Essentials

Overview

Michigan kicked off their 2017 campaign with an authoritative victory over a ranked Florida squad. Cincinnati kicked off their 2017 campaign with a narrow victory over Austin Peay, an FCS team that entered the year having won one of their previous 47 games. The Governors(!) outgained the Bearcats.

Tommy Tuberville left Luke Fickell in quite the hole. Fickell, who was accustomed to quite a bit more talent at Ohio State, will eventually get his program moving in the right direction, but this one is going to be ugly.

Run Offense vs Cincinnati

Cortez Broughton is a disruptive, undersized tackle.

The relative strength of this defense is the line, which returns most of the contributors from last year's #22 rush defense by yards per carry allowed. The standout up front is DT Cortez Broughton, whom Seth described as a "poor man's Mo Hurst" in this week's FFFF. He's got a quick first step that can make it tough to get hands on him off the snap; he's also 282 pounds, so getting hands on him should neutralize him.

Broughton isn't the only solid lineman. End Kevin Mouhon recorded 8.5 of his 9.5 TFLs against the run last year, and nose Marquise Copeland impressed Seth on film. The Bearcats should be relatively sound up front. Size could be an issue, however; neither DT cracks 300 pounds and both DEs are in the 250 range.

Once you get past that line, though...

Woof. The primary issue is a complete lack of linebacker-sized outside linebackers, or even competent hybrid types:

Handed a depth chart with one sorta experienced guy and one RS freshman, defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Marcus Freeman (yes THAT Marcus Freeman you incredibly old person) raided the safety ranks. His SAM is a total hybrid who’ll follow the slot receiver around if there is one, and that’s pretty typical in 2017. His WLB is…well his WLB is Jonas Mouton’s head on Brandon Harrison’s body.

MIKE Jaylyin Minor looked like Cincinnati's best defender last week. He could only make so much of an impact, however, because said Mouton-Harrison frankenbacker, Perry Young, was repeatedly exposed as a safety in way over his head at WLB. At 5'10", 205, Young is smaller than Cinci's actual hybrid space player, and if he's not running himself out of the play he should be a fun blocking dummy for the tight ends and pulling linemen. It doesn't get much better at the next level, either:

That’s the good safety—he knows where to go but gets there not-fast. He’s dead if blocked, and falls off a ton of tackles. The “bad” safety, Malik Clements (#4) is more athletic but more combustible. He was at fault for the wheel route touchdown, takes awful angles, and tends to get his face blocked off by Peay slot receivers (see the TD below). This stat boggles: he had 18 tackles in this game…2 solo. It’s more believable the fifth time you see him getting dragged on a guy’s leg.

While there will be some resistance at the line, Michigan will find plenty of room to run, and once they hit the second level some big plays are inevitable.

KEY MATCHUP: NOLAN ULIZIO and MIKE ONWENU versus BLOWING ASSIGNMENTS. Ulizio was the obvious sore spot on the line against Florida as a run-blocker as well as a pass-protector, but Onwenu also racked up a lot of negative plays against the Gators. Being in the right place at the right time is largely opponent-irrelevant, so against a team as overmatched as Cinci the main thing I want to see is a lack of obvious screw-ups up front.

[Hit THE JUMP for total annihilation]

Pass Offense vs Cincinnati

Not quite how quarters is supposed to look

While Austin Peay went only 9-for-19 for 89 yards through the air, that was mostly because the Governors didn't have a quarterback who looked viable at the college level. Cincinnati had the #90 pass defense by S&P+ last year; they were #105 in adjusted sack rate. You read Seth's take on the safeties above; he thought the corners, in limited opportunities, also looked shaky, like when they allowed a receiver to get completely behind the defense on a third-and-22 (the quarterback couldn't connect). Meanwhile, the front seven generated only one sack against Austin Peay.

Unless Nolan Ulizio couldn't start for the Governors, Michigan is going to get what they want in the passing game. The Harbauffense should open up a lot of room over the middle, while the outside receivers may just run right past a secondary that looks slow on film.

KEY MATCHUP: NOLAN ULIZIO versus DISASTER. Let's try this again with the difficulty turned way down.

Run Defense vs Cincinnati

Mike Boone has some wiggle but gets few chances to show it.

Let's start with this, via Seth, keeping in mind that a cyan circle means trouble spot:

They gon' die.

Cincinnati lost top back Tion Green, who made the Detroit Lions roster as a UDFA, and four offensive linemen from one of the worst rushing attacks in the country last year. The Bearcats had five runs of 20+ yards and one of 30+ all of last season; both marks were the worst in the country.

This looks to be almost entirely a blocking issue. Green just stuck in the pros, while new starter and last year's #2 back Mike Boone averaged 7.2 yards per carry as a sophomore before that plummeted to 3.7 YPC last year. Boone is the clear feature back this year. He had 100 yards and a score on 19 carries in the opener; quarterback Hayden Moore was the next-leading rusher with two carries for nine yards. That's a normal rushing performance for Moore, who averaged 4.7 yards per non-sack carry last year on 2-3 carries per game.

The line wasn't good last year and if anything seems to have taken a step back. The running game took a back seat against Austin Peay because Cincinnati had to game-plan around their own OL, which is hardly a good sign against a woeful FCS team. Michigan is far from a woeful FCS team.

KEY MATCHUP: DEVIN BUSH versus A TARGETING EJECTION. I really enjoy watching Bush play and would prefer he stay on the field.

Pass Defense vs Cincinnati

Alright, this guy is legit.

Fickell brought in former Notre Dame OC/passing coordinator Mike Denbrock to head up the offense, but with the severe talent deficit this doesn't exactly look like the Irish attack. Hayden Moore lacks the arm strength to consistently test defenses downfield or fit throws into tight windows, so Denbrock dialed up a ton of quick-hitting short stuff in the opener—Moore averaged only 5.4 YPA.

That's a low number given the competition (awful) and Moore's receiving corps (actually decent!). Last year's leading receiver, former JuCo transfer Devin Gray, would be a really nice deep threat if anyone could get him the ball downfield, and he's still a dangerous big-play guy with impressive ball skills. Junior Kahlil Lewis has a similar size/skill-set combo, while 6'5" sophomore Thomas Geddis was Moore's go-to option in the opener. Tight end Tyler Cogswell showed some nifty route-running on a red zone touchdown, too.

Whether any of those guys will have much of an opportunity to make an impact is an open question. Denbrock's conservative strategy wasn't just because of Moore's cap-gun arm; he threw 19 interceptions in his last two seasons despite missing a significant chunk of 2016. Meanwhile, this is Seth's assessment of their offensive line:

The offensive line returned one starter and the new kids got zero push against Peay’s DL. The right tackle, a JUCO transfer, is large but really stiff and a complete turnstile against the pass rush. The center got overpowered on the regular but seemed to know what he was doing. Both guards had trouble in all departments, getting little to no push, blowing zone combos, and occasionally providing entertainment of the “'I’m glad it’s not our guys” variety.

If Moore finishes the game, that'll be a victory unto itself.

KEY MATCHUP: DAVID LONG versus WHATEVER KEEPS BOTHERING HIM. Long has the most talent of the players vying to lock down the second corner spot, but as we saw again in the Florida game, he's had trouble avoiding minor dings to stay on the field. Even with good receivers, Cincinnati's passing game shouldn't be much of a threat with Moore likely running for his life all afternoon; I'd just like to see Long get through the game without talking to the trainers.

Special Teams

Cincinnati has a senior kicker who was quite reliable until injuring his hip last year, which cost him almost the entire season. He missed an extra point against Austin Peay. Punter James Smith is an Aussie who can do all the usual Aussie punt things. Gray ably handles both kickoff and punt returns.

Michigan has a Heisman candidate.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH MAYBE DON'T GET A PUNT BLOCKED THIS TIME

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Ulizio is still a turnstile.
• Speight is routinely sailing throws.
• The team bus is sucked into a wormhole.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan runs the ball.
• Michigan throws the ball.
• Cincinnati runs or throws the ball.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; -1 for Four Sore Spot OL Against This Defense, -1 for Their Quarterback Can't Take Advantage Of Their Best Player, -1 for Florida Is Slightly Better Than Austin Peay, -1 for Jim Harbaugh versus Luke Fickell)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for This Would Legitimately Be A Worse Loss Than The Horror).

Loss will cause me to... wander into traffic.

Win will cause me to... shrug, invest in knee braces before Air Force.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Did I mention Cincinnati was outgained by an FCS team that's won one game in the last four years? At home?

We're gonna see the whole damn roster. 

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan's defense outscores Cincinnati's offense.
• Ty Isaac has more 30+ yard run plays than the Bearcats had in 2016.
• Michigan, 61-0