Unverified Voracity Explores Zero And Uh... Nero? Hero? Comment Count

Brian

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[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

If it keeps going like this I'll learn to spell "renaissance" correctly on the first try. Rob Dauster on Michigan's elite... defense? That is what the card says. Defense.

As surprising as that decision was, the dots connected. Yaklich, like Beilein, spent his life as a teacher and a high school coach before breaking into the college ranks. Unlike Beilein, however, Yaklich has prided himself in his ability to get the most out of a team on the defensive end of the floor.

“As a high school coach, I focused entirely on defense,” Yaklich said. At the high school level, coaching offense is more about skill development, about making your players better shooters, better ball-handlers, better scorers. Figure out a handful of things that you can have success with and trust your players to make plays. “My high school coaches instilled that in me. When I went to Illinois State, I naturally grew into that role. We didn’t have a defensive coordinator, but my voice, that’s what I took pride in.”

At Michigan, that is, quite literally, Yaklich’s role. He was hired to coach Michigan’s defense, to be their defensive coordinator, and the success that the Wolverines have had on that end cannot be overlooked. Prior to this season, Beilein never had a team finish higher than 37th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. In the last four seasons, the Wolverines never finished higher than 69th.

“The smartest thing is I stopped coaching it so much,” Beilein said of his team’s defensive improvement. “I let other people become the voice of it. I wanted one guy, that’s all he thinks about all day long.”

I'm not taking credit for suggesting that Beilein needs a defensive coordinator. But I'm not not taking credit. I will be ambiguously pleased.

Similar resumes. I should have posted this a couple days ago when it was slightly different, with the Stauskas Elite Eight team at the top of the list. But anyway here's Bart Torvik's list of resumes most similar to Michigan's in recent committee history:

image

Nik and company are still #3. These are all at least three seeds and 40% of them are twos. I haven't seen anything else suggesting Michigan can get to a two, but hopefully that indicates Jerry Palm's (and 30% of the matrix's) 4-seed is off.

There is exactly one bracket that puts Michigan on the five line, but it's KPI. For some reason KPI is on the teamsheets, so hooray for that.

One of many maximum Beilein moments. A man who recognizes his own limitations.

Unbalanced schedule FTL. This year was an excellent example of how the Big Ten's schedule cheapens the regular season title. A gent calling himself "Wicked_UMD"—must be a St. Cloud State fan—analyzed how the schedule rotation affected expected wins in league play:

Team Exp Win Delta
Michigan State 1.09
Northwestern 0.66
Purdue 0.65
Nebraska 0.51
Ohio State 0.46
Iowa 0.18
Indiana 0.16
Minnesota 0.02
Wisconsin -0.08
Illinois -0.10
Penn State -0.43
Rutgers -0.77
Michigan -0.81
Maryland -1.27

That half-win edge over Purdue had a fairly good shot at costing the Boilers a share of the title, and Michigan is almost two wins back of MSU—flip that first Purdue game and that is also a title-altering schedule gap.

The net result is a cheapening of the regular season title. Adding two conference games will help somewhat, but only somewhat: each team still misses almost half the conference for a second game annually. There is a way to create a maximally meaningful and fair conference race with just one extra game:

Alternative: 19 game conference schedule.

PHASE 1: round robin.
PHASE 2: line is drawn between 7th and 8th teams in the league. Mini-leagues subsequently play round-robin. Rutgers is relegated to the Big East every year.

PROS: Absolutely fair. Winner is undisputed. Makes Big Ten title a huge important deal. Final six games for teams that make upper half would be knock-down drag out brutal free-for-all for league title. Would give top teams impregnable schedule strength. You could televise the schedule draw with Ronaldo and Messi in suits.

CONS: May cost league NCAA bids if the best team in the bottom half can't get any marquee wins in the last six games or the worst team in the top half just gets blitzed. Bottom half is just kind of sadly playing out the string. Uncertainty about final three home games may impact ticket sales negatively. Extremely distant possibility that the 8th best team 13 games in can climb all the way to the top.

This will never happen because the folks in charge are more interested in milking as much money out of college basketball than making a drastic and potentially awesome change. But seriously you guys.

Mo draft stock. The Draft Express gents on Michigan's center:

Despite his limitations, and the diminishing market for players his size, there's still a role in today's NBA for a highly skilled big man who can space the floor and plays with a competitive spirit. Wagner is young for a junior, not turning 21 until the end of April, so he has time to continue to improve considering he was already a late bloomer to begin with. He'd likely get picked somewhere in the second round if he decided to keep his name in the draft but also could benefit from coming back for his senior year and continuing to work on his weaknesses, namely his defense, passing and overall feel for the game.

They rank him 55th, so not even towards the top of the second round. SI has an extensive Big Ten Tournament scouting article that comes to a similar conclusion:

Draft Projection: Second Round

After testing and staying in school last year, Wagner has definitely improved, although he’s still a bit of an acquired taste among scouts. It depends on what you value in your bigs, and his considerable offensive skills will be worth the risk to some teams despite his lackluster defense and physical limitations in that area. Wagner excels as a screener and post-up option and has a good feel for finding pockets in the defense. He’s heavy-footed and looks a bit clumsy at times, but his skill level facing up, attacking closeouts and keeping defenders honest gets the job done in college. He gets some credit for helping lift Michigan to the title (and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player) but the Wolverines won more by playing great team basketball than relying on Wagner to carry them.

It'll be up to Wagner's whim. He's not in the range where he's going to get a guaranteed contract and may end up in the G-League. The money there isn't great so he might decide he'd rather play under the bright lights of the NCAA than for the Fort Wayne Mad Antz even if he delays his earnings a year. If the consensus is that he'll stick on a roster that's a totally different matter.

FWIW, SI on Matthews:

Draft Projection: 2019

The former Kentucky transfer has been plagued by consistency issues throughout his career but has an outside chance at the league depending on how much he can improve over the course of the next year. “I can’t put my finger on what he does well,” says one scout, the sentiment being that Matthews is best suited as a 3-and-D wing given the heavy demand for such players. He has the right type of body to fit in the league, but struggles to create his own offense and has to simplify his approach. He did hit a pair of threes against Michigan State, but must improve his shot selection and become a consistently impactful defender to succeed in the NBA.

Silver lining from his collapse midseason is that Michigan doesn't have to worry about his departure after just one year.

The hopes are dangerously up. George Sipple of the Free Press checks in with Quinn and Jack Hughes, who's currently the projected #1 pick in the 2019 draft. In addition to various items about how he is a generational hockey player is this tantalizing possibility:

Two Hughes at U-M in 2019?
There’s a chance Jack could join his older brother at Michigan next season. The middle Hughes has not committed anywhere, and Ellen and Jim acknowledge U-M is one possibility.

Michigan has had players accelerate to play college hockey early. Jack is currently in his junior year of high school, but, through online courses, he could go on an accelerated academic track, and graduate early to be able to play collegiality next year.

Jack sought exceptional status to play in the Ontario Hockey League as a 15-year-old, but was denied. Among the short list of players who have been granted that status to play a year early are John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad and Connor McDavid, who are now in the NHL. …

“It could be a perfect scenario,” Jim said of Jack going to U-M. “But they’re not there yet. The beauty is Jack is in a really great spot right now. He values the development he’s getting with Seth and Wrobo.”

For perspective, Hughes is playing up with the U18s as a U17:

Adding Hughes—and presumably keeping Quinn—would radically change next year's outlook.

Brandon Johns highlights. He is up for Mr. Basketball and looks like a perfect fit as a Beilein 4:

His main competition is David DeJulius, it appears.

One and done done? The NBA's one and done rule was always more about the NBA than college basketball, and now that they've got Lebron and a former president criticizing it publicly it may not be long for this world. The proposal is wrought with frippery that attempts to make it seem like one-and-done wasn't a selfish act from the drop:

Current NBA commissioner Adam Silver and several of his top advisers have been engaged in listening tours and information-gathering missions with an array of stakeholders for months. That has included formal meetings with the National Basketball Players Association about adjusting the so-called "one-and-done" age-limit rule. But Silver's aim is much more comprehensive than simply re-opening the door for 18-year-olds to play in the NBA, sources said.

A plan is expected to include the NBA starting relationships with elite teenagers while they are in high school, providing skills to help them develop both on and off the court. It would ultimately open an alternate path to the NBA besides playing in college and a way 18-year-olds could earn a meaningful salary either from NBA teams or as part of an enhanced option in the developmental G League, sources said.

The NCAA is either going to work with the NBA to keep a healthy number of future stars in college basketball or lose them all because of their archaic rules. Survey says it'll be the former because the people in charge care about money.

Etc.: I summon the Bracket Leak Hero from his home in Valhalla. Daily on Lavigne. Also Boka. Amateurism under attack, repeatedly, FBI investigation is good.

Comments

SFBlue

March 7th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^

OK, I understand this love for Yaklich. But him blowing up like this will only mean he leaves to coach a mid-major program sooner rather than later. 

TrueBlue2003

March 7th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

more as an assistant at Michigan than a HC at a mid-major, something in the 500-700k range.  If money isn't an issue, he should want to stay a couple more years to mentor under Beilein because he'd get more out of that for his long-term development than leaving now.

Then in a couple years, if Beilein isn't ready to hang it up yet, it'd be fine if he left (and at that point, he'd probably be in line for a mid-level major program).  We'd get to see how he does as a HC before committing.  Coaching trees are good.

Definitely don't want him leaving after this year though so give the guy a raise.

schreibee

March 7th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^

WTF does JH - or football at all - have to do with the Beilein/Yaklich tree?

JB - God praise his name - is wrapping his 11th season at Michigan, and no one has ever ONCE ripped him for not winning the league, whether regular season or BTT.

Now, message board "experts" were EAGER to jump on him for perceived recruiting shortcomings. Not so much lately. You think Harbaugh will get as many years at Michigan to make the CFP as JB got to make the Final 4? (hint: year 6)

Just sayin...

 

skurnie

March 7th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^

Robinson went from the worst defender on the team to Difference Maker in 10 months. I'd say he is now an above average defender. He's out here blocking shots!

I think it's helped him become a much better rebounder as well--his positioning is much better. 

Gosh I wonder what Coach Yak could have done with Zak Irvin. 

TrueBlue2003

March 7th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^

he's still average, at best, and the metrics back that up.  Ace mentioned just last week, his on-ball defense was at 37th percentile per Synergy.  That's well below average.  He has been a really solid help-side defender (the blocks are an example) but that still probably just gets him up to average.

And that's great for him.  He was a massive liability last year.  Now, he's basically neutral on defense (helped by some good defensive schemes), which means that combined with his offensive prowess, he's a plus player now, sometimes plus-plus depending on matchups. 

EGD

March 7th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^

If this works out, would Hughes enroll in the fall and play the whole season, or would it be like football where he enrolls in January? Worth it even in the latter scenario, IMO.

lhglrkwg

March 7th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

It would probably look like what Zach Werenski, Jack Eichel (BU) and Noah Hanifin (Boston College) did where they graduated high school early and enrolled in college for what should be their senior year of high school. That allowed BU and BC to get a guy for a year that otherwise would've forgone college entirely and went to the NHL and it turned Werenski from a one-year guy into a two year guy.

Getting Hughes probably gets us one year with him since he's close to the Eichel track, but that would be a great thing to have even if it's just for a single season

stephenrjking

March 7th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^

There is no doubt it would only be one year. It would still be great.

A cautionary note: Even if MIchigan is loaded with talent next year, nothing is guaranteed. Eichel was everything he was hyped to be at BU, but they didn't win a national title. Nor did Minnesota when they snagged Phil Kessel. One man does not win a championship.

Trebor

March 7th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^

Yes, one player does not win a championship. However, Hughes, on a strictly talent based evaluation, is at another level beyond both Eichel and Kessel at the same age. The biggest knock on Hughes right now is that he's pretty undersized (5'10", 157). Eichel was 6'2", 194 during his freshman year at BU, and Kessel was 6'0", 203 at Minnesota.

But compare their U-17 seasons (all of them were bumped up to the U-18 teams halfway through the season because of their skill level), and it's ridiculous what Hughes is doing this year (also added Auston Matthews for fun; should Hughes choose to stay at the NTDP for his U-18 year, it'd be interesting to see if he could make a run at Matthews' program record 117 points):

Jack Hughes:
U-17 - 24 GP, 13-35-48
U-18 - 21 GP, 10-24-34

Auston Matthews:
U-17 - 24 GP, 12-21-33
U-18 - 20 GP, 12-5-17

Jack Eichel:
U-17 - 36 GP, 19-15-34
U-18 - 22 GP, 10-8-18

Phil Kessel:
U-17 - 32 GP, 31-18-49
U-18 - 30 GP, 21-12-33

stephenrjking

March 7th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

I'm not trying to equate Hughes to other guys on terms of skill level, but rather using them as examples of singular prospects who played a year in college (that everyone knew would be just a year) and what happened as a result. Keep in mind that Eichel and Kessel both had stacked rosters surrounding them; Michigan's roster still has work to do.

The upside here is that Hughes, were he to come to Michigan, would be an immediate Hobey favorite, and a season at least analogous to Kyle Connor (better talent, weaker linemates) should be expected.

But that in itself won't win a national title. My recollection suggests that you have to go back to Paul Kariya in 1993 to find a singular talent on this scale actually win a title, and that Maine team was loaded even without Kariya on it (and they still almost lost to Michigan in the semis). 

A lot of this is just for the purposes of perspective--nobody should be pencilling Michigan into the title game if by some miracle Hughes is on the team next year. But should that be a possibility that is exciting?

Yes. Yes it should. 

Trebor

March 7th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^

I know you weren't trying to equate them, I was just bringing up that Hughes, should he continue to develop as he has to this point, is on a skill level the NCAA hasn't seen in a while. A lot of scouts are pegging him to be a notch below the McDavid/Crosby tier, on par with guys like Tavares/Stamkos/Kane. As good as Eichel was, he was always second fiddle to McDavid in an otherwise weak draft, and plays a more traditional two-way skilled center role than the lightning-in-a-bottle excitement that Hughes brings to the table. Kessel was a world-class finisher and probably the closest to Hughes' insane hype, but wingers generally can't control games by themselves like centers can.

Honestly, if Hughes were to join Michigan's roster next season, my biggest fear for him is that I don't really see anyone on the roster who can be the finisher Hughes would truly thrive with. Maybe pop Norris out to the wing? He's been somewhat disappointing this year, but did lead the U-18 team in goals last year .

stephenrjking

March 7th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^

Midseason additions aren't common at all. Red Berenson did it, but that was a loooong time ago. 

And there's no real motive for Hughes to do that a couple of months before he's going to be drafted.

I think his most likely scenario, should he decline to enroll in college this fall, is to spend a year in the CHL, where his rights are currently held by Mississauga. His attempt to qualify for the OHL at 15 shows that he's willing to go that direction if it's best for him, and he has already proven literally everything he can prove at the NTDP. This is a player who will be on an NHL roster in fall of 2019, so his major purpose now is to best prepare himself for that moment in the year and a half before that occurs.

There's nothing slimy about this, btw. The CHL offers top-level competition, a long season and a great playoff. All available sooner than he can enroll in college. But, if he finishes his schooling early, college offers top-level competition, a decent season, a chance to play with his brother, and a more enjoyable experience both at school and at Yost (the contrast with Mississauga's soulless, perpetually empty rink could not be more striking. Watch out if London or Kitchener start sniffing around for a trade, though). 

 

Indy Pete - Go Blue

March 7th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^

Like all of us, I wish for nothing but success for Mo in the future. I would love to have him succeed in the NBA with a long career. However, these scouts are giving me this scary hope that he migt actually come back for his senior year. Just imagine another year with Mo, Z, Teske, Matthews, Poole, Livers, Brooks, and on an insanely talented freshman class!  The chemistry is already there. It would be a sure fire top 10 team, again!

J.

March 7th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

Keep in mind, Michigan has one more player committed to the 2019 team than they have scholarships available, so one person needs to transfer or reclassify.

I really hope that whomever that is does so voluntarily.  All of the national championships in the world aren't worth seeing John Beilein turn into Chris Collins.

bronxblue

March 7th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

I don't see Beilein ever getting close to a Chris Collins-type situation.  My guess is that there are a couple of guys on the roster now who know where they stand and how likely future playing time is or isn't.  

I also sorta-assume Wagner is leaving regardless of his draft prognosis.  I know guys talk about heading back and improving on his game, but his defense and overall athleticism aren't going to get demonstrably better with another year, and his offensive game would be appealing to a team like, say the Spurs or the Raptors, who can stash him for a bit and see if he can develop a consistent second-unit offensive game.

J.

March 7th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^

I hope you're right.  I don't see Beilein going all Collins -- it doesn't seem to be in his personality.  I just don't want to be wrong about that. :)

And, yes, I'm not sure another year in college meaningfully changes Wagner's draft grade.  But he might just enjoy playing at Michigan and might want to get a degree.  If he were most concerned with NBA development, he probably would have stayed in Germany.

The kid who couldn't stop smiling -- or hugging his mom -- on Sunday didn't look like someone who was eagerly looking to move on.

wayneandgarth

March 7th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^

Got to say, love that alternative 19 game B1G MBB schedule proposal.  That would be such an exciting way to play out the last six games of the season. 

I'm sure such a scheduling/ticketing issue (or that it would be too much fun) that it wont' happen. 

Mr Miggle

March 7th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^

1) Everyone would get an uneven number of home/away games where it's even now.

2) Very high chances of teams playing two road (or home) games vs the same opponent

(The only way that doesn't happen is if every team had played 3 road and 3 away games vs the other teams in their second group.)

3) Tiebreaks between the sections would be a very big deal. Not an issue now in basketball.

4) Obvious problems with selling tickets. Teams stuck in the lower half are going to be hurt. Not knowing the dates of the home games in advance will too, especially those set only days ahead of time. Fine for TV though.

Maybe all of the problems would be worth it if there was no BTT. This seems somewhat redundant with it.  

BlueLikeJazz

March 7th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

It would wreak havoc on the B1G tourney. Unless you did screwy stuff with seeding, a few bottom half teams would annually get higher seeds than a few upper half teams.

So if you value the regular season title more than the tourney, fair enough, but this plan might render the tourney as meaningless as the regular season is now.

lilpenny1316

March 7th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^

Keep the 18 game schedule, but the last few weekends could be used to correct some of the scheduling issues.  This season, we could have hosted MSU on the last weekend of the season instead of going to Maryland.  Instead of Nebraska playing PSU, they could have played Purdue.  It's possible that if something like this was in place, Nebraska would have had their marquee win in the regular season to be in the tournament.  And we might have a different regular season champ.

For traveling purposes, it might be hard to rearrange itineraries for fans, but weekends would be a little bit easier.

stephenrjking

March 7th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

Is Europe an option for Mo for a year? I'm not sure if it would be wise, but draft stock is a tough thing to balance. Guys tend to drop when they stay in school, because teams learn their weaknesses and limitations--DJ Wilson absolutely made the right move to bolt while his stock was high. Mo could come back, improve in every area, and still drop.

J.

March 7th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^

But it was an option last year, and the year before, also.  And it's an option after one more year at Michigan -- there's no law that says you have to go directly from college to the NBA.  He seems to prefer playing at Crisler to playing in Munich.

TrueBlue2003

March 7th, 2018 at 6:47 PM ^

You're absolutely correct that draft stock is a tough thing.  He improved his rebounding this year, dramatically, and seems to have fallen in scout's eyes.  Certainly not a gaurantee that coming back will help his stock and very likely could hurt for the reasons you mention.

Either way, he's going to get a shot to earn an NBA contract at some point, and if he doesn't make it, he'll have a good career in Germany. At this point for him, it probably is just a matter of personal preference in terms of whether he wants to play another year in Ann Arbor or start that professional career by taking a shot at earning an NBA contract via summer/G-league.

Let's hope for him and Michigan that he slays this NCAA tournament and carries us to the final four in a way that has scouts drooling and it makes his decision easy.

MH20

March 7th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^

Any ranking system that spits out a 5-seed for Texas A&M and 7-seeds for Alabama and Oklahoma is totally worthless. That it has Michigan as the last 5 is beyond ridiculous. Message to the creator: your formula sucks.

TrueBlue2003

March 7th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^

it appears that they built the model to predict where teams would be seeded (instead of how good a team actually is).  They list top 50 record as a metric and while I'm only assuming that's a model input, it won't be used this year by the committee like it was used in the past.

The committee is slowly getting smarter about the metrics it uses so their criteria is a moving target and my guess is these types of models aren't going to be as good this year as they were in the past.

Why the committee would use a model that is simply trying to predict its own behavior is baffling, so maybe I'm wrong about it.

I would be absolutely shocked if we aren't a three seed.

MGoBender

March 7th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^

I have a Mr. Basketball vote.  Who should I pick?  

 

 

(In case the FBI/MHSBCA is out there, I'm not selling my vote and not guaranteeing I'll go with the MGoBlogerati)