Michigan 15.5 Favorite Over Maryland
Most sites have Michigan as a 15.5 favorite over Maryland
As someone who just put a large amount of cash on Michigan to cover would love to get your thoughts
Positive Factors:
- Maryland playing their 4th string QB
- Michigan coming in playing their best ball of Big 10 season (covering easily against Minnesota and missing covering agianst Rutgers by 1)
- Maryland not a particularly hostile place to play
- Incentive to give DJ some karma for OSU two years ago
Thoughts?!
November 7th, 2017 at 11:48 AM ^
That's a low number. Also, how is OSU -16 vs. MSU? That's seems insane.
November 7th, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
Last I saw that OSU number was down to -14.5 which is still quite high.
OSU versus a team with a pulse this season has done the following:
- lost to OU, 31-16
- beat PSU, 39-38
- lost to Iowa, 55-21
November 7th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
Ohio State and Penn State had huge hangovers last Saturday. Both Iowa and Michigan State got the Light version of those teams. Michigan State is going to get OSU's best game of the season to this point. That number is a little high but I think it is for good reason.
November 7th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
An argument could be made that the weather delay in that PSU/MSU game benefitted the Spartans in terms of momentum. It was only 14-7 at the time but felt like PSU was starting to take control. Three hours later, it might as well have been 0-0 again.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:22 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
harder you work, the luckier you get. This is not Mork's first run around the block, and you have to acknowledge a pretty strong return this year from a shyte season.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^
I think he is better at Tressell Ball than Tressell was. Just keep every game close, and hope that something happens at the end to swing it your way. And man, it seems to swing his way in almost every game he is able to keep close.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
I mean if I didnt know better I'd swear Dantonio puts together special game plans when weather is forecasted to be shitty. Almost like he's planning for it or something.
Cant be - must be just dumb luck.
November 7th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^
They have technology to forecast weather ahead of time? Shit, someone should go let Harbaugh n co know.
They clearly missed the memo against MSU.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^
didn't notice that trend when the weather came. It already looked to me like a game State was going to win or be a really close game. But I don't think it is homerish to note that Penn State was playing MSU after the Michigan homecoming game and at OSU, their two biggest games of the season, the second being lost in devastating fashion. I don't think MSU got Penn State's best, that's all, but I think they are going to get that from OSU.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^
I thought PSU had the ball when the weather delay hit. My mistake.
Also, I am far from what you just described but thanks for your sweeping generalization.
November 8th, 2017 at 8:09 AM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
generally plays well against Ohio State, even when it seems like they are at a huge disadvantage, like two years ago when they had no QB playing in Columbus.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
I'm not sure that I would go that far, which is why that score is unbelievable.
November 7th, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
Would I be surpsied if OSU blows them out 49-21? No -- OSU is a lot more talented. And I expect OSU to win by a TD or perhaps two. But OSU has looked just OK to bad (from a betting perspective) three different times this year.
- Oklahoma dominated them
- Penn State (i.e., the team MSU just beat) was ahead most of the game and JT Barrett played lights out to win the game -- will he have that confidence after a disasterous performance against Iowa?
- Iowa dominated them
- plus OSU has beaten no one of consequence by 17-plus points this year (unlike many Top 20 teams)
....so I think you have to take 16 points, if you're putting money down.
I realize OSU is at home and the weather is forecast to be fine. But OSU *barely* beat 3-9 MSU last year, and that OSU team was better and that MSU team was worse.
MSU, understandably, won't be intimidated (they won last time they played a "top" OSU team in Columbus) and should play like there is nothing to lose; if OSU falls behind (a la another 1st quarter pick 6), they likely will tighten up so much, Urbz might start rubbing his head and start eating pizza slices on the side line.
November 7th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
I was surprised by that, too. I though it'd be OSU by 8-10. The Michigan line seems about right, though. U-M needs to prove it can play well on the road (although I'd expect a lot of Michigan fans there).
November 7th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
This will be an easier environment than Purdue was, possibly by a pretty big margin.
November 7th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
Well, the weather forecast for Columbus right now is clear and halfway pleasant so the great equalizer (shit weather) MSU has been granted for their 2 biggest wins will be absent. Maybe we see the true Sparty this weekend?
November 7th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^
I'm sure he is referring to being up 14-3 on us before the skies opened up and the 3 1/2 hour delay last weekend which would seem to benefit the home team as they have all of the amenities to stay fresher and more focused.
November 7th, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^
It was 14-10 when the rain really came.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
The circumstances....everything about that delay helped MSU. PSU didnt like playing on that wet field, MSU lives for it. PSU was completely different after the delay compared to before, its psychological which is disease for destruction in CFB.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
lol the ways we rationalize why MSU wins games. So bad weather and weather delays benefit MSU while hurting their opponents both at home and on the road?
Sorry, but this sounds dangerously close to "better coaching."
November 7th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
have been vocal in my praise for what MSU has done this year. They have surprised me and I think they are a good team. It does not undercut that for me to say that I think they played Penn State is an absolutely optimal situation last Saturday for them to win the game.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
It's common knowledge that bad weather tends to equalize talent disparities. It's why spreads tighten when rain is forecasted.
November 7th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^
I think we are persistently underestimating MSU because half their returning starters got dismissed from the team, and they are doing what they are doing with walk-ons and true freshmen playing key roles.
Much as it galls me, Dantonio is the no-doubt, hands down B1G Coach of the Year if he wins two of his next three games, and he's still in the discussion if they win even one game. The fact that he is a classless jerk who personifies the term "sore winner," and he's on the cusp of winning the B1G East after a 3-9 season when Jim Harbaugh hasn't had even a sniff in three seasons is just hard for us to grasp.
However, I think his comeuppance is drawing close. As good a coach as he is, he won't be able to withstand OSU, PSU and Michigan (and maybe even Maryland) with stable programs, competent coaching, and consistently out-recruting him. Guile and luck only last so long.
November 7th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
Wait, so MSU is "on the cusp" of winning the Big Ten East because all they have to do is beat OSU, but Harbaugh "hasn't even sniffed it" despite being 6 inches from beating OSU?
How does that work?
November 7th, 2017 at 2:55 PM ^
post is confusing to me, for the reason that Doc points out and for another reason. He is doing it right now with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State having stable programs, competent coaching, and superior recruiting. If there was going to be a comeuppance it was going to be immediately after last year. After watching what they have done this year I think they will be in the thick of things as long as Danton;e is there and even after that if they hire well when he retires.
November 8th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
didn't like playing a wet field? Its November in the Midwest - the weather isn't going be great. In fact, it feels like it rains damn near every day. Teams need to sack up and play. If you're the better team, you shouldn't need ideal conditions to be able to prove it.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^
The weather forecast must be sunny with no chance of rain.
If rain does enter the forecast for that game though, I'm betting the house and taking MSU with the money line.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:07 PM ^
0% chance of rain. As of right now on Accu Weather for Columbus.
November 7th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^
An article in today's Baltimore Sun reports Max Bortenschlager is currently a game-time decision against Michigan. Ryan Brand is likely the next QB up if Bortenschlager is out.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/tracking-the-terps/bs-sp-maryl…
November 7th, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
Really like Michigan in this spot, their confidence is sky high following the wins over 2 complete deadbeats. Hard to see Maryland getting past 14 points meaning Michigan will only need 28 or 31 points to get the cover. Lay the points!
November 7th, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
just lost to Rutgers
so yeah, line seems low
November 7th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
I know it's a road game for Michigan, but I feel like that's all Maryland has going in it's favor right now.
I honestly don't know what Durkin can plan for this game from an offensive standpoint. Behind a fourth string walk-on, your playbook has to be severely limited. Never mind the fact that you're going against one of the better defenses in the country and a vicious, man-eating DL. Hand the ball off and pray your OL opens just enough holes? Chuck up some hail marys and hope for the best? Trick plays or a lot of reverses/misdirection? Couple that with the fact that Maryland's defense is not that good. With their secondary being garbage, it could be a great time for Peters to start airing it out and see what he's got.
Michigan is starting to play it's best football right now, and I assume there will be plenty of Michigan fans packing the stands for this game, so it'll be more of a neutral site game than a road game. I know this is why the game is played on the field and not on paper, but barring a slew of defensive breakdowns this game could be a massacre.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
November 7th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
The 2015 game very much felt like a neutral site affair. Part of this probably had to do with inclement weather (Hurricane Joaquin threatened the week of) and the malaise of Randy Edsall's last days, but regardless, the maize and blue faithful really made themselves heard throughout the game. It was a good time.
After last week's loss to Rutgers and the ungodly QB situation I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge faction of UM fans and a quick exit for Terp fans if Maryland gets down by a few scores.
November 7th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
It will be similar to 2015. There are still plenty of seats at face on umterps.com
November 7th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
It might be worse. I got a call a few weeks ago from Maryland's athletic ticket department noting that I bought tickets to the Michigan game a few years ago and inquiring if I wanted to purchase again this year. I gotta say, that's an interesting marketing strategy, I might not have thought they would be actively recruiting oposing teams' fans.
November 7th, 2017 at 9:26 PM ^
November 8th, 2017 at 3:36 AM ^
the last thing i would do is let him air it out. bad QB play is about the only chance MD has to stay close to UM. don't make mistakes, run the ball and let the D win it. sprinkle in some high percentage passes or passes on run downs.
we lost to msu because we aired it out. run the ball and we win that game.