About Last Week:

Life isn’t about whether you can outrun Mo Hurst. Life is about how soon you realize that oh shit Chase Winovich.

The Road Ahead:

Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 AAC)

Last week: Beat Austin Peay, 26-14

Recap: The good news for Cincinnati: they won.

The bad news: I’m staring at the tangled ball of yarn that was this game, and I don’t even know where to begin unwinding it. So we’re gonna throw it back in the junk drawer with the matches and the batteries. But before I do, I will leave you with this: Austin Peay is an FCS school. But more than that, they are the FCS school that the other FCS schools laugh at. They went 0-11 last year. They went 0-11 the year before that. They went 1-11 the year before that. They went 0-12 the year before that. Their nickname is the GOVERNORS for crying out loud.

Austin Peay outgained Cincinnati 313-248.

This team is as frightening as: did you read what I just said. Fear Level = 1.5

Michigan should worry about: A scheduling mix-up that sends the Bearcats to Baltimore to play the Ravens and brings the Bengals to Michigan Stadium.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan is better than Austin Peay by at least 13 points. Possibly more.

When they play Michigan: You know that roster everyone wanted? You’re gonna get to see it. All of it. Backups, walk-ons, managers, ushers… eeeeerybody.

Next game: at Michigan, noon

[AFTER THE JUMP: A marked decrease in the suckiness]

 

 

Air Force (1-0, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat VMI, 62-0

Recap: Air Force outgained VMI 647-95. They had sixteen different carry the football. They had nine drives that covered over 65 yards. 9 of VMI’s 12 drives were three plays long. Only one VMI drive exceeded 21 yards. VMI crossed midfield once, on their last drive late in the 4th quarter.

But other than that.

This team is as frightening as: Every game against every service academy ever. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: If you watched the Georgia Tech/Tennessee game, you saw what a well-drilled triple-option attack can do to a defense that isn’t fundamentally sound at all levels. And if I were to pick the #1 attribute of an offense to take on this Michigan defense, it would be one that forced them to play assignment football.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I’m actually somewhat comforted by the fact that Air Force can beat the hell out of the Virginia Military Institute, and would have hoped it to be the case.

Now we just have to see how VMI does against the DPRK Fightin’ Dear Leaders in Week 6 so we can get a better feel for how things are ultimately gonna go in the big matchup at the end of the year.

When they play Michigan: Knee braces. Extra knee braces. Do they make knee brace braces? And how can we properly brace THOSE?

Next game: Bye

Purdue (0-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Louisville, 35-28

Recap: No, this is not a typo, Part I.

Okay, sure, Purdue got outgained 6.63 yards per play to 4.41 YPP (a bigger disparity than Michigan’s gap over Florida). And sure, Lamar Jackson picked up 485 yards of offense. But LOOK AT THAT SCORE. Purdue played a real team, and produced a real score like a real live actual member of the Big Ten Conference. And if it weren’t for a bit of refereeing… shall we say, “creative interpretation,” they might have actually done the damn thing.

That said, we should probably hit the brakes juuuuuuust a touch. The actual numbers were pretty brutal. Purdue’s success was partially the result of Louisville’s 16 penalties, including an impressive 9 false starts. They still threw 3 picks. And they still have a massive talent gap. Purdue can get excited about Jeff Brohm, but maybe in a “hey maybe we’ll be competent in 2018 and competitive in 2019” kind of way.

This team is as frightening as: A #14 seed who knocks off a #3 seed. Yes, they can probably play your chosen sport. But no, they probably aren’t *that* good at it. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: What if Purdue is for real? Okay yeah I know but WHAT IF?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Purdue’s QBs were both error-prone when pressured, and Michigan seems to have a defense that might be able to apply some pressure.

When they play Michigan: Nah.

Next game: vs. Ohio, 8:00 p.m. Friday because reasons, FS1

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Bowling Green, 35-10

Recap: Let’s all hop into the Wayback Machine of Dong Pain, and take a trip back to the fall of 2010. The Deepwater Horizon oil rig had recently exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. The economy was in the crapper. Katy Perry was a thing. Michigan football was trying to put some recent offseasons turmoil behind them when they opened their seasons (and the newly-renovated stadium) against UConn. At the end of the day, the opponent was vanquished by several scores, and the defense only surrendered ten points, but there were already signs that the defense was gonna be a problem.

Jump forward seven years, and while Michigan football is humming along nicely, and two of those three world catastrophes have been cleaned up (the third stubbornly remains an issue), a very similar scene is taking place in East Lansing as occurred in Ann Arbor. Michigan State held Bowling Green to ten points but…

 

…yeah. There are some red flags here. This was never really a game, but if Bowling Green's quarterback had been even decent, this could have been interesting.

This team is as frightening as: 2016 Michigan State. Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State’s pass rush is statistically improved. They recorded one sack, which puts them ahead of last year’s per-game sack pace, and exceeds their individual game totals for five of last year’s games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bowling Green was the #112 passing offense in the country last year in yards per attempt at 4.7 yards per pop. They were behind Rutgers and Purdue, and did so against MAC competition instead of the Big Ten. And yet.

When they play Michigan: Something something Mike Hart little brother punt fumble.

Next game: vs. Western Michigan, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Indiana (0-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 49-21

Recap: This one went from actual victory to moral victory to Hoosier-whoopin’ faster than I’ve seen in a while. Which is a shame, because Indiana didn’t just hang with Ohio State. They clearly outplayed the Buckeyes in the first half. Indiana’s secondary hounded Ohio State’s receivers, and Ohio State had no answer for Indiana’s quick all-fades passing attack. Simmie Cobbs and Donavan Hale plucked perfectly-placed ball after perfectly-placed ball, and from the drop, Mike DeBord seemed to have the upper hand on Greg Schiano.

Then, the last 22 minutes happened. Ohio State turned a 21-20 deficit into a 49-21 rout.

There were a bunch of reasons, but there were two primary ones. The first was that Indiana could not establish any inkling of a run game; they rushed for 17 yards total, and only 2.3 yards per carry once you factor out sacks. The second reason was that once Ohio State started rotating safeties over the top of the outside receivers to back off the threat of the repeated fade and stop routes, Indiana never really had a counter.

This team is as frightening as: A band you like, but with a new lead singer. They still play a lot of the same songs. But something is different. Sure, there’s a chance they can keep the act up, and even produce some quality new music. But Mr. DeBord, I know Sammy Hagar, and you sir are no Sammy Hagar.

Wait… Is he…? Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Simmie Cobbs.

OMG SIMMIE COBBS pic.twitter.com/9qCkURVXr6

— Dr. Saturday (@YahooDrSaturday) September 1, 2017

He’s back to 100%, and as you can see, he’s a serious matchup problem on the outside.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Unfortunately, Indiana decided to put their best receiver from 2016, Nick Westbrook, out on kick coverage duties. He promptly tore his ACL covering the opening kickoff of the season.

When they play Michigan: Oh you can already tell that this is going to be a really stupid game somehow. You can feel it.

Next game: at Virginia, 3:30 p.m., ACC Netw…

/checks website again

/checks different website

Okay, I guess the ACC Network is a real thing now?

Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Akron, 52-0

Recap: We take a brief pause in our usual skepticism and derision for some important breaking news:

Saquon Barkley.

226 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 touches.

That is all.

This team is as frightening as: Smallpox. Everyone says it’s scary, but we haven’t had any problems with it for a few years, so we probably aren’t taking the threat as seriously as we should. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: The little dude what did all the fancy stuff in that there video.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bill Connelly projected Akron to have the #122 defense in the country this year, so this was always going to be a baby sealing.

When they play Michigan: One shiny nickel says that Gameday is in Happy Valley. They’d be competing with Tennessee/Bama, Oklahoma/KSU, USC/Notre Dame, and Louisville/FSU, but none of those are really on track to be a Top-5 matchup.

Next game: vs. Pitt, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Rutgers (0-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Washington, 30-14

Recap: No, this is not a typo, Part II

Rutgers led this game for much of the first half, and kept it competitive through much of the 3rd quarter before Washington pulled away. Most people (myself included) will chalk this up to Washington sleepwalking a bit after a cross-country trip to an uninspiring opponent, but regardless, even being able to hang with a sleepwalking top-10 team for more than the coin toss is a huge step forward for Rutgers.

Kyle Bolin didn’t throw a pass over 17 inches downfield*, but managed a respectable-for-2016-Rutgers 5.2 yards per attempt. More excitingly, they seem to have found a talented running back to replace Ray Rice. Gus Edwards, a transfer from Miami (YTM) only averaged 3.3 yards per carry, but looked good doing so.

*citation needed

This team is as frightening as: Knowing that at some point in the next few years, at least a handful of the molecules in your drinking water were in a hot tub in the Rutgers student section. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: DON’T PUNT THE BALL TO JANARION GRANT.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This game was like when a movie that you were expecting to be terrible puts out a trailer that is pretty decent. You’re like, “I mean, it’s got Jeremy Renner, and there are at least two cool explosions and a car chase… so maybe.” But you know to keep your expectations in check. Because your first instinct is still probably right.

When they play Michigan: No you can’t bring your hot tubs. Why would you think you could bring your hot tubs.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Buffalo, 17-7

Recap: Purdue got a big psychological lift in their first game with their new head coach. Minnesota did not.

S&P+ projected Buffalo as the #128 team in the country out of 130 FBS teams. Yet this was a one-score game until two minutes left in the 4th quarter. Growing pains, etc… but this has the look of a tough rebuilding year for Minnesota.

This team is as frightening as: Sorry PJ. For this year you may row the boat, but you also rock the boat.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota did have one offensive bright spot: receiver Tyler Johnson looked the part of the big-play target on the outside, catching 6 balls for 141 yards including a 61-yard touchdown. PJ Fleck’s offensive approach is largely based on getting the ball to playmakers in space, so if Johnson can be a 10,000 Lakes Corey Davis, that would be huge.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: While the defense was pretty solid overall, and especially up front, Minnesota did allow Buffalo’s Anthony Johnson to catch 11 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown.

When they play Michigan: I know it’s a couple of months away, but there is no way that the offense I saw on Thursday scores enough points against the defense I saw on Saturday to make this a game.

Next game: at Oregon St., 10:00 p.m., FS1

Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Texas, 51-41

Recap: No, this is not a typo, Part III.

“The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders.”

Plutarch, writing in the nearly two millennia ago, was apparently a Maryland fan before his time. The Terps put up 51 points and 482 yards at 8.31 (!!!) yards per play over a ranked* Texas team. Maryland had a BUNCH of explosive plays; they had 5 plays from scrimmage of 40+ yards, as well as a 71 yard blocked field goal return.

So the Victory part was great. The Pyrrhic part, though, was the toll Maryland took in the process. Starting quarterback Piggy Pigrome – who was averaging 14.6 yards per pass and 5.8 yards per rush – tore his ACL at the end of the third quarter. They also lost Jesse Aniebonam, a guy who could probably be an all-conference defensive end in a year that was less incomprehensively stacked with defensive ends, to a fractured ankle.

Still, a quality start for year two of DJ Durkin. In fact, I’ll go one prediction farther; while King Pyrrhus’s of Epirus’s assault on Sparta was unsuccessful, I’d put Maryland’s odds as better than average against the current incarnation. After all, the 3rd Century BC versions of the Spartans actually knew how to play defense.

*Note to Brian and Seth: just a thought, but maybe the new site should have a special font that plays an ‘uncontrollable snorting laughter’ sound effect when the reader reads those words.

This team is as frightening as: Seaweed touching your toes in a lake. You know it’s not actually dangerous or really all that scary, but your unavoidable instant reaction is HOLY CRAP I WAS NOT EXPECTING THAT AND I AM NOW UNCOMFORTABLE. Fear Level = 5? Is that too high?

Michigan should worry about: In addition to the explosive offense, the defense wasn’t as bad as the score would indicate; Texas only scored two offensive touchdowns, and their per-play numbers weren’t terrible.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland’s special teams were kiiiiiind of a mess. They gave up a blocked field goal for a touchdown and a 91 yard punt return for a touchdown.

When they play Michigan: Two possibilities; either this sets up as a classic trap game, or (if the current pace of injuries continues) Durkin will have to go full Gene Hackman from Hoosiers and send out like 7 guys because that’s all he has left.

Next game: vs. Towson, noon, BTN

Wisconsin (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Utah State, 59-10

Recap: Wisconsin trailed 10-0, and didn’t score their first points until there was about a minute left in the first half. They looked pretty bad in the process. Then some stuff happened. And Wisconsin won by a bazillion.

Hard to draw too many conclusions here. So we won’t.

This team is as frightening as: Ehhh, I dunno. They looked really bad early. The line was discombobulated, the receivers were off, Hornibrook looked pedestrian at best… they were just uninspiring. Then they ground Utah State into a fine powder, mixed the powder with water to form a paste, used the paste to make a papier-mâché piñata, and ran fullback dives into the piñata until touchdowns exploded out of it. So, we’ll stick with the status quo from the preseason. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Wisconsin in November is… /checks Farmer’s Almanac … yes, Wisconsin in November is cold.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Alex Hornibrook’s arm has not gotten any stronger.

When they play Michigan: Pack it up, pack it in, let me begin; I came to win, battle me, that’s a sin.

Next game: vs. Florida Atlantic, noon, BTN

Ohio State (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana 49-21

Recap:

The bar for Ohio State is pretty high, to the point where winning by four touchdowns (and covering the spread by a healthy margin) on the road at night in a conference game when Gameday is on site can solicit a “meh.”

But… meh.

The parts of the Ohio State team we knew about were pretty much as expected. The linebackers were good. The offensive line was good but not overwhelming. The receivers, hashtag zone6, couldn’t get any separation. JT Barrett is what he is. And the defensive line was a remorseless all-consuming pantheon of pain and death and more pain even after the death.

As for the parts we weren’t sure about: JK Dobbins, who got a start for an injured Mike Weber, was better than could have reasonably been expected, and the secondary was probably worse than would have been expected. Nothing to really move the needle much. We’ll know a lot more after this weekend.

This team is as frightening as: I will do you a favor and not link to the trailer for the new “IT” remake, or post any pictures of a clown in a sewer. Yet. But still, I’mma go with “clown in a sewer.” Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: They might decide to put some of those defensive ends at safety.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I’ve seen no indication that those defensive ends can throw a football better than JT Barrett. More importantly, I’ve also seen no evidence that JT Barrett can throw a football better than JT Barrett.

When they play Michigan: Hey look he’s got a red balloon.

Next game: vs. Oklahoma, 7:30 p.m., ABC