Upon Further Review: Shea Patterson vs Vanderbilt Comment Count

Brian

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[Bryan Fuller]

CONTEXT NOTES: Patterson had five games against P5 competition before getting knocked out for the year after the LSU game. Two were grim hammerings at the hands of LSU and Alabama where he threw 5 INTs against zero touchdowns and failed to hit 50% completions. Games against Cal, Auburn, and Vandy were much better. This is the Vandy game, chosen first because there's a handy Shea-only reel on the Youtubes.

Now, you hear "Vandy" and expect the Keystone Kops but they were a respectable-ish 5-7 last year and were 17th nationally in pass D S&P+. Their sack rate was almost exactly average, which helped a lot. Initial reviews of the Bama and LSU indicate that the Ole Miss OL fell apart against top-end rushers and Patterson spent a lot of time running for his life.

OLE MISS OFFENSE NOTES: The Rebels ran a standard modern passing spread reminiscent of Penn State minus Saquon Barkley. All plays are from the gun; most are three-wide with a flex TE off the line of scrimmage or in the slot.

Their receiving core was stacked back to front, with DK Metcalf, DaMarkus Lodge, Van Jefferson, and AJ Brown all getting 50+ targets. Brown, a potential first round pick next year, is the shortest of those guys at 6'1", 225; he got put in the slot frequently in an effort to get him matched up against nickel corners and safeties.

The Ole Miss OL was also almost dead average in allowing sacks.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
M28 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Pass PA hitch Metcalf 3
Quick pitch and catch, CB rallies to tackle ably. (CA, 3)
M26 3 9 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -8
LT smoked immediately. He gets a push in; Patterson can step up but has to break a tackle and gets delayed. Vandy rallies to finish. (PR, N/A)
M39 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf Inc
An attempt at a bomb on which Metcalf does get over the top of the CB but gets no separation. CB gets an arm grab in and Metcalf can only spear at it with one hand. Throw is perfect. (DO, 2, route-)
M46 3 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv Brown 19
Good pocket, ton of time. Patterson can’t find anyone and his timer goes off; he rolls out. He points his dude to the sideline and then nails him in stride right at the line . Tough call: want him to find someone given the time but he made it work for a chunk. Results-based charting. (DO, 2)
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Circle Brown 8
(Probably) a clever counter to an Ole Miss staple as this looks like double slants to the field and Patterson pumps it; outside WR breaks deep but is covered. Backup plan is the slot converting his slant into a circle route in the vacated area. Open for a chunk. (CA, 3)
O27 2 3 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 7 Pass Dorf N/A Inc
Outside WR runs a go. Patterson throws a hitch. (NC, N/A)
M42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 6.5 Pass RPO slant Metcalf 58
Basic RPO on which the MLB sucks up to the run fake and an OLB who should absolutely be dropping into this sits and watches the ball. That’s a first down, and then Metcalf and some comical S play turn it into a TD. (CA, 3)
O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Improv N/A Inc
PA and some Vandy hijinks confuse a G and get a DT through clean. DT gets tackled, holding call. Patterson bugs out. He avoids the DE, gets to the sideline, and throws it OOB. (PR, N/A)
M43 1 25 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Hitch Jefferson 2
I guess Ole Miss is expecting softer coverage? Or this is a busted screen? I don’t know. Two yard hitch, immediate tackle. This is more or less a screen. (CA, 3, screen)
M45 2 23 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6.5 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 10
A good gain but a bit of a woof by Patterson, as the TE arc blocking from him has nobody to block since the entire front ignores Patterson. He gets forced inside by the slot LB and bursts up a seam. Patterson(-2) then slides down after ten yards when ten more beckon.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O45 3 13 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Dig Jefferson Inc
Decent pocket but Patterson has to step up as DEs get around the edge. He can, but he’s boxed in. He fires a dig route that’s debatably open; it’s batted at the LOS. Still gets to the WR but just past his hands. (BA, N/A)
M9 1 26 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Flare screen RB -5
This is dangerous, behind the RB and backwards. RB manages to spear it, and then gets blown up as a WR badly misses a block. (IN, 1, screen)
M4 2 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slant Jefferson Inc
Well behind Jefferson and a tough out of frame catch attempt fails. (IN, 1)
M4 3 31 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Flare screen RB 12
Give up and punt. (CA, 3, screen)
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 5-1 LB split 6 Pass PA fade Lodge Inc
Patterson misses another fade where his WR gets over the top without separation. Ball Is right at the sideline and only a yard or two off. (IN, 0)
M25 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Cross Brown 27
Blitz sees a standup DE slash inside the RT. Patterson resets outside that guy and fires an impressive crossing route that takes his WR away from the coverage and hits him right in stride. Brown breaks a tackle for a chunk. (DO, 3, protection 0/2)
O33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run Zone read keeper Patterson -2
All six guys in the box attack the RB so Patterson pulls. This is a bad idea as Vandy has a clever trap on, converting from a two high look to a one high at the snap by shooting the field-side safety down. He contains, and Brown appears to be running an RPO slant so he’s not thinking about blocking. RPS -2.
O35 2 12 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass PA Post Lodge 35
Massive coverage bust is free TD. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O27 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA fade Metcalf Inc
Probably a quick-strike attempt after a TO. Ole Miss crams the boundary with players and gets one on on coverage with Metcalf barely outside a hash. He’s got a ton of room to the sideline; Patterson tries to hit him in stride as if that room doesn’t exist. He barely misses; ball deflects off Metcalf’s fingertips. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O27 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Improv RB 25
Patterson flushed as a blitz gets through. Poor contain allows him to get out relatively quickly, and the RB pops wide open after converting a dumpoff into something deeper. Patterson finds it and hits him in stride for a big chunk. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O4 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Goal line 7 Run Zone read keeper Patterson 4
Odd triple option-ish play as the TE runs what looks like an arc block for a second and then converts it to a flat route. CB covers it. WR to this side is blocking, though. Patterson(+1) is able to dodge as safety and impressively runs over a corner to score.
M35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB arc keeper Patterson 7
Vandy again appears to leave the edge open but fills with a safety. This time the arc TE cuts off a linebacker to the inside; Patterson(+1) is one on one on the edge and gives that S the Forcier with a decisive upfield cut to get a solid gain.
M48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Fade Metcalf 34
Another jammed boundary and one vs one in a lot of space. Metcalf loses the route pretty definitively; Patterson should be using the space to the outside—they’re running on the numbers—but instead just throws it like usual. Metcalf makes a Prothro catch to make up for it. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O18 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Throwaway Metcalf Inc
Only get a portion of this play. When we come back an OL is five yards downfield on some sort of RPO, Patterson is rolling out, an attempted double move gets crushed, and Patterson dumps it. (not charted, 0)
O30 1 10 Shotgun quad 1 1 3 Dime over 5 Pass Slant Brown 11
Fake the screen everyone runs out of quad into some routes; this time Patterson throws it a bit behind Brown because a linebacker is about to run under him; he keeps the ball away from him and turns a potentially dangerous play into a reception. (DO, 2, protection 1/1)
O19 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even 6 Pass Dumpoff RB Inc
All day in the pocket. Patterson can’t find anyone and dumps it down to the back, turfing a short throw. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
O19 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Run QB draw Patterson 5
RG gets pushed back in Patterson’s lap in an uncomfortable way so he has a choice and bounces out; he’s able to beat a DE to the corner and get a few(+0.5). Weak late hit flag after.
O6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Okie zero 7 Pass BSF Lodge 6
The perfect, unstoppable back shoulder fade. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
M48 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even 6 Pass Comeback Lodge 14
23 seconds left in the half, 2 TOs, Vandy rushes three and leaves a LB in a two-yard zone. Woof. All day, Patterson throws a rope to Lodge for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O38 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel over 6 Pass Deep out Metcalf Inc
Blitz gets a guy through up the gut. Patterson backs off and throws off his back foot; the resulting soft 15 yard out is in the perfect spot but the CB has time to rally because of the velocity and can get a PBU. Pretty good throw all the same since it was either his guy or no one. (CA, 1, protection 0/2)
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Box Type Play Player Yards
O38 2 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Improv N/A Inc
This is pretty weird as Patterson takes a drop after getting the snap and ends up ten yards behind the LOS. Maybe for the best as line lets a DE through untouched. Patterson has time to survey because of the drop but then has to start moving around. He tries a late sideline throw that doesn’t come off. Think you have ot take your shot here even if it’s a bad idea throw in a normal circumstance. This play starts with 9 on the clock. (BR, 0, protection 0/2)
O38 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 3-2 dime 5 Pass Hail Mary N/A Inc
Hail Mary is incomplete.
O29 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Slot seam Brown 29
PA and the safety turns his back to the slot receiver? And settles down on the boundary hash? No redirect from slot corner. This leaves a slot seam for Brown open and Patterson calmly nails it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M21 2 9 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 NIckel even 6 Pass Dig Brown 14
Lot of time and a clean pocket; Patterson surveys and throws a bit high but not too bad to Brown, who converted a very covered hitch into a dig route and got open. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, Brown route +)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 NIckel under 6 Pass Bubble screen Brown 8
Very very soft coverage on the outside; S can’t make a one on one play on Brown. (CA, 3, screen)
M43 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass PA hitch Jefferson 11
CB blitz might be telegraphed as both WR and QB are prepped for it. Quick hitch before the S can get over for a solid gain. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Throwaway N/A Inc
All day, nobody on the screen, no throw, eventual rollout and throwaway. (TA, N/A, protection 3/3)
O46 2 10 Shotgun 4-wide 1 0 4 NIckel even 6 Pass Sack N/A -7
Patterson’s first read is not there and then he’s buried. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2)
M47 3 17 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Dime even 5 Pass Comeback Lodge 11
Good protection; second or third read from Patterson finds Lodge coming open on a comeback route well short of the sticks. Patterson pulls Lodge off his feet with a slightly low throw. (MA, 2, protection 2/2)
O14 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel under 6 Pass Stop Lodge 9
Another CB blitz that converts a route, it looks like, as Lodge just stops when his guy goes in. Patterson sees it and throws it; Lodge runs over the filling S to near a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M35 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel over 6 Pass Flare screen RB Inc
LT fails to cut the playside DE and he bats the ball down. This is not a BA because it’s a screen he has to throw. (not charted, screen, protection 0/1)
M35 3 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Dime even 5 Pass Screen RB 12
Wide open and an easy conversion. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
O49 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 8 Pass Fade WR Inc (Pen +15)
Strange all around here as Vandy goes zero on second and five; instead of running a post or something that would take advantage of it it’s another fade route. This one is way long but probably because the CB latched onto the WR and slowed him, drawing a flag. (not charted, N/A, protection 1/1)
M25 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 3-2 dime 5.5 Pass Hitch Brown 10
Easy conversion as the CB lined up over Brown slides down into the box and then tries to recover. Expecting a run, I guess. Easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)

WELL I CERTAINLY FEEL REFRESHED

welcome back

LET'S TALK ABOUT OUR LORD AND SAVIOR SHEA PATTERSON

Sacrelicious as always, I see.

GIVE ME THE GOOD STUFF NOW

This game was sort of muted? Three of Patterson's touchdowns were gifts from Vanderbilt safeties, another long completion was a WR bailout, and aside from one drive that started off in first and 26 somehow, Patterson was almost always operating near midfield or closer to Vandy's goal line. When you get 58 yards on a basic RPO slant…

…you're gonna have a good time. Also when the one-high safety turns his back on the slot receiver and goes to the wrong hash.

The other long TD was so open it wasn't worth clipping.

Despite the ease of the big plays, add it up and it's another level than Michigan's QB play from a year ago:

SHEA PATTERSON

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR PFF
Vandy   5 16(4)+     3   3   1 1 4(1) 1   74% -

What's more, those negative events were almost all of the benign variety: inaccurate balls on tough downfield sideline routes, a ball thrown away despite a lot of time, a failure to understand that the half was about to end. Other than a couple of passes batted at the line (one did not get charted because it was a screen), no Vandy defender touched the ball. There are no starred ohshit throws. The worst thing he did was throw a flare screen behind his running back on the one drive Ole Miss was backed up.

And while he was provided some easy long TD he hit every one of those throws with precision. Patterson's accuracy in this game was impressive. He wasn't just hitting guys, he was hitting them in the facemask. This qualified as one of his less precise throws.

I mentioned it in the table, and then thought "why am I mentioning this completely standard throw?" Because it wasn't in a guy's facemask.

Five DO throws? Are we grading on a hope curve?

Well, I never. While Patterson's TDs were mostly routine throws there were a selection of eye-openers. Ole Miss threw a lot of fades last season—I'm betting that that's one reason they got crushed vs LSU and Alabama—and Patterson displayed excellent, consistent touch on them. Ole Miss's crew of burly WRs is capable with the ball in the air, but they're not exactly blazers. This was a fairly typical outcome of the many fades:

There's not a lot of window there and Patterson hits it. When he missed it was usually a narrow thing. One glanced off DK Metcalf's fingertips…

…others were very good, accurate throws to blanketed receivers, like this Prothro catch:

This is a perfect throw if the WR didn't get beat up on his route. Since he did and your formation—everyone in the boundary, solo WR to field on the hash—is designed to give your WR a ton of room to the sideline on a fade route, I assume the back shoulder is option 1B and should be thrown. There were a couple of these.

OTOH, the back shoulder is in his toolbox and was the throw on Patterson's most impressive TD:

He looked the part of the five-star in this game.

Are you still on this Tate Forcier comparison?

Tate Forcier is a nice comparison! The guy failed out shortly after declaring it was impossible to fail out, yeah. While on the field, he was really promising as a pass-first run-second spread QB. Patterson is also that. Here's his best Tate vs ND impression:

He's not exactly dynamic. He's going to lose in space against a DB or linebacker most of the time, and when Ole Miss did pop him open for a chunk play he slid way too early.

We talked about this a ton last year, but sliding like that is probably more dangerous than just getting tackled.

The other point of comparison with Forcier is Patterson's ability to slide around the pocket, or break outside, and make a play out of busted protections. This incompletion might be Patterson's most impressive pass on the day, as it's a pinpoint back-foot throw that nearly results in a 15-yard out despite the pressure:

Here he's able to re-set in the pocket and find Lodge for a chunk:

He's extremely comfortable on the move, even when rolling left as a right-handed QB.

Patterson's ability to keep plays alive and then strike downfield is very Tate-like… and by God if there's any team configuration that cries out for a Tate-alike, "this team is awesome except for the worst pass protection in the country last year" is it.

What does it mean for the future?

Judgment is withheld until I can get handle on the dual LSU/Alabama debacles, but Patterson's extremely consistent fade delivery leapt out in this game, as did his comfort when throwing from non-standard-pocket-statue body positions.

I think I phrased some of my talk about Patterson poorly, causing folks to think I'm relatively down on him. When I said he doesn't look like a typical five star, what I meant was he didn't look like your typical pro-style lumber-cannon, like Stanford's endless procession of five-star guys who don't quite work out. He looks like a scrappy underdog sort who gets ranked #159th. Then he uncorks those fades.

Comments

Michigan4Life

May 7th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^

AJ Brown is considered to be one of the top prospect for 2019 draft.

 

Also, I watched plenty of Ole Miss games and his backup Jordan Tam'au looked better than Patterson. The emergence of Tam'au is one of the bigger reason why Patterson decided to transferred out of Ole Miss. If he was entrenched as a starting QB, I bet he wouldn't transfer.

That being said, Tam'au struggled in the last two games of the season but otherwise, he was pretty strong in his debut season.

Blue in Paradise

May 7th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^

Out. A lot Spartys and SEC types have been reciting that narrative. It is ridiculous, his people had feelers out before the season after Freeze got canned. Ole Miss turned into a dumpster fire and the additional sanctions put the nail in the coffin.

Tam’au looked good against terrible defenses, and not as good as Shea looked against terrible defenses. Tam’au played one good defense and he looked ok.

Let’s see what Tam’au does against Bama, LSU and Auburn. My guess is that he will not be good - I guess we will find out in 4 months.

Sam1863

May 7th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^

I don't mind at all the Tate Forcier comparison, as long as it's physical and not mental. I still remember fondly Tater's TD option run against ND.

If you listen closely you still hear the echoes of the Irish safety's ankles breaking.

Caesar

May 7th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^

Damn it, Brian. Your nuance is putting me on a roller coaster. This whole post seems really positive. It's like Tate Forcier with a better arm, which sounds to me like a more even-keeled Johnny Football, which is for-real 5 star territory.

DoubleB

May 8th, 2018 at 3:43 AM ^

Manziel ran for nearly 1500 yards as a sophomore and 21 TDs. Patterson is good at creating time within the pocket and can keep teams honest in the run game but I think he had negative rushing yards this past season.

BlueSky

May 7th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^

Based on this tape.



Arm strength

Football intelligence

Playmaker



The intelligence will be a big factor in learning a new playbook. He looks to be more than fine.

elhead

May 7th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^

“... the Ole Miss OL fell apart against top-end rushers and Patterson spent a lot of time running for his life.” does not portend similar concerns this fall. Go Blue!

KC Wolve

May 7th, 2018 at 8:57 PM ^

Others have mentioned this, but my fav part of this write up and others about him are the “sure those were routine throws, but he hit them all in stride” or whatever exact quote. For years, we have seen QB after QB miss a guy open on a downfield route. Stupid ESPN announcers would say, “he’s open, but just overthrown or whatever”. While it wouldn’t be a big deal to them, it would rip our hearts out because we consistently see those throws missed. Just hit an open guy. That’s all I fucking ask at this point. If he can hit the guys that are open and some of the ones that are sort of open but covered, it’s going to be a very welcome change to what we have seen aside from a random Iowa transfer.

wahooverine

May 7th, 2018 at 10:02 PM ^

I’m of a mind that he’s gonna light it up this year. Year 1 of Harbaugh we got Jake Ruddock. We’d all take that year of stats and general level of competence at the QB position his year in a heartbeat. Year 4 of (extra motivated) Harbaugh, with better talent across the board and now a mobile 5 star QB instead of an Iowa cast off, will surpass that. [insert convince me I’m wrong meme]

Fezzik

May 8th, 2018 at 12:55 AM ^

I think Shea is actually getting underrated by most of the board. Cautious optimism is not a bad place to be considering how many last year thought Speight was going to play himself into a 2018 NFL draft pick. But I am still all aboard the Patterson hype train. He will make this season special.

Hail-Storm

May 8th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^

with Tate and Denard in it.  Denard had a great career as a QB, however,he never had the the running back beside him that could strike fear in a defense.  With him in the back field next to Tate, who was a better thrower, and a decent enough runner, the defenses really would have been thrown into lose lose choices on who to gaurd.  Add into it, the possibility of Denard taking a handoff and still making a pass, and we would have a had a return of the mad amgicians.  Sure, the defense was going to be what it was, but atleast we could have seen an offense that would be just rediculous.  

Tate was fun to watch, so hope that if Shea wins, he's just as fun. 

Lawyer12

May 8th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

This kid strikes me as a kid that is accustomed to winning, expects to win, and hates to lose. That should be a star all of its own when rating QB’s. I wish they had made the Amazon documentary this year, I’ll bet it would have been a shockingly different team attitude.

Hajado

May 8th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^

Who seems like the ass kicking QB’s Michigan used to have. Harbaugh, Henne, Wangler, etc. Peters seems like a future orthopedic surgeon. Which is great for him. I’ll take the ass kickers every time