Michigan opened -28 against Illinois

Submitted by FauxMo on

Already up to -34 on one book I saw. Um, yeah, at -28, lock of the year. I mean, based on the Rutgerz Transitive Property (RTP, that's TM), we should beat Illinois by 61, right? I have a feeling Illinois' coach is not going to be...feeling the..."Love" after next weekend... 

 

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Indonacious

October 17th, 2016 at 1:37 AM ^

You do realize we clobbered penn state by 39 points and according to S&P metrics penn state is #20 and Illinois is #82. We are basically 38 point favorites per that metric and at home.

Keep in mind that since taco and lewis have come back we have basically elimanted team's offenses with 10, 7, 0 points respectively. I expect our defensive stats to improve as more data accumalates with us at full strength.

Joined: 01/03/2012

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ijohnb

October 17th, 2016 at 5:26 AM ^

a pretty good bet. It's also possible that we are a little rusty after the bye and Illinois is super jacked. Rutgers is a special kind of bad. Illinois is a lot better than Rutgers. Illinois just played Rutgers in the road in a game that was over at halftime. Vegas is usually fairly accurate in an "all things considered" way. I don't think this bet is any more of a lock than any other week.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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Yo_Blue

October 17th, 2016 at 9:11 AM ^

Not bye-week, improvement-week.  There will be no rust.  Just a bunch of players who got a bit of a chance to rest their boo boos and get healthy.

Joined: 08/24/2010

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Goggles Paisano

October 16th, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^

That's not really the opening line in Vegas.  That may have been one obscure offshore facility that put that out there.  Most if not all Vegas houses will likely open around that 34 mark or higher.  That opening line "thing" on vegasinsider.com is something that should usually be disregarded.  

Joined: 07/30/2011

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Honey Badger

October 16th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

I have always thought Illinois should be good. They can tap big Midwest cities for recruiting and is a little closer to the south for recruiting. I never understood why they always struggle. Reminds me a bit of Arizona State.

Joined: 06/15/2015

MGoPoints: 3676

UMfan21

October 16th, 2016 at 5:16 PM ^

There are two risks to betting on this line:

1. Coming out of a bye week, will we be rusty?

2. Will the starters be pulled early to ensure they are healthy vs. MSU.

I also expect Illinois to have a pulse on defense and not let Bobby Hendersen walk in untouched.

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 51217

LSAClassOf2000

October 16th, 2016 at 5:16 PM ^

Now, is the Rutgers Transitive Property merely about margin of victory except in those rare cases where Rutgers somehow accidentally beat an FCS or Division II team? Just curious on this one. 

I wonder if we could also develop a metric where the severity of loss is measured in "Rutgers" too. Every 10 points could be one "Rutgers". So, Rutgers lost to us by 7.8 Rutgers, for example.

Joined: 01/07/2011

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