The Ugly Comparison - 2009 UM and 2005 MSU

Submitted by tybert on
Disclaimer: before anyone gets TOO excited, I'm not comparing Rich Rod with John L, but the way the seasons started and ended are eerily similar. Let's hope our 2010 won't be like MSU's 2006 Season (another bowl-less meandering that got John L fired).

During the Purdue meltdown, the announcers made mention of Michigan's fragile psyche and how the team seemed to collapse when a play or two went against it. Right about the time we surrendered the ill-covered on-side kick, followed by a 50+ yd TD bomb to a wide-open WR, I started thinking about what this Michigan team reminded me of.

Not exactly the 2005 UM team, Lloyd's worst team that finished 7-5. I only wished that we could have that team back again, at least their record. That team blew 2nd half leads to Wisconsin, Minnesota, OSU, and Nebraska in losing gut-wrenching games. Without the Henne-to-Manningham TD at the end of the PSU game and a great catch by Jason Avant in OT at Iowa (which set up the winning TD), we would have lost 6 games that we led in the 2nd half. But, that team still did deliver a few beautiful wins, including two on the road. (I was at both the PSU win and at Iowa for the OT win in back-to-back weeks.)

So...just who did 2009 UM resemble?

Well, consider the 2005 MSU team. They started with a few easy wins and then a thriller of a win at ND in OT. You might recall that a few zealous Spartan players promptly planted the S flag on the ND field (a mighty classless act that has NOT been duplicated by any RichRod teams in the past, even going back to WVU).

Sparty then rolled to victory two more times, including a blowout win at Illinois. UM stumbled into East Lansing a humbled 2-2, playing Sparty at 4-0. This was finally the chance to bury UM and possibly send them home without a bowl game at all. The game went back and forth, before UM blew a chance to win at the end, when Garrett Rivas shanked a short FG, similar to the Olnesavage shank yesterday vs. OSU. Sparty missed a FG (barely) in OT, and Rivas drilled the game winner.

Sparty proceeded to lose 4 of the next 5 games and then faced a must-win home game vs. PSU. Sparty played well but lost 31-22. Sparty QB Drew Stanton had a bunch of turnovers, similar to Forcier yesterday. Sparty ended home for the year, even though UM felt down after the season, losing an uninspired Alamo Bowl game to a Bill-Callahan-coached Nebraska team (Callahan = Ron Zook w/o the recruiting ability).

While NO bad season revolves around 1 or 2 bad plays, most seasons that turn sour seem to have a key southward-turning point. MSU's undoubtedly occurred during a classic John L meltdown at the end of the half vs. OSU. MSU had a surprising 17-7 lead and was trying a FG on the last play of the half. MSU had 10 men on the field and the FG was blocked and returned for a TD. MSU fell apart and never recovered. It seemed that the final blow wasn't the OT loss to UM, but the bumbled FG and subsequent meltdown at OSU. One play turned about an entire season. Once things bombed, morale sank to the depths of the ocean floor. Even a great coach would have struggled helping that team turn it around.

Our meltdown moment was that 1st and goal vs. Illinois, up 13-7, ready to go up 20-7. Nothing went right the rest of that game and, except for a quarter here or there of good play, we melted. Just like if Sparty hadn't blown the FG vs. OSU in 2005, I think they would have probably found a way to win enough to make a bowl game. Ditto for 2009 UM.

What needs to happen between now and September 2010 to avoid the "John L" fate?

Well, for one, RichRod should KEEP his staff together (as he stated he would). If improvement is only a matter of guys getting more time in his "system" then keeping the system the same makes sense, even if it isn't popular. I'm tired of change. All I want is improvement.

Second, RichRod needs to be more of a Dr. Phil in the off-season. Bo was always easier and supportive of his players when they were down. We don't really need anyone transferring out right now. Let's face it, Tate's unscripted text messages show how down he feels! Yelling has a place in this world of coaching (laziness, silly personal fouls, etc.), but this team seems (at least on the surface) to be together more than it is not.

Finally, enough of the "hey we're improving even if you don't see it on Saturday" comments! Be specific. If a guy is making great strides in practice, tell everyone who and what. After a game, mention the plays/situations where we made improvement from 2008-09. I'm hoping to here RichRod say sometime next year: "last year, Tate would have thrown it here and not waited for a another second or two, and that's why we got the winning TD today."

UConn will be ready to roll next year when we open up the new Big House. We have 10 months to get ready.

Comments

mfan_in_ohio

November 23rd, 2009 at 1:49 AM ^

In 2005, MSU had a redshirt junior QB, not a true freshman throwing to mostly freshman and sophomores. We were a young team this year. It wasn't just a lack of talented seniors, we also had very few good juniors. Four defensive starters (two of which were Mouton and Ezeh), and a few linemen. If we are still starting mostly freshmen and sophomores in two years, then we have some problems, but we are rebuilding.

John L. was in his third year at MSU, where he started out 8-4, then went something like 5-7, 5-7, 4-8 before getting canned. Rich Rod is going in the other direction. Last year, we were 3-9, and to quote Bull Durham, "how'd we ever win 3? It's a miracle." I still can't believe we won that Wisconsin game. This year, with an admittedly easier schedule (although we did lose to Toledo last year), 3 blowout wins, close wins over ND and IU (scoring over 30 points in both), nailbiter defeats to MSU, Iowa, Purdue, blowout losses to PSU and Wisconsin, and defeats to OSU and Illinois (I don't count Illinois as a blowout, as we were inches from being up two touchdowns in the second half. That was less a blowout than a meltdown.)

The point: this is a dramatic improvement. Five of these games (2 wins, 3 losses) could have gone either way. We could have been 4-8, but we could have been 8-4 too. This reminds me more of the 2005 U-M team, in which seemingly every game came down to the last drive, but a porous defense in the second half was our big nemesis. I think the opposing team scored on its last possession in practically every game; it was just a matter of whether there would be enough time on the clock for Henne to bring us back (see Manningham vs. PSU). Remember that the next year, we had our best defense since 1997 and went 10-2. Will we do that next year? No, but 8-4 next year (a 3 win improvement) is a more reasonable expectation than 4-8.

By the way, if you pull up the 2005 MSU roster on scout.com, you will find "Kyle Sackrider" listed right above "Jonal Saint-Dic". Apparently my brain never matured past junior high, because I find that hilarious.

NoNon

November 23rd, 2009 at 10:11 AM ^

...points. +1

Anyone who looks at this year's team compared to last and cannot see the improvement is simply blinded by the "Michigan birthright" mentality that is plaguing the program right now.

The mistakes made at the end of the games, in the second half and in critical moments can be attested to youth. That WILL improve. While the defense was still horrendous, the offense made remarkable strides.

Saturday, IMO we outplayed the outright Big Ten champs, missed a chip-shot field goal, gave up a defensive TD when the QB wasn't even touched and turned the ball over twice inside the opponents 10. If that's not an improvement over last year's drubbing against virtually the same team, I don't know what is.

With another year of growth and experience, Michigan will cut down on those mistakes and continue to grow on defense. Yes another losing season is disappointing but if one has watched this team play and objectively compared them to last years squad, the improvements from 2008 are both promising and exciting and any intuitive fan who looks beyond the box score will notice that.

ross03

November 23rd, 2009 at 12:14 PM ^

This team's trajectory reminds me more of ND last year. Both were 1 year removed from very young, very awful teams - and Brian did a pretty good comparison showing how awful each was. Both were still young in the season following disaster(I think M is actually younger), and showed some improvement, but never beat anyone of consequence. In ND's case they had a bit easier schedule and squeaked into a bowl game; whereas, UM had a tougher schedule and seemed to crumple a bit down the stretch - hopefully due to youth. Neither had a defense that could be counted on.

The question will be whether RR is a better coach than Weiss. ND didn't progress much and is now a pretty Sr. team. UM will still be young next year, but more experienced. If RR is a good coach we should see significant improvement. If he's not we'll probably look a lot like ND this year - better offense by a bit, still crappy on D and a lot of losses.

Token_sparty

December 8th, 2009 at 12:32 PM ^

The only similarity between 2009 UM and 2005 MSU was the record (sort of). Really, all of UM's struggles can be accounted for in the freshman QBs being forced to start in an offense that requires a seasoned QB (and by 'seasoned', I don't mean 'fricasseed'; please see Sheridan, Nick) on the one hand, and an atrocious defense on the other. The 2005 Spartans, and I remember this well, were a pretty good team: Drew Stanton averaged 280 yards a game, Ringer and Caulcrick were doing their thunder and lightning thing, and the defense was solidly mediocre. No, what did the Spartans in was their horrible, horrible coach from hell, the one who caused Valenti to blow a gasket on-air the following September after the Notre Dame debacle, to our enduring amusement- I'm listening to it again now, in fact. The one who threw one of his staff under the bus after the botched FG attempt returned for a TD against OSU, but then REFUSED TO NAME OR FIRE HIM (even though anyone with a pulse knew who it was). The one who greeted his QB at a press conference by slapping him. The one who mocked Charlie Weis at a press conference by slapping himself.

Damn, I'm starting to sound like Dean Wormer. "Who dropped a whole truckload of fizzies into the swim meet? Who delivered the medical school cadavers to the alumni dinner? Every Halloween, the trees are filled with underwear; every spring, the toilets explode."

The point is, no one - NO ONE - could honestly say Coach Rodriguez is anywhere near the trailer-trash that is Bobby Petrino's buttplug holder in Arkansas. Michigan should look forward to improvement next year as long as the defense can play a little better.