Predict the 1st Pass of Playoff Committee Picks
We are mid week quieter period where we are done over analyzing the past opponent and still gearing up for the next, so for some fun (and yes it doesn't matter in a month) what is your prediction for what the committee will do with the top 4 with seeds? Don't post your personal seeding but what you think goes down tonight.
I'd like to see the playoff committee go off track with the polls and I think the chance is there with Clemson or LSU in particular:
- LSU
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- TCU
Next 2:
- Baylor
- Stanford
Some reasoning:
- Clemson (SOS 28) has some of the best advanced stats in the nation plus a win over ND...but that's their only top notch win. LSU has Florida as their big win which is looking better by the week.
- LSU is 2-0 vs Sagarin top 30, Clemson is 1-0, OSU/Baylor/TCU have played no top 30 Sagarin teams.
- TCU > Baylor as TCU SOS is 53, Baylor 103 (Sagarin)
- I picked Stanford (SOS 23) as #6 over Iowa, MSU, Alabama, ND, Florida, Utah, and Oklahoma just because I thought P12 needed some representation and their road loss is to a decent team in game 1. If the committee wants to reward a 1 loss team Stanford or Bama are the way to go. If its record above all else that 6th spot prob is Iowa/MSU.
- Stanford is 3-0 vs Sagarin top 30 teams
- Alabama is 4-1 vs Sagarin top 30 teams
- LSU has SOS 37 and OSU 68 if you are curious
- Of other P5 undefeated: Iowa SOS is 47, MSU 59, OK State 70
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. Baylor
6. Michigan State
7. Iowa
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November 3rd, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
I originally posted this with Clemson #1, LSU #2 but I am flip flopping it based on Clemson playing only 1 Sagarin top 30 team in ND. But I do think those will be #1 and #2 based on OSU Baylor and TCU not playing a single one among all 3!
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^
I like your ranking just because we'd get a chance to see Urban Meyer honor Woody Hayes by punching a Clemson defensive player after an interception!
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:39 PM ^
Art Schlichter was the Buckeye QB. He is currently serving a ten yr sentence for theft and fraud.
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^
Good to see that Ohio State is still keeping their great QB traditions alive.
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^
Schlichter was interviewed and noted that he threw that interception. He was haunted by the fact that if he doesn't throw that pick, Woody doesn't throw the punch and gets to finish his career with dignity. Alluded to the fact that the event triggered and/or accelerated his slide involving lots of gambling and drugs.
But whatever ... rankings announced in a few minutes!!!
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:51 PM ^
I hate those bastards as much as any of you, but I feel bad for Woody there. He was better than that. And I'm pretty sure Bo was one of the first people to call Woody post-incident.
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^
I'm not a Woody hater (in light of his continuing friendship with Bo he gets a pass), but this was not an isolated incident. Two examples (the banner incident certainly did not occur without Hayes's blessing):
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
UNREAL! I never knew this even happened as it took place before I was even born. It makes me hate them even more!
November 4th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
No doubt. I still feel for him. Woody was just as insane about steering fundraising to OSU's academic campaigns and encouraging his players to get post-graduate degrees in law and medicine.
In other bio's from the era, it's apparent that there was a movement to begin forcing him out after the season. No way in hell that's happening if OSU is closing out the decade the same way they started it.
November 3rd, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:48 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
Personally I would rate them
1. LSU
2. TCU
3. Clemson
4. OSU
5. Baylor
6. MSU
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
1. OSU
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Baylor
5. TCU
6. MSU
7. Bama
8. Iowa
14. Michigan
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
I would be surprised if OSU is #1 tonight because the committee is supposed to be about this year only. OSU's best win is.... uhh... PSU. Their 2nd best win is 4-4 Indiana.
But if so it would shed a lot of light on their process.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
Yeah, I see your point, but last year FSU looked way worse than OSU does this year, and they were still up at #2 so the comittee definently takes the previous year into account a little bit.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
But 2014 FSU had beaten OK State on the road (not a great OK State), Notre Dame, Louisville (who finished 9-3 in regular season) and Clemson going into week 1 of playoff committee. They were also one of only two undefeated P5 teams in the country.
Again 2015 OSU's best win is PSU. Their 2nd best win is a .500 Indiana? There are multiple undefeated teams this year.
Those are 2 diff resumes.
If OSU is #1 it will tell me the committee is suspect. I would say the same if it was Oklahoma and they had the same resume OSU currently does.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
Do they factor in things like the strength of the team when they faced each other?
If that's the case, I'd make an argument that VaTech was OSU's best win so far. If they hadn't lost their starting QB Michael Brewer, or their All-American CB Kendall Fuller for extended amount of time, they probably would have been a 9-10 win team this season.
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^
You know it pains me to say this as a lifelong Michigan fan, but until the defending champion is beaten, I think they deserve to be #1.
Besides, imagine how much this would parallel 1969 if undefeated, #1 OSU came into the Big House to play Michigan.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
Don't you think you are overrating Oklahoma State just a little?
November 4th, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^
I think he means Oregon State. That would make more sense.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
You serious, Clark? MSU will not be #3. I doubt they will be better than #6.
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:55 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^
How about stubbling with almost every team on their schedule, some of whom are down right awful. Style points matter. You can bitch and complain about Baylor's schedule all you want, but they have won there games without leaving any doubt. MSU has failed to do that. Either one will be in the playoff if they win out however.
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 7:24 PM ^
I'll bet the committee disagrees with you, and does not have MSU in the top 3...
EDIT: I was wrong, and I fully admit it here. MSU was not ranked 6th. They were ranked 7th in the initial CFP rankings...
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^
Michigan
:(
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^
39th
0-2 vs Sagarin top 30.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
1. The University of Mother Fucking Michigan Wolverines Go God Damned Blue FUCK YEAH
2. Don't care
3. Don't care
4. Don't care
5. OSU
6. LSU
7. Clemson
8. Alabama
.
.
.
36. MSU
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
Ha - 4 spots for 5 'power conferences'. Anyways...
I've got to go with the S&P ratings and say the top 4 should belong to:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^
My one oddball prediction is that we'll see Alabama (or maybe Stanford) in the top 4. A lot of the the undefeated teams have played garbage schedules, and committee members have emphasized looking at more than just win-loss record.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^
I'd have a hard time seeing them in top 4 with LSU there but I could see them in slot 5 over Baylor. Alabama SOS is 9 and they have played 5 top 30 teams (4-1). Meanwhile Baylor SOS is in the 100s with obviously 0 wins over top 30 teams. It would be a nice statement to Baylor to stop scheduling complete garbage in OOC.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
I think looking at Sagarin it will come out -
1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Stanford
5. LSU
6. Baylor
I just don't see them rewarding the Big 12 teams for playing hot garbage OOC.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
I agree on Baylor's OOC schedule but Bama's isn't much to write home about either. After Wisconsin, it's Charleston Southern, Louisiana Monroe and Middle Tennessee. The reason Bama is rated so high is the computers love the SEC. There's 8 SEC teams in the Top 30 of the Sagarin rankings.
Baylor still has 3 games left against teams ranked in the Top 15 of sagarin - TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^
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November 3rd, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
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November 3rd, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
I picked Stanford (SOS 23) as #6 over Iowa, MSU, Alabama, ND, Florida, Utah, and Oklahoma just because I thought P12 needed some representationLast year, the preconceived notions about conference relative strength were proven to be dead wrong. The SEC West was thought to be an NFL-light division and the B1G was thought to be terrible. Oops, the top 5 SEC West teams all lost their bowls and the top 3 B1G teams all won theirs, including the National Championship by significant underdog Ohio State in fairly convincing manner. What's the takeaway? Make each of the four entrants win their way into their spot by winning their regions (conferences). No mulligans to teams that finish second to their league champ. (I'm not quite sure how to treat ND from this perspective, but I don't think they'll be a Top 4 team in the end. I'd almost go so far as to split the rankings into five conference brackets, and then rank the top team in each bracket 1-5. Team number 5 gets left out. I think in practice this is what the committee will do in it's final ranking. Maybe for show they don't constrain their rankings until then.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
ND vs Stanford soon so it will take care of itself.
Stanford almost lost last week however. But if Utah wins the south with only 1 loss more and Stanford beats them in the P12 championship game and then ND on top of their 3 other top 30 wins and their only loss is in game 1 I can't see them out of the playoffs.
Utah also still has a chance. Obviously they need to not lose again and beat Stanford in the P12 CG.
November 3rd, 2015 at 5:46 PM ^
It could happend. Clemson, a Big Ten team, Big 12 team, and undefeated LSU would all be in front of Stanford.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
When Bama disbatches LSU and Michigan beats OSU it will be all jacked up...bring the Elite Eight Playoff!
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
but I think Memphis --- a team not mentioned in the first 25 posts in this thread --- will be in this week's Top 4.
My top 4 --- looking strictly at the resumes AS TO DATE --- would be Clemson, LSU, Iowa, Memphis.
November 3rd, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
November 3rd, 2015 at 6:19 PM ^
If Memphis is in, then the committee isn't trying very hard...or they're trying way too hard to wow everyone. Memphis was down double-digits to Tulane and just gave up 42 to Tulsa. They are this year's cute story team
Should they get a chance to play a real top 4 team, they will be mercilessly slaughtered. Like Hawaii v Georgia in 2008 or Cincinnati v Florida in 2009.