Texas A&M: Large Men And Dollar Store Rob Gray
A first glance at Texas A&M.
Tyler Davis is wondering if the back of those jerseys says FORM
This team is not that team. Texas A&M's season is split into two halves: a rip-roaring nonconference schedule that saw them rise to #5 in the polls and #4 on Kenpom, and a 9-9 SEC season. A&M beat WVU, Oklahoma State, Penn State, and USC away from home and fell narrowly to Arizona in a virtual road game. Then they hit the skids.
The #1 reason for this is the loss of their point guard, Marquette grad transfer Duane Wilson. Wilson went down with an injury after the SEC opener against Alabama; he missed three games, returned as a shadow of himself for nine games in which his eFG was 33%, and finally went out for the season on February 13th.
Per Bart Torvik's system, A&M was the #14 team in the country before Wilson went out the first time and #35 after, largely because of a drop in defensive efficiency. In the nine-game sample since Wilson went out for the second and final time they're 82nd, and their offense is also languishing in that precise spot. This includes their hamblasting of UNC.
A&M had a brief section of the season where a spate of injuries took down Wilson, DJ Hogg, and Admon Gilder for 3-6 game stretches but they've been healthy outside of the Wilson injury for a couple months now and their performance has been iffy.
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Starks is the rare 30 usage, 90 ORTG guy
Maybe try a man bun? In Wilson's absence A&M has turned to freshman TJ Starks, the aforementioned Dollar Store Rob Gray. Like Gray, Starks is a 6'2" PG with 30 percent usage and a healthy assist rate. There the comparisons stop. Starks has a TO rate higher than his assist rate and is shooting 43/33 from the floor with a mediocre free-throw rate. He's had at least 4 TOs in 10 of his last 11 games and aside from one anomaly against Vanderbilt hasn't gotten his ORTG above 106 during that span. On the season he's at 88, and there is no recent upward trend.
Starks is completely bonkers, and I have the stat to prove it. Despite spending much of the year as a backup he leads A&M with 92 transition attempts. eFG on those? 41%. IE, worse than his half court offense.
A&M's highest usage guy is by far their least efficient. Not a great combination.
Large, though. This team is even bigger than the SDSU team that veritably loomed as a potential second-round matchup. A&M's 6th in the country in effective height because they roll out three 6'10" guys and a 6'9" guy. The 6'9" guy, Hogg, would be a stretch four in a normal line up—he's hitting 38% on 167 threes. He is A&M's small forward by necessity.
The 6'10" guys are pure posts without much stretch to them. Tonny Trocha-Morelos gets up about 2 3PA per game and hits at 31%; other than that threes from the bigs are bad-idea shots that occasionally go up anyway. Trocha-Morelos is a dunk-on-dish guy at the rim; Tyler Davis and Robert Williams both have significant post-up game. I'd expect a bunch of Duncan Robinson post D events. Ditto Wagner.
As you might expect, this old-school approach leads to a lot of backboard volleyball. A&M is 30th in OREBs and near 300th in both 3PA/FGA and 3P%.
A&M runs. Per Synergy, 19% of A&M possessions are in transition and while they're not great (58th percentile) they are a ton better than they are in the half court, where they score just 0.84 points per possession against man to man D—22nd percentile.
By contrast, just 11% of opponent shots against Michigan are in transition and Michigan is the best team in the country at defending even the small number of runouts that they endure.
And they D up. A&M doesn't have any real weaknesses on defense. The worst aspect of their D is that about 26% of opposition shots are spot-ups and they're only a little bit above average at defending those. Everything else is very good to excellent. There is a glaring issue on Kenpom, as A&M is in the 300s at forcing turnovers, but they're so good at everything else it doesn't really matter. As you might imagine, they block a lot of shots—8th nationally.
The Aggies are mostly a man team but do run out a 2-3 zone on about a fifth of their possessions. Michigan is definitely going to get some of that early and possibly a lot of it if Michigan bogs down against it. With traditional bigs at the 4 and 5 chasing around Wagner, Robinson, and Livers it might be A&M's plan from the drop.
tfw you're shooting 6% from 3
What happened against North Carolina? A perfect storm of three point luck. UNC started out the game 1/17, A&M started 7/17. By the time the game ended those numbers had expanded to 6/31 and 10/24. A&M's three point defense is good enough to assume that some of it is real skill, but nobody's got true skill to hold UNC to 19%, and anyone who watched that game can tell you that most of UNC's looks were high quality.
Meanwhile, A&M hit 42% and launched 40% of their shots from three.
The two point stats are also slanted heavily in A&M's favor but that was in large part because the three point shooting had sunk UNC so far down that they started getting desperate with 10+ minutes left. UNC threw up a ton of quick, bad shots; they pressed to open up a bunch of A&M dunks.
It looks like just one of those things, a ruthless run of bad luck on both ends of the court for the Tarheels. I would not expect one part of that—A&M's mad bombing—to continue against a team like Michigan that just shut down catch-and-shoot threes against Houston and is top ten at preventing launches on the season. Unfortunately, it is easy to project Michigan building a mighty wall of bricks, since it seems like they do about every other game even when they're not facing a team of huge dudes.
General shape of game. This is going to be another slugfest. A&M is going to dump it in to their big guys and dare Michigan not to double them, both because they're excellent at posting and Michigan has weak post defense and because they might get a foul on Wagner that would limit his ability to stretch A&M's defense out of shape.
Not to offer Luke Yaklich advice but I might be inclined to double much harder than Michigan has to date. Anything that forces Starks to create is probably better for M than post-ups despite the latter's inherent inefficiency. None of the A&M bigs have much in the way of an assist rate. And keeping Wagner on the floor should be a major priority given the issues A&M's defense presents.
When Michigan has the ball I'd expect a brief period of chasing Robinson off screens and trying to deal with pick and pop with Wagner before A&M settles in and plays a 2-3 zone for most of the game. Who hates that idea? This guy.
Michigan should have an edge in shot volume since A&M is pretty bad in all TO departments and Michigan's been proficient on the defensive boards; they should have a big edge in 3PAs. It'll come down to how much Michigan's defense is hurt by a couple of very legit post-up bigs versus Michigan hitting an acceptable number of threes.
Starks has a TO rate higher than his assist rate and is shooting 43/33 from the floor
Holy curds; we're dead!
Edit: Wait, is this 2FG%/3FG%? Uh. . . . never mind.
If I put on my maize glasses I can see a repeat of M-Florida 2013.
That was an elite, top-5 defense with a zone in their back pocket and just an oh-so-slight crack in the window at opponent 3PT shooting. We shot 52% from 3, blasting them from the opening tip and never looking back.
Meanwhile their offense started two true centers and had a bench full of Ents. Eric Murphy got his fair share of OREBs but shot 0-11 and did not score.
Are Wagner and Teske the same physical presence at the 5 as McGary and JMo? Probably not. Wagner's range adds an element to our offense that that team did not have, though. And Trey Burke was second on the team in rebounds that game with 8. He tied for the lead with 2 OREBs. So there are workarounds to the beef.
I think this will either be another rock fight, if we still can't flip the switch on offense, or a comfortable Michigan victory if we can. I don't see a realistic path for A&M to blow us out.
I think our offense suffered to a large part due to the insane decision of our commissioner to sacrifice the overall play of his conference teams in the tourny on the alter of Madison Square Garden. Watching all four teams this first week none of them looked like the team we last saw in our conference tournament iMO and that's on him and him alone.
That being said I think that's now behind us and on Thursday I expect our offense to re-ignite and for M to look like the team we watched roll the B1G tournament a few months ago (kidding - sort of). And I think your Florida analogy is an exellent one and I too expect a good result Thursday night.
I said it earlier, Thursday will be only our 3rd game in 18 days...
I don't think it's over...
:/
And it may very well have merit.
By the same token, Michigan and A&M are both now back on the usual 3-4 days between games cycle one would experience during conference play.
Also, keep in mind A&M lost in their opening game of the SEC tournament, so they have only played one more game since March 5 than Michigan has. Slightly less rust, yes, but I think we're evening out not.
it's time to make some shots.
It was never an excuse if you ask me. The most overblown bitch of the tourney as far as B1G schools are concerned.
so it's time for fans to stop using it.
March 19th, 2018 at 11:53 PM ^
All 4 Big Ten teams failed to cover the 1st half spread against their Round of 64 opponents. There were clearly adverse affects on Big Ten teams in coming out of the gate slow in that first round, and a strong case can be made for the second round too. Michigan's offense which was humming in the B1G tourney was bad all weekend, and OSU was playing catch up all game against Gonzaga, not to mention MSU's flop against a weak Syracuse team (though subpar coaching clearly left the team unprepared against their zone).
I don't know, our offense was complete shit outside of two purdue games for about 2 months during big ten play. Yeah we were great the last 3 games of the season and the tournament but who knows which one is the real team. I sure hope our purdues + tournament offense comes back though, that team can go all the way.
I'd hold my breath but if this is NOT a rockfight, there's something in here that indicates Texas A&M is constructed to utterly destroy every sort of offense. . . except Beilein's. Wagner is the key. If Beilein can run his five-out then like Purdue, TAMU's elite defense is not structured to chase bigs around the arc. At that point their offense isn't going to keep pace because 3>2.
The main thing that makes me nervous is that this is the sort of game the refs can absolutely take away, and I've seen just too many of those.
March 20th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
True, unless A & M goes zone, which I think they very well might if Moe starts hitting from deep and opens up the lane. Trouble with switching to zone is that it is harder than it looks--people who are good at zone tend to be exclusively zone (Syracuse), and a team that is prepared for it (Beilein will have us ready) can get good looks. You just gotta make them.
We theoretically have the ability to bomb a defense full of big guys that packs the paint and/or plays zone. Wagner, Robinson, Poole, and Rahk are all within a few percentage points of 40% on 3PA for the season. But it seems like we're incredibly inconsistent, and one of our weaknesses is that two members of our starting backcourt (Simpson and Matthews) are basically non-shooters, which limits our ability to force an opponent out of a zone.
I trust Duncan to replicate that. Plus he is more of a defensive asset (!) than Stauskas.
Also remember that Stauskas was in an asstastic slump heading into that game. In his previous four games he had shot 0/4, 1/4, 0/4, 1/4 from 3. 2/16 overall. Duncan's seniority and consistency will serve us well.
bomb them from the corner too.
Livers could/should get some looks as well. Would be really nice if he got going again because he's going to have to put in some minutes against their bigs.
we get into play more like we did in the Big 10 tourny, and less like we did in the last two games.
That plays into their hands. The key is for Beilein's offense to make them regret they have so many bigs out there.
March 19th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^
JB tried this earlier in the year. It didn't work as well as you would think.
With Wagner's fouling propensity (yes, I agree that many of his fouls are phantom), I would be hesitant to run both out at the same time for long durations. We're completely screwed if both get into foul trouble in the 1st half. I think we can tinker with this lineup in the 2nd half, assuming no foul troubles. But I like our offensive matchup if we keep Wagner at the 5 with a combination of Matthews, Robinson, and Livers on the court.
This is the game where I would gladly pay $40 to have DJ Wilson still in the lineup. A Wagner/Wilson 4/5 combination would be lethal against A&M's bigs.
March 19th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
No slight on Teske. He's absolutely critical. But the Wagner, Matthews, Robinson combo gets the most minutes, so I consider them de facto starters. My mistake was throwing Livers in with Robinson - should've left him off since he's not getting a lot of run lately.
Teske is essential. He's so essential that I don't think he will run with Wagner at the same time.
Would also love to see Livers get some big buckets. He's due.
That would be the worst idea. Running out that set, which we haven't done all year, against A&M would play right into their hands. Our spacing would be shot. Their bigs are miles better at being traditional bigs than ours are, if we try to out traditional big them we lose.
The way we win this is by exploiting those traditional bigs and making them uncomfortable. Bring them to the perimeter and play them there, which is what Moe can do best. When Teske is in the perimeter game is limited, but he can hit a jumper or two and more importantly he can be active/effective in the P&R, where A&M is only average defensively. Screen well, roll well, finish at the rim on those rolls and get a couple ORebs. If we try to out big them/post them up, we lose.
Exactly, this could be like Louisville last year.
in the recent past, I'll reiterate that it's very much viable if A&M is playing a zone, because a zone takes you out of your usual offense anyway. Having Teske in the middle of zone isn't much worse/different than having Wagner there and having Wagner around the perimeter isn't much worse/different than Duncan there.
BUT it would only happen if we needed to get both bigs in the game defensively and I still think we have a pretty high tolerance for giving up 2s to post players that we won't resort to twin towers.
Even if we're getting beat down there, my guess is we're going to keep our three point shooters on the floor and try to hit 2 3s for each of their 3 2s. Because even with the Twin Towers, they can still abuse Moe. Doesn't really help us defensively compared to a Teske/Duncan lineup, except the twin towers would be a great d rebounding lineup.
Spreading the floor isn't the same thing against a zone. Playing five out doesn't open anything up because the guy down low is still waiting for any dribble drives or cuts to the hoop. Playing five out actually hurts your spacing. The zone can be whatever shape it wants to be. It's the offenses job to find seams and openings in that zone.
Wagner creates problems for man defenses by being the pick and pop or drive guy against bigs not used to guarding that. But shot creation is also different against a zone. A zone doesn't ask a big to guard on the perimeter and keep a guy in front of him.
And that's why teams would run a zone against us: take away the dribble drive and pick and pops from Wagner and make him a guy that mostly has to roam the hi and low posts and short corner. Since that's Wagner's role against a zone, it's not very different to play Teske in that role.
With those two on the court, you could still play Robinson at the 3 instead of Matthews. You don't really lose much if anything on offense and you get a bigger lineup on defense if needed. Again, I don't think/hope we don't need this for defense and rebounding but it's much more viable against a zone because of what a zone already takes away from you.
found Tom Izzo
I am quite scared about Wagner and Duncan Rob fouling out. However, our offense is bound to be better, right? RIGHT?
I'm heading down to the game this weekend and will be staying the night. Do any locals have recommendations for hotels that aren't too expensive and relatively close to the hotel to possibly walk? Also, any good bars close to the arena for a post-game celebration?
So i've only been living here for a few months, but I live very close to downtown where Staples Center is, and can say there are a lot of hotels in the area you could stay at (look under Downtown, Koreatown, Hollywood, Echo Park/Silver Lake), but LA can get pretty seedy around downtown, so you may want to pay a little more. There are definitely lots of bars downtown around Staples Center.
It may sound expensive staying downtown, but LA's a bit different in that downtown is kind of an up-and-coming neighborhood (read: not the most expensive part of the city like most places).
I had responded (maybe too late) in an earlier thread and said you're welcome to stay on my couch, and I may even have a bedroom open.
and was going to respond but wasn't sure if you'd look back and see it. Shoot me an email to [email protected] and we'll see we could work something out.
Hotel Figueroa, the Standard (downtown), the Ace, the Biltmore are all walkable. Hotel Fig has an awesome bar out back, or it did eleven to fourteen years ago. There are some good new bars around downtown that didn't exist when I lived in LA. I wish I could remember them all. Spring Street, Bar Ama, the Falls.
most people will end up at Yardhouse or Tom's Urban at LA Live.
March 20th, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^
Been living in LA for close to two years.
Honestly, I also would consider staying in downtown Santa Monica and taking the expo line downtown for the games ($1.75 one way, super easy, clean and new train line. Stops right at Staples Center. Takes about 50 min, no transfers to other lines or anything like that). Santa Monica is closer to LAX too.
I'm personally not a huge fan of Downtown LA (relative to other big US cities, it's objectively by far the worst part of LA comparison wise. It has plenty of nice spots and is solid overall, and is more up and coming and cheaper than nicer areas, as a prior poster mentioned, but LA pales in comparison to the SFs/Chicagos/New Yorks in terms of having a vibrant downtown true "city" atmosphere. Where we blow the others out of the water is extremely diverse (albeit spread out) neighborhoods, flora, fauna, mountains, beaches, etc.)
you listed by far the best three cities in the country.
While it isn't on the level of SF, Chicago or NYC, DTLA has improved dramatically in the past 10 years, and is actually pretty good now. Would definitely take it over just about any big city's downtown except the three you listed. Lots of good restaurants, breweries, culture (the Broad Museum, Ahmanson Theatre, Little Tokyo, Chinatown, etc. among others), sports (LA Live).
I do agree that most midwesterners that come this time of year want to be near the beach, and I agree with that suggestion for people that do.
March 20th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
Boston, Minneapolis, Seattle, Atlanta would all have stronger downtowns in my opinion as well. It's not just those three.
LA is my favorite big city in the United States and I've been to the vast majority of them, but it's a hard city to visit as its sites are more spread out and nature based so you really have to plan a strong itinerary. You can't just wing it for a weekend and walk around one neighborhood and get a true LA experience.
I said DTLA has plenty of nice spots and areas, not disputing that.
Let's leave that in Wichita k thanks bye
air balls too.
whether or not they find their shot. We can't expect to shoot less than 35% and win the rest of the way. Hopefully a change of venue and an earlier start will help. The way to the final four (and championship game too) is clear of the hardest teams to beat. Just have to start making shots at a better rate to take advantage
Livers could be the most critical player in this game. It will be hard for Robinson to avoid getting called for a few fouls going up against A&M's bigs. Livers is athletic and has the threat of a 3 point shot. It may be just enough to keep A&M's bigs off balance in the front court.
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