at 8:58 PM
#178
Durham Blue
Durham Blue's picture
Joined: 10/09/2008
MGoPoints: 4205
I've got a sneaky suspicion

I've got a sneaky suspicion that Quinn Nordin will play a large part in the game at PSU.  Offense has been bogging down in the red zone with JOK.  Harbaugh will take the points when he can get them.  We may see one defensive Michigan TD and three or four Michigan FGs.  I foresee a 19-17 game.  Hopefully it's Michigan on top.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:00 PM
#179
elhead
elhead's picture
Joined: 11/07/2009
MGoPoints: 3102
We’re 6-4 in their stadium

And three of those losses came under Rodriguez and Hoke, with two of them being close. PSU “white outs” have never seemed to phase our guys. They’ve meanwhile not seen anything approaching our D this year. A 10.5 spread spells “upset alert” to me. Main question will be whether we can avoid costly mistakes. Do that and this is anyone’s game, folks.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:01 PM
#180
Navy Wolverine
Navy Wolverine's picture
Joined: 09/26/2016
MGoPoints: 3768
IIRC

Weren't we 10.5 point favorites over MSU?

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:31 PM
#181
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 147119
It's time for us to win one

It's time for us to win one of those games we are not supposed to win, due to a bunch of absurdly lucky bounces, and defense and special teams making just enough plays to win . . . the way MSU always seems to do regularly against us and Ohio State, and the way Penn State always seems to do regularly against Ohio State.

Why not us?

 

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:09 PM
#182
big john lives on 67
big john lives on 67's picture
Joined: 02/15/2009
MGoPoints: 2799
M Defense

Barkley gets lost in the Bush. McSorley falls down the Hill.

M wins 19-17.

M defense will cause them to eventually panic. Franklin will make a key coaching error.

EUTM.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:14 PM
#183
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 147119
Beating Penn State is our

Beating Penn State is our birthright.

Go do it.

 

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:47 PM
(Reply to #158) #184
elhead
elhead's picture
Joined: 11/07/2009
MGoPoints: 3102
Exactly. PSU does not have a

Exactly. PSU does not have a good track record against Michigan, including in Beaver Stadium, where we are 6-4, with three of those losses under Rodriguez and Hoke, and two of them very close games.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:16 PM
#185
mfan92
Joined: 12/06/2016
MGoPoints: 469
We need the run game from

We need the run game from Indiana. Okorn to just make short completions. Control the clock keep the ball out of Penn st hands. Give defense a breather. Also need big special teams and defensive turnover. It can be done

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:17 PM
#186
UM Griff
Joined: 12/03/2016
MGoPoints: 9616
Love being the underdogs!

We will win, and all the sad PSU fans can use their white sweatshirts for crying towels.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:22 PM
#187
Qmatic
Qmatic's picture
Joined: 01/09/2013
MGoPoints: 14917
We will win. I think Hill is

We will win. I think Hill is quickly becoming the Lewis of our secondary. PSU doesn't have a Godwin type receiver that McSorley can just heave it up to. Their run blocking isn't that great. It will be an ugly game but I see us winning 19-14. We only score one TD but Nordin adds enough points to overcome that. Higdon gets over 100 yds and O'Korn finishes with just around 150 yds passing and turns it over < 2 times

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:25 PM
#188
AaronStark19
AaronStark19's picture
Joined: 09/05/2014
MGoPoints: 6024
I just can't

Picture us losing to Franklin

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:42 PM
#189
Walter Sobchak
Walter Sobchak's picture
Joined: 03/12/2010
MGoPoints: 9048
Dudes, we wasted this team

Dudes, we wasted this team last year. Their chump coach tucked his balls between his legs mid 3rd quarter. McSorley was eaten alive.

Our defense should keep us in it. OKorn will win it. I'm predicting a game like Purdue from him.

23-17 Michigan.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:01 PM
(Reply to #166) #190
WolverineMac
WolverineMac's picture
Joined: 02/14/2010
MGoPoints: 1913
Agree with you.

Magic number is 17. They won't score more than that. We will.

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October 15th, 2017 at 9:57 PM
#191
HailHail47
Joined: 10/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1793
Penn State had no answer for

Penn State had no answer for our defense last year, now they may be improved but by how much? Our defense is just as good as last year's. Penn State hasn't seen a defense like this. I'm confident that Don Brown will have us ready. If we catch a few breaks we can win.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:05 PM
#192
Michifornia
Michifornia's picture
Joined: 10/03/2013
MGoPoints: 11361
We got this!

Will turn it into unhappy valley for the local folks.

GO BLUE!!

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:07 PM
#193
Michigan4Harbaugh
Michigan4Harbaugh's picture
Joined: 01/20/2015
MGoPoints: 3393
It's probably very slim, but

It's probably very slim, but I'd be giddy if they came out wearing the 1997 road uniform! Also feeling good about the game. I know a lot of nits who are extremely nervous here in western PA.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:17 PM
#194
dundun44
dundun44's picture
Joined: 08/12/2016
MGoPoints: 4
Psu was limited

To 95 yards rushing against Northwestern. I did not watch the game but makes me have hope. Michigan will win. Go blue.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:47 PM
#195
slimj091
slimj091's picture
Joined: 01/04/2014
MGoPoints: 5356
If the team can make it

If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.

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October 15th, 2017 at 10:47 PM
#196
slimj091
slimj091's picture
Joined: 01/04/2014
MGoPoints: 5356
If the team can make it

If the team can make it through the game without getting penalized eleventy times for 500 yards then we have fighting chance.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:04 PM
#197
bluinohio
Joined: 08/24/2015
MGoPoints: 5084
Maize pants! That's all we

Maize pants! That's all we need to win.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:32 PM
#198
Year of Revenge II
Year of Revenge II's picture
Joined: 11/12/2013
MGoPoints: 8794
Take the points. We are due

Take the points.

We are due for a good game, and it is going to be easy to take us lightly.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:35 PM
#199
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 147119
Penn State's offense is based

Penn State's offense is based on rhythm and timing.

I actually think the bye week off hurts them more than it helps them.  They come out flat and disjointed, and a highly motivated Michigan team punches them in the mouth.

They are shocked, the crowd grows restless, they tighten up and make mistakes, and Michigan pulls out the win.

  

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:43 PM
#200
hokamania
Joined: 01/01/2013
MGoPoints: 5
14 pt

14 point spread for this game in Vegas at the beginning of the year. It's actually gone down somehow over the season. OSU game +8 at the being of season.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:53 PM
#201
BrewCityBlue
BrewCityBlue's picture
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: 2126
19-15

19-15 sick fuck enablers.

M def only gives up 10.

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:55 PM
#202
Ajcoss
Joined: 01/04/2017
MGoPoints: 1389
Brandon Peters

Anyone know Peters? Somebody needs to tell him he needs to reach out to Jim for a meeting, and plea to give him a shot this weekend. Sitting down with your coach and showing how bad you want it can't be a bad thing!!

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:05 AM
(Reply to #192) #203
Schemboeller Ca...
Schemboeller Carrbaugh's picture
Joined: 12/13/2015
MGoPoints: 883
Yeah Harbaugh seems like the

Yeah Harbaugh seems like the kind of coach where the ole "put me in coach" line will go over really well

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:11 AM
(Reply to #194) #204
Ajcoss
Joined: 01/04/2017
MGoPoints: 1389
Just seems

Like Peters is known for not being a "leader" and very vocal. I don't know the situation, but if he hasn't had a 1-1 meeting (per his request) thus far since the season started, he needs too. Shows he wants it and is ready. You don't Attack coach saying I gotta play. Just let him know you have been working hard and ready to play this weekend. Just saying it can't hurt!

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October 15th, 2017 at 11:59 PM
#205
emozilla
emozilla's picture
Joined: 11/20/2011
MGoPoints: 1154
IMHO hook is big here. 23-13

IMHO hook is big here. 23-13 PSU is my target score from a cold calculated betting standpoint. Take the points, Michigan covers on the road, and I would not be incredibly surprised if they manage the outright. My last three bets in Michigan games have all been against Michigan (MSU and OSU last year, Indiana this year -- 3/3), but I'm taking Michigan this week.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:06 AM
#206
Ecky Pting
Ecky Pting's picture
Joined: 09/06/2013
MGoPoints: 1744
Factoids: The largest

Factoids:

  • The largest underdog margin of the Harbaugh era
  • Only the fourth underdog margin thus far in JH tenure. JH's record so far is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) as an underdog (Utah and both OSU games, L/L/W ATS)
  • Largest underdog margin in any game since the 2014 OSU game (Hoke's denouement, +21.5 pts., W ATS)
  • First underdog margin vs. PSU since 2009 in Ann Arbor (RR, +4.5 pts., L ATS)
  • Largest underdog margin to PSU since 2008 in Happy Valley (RR, +24.5 pts., L ATS)

 

 

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:13 AM
#207
AMazinBlue
AMazinBlue's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 4805
I want to join the posbang party, but the numbers say

we don't win this one. Our sack totals have been dwindling the last few weeks and we have given up a few big plays.  A night game in Happy Valley, a white Out to boot, scares me..  Hope says we have come up big against PSU more often than not and I was at Michigan Stadium 2006 when Lloyd Carr argued to get two seconds put back on the clock in the final drive and Manningham caught the game winner at the back of the endzone with one second left.  We were second to last in scoring in the red zone that year two.

HOPE is a dangerous thing.  GO BLUE!!!

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:25 AM
#208
HailHail47
Joined: 10/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1793
Pressure is on Penn State,

Pressure is on Penn State, being ranked that high can get to your head. They may tend to play with a "let's not lose" mentality since they see themselves on the inside of the playoff hunt. We will be the aggressive team.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:36 AM
#209
Esterhaus
Esterhaus's picture
Joined: 03/16/2015
MGoPoints: 7509
We Have Nothing To Lose

And everything to gain. If we play this way, and Jim shakes up the playbook, we could actually win this one. I admit that I am on the fence in terms of whether I will watch the game live. Because without a good QB in Happy Valley our team could be a trainwreck and there are better things I can do with four hours of my time on a Saturday. It's nearly two grand for me if I do my work or I could use the time for the gym instead. I'll follow these boards and determine what makes sense for me.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:45 AM
(Reply to #200) #210
blahblahblahh
blahblahblahh's picture
Joined: 03/29/2014
MGoPoints: 2076
There is no subtle way to

There is no subtle way to mention how much you make in an online discussion about college football. Just an FYI.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:00 AM
(Reply to #201) #211
Esterhaus
Esterhaus's picture
Joined: 03/16/2015
MGoPoints: 7509
Granted

Crass. But it does point out the opportunity cost. Which I often accept because Michigan, projection and memories. I've slipped into this topic before. On other boards it's not an issue. Here, I acknowledge unwelcome. And I apologize for not editing that out. Go Blue!

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:59 AM
(Reply to #200) #212
Tedbossman
Tedbossman's picture
Joined: 01/07/2014
MGoPoints: 1737
Dang

You’re so cool and awesome

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:01 AM
(Reply to #200) #213
1989 UM GRAD
1989 UM GRAD's picture
Joined: 03/08/2012
MGoPoints: 1512061
You Need to Increase Your Hourly Rate

I'm out $2,004 in that four-hour window.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:55 AM
#214
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 10595
We found our go to back in Hidgon

All we need from O'Korn is to make some passes. I would not count us out  due to our D. The secondary is really improved and I think we will hang with PSU fairly tough. Our chance for winning this game will depend on how O'Korn plays. If some how he plays more like the 2nd half of Purdue we will have a chance of winning 27-24.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:55 AM
#215
fharajli
fharajli's picture
Joined: 06/09/2016
MGoPoints: 220
Not to be a pessimist...

but are we watching the same teams? I've seen a lot of PSU this year and they're the real deal. Even when Barkley was off his game against NW, they found ways to score. Hamilton is good. Their TE is good. Barkley of course. McSorley can actually throw, unlike JOK.Their defense is top-notch this year too. I want to believe. I just don't see it with the QB situation.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:29 AM
(Reply to #204) #216
Esterhaus
Esterhaus's picture
Joined: 03/16/2015
MGoPoints: 7509
I Do Believe

You have hit it on the head. Without a reliable QB, against a team that will score each quarter despite our superb defense, we will be left unable to catch up with corresponding scores. P-ew is going to score points every quarter. Us not so much. Unless there is some radical revision to our playbook that our QB can manage to execute. I am most unhappy with the likely scenarios.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:15 AM
#217
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 10595
They have played a bunch of shit teams

Michigan defense will be the real deal for them. PSU needs a good ass kicking. Look at the upset of top 10 teams by lesser teams than Michigan talent last week. I'm glad their 10 point favorites and looking forward to Nitny Lion tears.

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:22 AM
(Reply to #209) #218
WorldwideTJRob
Joined: 07/05/2010
MGoPoints: 12979
There is one constant in

There is one constant in those upsets that we saw...the underdog is at home(outside of MSU) and is playing off a hostile crowd. We are on the road, and have not had too many good results playing night games away from home.

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:26 AM
#219
JamieH
Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 12972
Why are (some) people giving up?

Penn State should have lost to Iowa.  Granted it was on the road, but these guys aren't invincible.  

Yeah, we are rightfully underdogs, and as of now, we don't seem to have a QB.  So we've got problems.  We also have a fantastic defense, and that means we can make a game of it.  We will need some breaks, and we need O'Korn or SOMEONE to hit some passes.  It doesn't seem like it is a likely win, but it certainly wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen this season, not by a longshot.  

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October 16th, 2017 at 7:26 AM
(Reply to #211) #220
WorldwideTJRob
Joined: 07/05/2010
MGoPoints: 12979
Ppl are not giving up, but

Ppl are not giving up, but Iowa at night has some type of weird mojo going on in that stadium, so I don’t know if that’s the best comparison. Most are taking a wait and see approach to the game. Nothing about our passing game is something to feel confident about right now, and has most fans worried going into our toughest game to date.

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October 16th, 2017 at 6:58 AM
#221
GOBLUE58
GOBLUE58's picture
Joined: 08/07/2015
MGoPoints: -3
Psu 35-20

Curse of all white uniforms.

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October 16th, 2017 at 8:59 AM
#222
Alumnus93
Joined: 09/10/2009
MGoPoints: 5794
My gosh our OL sucks. When

My gosh our OL sucks. When are we gonna have a dominant line of old. Harbaugh been here three years and yet we still have no OT

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October 16th, 2017 at 11:12 AM
#223
fksljj
fksljj's picture
Joined: 11/27/2016
MGoPoints: -9997905
I don't bet anymore but back

I don't bet anymore but back when I did I betted against Michigan plenty of times when I knew they'd lose, especially to o$u. Some might call it being a bad fan but I call it putting money in my pocket. This would be a game where I would take Penn State on the moneyline. Betting on the spread is too risky, especially when those half points are involved.

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October 16th, 2017 at 12:28 PM
#224
jdon
jdon's picture
Joined: 09/28/2009
MGoPoints: 5411
Shit... I took Indiana last week...

sadly, you are better off going against us than for us...

now, with us getting 10.5 on the road and showing no propensity to lose by more than 7 during the Harbaugh years, I like us this weekend to cover.

jdon

 

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October 16th, 2017 at 1:47 PM
#225
Mpfnfu Ford
Mpfnfu Ford's picture
Joined: 05/19/2012
MGoPoints: 2146
I'll take Michigan

And it's not for homerism reasons, I just don't see Penn State being able to win by that kind of margin against Michigan's defense. Obviously turnovers could do it, so it's possible. But my money will be on Michigan +10.5 in a real sludgefart 13-6 type of game.

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October 21st, 2017 at 1:52 PM
#226
Harbaugh's Left...
Harbaugh&#039;s Left Elbow's picture
Joined: 08/22/2016
MGoPoints: 4441
Line's down to 8.5 to 7.5,

Line's down to 8.5 to 7.5, depending who you're placing your bets with.

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October 21st, 2017 at 2:27 PM
(Reply to #246) #227
FauxMo
FauxMo's picture
Joined: 06/17/2010
MGoPoints: 87801
Yeah, I saw that this morning

Yeah, I saw that this morning too. I see a pretty narrow range from 7 to 8.5. This could easily be "Michigan fan money" coming in the day of the game, but I will allow myself to believe it is "sharp money" that actually thinks Michigan might pull the upset. Yeah, it's sharp money. The fix is in... ;-) 

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