Fee Fi Foe Film: Maryland Offense Comment Count

Ace



38-0 at halftime, so this game was functionally over here.

West Virginia ranks tenth in defensive S&P+.

Michigan is fourth.

Only a biblical weather event could possibly save Maryla-- OH COME ON.

Anyway, Maryland got thwacked 45-6 by West Virginia last weekend, and the final score doesn't even do it justice; the Mountaineers carried a 38-0 lead into halftime. Maryland quarterback Caleb Rowe went 10/27 for 67 yards and four interceptions, was pulled for Daxx Garman—who added a pick of his own—and still was named the starter for Saturday's game. Their most dangerous offensive weapon is a 5'7" cornerback who doesn't play offense.

Michigan's defense is still picking bits of Cougar out of their teeth. This won't be pretty, hurricane-influenced weather or not.

Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

Maryland's starting left guard, Mike Minter, had season-ending surgery on his labrum last week. To replace him, the Terps slid right tackle Ryan Doyle to left guard and inserted 2014 five-star recruit Damian Prince into the lineup at RT.

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread. Maryland kept the run-pass distribution pretty even throughout, even when they were down huge.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Mostly zone stuff.

Hurry it up or grind it out? The Terps aren't a hurry-up team. Sometimes they'll try to get off a quick snap, but usually their pace is pretty easy to keep up with.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Rowe isn't much of a run threat, even though Maryland will show the occasional read option look (and almost always give to the RB). He's approximately Rudock-level athletic, maybe a little less so—able to grab some yardage here or there if a side of the field opens up but by no means somebody you need to spy. He gets a 4.

Dangerman: I was running behind on watching film when Seth made the diagram, so I defaulted to WR Levern Jacobs as the dangerman; he looked great in 2013 when the Terps had a functional passing game and he had to step in to a big role when injuries hit the receiving corps. Jacobs sat out 2014 due to an off-field issue and has returned as the #1 receiver. That hasn't translated into much production because the quarterback play has been bad; Jacobs is still a dangerous athlete who can make things happen in the open field.

I should add running back Brandon Ross to this category. He gained 130 yards on 15 carries in this game, and while some of that was certainly due to circumstance—WVU was fine letting Maryland run the ball down 28 or more—he had a nice power/speed combination, though as you'll see his best run went to waste.

Zook Factor: Well, there's this:

And this:

Also, Edsall chose to punt on 4th-and-5 from the WVU 46 with his team already down 21-0 in the first half. They got the ball back down 28-0. Stunning, I know.

HenneChart: So, yeah, this wasn't a good day for Caleb Rowe:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
WVU -- 9 (2) 1 7xx (2) 3x 3 2 3 1 40%

I can't embed videos, unfortunately, because the Big 12 version of T3 media flagged my cut-ups, but you can still see them on YouTube. Rowe's first interception was his worst, throwing a long ball directly to a corner who was bailing into a deep zone the entire play. On his second he overthrew to a safety while trying to fit the ball between zones to a receiver who wasn't looking for the ball. His third was a needlessly risky, cross-field duck in the face of pressure. 

Rowe's fourth pick wasn't charted; it came on fourth down and nobody was open, so he made the right decision to try to force one anyway and the predictable occurred.

Even when not throwing to the wrong team, Rowe wasn't very good. He had a surprising amount of trouble putting screens on the money, tended to miss high/long on his throws, and didn't show good pocket presence. Michigan's front should be able to rattle him into some ugly throws.

OVERVIEW

Maryland is a little more multiple than the spreads Michigan has seen so far this season; they use a fair amount of the pistol, usually with a fullback next to the QB, as a run-heavy formation, and they'll throw in the occasional snap under center.

Formations Run Pass PA
Gun 8 16 5
I-Form 1 -- --
Ace 3 -- 2
Pistol 7 -- 4
Heavy -- -- --

As noted, they stayed pretty balanced:

Down Run Pass PA
1st 10 3 6
2nd 5 6 4
3rd 4 7 1

Maryland tried to make life easier on Rowe by calling lots of play-action. That mostly resulted him getting pressure in his face, especially since WVU stopped keying on the run about midway through the second quarter.

The offensive line looks great in the advanced stats—sixth in adjusted line yards, fourth in adjusted sack rate—but that didn't entirely match the eye test. They generally looked good blocking for the run, getting solid push up front; they don't blow open huge holes but they hold their blocks well. The left side of the line was especially good in this regard.

Pass blocking was a different story. Prince looked like a weak link. He got manhandled by a defensive end who batted down a pass right in Rowe's face in the first quarter. Later in the quarter, he gave up a sack when he failed to identify an obvious blitzer off the edge and let him run clean around the corner. He's good as a road-grader but he looks slow on the edge and he's liable to make freshman mistakes. The rest of the line wasn't a lot better. West Virginia blitzes hit home routinely. Some of that looked to be on Rowe, who failed to check out of plays that were doomed to failure, but the line also didn't do a great job picking up everybody.

Ross and Wes Brown are a solid one-two at running back, with Brown filling the role as a third-down back. They mostly took what the line got them when running up the gut; both have the speed to get the corner on outside runs.

The receivers were tough to judge because the quarterback play was so underwhelming. Levern and Taivon Jacobs are both small, quick guys who do their best work after the catch. The other guys didn't always seem to be on the same page with Rowe and it wasn't easy to tell who was at fault.

This is an offense whose strength plays into Michigan's strength—running up the gut on the Wolverines doesn't seem at all sustainable right now—and their weakness is very exploitable by a Michigan pass defense that looks great at both generating pressure and blanketing receivers.

PLAY BREAKDOWN

Maryland had one decent offensive play, a 55-yard run by Ross. They come out in a pistol four-wide set:

The left side of the line and the slot receiver are the keys here. Even though Damian Prince totally fails to get a cut on the backside...

...those other three control their blocks. The slot receiver gets great movement on the slot corner while the left tackle begins to seal off the edge.

The left tackle turns and completes an excellent scoop block. A big crease emerges.

Ross gains the corner with help from a poor angle by one of WVU's linebackers.

With great downfield blocking from his receivers, Ross gets the sideline.

All he has to do is fend off one last man in pursuit to reach the end zone. He's caught at the two and dives for the pylon.

And, just before his knee touches, he fumbles the ball clear out the back of the end zone.

First down, West Virginia.

Comments

UMProud

October 1st, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^

Well Maryland does have some strengths and CFB is a game of emotion. I also know JH takes nothing for granted and will be preparing for a stronger fight out of the Terps.
Turtle soup 4tw

Jonadan

October 1st, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

I didn't know they'd brought in Garman - he was a starter (!) for a while for Oklahoma State, and seemed to be one of those inconsistent-but-dynamic types.  I'd have thought that made him better than Rowe almost automatically, but what do I know?  I'd expect Saturday to feature a lot of handoffs, regardless.

J.

October 1st, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^

That's the worst rule in football.  If the ball goes out at the 1, it's Maryland's ball, but if it hits the pylon, it's West Virginia's.  It makes no sense whatsoever.  Make the defense make a play -- if the ball goes out of the end zone without the defense gaining possession, return it to the offense at the spot of the fumble (or at the 1-yard line, if you insist upon allowing forward fumbles).

EGD

October 1st, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^

The defense did make a play--they stripped the ball.  If you don't want to lose possession, don't fumble.

But I do see your point about how it's inconsistent for the offense to get the ball back if it goes out of bounds before the end zone.

Surveillance Doe

October 1st, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

I always thought this rule was part of the remedy for the "Holy Roller" play, but I don't know that for sure. Either way, the risk/reward for intentionally fumbling the ball forward when you're near the goal line would be off-balance if there you could just knock the ball out of the endzone and try again whenever the defense is in a position to threaten recovery.

J.

October 2nd, 2015 at 2:04 AM ^

It's not listed as a change on the Wikipedia page:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Roller_(American_football)

Still, the remedy would be simple -- all forward fumbles recovered by the offense could be returned to the spot of the fumble, just like the NFL fourth down and late-game rule.  Then there'd be no advantage to a deliberate fumble.  A turnover near the goal line is such a huge play in the game, particularly when it results in a touchback and gives the opposition 20 yards [I]plus[/I] the ball.

/rant :-)

InterM

October 1st, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^

I noticed in the "1st Half Stats" graphic that Maryland somehow managed to rack up 151 rushing yards -- a pretty good total for one half -- but only 5 first downs.  Then I read through Ace's play breakdown and it started to make sense . . .

Rasmus

October 1st, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^

The cherry on top will be when Michigan starts kicking off to Will Likely in the second half because they can and they want to give the coverage team a live-action challenge.

It's cherry because, one, it means Michigan has just scored, and, two, I get to yell "Get him!" at my TV without really being all that concerned about whether he is, in fact, gotten.

dragonchild

October 1st, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^

An offense playing to Michigan's strengths doesn't mean much at this point.  It'd be quicker to discuss Michigan's weaknesses.  The only things I see are:

1) Peppers' man coverage is a work in progress

2) Bolden still has the occasional tendency to catch blocks

3) Athletically, Wilson and Ojemudia are FBS average for their positions

So outside runs attacking the linebackers with combo/TE blocks and the slot receiver running vertical (with some play action) to draw away the secondary might work if the ball carrier can get to whatever edge Peppers isn't before someone on the D-line slashes through for a murderdeathkill. . . assuming your WRs can block.  Even if everything goes right it's far from a gimme; it's not like any of the guys listed above are liabilities.

Beyond that, it remains to be seen if a particular position can be overwhelmed by a bona fide playmaker, but if you have average talent you're not going to scheme your way through this defense.  Maryland's in for a very tough day.

GotBlueOnMyMind

October 1st, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^

Something I just thought about is that some of the worries about the offense seem so exaggerated now that we know how good the defense really is. Yes, the offense still isn't great, but the defense completely dominating is apparently just what they do this year.




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dragonchild

October 1st, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^

I don't know that people are exaggerating so much as not quite ready to let go of the what-ifs.

To your point, unless the Gods of Weird Football take over (a.k.a. Northwestern's annual blood sacrifice to Loki), this team cannot be beaten with average talent, anyhow.  Teams have targeted perceived weaknesses and nothing's been easy.  It's a testament to how well they're coached.

That said, maybe it's the trauma talking but I can still envision this team getting beaten soundly, though that image is getting iffier by the day.  (This is a Good Thing -- it was absurdly easy to do this the past 7 years.)  So far, the only player I'm confident can go toe-to-toe with any playmaker in the FBS is Jourdan Lewis.  The D-line is playing lights-out but they haven't played any truly mean O-lines.  The offense is improving by the week but hasn't shown enough consistency at any position to make me feel they can't be stopped.  If we face a tough defense with a solid O-line and an NFL first-rounder to make plays. . . thing is, that's almost by definition an elite FBS team.  That's a pretty darn good position to be in.

alum96

October 1st, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^

Brandon Ross is not very much a dangerman.  Yes he had a good game vs WVA.  It happens.

Much like Derrick green when you match him up vs App State or James Madison or Rutgers he goes off for 8+.   When playing real opponents - not so much.

He averaged 1.3 vs Bowling Green, and 3.8 vs USF the 2 prior weeks.  PSU, Wisconsin completely shut him down and they didnt even try to run him vs MSU or UM last year.  I mean on a good day when not playing Indiana or FCS teams he might get you 4 an attempt.  Don't ask about his bad days.

 

2014 Game Log

Rushing

 

DATE

OPP

RESULT  

ATT

YDS

AVG

LNG

TD

         

8/30

James Madison

W 52-7

16

86

5.4

12

1

         

9/6

@South Florida

W 24-17

6

25

4.2

8

0

         

9/13

West Virginia

L 40-37

4

0

0.0

6

0

         

9/20

@Syracuse

W 34-20

3

6

2.0

4

0

         

9/27

@Indiana

W 37-15

6

61

10.2

22

0

         

10/4

Ohio State

L 52-24

8

38

4.8

23

1

         

10/18

Iowa

W 38-31

9

35

3.9

16

0

         

10/25

@Wisconsin

L 52-7

7

6

0.9

8

0

         

11/1

@Penn State

W 20-19

5

-1

-0.2

8

0

         

11/15

Michigan State

L 37-15

1

5

5.0

5

0

         

11/22

@Michigan

W 23-16

3

16

5.3

10

0

         

11/29

Rutgers

L 41-38

10

108

10.8

44

2

         

FOSTER FARMS BOWL

12/30

@Stanford

L 45-21

8

32

4.0

9

0

 

MGlobules

October 1st, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^

that Michigan has come out full of will and desire and just been stunned by MSU's freaking intensity (nay, hatred) again and again the last few years. It will take something more than great players and good intentions to beat them this year. 

J.

October 2nd, 2015 at 2:12 AM ^

If Michigan is lacking in intensity against Michigan State, I will be stunned.  You know how Sparty loves to chirp.  I'm sure Coach Harbaugh has heard from NFL Sparty over and over again the last few years.  I'm equally sure that he will pass his displeasure allong to the team.  Any player that somehow isn't fired up for MSU isn't likely to be traveling to Minnesota.

Now, that's no guarantee of success, but I don't fear this Michigan team, with this coaching staff, overlooking Staee's emotional state when they play in Ann Arbor.  If anything, I expect plays specifically designed to exploit it -- misdirection, counters to plays they've already put on tape, etc.  MSU may win, but they'll have to earn it.

BlueinLansing

October 1st, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

game was available on demand on my cable.  I watched the first quarter and then just couldn't take anymore bad football.

Maryland had 5 penalties in the first 7 minutes of this game, I think all on offense.  The Terps just didn't bring it to Morgantown and were overwhelmed often.  I echo Ace's comments on the oline, relatively solid at times but really piss poor on other plays.  One play the RG gets trucked by a blitzing LB.   Comically trucked.  Rowe's throws....well he has a strong arm but he and his WR were never on the same page.  They might pop a run every now and then and I think they'll hit a long pass but envisioning Maryland being able to march the ball down the field is really hard to see.

 

Defensively WVU ran right up the gut on them, sometimes happily with a FB who did some trucking of Terps of his own.  If Michigan blocks well this could be a long, long day for Maryland.  DB's look undersized but capable.  The whole vibe I got from watching this is that Maryland is a physically weak football team.  I expect they'll put 9 guys in the box all day and make Michigan throw.

 

I don't like to get too caught up in big wins and stuff but I'm leaning to Michigan absolutely killing these guys.