Hockey NCAA tournament bid/seeding update
This is probably a bit excessive given the quantity of hockey threads now available, but I thought it would be nice to reset where Michigan stands regarding the NCAA tournament.
For starters, if you weren't already aware, Michigan is now a 100% lock for a bid. That is, by far, the big news. They are currently ranked #8 in the Pairwise Ratings, which is a mathematical model that perfectly replicates the NCAA rankings for hockey. Those less familiar with the system will be interested to know that it is a 100% objective, numbers based system to determine bids and seeds.
They are 3 ten-thousanths of a point behind now tied with Clarkson in the RPI (and ahead by common opponent record), which means they could jump Clarkson to #7 with a good finish to the conference tournament; it is virtually impossible for them to ascend any higher than that. According to collegehockeynews.com's Pairwise Probability Matrix, Michigan has a 41% chance of earning a #2 seed in the tournament, a 59% chance of earning a #3 seed, and a 0.1% chance of being someone's worst nightmare #4 seed.
This means that we can start looking at potential matchups. It's still early, with a lot of games left to play and a lot of changes left to occur, but Michigan is looking at a 2-3 game somewhere in three weeks.
The committee won't pair Michigan with a team from its conference, so if OSU drops from the #4 spot, they will be placed in a separate region from Michigan. So will Penn State, if they hold on to their #11 position. Minnesota also has a better than 50% chance of being a #3. None of these teams will play Michigan in the opening round.
Michigan's natural opponent right now at the 9 spot (the first 3 seed) is UMD, which is my personal nightmare. There's a lot to change between now and then. Other possible three-seed opponents include Northeastern and Providence.
If Michigan drops to a three, they're looking at Minnesota State, Denver, Clarkson, Northeastern, or UMD again. Denver is the one I would not want to play from a hockey standpoint. I think a rematch against Clarkson would be very attractive.
Where is Michigan going? Too soon to tell, but it will probably depend upon which #1 seed they are paired with. FWIW Notre Dame probably goes to Allentown, unless North Dakota makes the tournament and forces Saint Cloud out that way. I think Michigan has a decent chance to get shipped to Sioux Falls if Saint Cloud is there, but they really could go anywhere.
God I love my Michigan Hockey and Basketball right now...so much fun.
I just can't stop smiling at the fact that this thread even exists in 2018. Amazing.
Let's win this B1G hockey tournament next week. Why not?
Well techniquely the big ten hockey championship game is two weeks from today.
Sure they can. The only prohibition in the first round is against intra-conference matchups. Rematches are uncommon but fine.
I'm surprised too, but the numbers don't lie. They finished the season on a pretty down note, but they now cannot lose anymore games, so their numbers are relatively static. Consider that the difference between their RPI and that of the team below them, UNO, is roughly the same as the difference between Michigan's RPI at 7/8 and that of Providence at 12. There aren't that many games to play to turn things around. And, at 13, there would need to be four stolen bids to drop them. They're pretty safe.
Oddly, the probability index gives them a better chance to move up to 12 than to stay at 13. It kinda makes sense if you consider that Providence and UMD both have playoff series coming up that threaten losses to inferior teams. The B1G could easily wind up with three #3 seeds.
An odd location, but that is my preference. Not too bad of a drive for me. The hockey regionals have been fun to watch in the past. You get to see some teams you wouldn't normally get a chance to watch. We really enjoyed going to Cincinnati the last time Michigan was in the tourney.
They've been ice cold lately and are fortunate to still be hanging around the 2-seed line after how their 2018 has gone. They've gone 5-5-5 this year including an 8 game winless streak they only just broke last weekend. That would be a nice opening round game
Playing Duluth would also give me uncomfortable flashbacks
Given a pretty normal set of outcomes over the next couple of weeks, I'm getting something like this:
Sioux Falls Regional
#1 St Cloud State v Mercyhurst
Michigan v Minnesota-Duluth
Bridgeport Regional
#4 Minnesota State v Providence
Denver v Minnesota
Allentown Regional
#2 Notre Dame v Bowling Green
Clarkson v Penn State
Worcester Regional
#3 Cornell v Nebraska-Omaha
Ohio State v Northeastern
Penn State is locked into the Allentown Regional, because they are the hosts. This pretty much means Michigan can not go to Allentown, because of the prohibition on first-round intraconference matchups.
If North Dakota makes the tournament, they will likely be a 4-seed, and they would be locked into Sioux Falls as a host. That would require a big re-shuffling of teams.
For those of us that are fans but don't follow in that detail, it's appreciated.
The semifinal times are set for Saturday, March 10:
#4 Penn State at #1 Notre Dame, 5:30 (ESPNU)
#3 Michigan vs #2 Ohio State at Nationwide Arena, 7:30 (BTN)
The games are both televised on "normal" channels, but there will be half an hour or so of overlap. Because Ohio State does not have a hockey rink, they will play their "home" game at the home of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Nationwide Arena.