Charles Matthews not invited to NBA Combine?
According to this list from Yahoo Sports, it appears that Charles Matthews didn't receive a combine invite, which goes against what was previously reported.
https://sports.yahoo.com/complete-2018-nba-draft-combine-list-211843026…
Obviously this bodes well for his chances of returning. Interestingly enough MSU's Nick Ward, IU's Juwan Morgan and Purdue's Carsen Edwards also didn't get invites, so they also will most likely be back
Misinterpretation is possible. I was surprised when I saw the report of Matthews being invited to the Combine because he was not on most top 100 prospect lists, and only about 70 prospects get invited each year.
What was lost in that report is that there are three different communications from the league after the initial questionnaire. The initial questionnaire from the NBA asks if they will participate in the Combine if invited, but it is NOT an invitation.
The NBA will send three types of email communications:
(1) a Draft Combine invitation without a requirement to participate in on-court basketball activities,
(2) a conditional Draft Combine invitation with a requirement to fully participate, including all on-court basketball activities, and
(3) a letter of consideration and request for information stating that you will be contacted again once a determination regarding your invitation status has been made.
It's possible someone on Matthews' team or Woo misinterpreted the letter of consideration as an actual invite.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2018DIEnf_orcement_NBAEducationalMemo_20180313.pdf
Matthews is ranked 69th on NBAdraft.net top 100 big board and I can't find any credible top 100 boards without him on it (it is admittedly difficult to find boards going beyond two rounds/top 60ish).
Just pointing out that it wasn't much of a surprise when it was announced that he was invited, but certainly less of a surprise to find out now that he didn't seem to make the final cut, even if he was initially contacted to gauge interest from his side.
He's not ready for the NBA. He's just not.
No shame in that.
It will still be there next year.
So about 50 more than the number of players invited to the combine last season. There's ready to contribute to winning teams and then there's ready to play some minutes in the NBA. You don't have to be the former to be the latter.
Mentioning all that to say we can't assume Matthews returns. He could still bet on himself to be one of those 50 or so, start getting paid, and get to free agency more quickly. If you stick that route is often more profitable over 5 years than coming back for a year to be a late first rounder.
Hope he stays but he may yet choose to develop in the G League rather than here.
in the Association? The G league doesn't get much publicity so unless you're looking, you aren't going to hear anything from them.
Would that be something like tracking careers of combine guys who returned vs. those that went late/undrafted and took the G League route? I mention the combine group because that would at least pre-screen for guys the NBA is putting consideration into.
The option to combine and return is relatively new and the G/D League has changed a lot over the last 5 years or so. Think you'd need some length of time to get meaningful data given small samples of returness and uniqueness of individual situations. I might be missing a more obvious way to compare.
What I can tell you is G League call-ups have gone up dramatically over the last 5 years. I'd largely attribute that to the league evolving into a more clear minor league developmental system as only a few teams owned or had single-affiliate relationships with then D League teams until around 2010.
TL;DR the league has recently established itself as a real path to the Association with team-affiliated coaching improvements driving skills development and teaching NBA systems. Whether that's better or not for development probably depends on the player, school and how well-run the affiliate is. Returning to a Michigan is a lot better league prep than returning to a Syracuse.
To your point on attention though: if Matthews wants the bright lights next year Michigan offers a lot more of that than the minors.
Guys who go pro and aren't going to be first rounders have one big compelling reason behind the decision and that's hitting UFA quickly.
Rookie contracts are amazing deals for teams – particularly under the new CBA – which is also a big reason why so many rookies are on rosters now. An example of two NBA players who aren't that dissimilar in accomplishments:
- Clint Capela, #25 in 2014 NBA draft: $6,062,688 career earnings, will be an RFA in 2018
- Jordan Clarkson, #46 in 2014 NBA draft: $25,414,895 career earnings, 2 years/$25,937,500 remaining
Matthews doesn't have to be Jordan Clarkson to get an uptick in salary from being a late first rounder. Guys like Vanvleet, TJ McConnell and Ron freakin' Baker are all UFAs who are going to make far more money in the early part of their careers than their late first counterparts. If Matthews comes back he's looking at restricted free agency in 2024. It can certainly go the other way, too, but this is why there are record numbers of guys going pro early.
Again, I hope he comes back. I think he will. Sam Webb did a roundtable with the assistant coaches and in tone they implied they think he'll be back (obviously they didn't say so explicitly). I'm just saying we can't assume guys who aren't locks for the first round or to be drafted are coming back because that's not what's happening in basketball.
The benefit in Capela's case is his next contract will dwarf Clarkson because he managed to not only make it through the rookie contract duration, yet is now proving to be quite invaluable to the Rockets' success. So I see Capela/Clarkson as a bit of an incomplete comparison.
Mitch McGary was 21st in that same draft and is out of the league. He got his rookie contract and that was it, so being a first rounder gets you paid even if you don't stick. It's a higher ceiling.
So if risk averse, go if only you will be in the first round to make some life-changing money. If risk neutral (or risk loving), give the 2nd round or UFA route a go and bet on yourself and make more money sooner (e.g. Clarkson).
Funny aside, I thought the name was "Van Bleep" whenever I heard it. Imagine my disappointment to learn it's "VanVleet"...
Some of those rookies were over 30. They didn't include 50 players that missed out on combine invites last year. A lot of them came from foreign leagues and/or had been out of school for years.
If we define rookies as players who were in the position Matthews would be, 1st year out of school, 1st year draft eligible, the number goes way down. There were around 20 bypassed in the 2017 draft and some of those would have had combine invites.
Further, a large minority of those undrafted rookies appeared in just a handful of games. They aren't on NBA rosters. They were on two-way contracts, filled in when there was an injury and didn't make much money.
Here's the list and their stats. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_rookies.html
If he returns this defense will be absurd. Shooting will obviously be a question mark, but the defense alone should carry us to at least a top 3 Big Ten finish with the state of the conference being rather "meh."
That isn't terribly surprising about Matthews. I'm a little shocked that Edwards isn't more highly regarded, but at the same time, I could easily see him getting pegged as a guy with no position.
How did Carson Edwards NOT get invited? That's a huge oversight.
He's not in any mock drafts I've seen. As I alluded to in my other post, I think there are questions about whether he'd have a position in the league. He's listed at 6'1" (which might be generous) but hasn't really shown point guard/playmaking skills despite being a good ballhandler. He isn't an elite athlete, and his best attribute, being able to physically overpower opponents, vanishes in the league. You combine those questions with this being considered an especially deep draft, and I could see why he could go undrafted.
But it seems to me most people on this board have no idea how talented the NBA is when talking about Big Ten and especially UMIch players. Put a list together of the 10 best players from the Big Ten and show me any difference makers. Not to mention maybe 15 guys in the league really change your team outlook in the NBA
the consensus here is he's not ready............but will be a first rounder if he returns.
Not sure what the prize is, and you may not want it, but you win!!
Because I just do not know.
Has there ever been anyone NOT invited to the combine that has still entered the draft?
At this point, it would be ridiculous for him to enter. He would be throwing away millions and waste away in the G-league if he left now. Come back, fix up your game, and go next year.
I can remember Josh Richardson off the top of my head. He went in the second round a couple years ago despite not getting a combine invite. Still, it is extremely rare, as underclassmen will generally exit the draft at this point.
Given the steps the league is taking to bulk up the G League, going undrafted isn't the waste it was in years past. Plenty of guys have taken that route into becoming contributors. Trey Burke turned his career around following a G League stint.
Rare example, and I do not think it is comparable. Trey was drafted in the 1st round with guarenteed money, and only went down for a very short period because he just was not getting it done.
There are a LOT more guys that start in the D/G league, and end up spending the majority of their career there or head over to Europe. I keep hearing how these players can go, make money, and work their way up. That is why the success stories are so much more magnified, because it does not happen much.
He went down there because no team would sign him. That was his path back to the league. It wasn't though he had a contract and got sent down. In any case, he's but one example. By my count, 43 undrafted players in the last two drafts alone are on active rosters or two-way deals, a number that isn't too far off from the number of second-round picks on such deals.
In any case, my point wasn't to intimate that it's a guaranteed path to the league. Getting to and sticking in the NBA are hard by any path, as Burke's struggles despite being a national player of the year indicate. That's why so few college players make it. My point was that it's an additional path that hadn't existed in this form in years past. Considering we're talking about guys with low chances to begin with, it makes sense that the success rate won't be high.
An additional path. It is the same path with a different name and a little more hype/money pumped into it. The development is the same. I genuinely don't believe G-league players are getting some top-flight coaching to prepare them for the NBA. Coaches do not make much, players make less than the average salary in America. It's just a minor league system. I would take Beilein's system 900 times out of 900 over the G-league coaches.
For him, there is no reason to go. None of the pieces line up for it. He is not ready, and this is one of the deepest drafts in our recent history. Next year's draft will be substantially weaker, and he can imprint his name in the lottery with a full year of seasoning.
I'm not sure where I made any reference to any particular coach or player, and I've said several times Matthews should return next year. In terms of coaching, there are few things more overrated and overstated than the quality of college basketball coaches. If we're talking about development, a player has a much better chance of improving in a situation where he has more time to actually work in his game while playing against better, stronger, more experienced players (yes, G League teams are better than NCAA teams) and learning the NBA system opposed to having practice limits and class loads. Obviously, elite prospects aren't going to the G League en masse because it's a pay cut for most of them. There are benefits to college basketball in terms of exposure (and education for guys who don't pan out) that the G League will almost certainly never replicate, but in terms of actual player development, guys would be far better served in the G League.