Michigan 72, Penn State 63 Comment Count

Alex Cook

Penn State really needed a big win to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, and Michigan’s trip to Happy Valley on Senior Day gave them a great opportunity to ease their way up the bubble. Michigan played excellent defense in the first half and built a sizable lead, which was quickly erased by Tony Carr and Lamar Stevens early in the second half. The Wolverines responded, mixed in some different 2-3 defenses that threw Penn State off balance, and a couple Moe Wagner threes helped Michigan pull out to a lead that they wouldn’t relinquish. Solid free throw shooting down the stretch (9-10 on intentional fouls) staved off a Nittany Lion comeback and Michigan escaped with one of its best wins of the season against a desperate team that was on a hot streak.

Despite a few indifferent late-game possessions. Carr and Stevens - arguably the best guard in the conference and a very capable sidekick - scored 40 points combined, but it took them 39 shot equivalents to do it. Carr was held in check in the first half with solid defense from Zavier Simpson and timely double-teams; he knocked down a few threes of varying difficulty and got to the rim in the second half - finishing with a 21 point, 5 rebound, 6 assist line. Stevens was often guarded by Duncan Robinson when Michigan played man-to-man, and Robinson made him work for many of his points; the Wolverines initially allowed him too much room in the middle of the zone, but adjusted to harass him into a couple key mistakes.

No other Nittany Lion scored in double figures. Their best center, Mike Watkins, was injured while contesting a Charles Matthews layup, and only played five minutes on the night. That loss came early in the game, as both teams struggled to score: Michigan had five quick turnovers, and Penn State futilely tried post-ups on most possessions. Jon Teske had some impactful minutes on the defensive end in the first half after Wagner picked up his first foul. Even after Wagner returned, Penn State labored for good looks until a late burst by Stevens.

The Wolverines were able to build their initial lead with scoring off the bench from Robinson and Jordan Poole, who combined for 20 of Michigan’s 34 first half points. Robinson hit his first three-point attempt after screening and popping out of Michigan’s side curl action, had a nice cut for a layup, got Stevens to bite on a pump fake and knocked down a two-point jumper, blew by him for a layup, and hit another three. Poole made a corner three off an extra pass, had an absolutely ridiculous dunk over Julian Moore for an and-one, and got an easy transition layup. The freshman had a few rough moments, but his scoring was an upgrade over Matthews, who had his worst game of the season.

Michigan led by 13 at one point, but Penn State was much better out of the halftime break, scoring on their first four possessions: Carr got Simpson on his hip and took him to the rim for two, Michigan helped too far off Stevens for a three and gave Carr another one on a bad scramble situation, and Josh Reaves blew by Poole for a layup. Penn State took the lead before the first TV timeout, and it looked as if Michigan might get run out of the gym. John Beilein eventually turned to the zone, which was effective. The initial zone was spread too thin, but Michigan adjusted to sink into the high post when the ball was entered into Stevens.

Wagner made some big plays after that. He had made a few early threes (including one on the first possession of the game), but too often would pump-fake and drive into traffic for worse looks in the paint. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman made a play late in the shot clock to find Wagner for a corner three to break a Penn State run; shortly after, Matthews found him on the wing for another on a pick-and-pop - and instead of driving it on Stevens (a stretch-four who was guarding Wagner in a small-ball lineup), he hit a three over him. Penn State and Michigan traded buckets and stops for a while, until Wagner hit a tough layup on a drive against Moore and Poole nailed another corner three to trigger a Penn State timeout and give Michigan a 54-48 lead with seven minutes left.

Out of the timeout, Nazeer Bostick threw it right to Abdur-Rahkman in the zone, and Simpson scored an absurd swooping sky-hook over Carr on the next possession. Michigan had a few empty possessions from there, but stops on the defensive end - including Wagner drawing a charge on Stevens, Robinson emphatically rejecting a Stevens dunk, and Carr missing a couple threes - helped Michigan hold onto the lead. The Wolverines were up four with under three minutes left when Abdur-Rahkman hit a very tough layup over Reaves (maybe the best perimeter defender in the Big Ten, who helped force Abdur-Rahkman into an uncharacteristic four turnovers), Bostick missed a wild layup attempt, and Robinson hit a transition three for the dagger.

It was mostly a free throw exhibition from there: Robinson made both, Wagner made both, Simpson made one of two, Livers made both, and Poole made both. A few uncontested Penn State buckets were interspersed in there, but a comeback wasn’t possible. Michigan overcame an unusually high level of turnovers and a negative shot differential, mostly because they made 10-21 three-pointers (all but one came from Wagner, Robinson, and Poole). Robinson had a great game - in addition to his team-high 19 points, he had three blocks and a steal. Wagner put up 18 and 8 rebounds. Poole chipped in with 13 and played 26 minutes to Matthews’s 17. Simpson and Abdur-Rahkman each had their struggles against a tough defense, but each scored nine points.

Michigan’s record improved to 23-7 (12-5 in the Big Ten) and is moving its way up the seed line. They still have a chance at a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament if they beat Maryland and Penn State beats Nebraska this weekend. Even though Matthews was held scoreless, the Wolverines dribbled out the clock on the road against what was a Kenpom Top 25 team. Robinson and Abdur-Rahkman are rounding into form as their careers wind to an end, Poole has played two really good games in a row, and Moe Wagner is consistently punishing teams with the mismatches he creates. This win against Penn State was very impressive, and Michigan looks like they’ll be a very tough out in March.

Box Score after the JUMP

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Comments

TrueBlue2003

February 22nd, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

are two very different things.  If a basketball player misses a shot, or a QB misses a throw or an OL just gets beat, the only thing a coach should be concerned about is whether it was a good shot or the right read or the right blitz pick up. 

Making the shot or the throw or the block is simply a physical action.  Telling the player to make shots doesn't help him.  He wants to make the shot.  He's trying to make the shot.  I was initially surprised to see Beilein calling out Z like that (although, he then said, you're a good free throw shooter, you can make those, so it came across as a tongue-in-cheek encouraging comment).  If you know the guy can make the shots or the throws and he does it in practice, then it's entirely a mental confidence issue in terms of making it in games and all you can do as a coach if you're going to keep asking him to make those shots or those throws is get his mental state to a place where he can.

Now if a guy is taking bad shots or making bad reads, that's when coaching comes in.  Charles, don't take the 17 footer with a hand in your  face, it's not a good shot.  We can do better than that.  Wilton, that's the wrong read because the safety is here.

Or course, if a guy is taking good shots or making the right throws, but is physically incapable of making them (hopefully, he wouldn't be in the game in the first place because that should be evident in practice) and continues to not make tham at an acceptable rate, then it's on the coaches to not put that player in that position or take away the green light on those shots or take him out of the game entirely.

Lh112

February 21st, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^

its time to have poole replace matthews and duncan replace livers as a starter. matthews has shriveled. he needs to contribute, but coming off the bench.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

February 21st, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^

Livers is much better as a starter with his defense and his limited offensive role with the starting unit. Robinson is the perfect sixth man off the bench. Now with the Poole thing, I am listening. In fact, I have been saying that in some of the other threads. The questions are, how can he hold up with major minutes and how can he defend a top scoring threat for a longer period of time? We might find out against Maryland!

ijohnb

February 22nd, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^

is the issue right here.  If Matthews was merely "OK" on the offensive end, I would say not to mess with the starting 5.  However, he is not.  He is actually turning into a major liability.  He is careless with the ball at times, he is a sporatic finisher, he cannot hit the broad side of a barn right now from deep, and while he comes down with the occassional offensive rebound, nothing good ever comes of it because he doesn't know what to do with the ball once he gets it. 

He is going to be here for another year, but we have a boatload of talent coming in that might surpass him as freshman.  It sucks for him because it looked like a promising situation when he transfered, and it still could pay some dividends if he can impact the game in more limited minutes right away, but he is simply not precise enough mentally or physically right now to be a useful part of the offense for big minutes.

I like Livers in the starting 5 with Robinson off the bench.  When Robinson comes in, our defense takes a step down.  I think the best role for Matthews right now is to compliment Robinson on the second line by bringing the defensive prowess that Robinson lacks.  It is hard to justify playing Matthews more than 12-15 minutes per game right now.

In reply to by ijohnb

TrueBlue2003

February 22nd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

sad to see what's happened to him, but it looks like he's going to be here two more years.  He has a long way to go in terms of shooting and protecting the ball before he sniffs playing professionally.

I'm really rooting for him to turn it around.  Protecting the ball is somewhat a mental thing/knowing his role.   He just can't dribble into the lane with four guys converging on him.  Needs to stick to a GR3 role of cutting to the hoop and cleaning up OREBs.  Then next year if he handle improves, go into the lane more but yeah, huge liability at this point.

ijohnb

February 22nd, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^

is not everything.  I like the kid a lot, he seems like a team guy and I am not advocating to flat out bench him, but for quite some time now DOOM happens a lot more often than not when he touches the basketball.  He has also had games where he scores a fair share of points, but still plays poorly, so looking at his stat line does not tell the entire story. 

He does have some notable value as a player right now, he is a good defender and a good rebounder, he makes quick outlet passes when he gets boards also which leads to transition opportunities.  But good things seldom happen when he has the ball in a half court set, and definitively bad things are starting to occur more and more.  It is also basically a turnover when he is fouled in the act of shooting, which negates a lot of the value he would have as a driver of the basketball.  Beilein rarely makes a change like that in game.  Matthews was having a substantial negative effect on the offensive functionality of the team.

RobM_24

February 21st, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^

Hopefully this "quadrant 1" win truly factors into seeding. It just seems like UM is always destined to be seeded worse than they should be. If we can escape the 7-10 range that most bracket experts seem to have us destined for. In my opinion, there isn't a big difference between 7-10 seeds, but there is a huge difference between a 6 and a 7-10 seed.

J.

February 21st, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^

They have nobody but themselves to blame for that. Their non-conference scheduling has been poor; they play too many RPI poison teams. Incidentally, I’m really worried that expanding the Big Ten schedule is going to have an adverse affect on scheduling also. It’s going to cost Michigan a home game, so I wonder if they’ll be less likely to schedule home-and-home opponents like UCLA and Texas. They may actually end up with fewer big-name OOC opponents, but additional games against Rutgers or Illinois.

J.

February 22nd, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

Yes, it's a terrible metric, from an era when we didn't know any better.  But until it's fixed, or the NCAA announces that it will no longer be used, it's a consideration.

It's not that hard to improve your RPI via scheduling.  All it takes is scheduling the MAC instead of the SWAC.  (Also, don't schedule Rutgers.  Wait, what...? ;)

Michigan has four games this year against RPI 250+ teams -- Detroit, Jacksonville, UC Riverside, and Alabama A&M.  Detroit is forgiveable, given the context (first college basketball game at LCA; doubleheader with MSU-Oakland).

Some RPI Wizard work ( http://www.rpiforecast.com ):

Michigan is currently 23rd in the RPI.  Drop the non-Detroit games and they'd be 17th.  Replace them with home victories against teams between #150 and #250 -- for example, BGSU, Ohio, and Akron -- and they're still 19th.  In other words, playing the MAC teams hurts your RPI a little; playing the bottom teams in college basketball hurts your RPI a lot.  And, 23rd vs 19th in the RPI is one entire seed line, if they're using the RPI for seeding.

Erik_in_Dayton

February 21st, 2018 at 11:21 PM ^

Rahk made a pretty big play in the last minute when he dived for the ball and knocked it off of Stevens after PSU slapped it away from Z. PSU’s slim chances became much slimmer when he did that. I was surprised to see Brooks in the game over Simmons for those two minutes. Teske was really solid. Michigan is a fairly tough team to score on with him in the floor. Robinson had three blocks! It’s a shame Poole doesn’t have any confidence.

Yo_Blue

February 22nd, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^

How the Hell did that officiating crew not even bother to review that call though?  At that point in the game I could see a 10 minute Zaprudering.  It appeared in every replay that it was our ball, but it was a bang-bang play with two players out of bounds.  We finally got a ref's decision to go our way at a crucial point.

TrueBlue2003

February 22nd, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^

considering his position and the number of assists he gets. His TO rate in conference play is stellar.

Yes, he got it poked away there by one of the best, if not the best perimeter defender in the league in Reaves.  It happens, but luckily, very rarely to him.

outsidethebox

February 22nd, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^

Agreed, mostly. However, it only takes one savy coach who sees that his 5 guys only have to guard 3 of the Michigan starters...and then the party is over. Robinson and Poole are not that much of a defensive liability. The coaches need to figure out how to defend well with Wagner, Livers, Robinson, Poole and MAAR on the floor for significant periods of time...I think they should play more zone anyway...should be able to go with several different looks during a single possession. 

champswest

February 21st, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^

hottest teams in the country. We have a lot of weapons and don’t have to rely on 2 orv3 certain guys to carry us. Was happy to see Brooks get a few minutes. He took it strong to the hoop and had a 3 pointer rim out. Doesn’t look like he has lost any confidence.