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This Week’s Obsession: Hoop Futures

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By Seth — January 11th, 2018 at 3:00 PM — 67 comments
Filed under:
  • adrien nunez
  • brandon johns
  • colin castleton
  • free teske
  • ignas brazdeikis
  • isaiah livers
  • jon teske
  • jon teske is big nasty
  • jordan poole
  • not just a shooter
  • this week's obsession

image

[Marc-Grégor Campredon]

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: You’re a responsible adult who looks long-term instead of getting distracted by every which thing, so talk to Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management.

Our deal is Nick is the guy I go to for financial strategies, and he gets to ask us Michigan questions on your behalf. Anytime it’s a Nick question, we’ll let you know. Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know. And when you’re ready to figure out how you’re going to plan your retirement and pay for your kids’ college when you just got done paying for your own, don’t wait to do something about that.

-------------------------------

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

--------------------------------

Nick’s Question:

[long gushing thread about Poole’s ceiling]

Nick: And Livers and Teske are still so young. And then the incoming class…

Seth: Yeah in two years this could be Beilein’s best team ever.

Nick: I don’t even know which of these guys to be the most excited about!

Seth: Is that your TWO question?

Nick: Sure.

Seth: Good because we’ve been talking about the same thing in slack all this time.

Ace: Just one? Top three? Top five? I have a hard time containing my enthusiasm with this bunch and the 2018 class.

Seth: Should we try to come up with a consensus rank?

Brian: Top three. Ordered by projected alpha dog on the 2019-2020 team.

Ace: I’m gonna drop this in from the discussion that led to this topic:

Alex: I mean the roster in two years could look like:

PG - Z, Brooks/DeJulius
SG - Poole, Nunez
SF - Iggy, Johns
PF - Livers, Johns
C - Teske, Castleton

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but that's a group that could do some big things, especially if Z continues to improve

This, of all things, is going to kill me.

Brian: First and second year players on this team and the incoming croots are eligible.

Seth: So Iggy has one spot.

Ace: Does he, though?

Brian: Alpha dog is defense and rebounding inclusive. Everyone has their own list.

Ace: I thought the same thing and then I looked over everything again and this is really damn hard. There’s a legitimate argument for everyone on Alex’s two-deep outside of Brooks and probably Nunez, and those guys aren’t exactly dead weight.

[Hit THE JUMP for very exciting gifs and stuff]

--------------------------------

(we did some of this in our general Slack thread so some of the photogs jumped in)

image

[Campredon]

Alex: Gotta say that Teske makes my top three. Even when he’s putting up zero points, he’s impacting the game in really substantial ways. The only true defensive anchor I can think of in the Beilein era is Jordan Morgan and Teske is like half a foot taller.

Seth: Can Beilein teach Teske to shoot threes?

Ace: He already can, just doesn’t do it in games.

Seent it with my own two eyes.

Marc-Gregor: He is actually very accurate during warm up . I realized that this week trying to get a Livers / Robinson interaction (Almost impossible ... Duncan being more and more single out by his partner.)

Brian: Elbow jumper is solid already. Not a huuuuge stretch.

Ace: Obviously different in a game setting but I think he’ll be able to can the open ones, which is all he’ll get. And he’s already a better passer than Wagner

Eric: Wagner made a few "WTF?!" passes [Tuesday] night.

Ace: That’s another thing with Livers. he’s a couple inches away from being a really good passer. has the vision but some of his actual throws have been a bit off the mark.

There was a Z three a couple games ago where he made a great play to swing the ball quickly but missed the shooting pocket and you could see Livers get upset with himself on the replay. Z made it anyway.

But it’s awesome to see a freshman get pissed for not giving a shooter the perfect catch-and-fire setup.

Eric: Yeah, stats aside, I really like Livers. He's gonna break a backboard.

Ace: That dunk was something. Could rise last year but that was a different level.

chin up level

Eric: The lob he caught in the Illinois game was up there too. The one in transition.

Alex: Teske will be shooting threes before he leaves.

Ace: Next year. Lotta recent B1G precedent for the skilled big slowly working in the three-pointer, too.

Alex: That little side action with the curl screen and the big popping to the wing is perfect for him. Not sure if he'll be able to handle the pick and pop as well as Wagner but few can and he's pretty mobile

Ace: Payne, Swanigan, Bryant…

Teske can move like those guys.

Alex: Sees the floor so well. I mean he's looking at it from a different angle than others but it's rare to have a 7 footer that can work in the middle of a 2-3 and zip passes all over the floor.

Teske moves better than Bryant for sure. Biggie and Payne are comparable.

He can’t really jump but he affects shots and holds up strong in the post. That’s the other thing too—he has offensive tools. still pretty raw and will probably never be a decent finisher at his size because of the whole “can’t jump” thing. There will be flashier players but Teske is a dude you can build a top ten defense around. pair that with a good Beilein offense and it’s a real good time.

Seth: I’ve got to reserve a spot for Livers on my list. That drive linked in Brian’s game column was awesome on its own but then you pair that with his defensive potential, and his shooting, and he already might be the best finisher at the rim at Michigan since Glenn Robinson.

Brian: uh Charles Matthews is literally on the team right now

Brian:

matthews

Seth: Amended to thunderous dunker.

Alex: Matthews makes some tough layups too. He could possibly be on the team in two years too.

Brian: Yes but he’s very close to a finished product and therefore ineligible.

Alex: Fair enough.

Ace: My list:

1. Jordan Poole. As a freshman who’s a year younger than most of his classmates, Poole is posting a 116 ORTG on big usage (25%) and an even bigger shot share (29%). He’s got shooting splits of 61/41/75. He’s pulling And1 moves to get layups and hitting Stauskas-like sidestep threes.

Poole is already a quality scorer, and his numbers are actually _improving_ in Big Ten play. He’s got vast potential on that end with his length, quick first step, pinpoint shot, and tight handle, especially as a high screen ballhandler in Beilein’s offense. He could be nearly as good as a defender, too. He’s got long arms, which he’s already using in disruptive fashion—his 3.2% steal rate is a hair below Zavier Simpson’s—and he possesses great later quickness. He’s already made a positive impact on defense despite often losing his place; he’s going to get better, fast. It doesn’t hurt that he plays an incredibly fun brand of basketball to watch, either.

The only problem with Poole’s meteoric rise will be that he’s on track for the Bench Mob Hall of Fame.

2. Iggy Brazdeikis. A 6’8” wing with a scorer’s mentality, handles, developing shot off the bounce, and strong feel for the game? And he’s a Canadian named Iggy? Sign me up.

3. Jon Teske. It pains me deeply to leave Isaiah Livers off this list, but the presence of 2018 power forward Brandon Johns—another tough cut—mitigates his Alpha Dog potential. Teske will be the unquestioned starter at center. He’s already shown he can be the anchor of a strong defense, and he should only get better on that end as he adds strength and technique. His rebounding potential is huge. He’s got a soft touch and the potential to extend that range out beyond the arc, which opens up tantalizing possibilities. A Beilein team capable of going five-out on offense while also fielding the best defensive team of his career, which I strongly believe this group will be, is so dangerous I almost don’t want to think about it.

Most difficult cuts in order because I’m a cheater and I love this team: Livers, Johns, Castleton, DeJulius, Simpson, Nunez, Brooks.

Alex: Upset of the century that Livers didn’t make your list, Ace.

Ace: It upset me, too.

Alex: I mean he’s never going to miss a three again, so...

Ace: I FEEL GUILTY ENOUGH ALREADY, ALEX.

Alex: He just does all the little things on the defensive end and on the offensive glass. There’s a reason why his on-off stats are so fantastic, and if the game has slowed down for him on offense (looks like it) - I mean, the sky’s the limit. He’s a better athlete than I expected too. If he hits a growth spurt, pro scouts will become veeeeery interested.

Ace: Shhhhhhhhhh.

Brian: What the hell Ace?

Ace: I told y’all I really like this team. Make no mistake: I’m still as over the moon about Livers as I have been. If not more so.

Alex: Who are you and what have you done with Ace? And why don’t you like Livers as much as he does?

Brian: I don’t think we can accept an Ace list without Livers on it. It’s like a 27 tickets without Dennis Norfleet by hook or by crook

Ace: I, just, there’s so much swag here:

And lest we forget, I was #FreeTeske from the start. And there’s a killer scorer from Mississauga. There’s so much to love.

Alex: Agreed, Poole has too much swag.

Ace: “No such thing.” — Jordan Poole

Alex: (for anyone over the age of like 27, that’s good)

Ace: (oof, man) (it’s cool, I’ve just been owned)

Alex: (sorry, just caught you with a stray, my b)

(corncob)

Ace: ANYWAY, I’m happy to write more about Livers, too.

Alex: I was gonna say that Livers and Poole were the others in my top three. I’m really high on Castleton, and Iggy/Johns are great prospects, but LiversPoole is a known quantity of sorts.

Ace already covered Poole well but he’s a bucket-getter and a fairly efficient one at that. Not hard to envision him becoming one of the best scorers in the Big Ten - tempo might deflate his PPG but he can really fill it up.

Ace: Specifically, I think we overlook his passing and overall feel for the game. This is advanced:

And he’s got great vision, which makes his ideal for ripping apart a zone:

He’s made a few really impressive skip passes this season.

Also, tremendous teammate:

Have I redeemed myself?

Alex: Well, you’re posting useful gifs so I know it really is Ace.

Seth: Poole is my third. For reasons stated above but gif man please gif that crossover pull-up he used that ultimately led to shooting three at the line. That was Stauskasian.

Ace:

Seth: /giphy Santana guitar solo

Brian: My list:

1. Poole. Yes, I’m also in the Poole camp. Ace mentions some reasons above; in addition to all that, Poole is Caris Levert. He’s young.

Caris was 2 months younger (August vs June birthday) and had a much more up and down first season. Mo is the only player on the current roster significantly young for his year, was also pretty up and down.

— Manuel Excel (@colintj) January 10, 2018

Beilein’s track record with young athletic guys he can develop is terrific, and Poole’s ahead of where Caris was as a freshman by a significant amount. He’s long like Caris, with arms that just keep going up and up. He’s already attacking closeouts pretty well and should get better at that as he adapts to the offense and knows where the open guys are. He’s an unassisted 3 shooter already. He is efficient with big usage already. His turnover rate is very low. He gets to the line and shoots well from it. He has good lateral quickness and should be a solid defender.

I’m a little concerned with Poole’s shot selection; he seems like a guy who will heat-check quite a bit. But I’m willing to trade that for a Not Just A Shooter who is explosive and creative.

2. Teske. I’m outraged that Ace picked Teske over Livers because if I’ve been mumbling about anything for the last ten years of Michigan basketball it’s “I don’t understand why they don’t get a 7’2” guy just for defense and rebounding.” They have done that. Teske’s development over the past year has been excellent and should continue since he is a big and bigs take time. I think he’s still got some athletic upside as he continues refining, and if he can just creep that block rate up a few points he’s going to be a force even if his usage is <20. It is no coincidence that this team is on track to be Beilein’s best rebounding team ever.

Also: he will be one of those Cs who pops up to can a three every once in a while as the opposition writhes in agony at this development. Fun!

3. Adrian Nunez. Yeah. This may be a tiny bit of a cheat just to add some variety to the answers that will be heavily Iggy/Livers/Johns focused in this spot... but I mean, you cannot throw a rock at an Adrian Nunez video without seeing him hit threes in every possible way.

Off the bounce, step back, curl screen, catch and shoot: whatever. He is going to be one of those Rip Hamilton From Three guys Purdue just threw at us, part of the new generation of players who grew up watching Steph Curry, think that a stepback three is a good shot, and are somehow correct. He’s 6’6” and has that rise that means he can get his shot off in nothing flat. I thought this was a really interesting comment from Beilein:

“These guys that have elevation on their jump shot, Jordan Poole has got a lot of elevation on their jump shot, that’s really a big part of basketball today,” Beilein said. “You used to be able to drive and kick and a guy could gather up. Unless you’re really tall, you’ve gotta be able to gather up and also rise because the guys aren’t leaving you alone. Duncan gives us floor spacing, he doesn’t have a rise on his jump shot. If people are on him, he has to pass it up. [Nunez] can rise over people and he’s got some other habits we like as well. Good athlete, too.”

He’s 6’6’ and can be both a deadly spacing threat and a late-clock bad-three-is-good player. I think his skillset translates 100%. Hopefully he can play D.

Ace: That’s a great Beilein quote and part of a larger theme: the young guys are a different level of athlete than the upperclassmen.

Poole may never be as good of a practice shooter as Robinson, though he’s threatening, but he’ll be a better in-game shooter—not to mention a superior all-around scorer—because he can get over closeouts.

Ace: So here’s where we’re at right now:

Seth: Iggy, Livers, Poole

Alex: Teske, Livers, Poole

Ace: Poole, Iggy, Teske

Brian: Poole, Teske, Nunez

Poole is unanimous, Teske makes 3/4, and Brazdeikis and Livers make two apiece. We should probably talk a couple of the other guys.

Brandon Johns is doing stuff like this:

I've seen @Brandon_Johns0 do a lot for East Lansing over the past 2+ seasons but I'd never seen him drop 51 like he did tonight. Impressive stuff from the future @umichbball player. @PrepHoopsMI pic.twitter.com/fqLwmNTcEn

— Jay Sarkar (@WLNSJaySarkar) December 20, 2017

He’s a true four with a decent outside shot, good handles, and a great frame and athleticism. For as much as I like Livers, Johns is ahead of where he was at this stage in his development. It’s going to be an absolute dogfight for minutes on the wing the next couple years.

Meanwhile, Colin Castleton is also putting up some big numbers. Scouts have talked him up as a skilled, Wagner-like center with “tremendous upside.”

In most years, he’d be one of the top two or three incoming guys we’d be most excited about. He’s a great fit for Beilein’s system.

Alex: Castleton might fly under the radar a bit but if he can put on good weight... man. a wagner type that’s one of the best shot-blockers in his class. Should say that while he’s skinny, he has pretty broad shoulders, which is important for a big man. (recruiting is creepy)

Ace: Yeah, the whole “plus shot blocking” aspect to his game is rather important. That’s a big, important departure from Wagner.

Alex: Colin “American Porzingis” Castleton

Ace: Our very own unicorn.

Alex: That they told him he can play like Wagner is telling; creating his own shot at that size is Porzingisesque. Obviously I don’t expect him to be as good as an NBA star, but a player in that archetype seems like a pretty great fit on both ends for Michigan.

Ace: He seems like one of those guys who a lot of people say near the end of the cycle is underrated and within a year of being on campus we’re all like “yep.”

“Oh, right, the seven-foot dude who can swat shots and drill threes is probably going to be good at basketball.”

Alex: He might look a little bit like that Haarms kid for Purdue. Who didn’t play great the other night but Castleton is actually a shooter and a little bit shorter. But on defense: skinny but ready to reject that weak shit at all times.

Ace: Yeah, it’ll probably take him a year or two to become a post banger, but he can still contribute right away.

Seth Before we leave we ought to at least recognize that this discussion was borne out of the relative position of David DeJulius after he made Tom Izzo sit through this:

...against his own PG commit. I really hope some mom in range politely pointed at DeJulius like "Is that your guy?"

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January 11th, 2018 at 1:18 PM
#2
AC1997
AC1997's picture
Joined: 09/19/2008
MGoPoints: 3307
Drooling....

What I like most about this column is how far we've come in just a couple of years.  I'll reference the PF spot specifically.  We've known that was a potential X-factor into how well Beilein's offense could run, but he was always sort of stuck putting square pegs in that spot and making it work - Novak, GR3.  

Then he knew he needed to address that spot and recruited Kam Chatman and DJ Wilson.  Their first two years couldn't have gone worse.  Kam couldn't shoot and DJ thought he was a guard.  The team his rock bottom when Caris got hurt and they were struggling to find a solution.  We get one year of good-DJ to remind us of how powerful that spot could be and then he's gone.

Now we're looking at a roster where Iggy would have previously been looked at as a potential stretch-4 but likely gets to play his natural 3 spot because Livers is off to a great start and Johns is a more conventional 4.  On top of that, neither has to be shoe-horned into playing minutes at the 5 because we have Teske coming on, a grinder backup in Davis, and a finesse high-ceiling prospect in the recruiting class.  

Oh, did we mention that we'll have 3 PGs fighting for minutes also instead of the "we're forced to play this freshman because we have no choice" like with Morris, Walton, and even X a little?

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:32 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
caup
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1702
excellent and accurate post

I very much enjoyed a lot a great points here

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January 11th, 2018 at 5:08 PM
(Reply to #2) #4
umchicago
umchicago's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16165
PG

ya, burke was a "man, i hope he can play well right away" guy too after morris abruptly left.

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January 11th, 2018 at 1:48 PM
#5
hailtothevictors08
hailtothevictors08's picture
Joined: 06/11/2009
MGoPoints: 3506
I am so giddy. 

I am so giddy. 

 

This team is already super fun to watch. Beilein's ability to adjust his game is amazing and he is now going to have a team where he can legit play 10-11 deep if he wants. That depth should prevent an injury or two submarining how much fun these next couple years should be. 

 
My List:
 
Iggy
Poole
Johns/Livers (this is almost an unfair rotation at the 4)
And everyone else.
 
And again, this team is already fun. Matthews and Wagner are special offensive talents and play so damn hard. And I will always have a soft spot for MAAR and his ability to bring in for Michigan every night for 4 years. 
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January 11th, 2018 at 5:12 PM
(Reply to #3) #6
umchicago
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Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16165
maar

one of the most underrated players i've seen at UM.  i still think i want him more than anyone on the team with the ball in the closing seconds, especially since he's a very good FT shooter.

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January 11th, 2018 at 2:03 PM
#7
Tate
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Joined: 01/11/2013
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DeJulius plays like a Derrick

DeJulius plays like a Derrick Walton clone - yes, please.

A rotation of Livers, Iggy and Johns at the 3/4 - yes, please.

2-5 of the starting rotation could be 6'4, 6'8, 6'8, 7'1 - yes, please.

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January 11th, 2018 at 2:50 PM
#8
KTisClutch
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I love the potential of Iggy

I love the potential of Iggy with Johns/Livers at the 3 and 4 spot. Early returns show Livers should be able to guard opposing 3s compentently at minimum. Hoping Johns will have the same ability eventually. That allows the less agile Iggy to guard 4s and still able to play with another forward. 

 

Plus that group will have offensive rebounding potential that a Beilein team has never had. Livers has shown a knack for offensive rebounding and Iggy has that ability as well from the tape I've seen. Not that we'll become UNC but the tipouts could become a more regular occurance.

 

My list is:

Poole, Iggy, Johns

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January 11th, 2018 at 5:13 PM
(Reply to #5) #9
umchicago
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tip outs

yes, UM does that as well as anyone on the offensive boards.  it's obviously emphasized by the coaches.  livers and teske are both good at it, even on FTs.

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January 11th, 2018 at 2:25 PM
#10
matty blue
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dang.

COME on, man...i was already fired up about the next couple of years.  you're just ramping me up.

as to dejulius - i know it's a highlight tape, but...i didn't see anyone on that clarkston team that looked they belonged on the same court with him.  i'm not even kidding - is it the guy wearing #1?  if that's the case, we are going to eat his skinny, slow, defensively uninterested lunch for four years, and i can't wait to see it.

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January 11th, 2018 at 5:15 PM
(Reply to #6) #11
umchicago
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clarkston

i believe the center there was a commit to UM briefly, but decommitted when JB wanted him to reclassify back a year.

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January 15th, 2018 at 10:30 AM
(Reply to #36) #12
matty blue
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nope, it IS #1 on the tape...

a 5'-9" guard, supposedly named "foster loyer."

one scouting report i saw uses the phrase "needs ot improve defensively but is not at all a bad defender, " which is a) about as faint praise as you can get, and b) not at all what i saw. 

we are going to eat his lunch.

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January 11th, 2018 at 2:50 PM
#13
BoFan
Joined: 03/09/2012
MGoPoints: 3424
Predicted lineup for 18/19 and 19/20 seasons

Teske,

Johns,

Iggy,

Poole,

Simpson,

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:05 PM
(Reply to #7) #14
Seth
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Put in Livers!

Put in Livers!

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:47 PM
(Reply to #8) #15
Birdman
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 1276
LIvers

Isn't going to be on the 2020 team. Hes gonna be gone, and that is gonna GOOOOOD

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:37 PM
(Reply to #7) #16
KTisClutch
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I would be expecting both

I would be expecting both Charles and Mo back for next year. Possibly Mo could go if he thinks it'd be better to just start his pro career but he won't be better than a 2nd round pick.

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:28 PM
(Reply to #16) #17
BoFan
Joined: 03/09/2012
MGoPoints: 3424
I hope so too. Charles was a

I hope so too. Charles was a Kentucky recruit and they end up with kids that have eight pro first mentality, andMo was on the fence last year so I assumed both would go if they have great years.

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:40 PM
(Reply to #24) #18
KTisClutch
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Unfortunately for Mo he has

Unfortunately for Mo he has fallen off most, if not all draft boards. His rebounding is improved but to play in the NBA at his size and with his (lack of) defense he needs to be a Lauri Markaanen level shooter.

 

Charles has the athletic ability but he was not on any NBA radars coming into the season. Unless he blows up in the last couple months ala DJ Wilson he will have no choice but to come back and work on his ball handling and shooting.

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:01 PM
(Reply to #28) #19
yossarians tree
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Joined: 08/19/2010
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*

Mo seems to truly love Michigan and his teammates, so I could see him deciding to come back for a chance at a championship. If Matthews is ever to be an NBA player, it won't be next year. He could stay in college or try the D League.

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:16 PM
(Reply to #28) #20
schreibee
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Joined: 11/02/2009
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I'll blame the ankle for Mo's

I'll blame the ankle for Mo's recent play, but unless he goes full D.J. over the next 2 months he ain't going nowhere. So that leaves Coach B with the choice of redshirting Castleton OR Mo's role being reduced next year.

Matthews will have his draft status affected by his FT% - I'd just foul him anytime he's NEAR the paint. That will keep him from making the explosive plays that get you noticed. But he'll only play one more year at most. 

Livers only plays with M through '18-'19, Poole too possibly...  TALENTS, those 2!!!

So if the discussion is about the team '19-20 and beyond, I wouldn't count on those two necessarily.

Teske isn't Mitch, so unless he DOES start popping 3s he won't get big run in the B offense.

So, process of elimination, '19-20:

Z, Iggy, Johns - like that base!

Add Teske's Rebs+D, Castleton's versatility, DeJulius backing Z, Nunez splashing 3s... that's a Hell of a group! And IF either/or of Livers/Poole ARE still on the team?

Elite 8 at a MINIMUM, think bigger if you dare!!!

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January 12th, 2018 at 11:02 AM
(Reply to #44) #21
KTisClutch
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WAY to early to call Livers

WAY to early to call Livers or Poole a 2 and done. Especilally Livers. Livers was the 121st rated recruit and has scored 65 points in his career. He's good and I'm very excited for his future, but he has shown nothing so far that would even make an NBA team give the slighest look for him.

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January 12th, 2018 at 2:34 PM
(Reply to #65) #22
schreibee
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Joined: 11/02/2009
MGoPoints: 11145
Rather than add up Livers

Rather than add up Livers total pts scored, which is virtually COMPLETELY minutes related (i.e. coaches decision), look at his productivity.

If (when) he gets more PT, hopefully as soon as tomorrow, he'll blow up. In '18-19 he'll be a star.

Mark it

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January 12th, 2018 at 8:39 AM
(Reply to #7) #23
HailHail47
Joined: 10/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1793
Would not be surprised if Moe

Would not be surprised if Moe or Matthews return. Their NBA stock isn’t off the charts right now. Plus, we know that Moe is really enjoying his time at Michigan. Someone would have to transfer though

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:09 PM
#24
Zeke21
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Joined: 12/20/2016
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I'd have put Poole

In for a last second shot vs Purdue. Before all that havoc.

No Guts,  No Glory.

The guy is a pro and will be here only next year.

Still great team to look forward to.

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:10 PM
#25
poppinfresh
Joined: 12/06/2014
MGoPoints: 4999
next year

if wagner and matthews came back we'd have to lose one of davis or watson most likely to transfer

but imagine that team if they all came back.  with where things stand now, im not sure either of those guys feel great TODAY about their nba draft stocks

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:03 PM
(Reply to #10) #26
AJDrain
Joined: 06/06/2017
MGoPoints: 358
I think it's most likely they both come back

But if we make a late run, maybe Mo leaves. But the 2018-19 team will be filthy regardless

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January 11th, 2018 at 5:56 PM
(Reply to #21) #27
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15752
I think the catch is

if both Mo and Mathews come back, when you combine that with the recruits UM is looking to bring in next year, UM will have more players then scholarships available.

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January 12th, 2018 at 8:41 AM
(Reply to #40) #28
HailHail47
Joined: 10/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1793
Yup, two guys would have to

Yup, two guys would have to transfer. I think one is fairly likely regardless, and two seems like a distinct possibility.

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January 12th, 2018 at 11:09 AM
(Reply to #63) #29
DowntownLJB
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no, just one - we have an

no, just one - we have an open scholarship this year.

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:11 PM
#30
AC1997
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Joined: 09/19/2008
MGoPoints: 3307
Who redshirts?

So when we look at next year, knowing there are 5 new recruits and that JB likes to keep a tight rotation....who redshirts?  Obviously it depends heavily on the decisions of Matthews/Wagner but no one on the list really seems like an obvious candidate given how talented they are, but where will minutes come from?

  • PG - Beilein's offense is complicated for a freshman and we have two returning players...but is DeJulius too talented to RS?  
  • SG - Poole starts and Watson or one of the PGs like Brooks could back him up.  Nunez probably won't be ready for major minutes but he's the only true back-up 2 on the roster so he might not RS.
  • SF - Iggy is too talented to RS even if Matthews stays and his minutes are limited.  
  • PF - I suppose Johns could RS if Matthews stays since you'd have Matthews/Livers/Iggy at the forward spots and you could even throw Poole or Watson in the mix at the 3 if needed.  
  • C - Normally you'd assume a RS for a center, especially with Teske starting and Davis able to play a few minutes if needed.  But Castleton brings a unique skill set that's a lot different than the other two and may be a nice changeup off the bench.  

Back to the original question, my list is this:

1 - Poole (potential for a Stauskas 2.0)

2 - Livers (a true 4 who can shoot, rebound, defend, leap, and hustle?)

3 - Iggy (I was a little worried about his athleticism and need to be "the guy" too early in his career, but now he'll have an alpha-dog in Poole and a couple of defensive guys in Livers/Teske so he can thrive.  Can I compare him to Lavel Blanchard....with a real coach?)

 

I like Teske and love his progress and potential, but I think he'll always be a Jordan Morgan style role player you love to have but isn't the first name  you think of  

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:24 PM
(Reply to #11) #31
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14581
The two candidates to redshirt

are Castleton, if Wagner comes back. And Nunez, if he's behind Watson.  If Wagner doesn't come back, Castleton may still redshirt if he's behind Davis.  We've shown a tendency to redshirt bigs, but highly unlikely we'd redshirt anyone else.  We'll go with a deep bench early like we did this year, and sort out the rotation by conference play.

Assuming Wagner leaves and Matthews returns:

PG: 1. Simpson 2. DeJulius/Brooks

SG: 1. Poole 2. Nunez/Watson

SF: 1. Matthews 2. Iggy/Livers

PF 1. Livers 3. Johns/Iggy

C 1. Teske 2. Davis/Castleton

There will be minutes for everyone, at least early.  And if Matthews leaves, there will be even more minutes with Nunez/Iggy/Livers sharing the SF time.

No reason to reshirt a projected backup. 

The other two remote possibilities are

1) if DeJulius is way behind Brooks such that it's not even worth trying him out, and I think the odds of that are very low.  My guess is that Brooks and DeJulius battle it out for the backup spot for the first ten games or so.  If Brooks loses, he'll probably transfer after the season.  If DeJulius loses, he'll wait his turn/work to overtake him.

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:30 PM
(Reply to #11) #32
schreibee
schreibee's picture
Joined: 11/02/2009
MGoPoints: 11145
Your list is excellent, but I

Your list is excellent, but I believe they were making lists for '19-20?

I don't think Livers or Poole are necessarily gonna be on that team, as detailed just above.

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:25 PM
#33
DualThreat
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Joined: 05/04/2012
MGoPoints: 2297
Depth Chart?

Can someone help me out and post a quick depth chart (by class)?  Like the one in the "Useful Stuff" link above for football.

I don't follow bball as close as football and would like to see which players are seniors, juniors, sophomores, freshman, and incoming in adition to starters.

Thanks!

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:31 PM
(Reply to #12) #34
hailtothevictors08
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Joined: 06/11/2009
MGoPoints: 3506
https://umhoops.com/recruitin

https://umhoops.com/recruiting/scholarship-breakdown/

 

Umhoops has the nitty-gritty stuff like that for you

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:36 PM
(Reply to #13) #35
DualThreat
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Joined: 05/04/2012
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Gracias.

Gracias.

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:41 PM
(Reply to #12) #36
Steves_Wolverines
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Joined: 01/17/2013
MGoPoints: 5097
Also, check out verbal

Also, check out verbal commits. They do this for every team, so if you're curious about other B1G teams, this is the site to use.

http://www.verbalcommits.com/schools/michigan

 

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:07 PM
(Reply to #12) #37
Seth
Seth's picture
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 94461
Easy

That's Easy enough:

http://mgoblog.com/content/basketball-depth-chart-class

Add "responsible for permanent menu item on mgoblog" to your list of life accomplishments.

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January 12th, 2018 at 5:29 AM
(Reply to #43) #38
DualThreat
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Joined: 05/04/2012
MGoPoints: 2297
Thanks Seth!

A noteworthy accomplishment for a humble blog participant, for sure!  :-)

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:40 PM
#39
Mattb_22
Joined: 08/15/2016
MGoPoints: 424
My List

1. Poole - Yes, he is ultra-talented but also just so dang fun to watch. More minutes for him, now, please!

2. Livers - This kid has it all. The man-to-man defense against Purdue the other night was high level. No way he stays off the floor as he progresses.

3. Iggy - The replacement for Matthews that fits Beilein's system a little more comfortably.

An exciting time for Michigan basketball! Now, if only football would catch up ;p

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:39 PM
#40
Steves_Wolverines
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Joined: 01/17/2013
MGoPoints: 5097
"Alex: Gotta say that Teske

"Alex: Gotta say that Teske makes my top three. Even when he’s putting up zero points, he’s impacting the game in really substantial ways. The only true defensive anchor I can think of in the Beilein era is Jordan Morgan and Teske is like half a foot taller."

Gotta disagree with this a bit. I think both McGary and DJ Wilson were borderline elite defenders once they found their game. They could both pretty much guard every position, were big time shot blockers, big time rebounders, and could run the point after grabbing a rebound which made our transition game unstoppable. 

Morgan was a very smart defender, but when your best defense is to be in the right place to take a charge, well, I'll take DJ or McGary over that any day. 

 

My next point is something that some comments above have already mentioned; that this roundtable should have concluded with a statement of praise for Beilein. To get Livers and Poole to understand his offense, and be as efficient as they have been, is beyond incredible. Yes, the players are legit crazy good, but the work Beilein puts in recruiting these kids and coaching them up is incredible.

 

My next point is the opposite of optimistic. As we've seen before, once a player starts to shine under Beilein, they tend to get the attention of every NBA scout. My fear is that next year, Livers is going to explode; continue hitting 3's, breaking backboard dunks, lockdown defense, and a 6'7" frame that's going to add a ton of muscle in the offseason, and I think Livers will be in the NBA after his So year. To add to the bad feels; if Iggy blows up his Fr year, he could possibly be a 1-and-done. 

 

 

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January 11th, 2018 at 6:46 PM
(Reply to #17) #41
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14581
This is true of both

DJ and McGary but they each were only in that defensive anchor role for about 10 games.

McGary didn't start all season and played 8 minutes in our de facto Big Ten Reg Season Championship game aginst IU (he had only played more than 20 minutes six times in the reg season) and didn't overtake Morgan for the starting role until the NCAA Tourney (he played more minutes in the BTT but still didn't start).  So while I agree he was great for the NCAA tourney, he didn't have longevity in the role.

DJ was our best defender all of last year, but didn't become the alpha dog rim protector until we started going small ball in the tourneys with him at the 5.  I will grant you that him largely shutting down the opponents best wing for most of the year maybe qualifies him as the "anchor" for the year.  Debatable.

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January 11th, 2018 at 9:03 PM
(Reply to #49) #42
Steves_Wolverines
Steves_Wolverines's picture
Joined: 01/17/2013
MGoPoints: 5097
All true points, which is why

All true points, which is why I put my qualifier in there (once they hit their stride), because it took both players a while to finally break out.

A similar qualifier can be applied to Morgan as well. It took him years to become a strong paint defender, and even then, he simply didn't have the size or strength to stop strong post players. And if I'm recalling correctly, I think he had a "butterfingers" problem (moreso on the offensive end), but I'm thinking it also negatively affected his ability to go up strong and grab D-Rebs in traffic. 

I loved Morgan and the brains/heart/hustle he played with, but he wasn't very talented. If I had to build an All-Defense Beilein team, I'm taking DJ at the 4 and McGary at the 5. Morgan can come off the bench. 

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January 12th, 2018 at 1:21 AM
(Reply to #53) #43
TrueBlue2003
Joined: 01/05/2010
MGoPoints: 14581
Not true about Morgan

he redshirted his first year and as early as his RS Freshman year he was a good defender.  Always had the heart, huslte and brains.  His freshman year he started at C and we had the 37th best defense that year - the highest rank ever under Beilein, which is on its way to being bested this year.  And Morgan was right there taking charges, playing his butt off and getting rebounds as the interior "anchor" for that team.

Teske is approaching and will likely pass McGary as the best defensive C under Beilein, but yes, McGary at his best was very good.  He's not the rim protector that Teske is.  Teske deters/alters/blocks a lot more shots than McGary did. McGary had quick hands and got a lot of steals and was a great post defender because he was so big.

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:46 PM
#44
Hail-Storm
Hail-Storm's picture
Joined: 06/07/2010
MGoPoints: 7124
Looks like Beilein's track record is paying off

I know that basketball recruiting is dirty, and Beilein is not a "get paid now if you come here", that has limited getting some players. But, man, has he built a reputation on getting guys to the next level and earlier than expected. That's a great "get paid when you eventually leave here" sell i'd imagine. 

I am just catching up to basketball, but was surprised that there was mention of Teske still filling out. Because against Purdue, he didn't look like he budged, and came down a couple times with the ball surrounded by 4 Purdue players.  Him adding weight and an offensive touch, yikes.  

Also love to see some guys compared to Stuaskus. Shooters that can take it baseline and step out? Yes please. Especially since they sound like their defense is a tad better too.

Off this topic, but Mathews looks a lot like GRIII, with the number 1 and the build. 

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January 11th, 2018 at 3:57 PM
#45
smwilliams
smwilliams's picture
Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 6160
Poole is definitely #1 on my

Poole is definitely #1 on my list. You know, "just a shooter", well Poole seems like "just a scorer". And the swag is undeniable.

Livers is #2 because he can stretch the floor and jump out of the gym. He's been pretty okay for a freshman defensively and I'm partial to guys who have already shown they belong as opposed to high schoolers who may or may not be at that level. 

That said Iggy is #3 because damn do I want Nik Stauskas back in my life.

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:34 PM
(Reply to #20) #46
KTisClutch
KTisClutch's picture
Joined: 03/02/2014
MGoPoints: 1286
Poole is much more Stauskian

Poole is much more Stauskian in play style than Iggy who is much more Stauskian in lineage and appearance.

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:12 PM
#47
Piston Blue
Piston Blue's picture
Joined: 11/28/2012
MGoPoints: 676
Really reminds of 2012-13 seasons

But the first team in this case (current team) vs 2012 (first Beilein B1G champs) is much younger and seemingly more talented, but doesn't have a future POTY. Should be interesting, feeling almost as confident about a future Final 4 trip for this squad as I was for the 2013 outfit. Hopefully these last two classes yields the same production as the 2012 class (3 first round picks, 1 second)

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:26 PM
#48
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 16433
Crazy crazy promise. Enough to make a grown man weep.

Johns has so much dog in him; and Iggy is an assassin. I am really happy for John Beilein. The guy has worked so hard for this, is reaching the pinnacle of a superlative career.

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:37 PM
#49
MattWantsU
MattWantsU's picture
Joined: 03/20/2015
MGoPoints: 67
DeJulius

is the forgotten recruit in this class.  But damn.  He is a huge pickup and looks like an ideal Beilein PG.  I hadn't seen that highlight vid, but he definitely seems to have the skill to challenge for time immediately.  

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January 11th, 2018 at 4:52 PM
#50
snarling wolverine
snarling wolverine's picture
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 42996
I think that sound was

I think that sound was Maizen's head exploding after reading this.

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January 11th, 2018 at 7:11 PM
(Reply to #30) #51
Da Fino
Da Fino's picture
Joined: 09/11/2014
MGoPoints: 646
But... but..... Beilein can’t

But... but..... Beilein can’t recuit!

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