will hart

Previously: Last year. The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety.

Depth Chart

When Jim Harbaugh arrived in 2015 he hired three new assistants who raised some eyebrows. One was his son Jay, whose non-genetic credentials were three years as an Oregon State GA, and three as an offensive quality coach for his Uncle John's Baltimore Ravens. The second was Chris Partridge, the high school coach who was expected to go back in a year to collect #1 national recruit Rashan Gary. Not waiting to see if Partridge had any coaching value beyond his connection to 5-stars, the NCAA passed a "Partridge" rule to ban programs from hiring high school coaches whose players they recruit.

The third was John Baxter, a special teams savant responsible for USC's consistently excellent third phase. Michigan special teams shot up in Baxter's first season in Ann Arbor, from 74th the year prior to 11th in Fremeau's special teams efficiency index (FEI). Baxter didn't stick around for another, but left the cheat codes behind for understudy Partridge. FEI rankings since: 3rd, 28th, 12th, 2nd*. Along the way Partridge's special teams forced a kickoffs rule change by moonballing it to the 1 yard line, broke spread punting, broke Alabama's will to cover kickoffs, and broke the FG TARGET LINE stripe for half of a broadcast:

Just gotta get over the 40 guys.

Partridge, it turned out, was indeed more valuable than his connection to immediate blue chips, and took an SEC defensive coordinator job this offseason. The briefcase with the codes now passes to his assistant these last four years, Jay Harbaugh, who's also spent the intervening years proving himself more than worthy of his nepotistic opportunity.

With it comes the leg responsible for the ridiculous line above, the reason Alabama was pooching it up to the 30, a pair of senior specialists and their experienced backups, and the first wave of Josh Gattis's toys to play with. It'll probably be fine, plus or minus the vagaries of the most variable acts in football.

* [Those numbers are a little goofy because they include opponent field goal efficiency, which isn't really something you control. In 2018 they were 127th (second to last) in opponent field goal efficiency and last year they were 6th. #CollegeKickers happens]

[After the JUMP: Giles Jackson is not down]

11/23/2019 – Michigan 39, Indiana 14 – 9-2, 6-2 Big Ten

Indiana waltzing down the field for an opening-drive touchdown was an ominous sign that the trademark Indiana Stupid Game was about to transpire. That feeling was reinforced when Indiana scored again in short order. They kept throwing wide receiver screens to their tight end. Some goofy pass interference calls and Michigan's punter kicking a 24-yarder that was somehow not a shank buttressed the structure further.

By the time Giles Jackson, hearing no whistle after having literally every portion of his body hit the ground, got up to "score" the world's most emphatically overturned touchdown it was a lock. Michigan would be embroiled in another one of those games, the ones which Indiana should win 37% of the time and wins 0% of the time. A traditionally stupid Michigan-Indiana game. Michigan would find itself embroiled in a stupefying conflict until their center went the wrong way in overtime and Michigan scored anyway or Jeremy Gallon racked up receiving yard #369, and then they'd win. I spent much of the first quarter thinking about the one where Indiana went on 15-play touchdown drives, whereupon Denard Robinson would score in two plays and the cycle would repeat. I braced for the kind of win that makes you want to shower afterwards.

This didn't happen. What happened is Indiana stopped doing anything and Michigan scored over and over again. After Indiana's second touchdown the Hoosiers gained 49 yards on their next six drives; by the time they did anything of note Michigan had put up 32 unanswered.

This has been a rarity over the past decade. Since 2009 the only other Michigan-Indiana game that hasn't been in serious doubt in the fourth quarter was the 2014 edition. That was 34-10 because the Hoosiers had to start Zander Diamont (career YPA: 4.6) at QB. Every other IU game over the last decade has been somewhere between pretty uncomfortable and having your nose hairs plucked out one by one by an old man regaling you with tales of his various lesions.

This was the best of any of these Indiana teams, the one Michigan stuffed in a steamer trunk and mailed to Peru.

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And so here we are. A lot of people are coming out of the woodwork now to say they always believed. This is a lie unless the person in question has also been scammed out of money by a robocall. If you have lost money because a recorded message says They Have Been Trying To Reach You, I believe you. I believe you if you are Raj:

you in October: will Shea Patterson ever complete a pass

me in October: check out this Monte Carlo simulation I programmed showing Michigan having a 0.05% to make the playoff pic.twitter.com/mqdWfIFzXD

— playoff raj (@internetraj) November 25, 2019

Otherwise, no.

Six games ago Michigan was coming off:

• a six-game stretch dating back to last year's Indiana game where they failed to cover the spread by at least 17 points, including horrible blowouts against OSU, Florida, and Wisconsin and a three-point OT win over Army
• Rutger
• a 10-3 win over Iowa in which Michigan gained 267 yards

Michigan's offense sat in the 70s in SP+ a year after finishing 25th and returning pretty much everyone. Jim Harbaugh said something about how his offense was on the verge of clicking that everyone on the internet and off scoffed at. I deleted a sassy quote tweet instead of sending it, not because I disagreed with everyone else but because it was more trouble than it's worth.

Even a couple games later Michigan was coming off a blowout of Illinois that featured an Illini run from 28-0 down to 28-25 and a Penn State game in which Michigan's many, many errors outran a down-to-down pounding. This was progress. It was easy to see but hard to feel. Those games appear vastly different when they're at the tail end of the eight games mentioned above than when they are the start of the final six games of this season.

But it turned out Harbaugh was right: Michigan was close to clicking on offense. Since he said that Michigan's been held under 38 points once, by Penn State. That game featured one Michigan drive end on a blatant uncalled PI, a second go in the tank after Nico Collins had a 45-yard catch wiped out by a horrible OPI, and a drop in the endzone that would have tied it. That was a 417 yard performance that should have been closer to 500.

Every other game has been a hamblasting, culminating in a game where Shea Patterson was undeniably elite. The offense has climbed all the way to 26th in SP+, with legions of Michigan fans badgering Bill Connelly to run the numbers after Iowa to see where this version of Michigan lands.

The looming cliff this weekend looks like it has handholds for the first time. Not many, and perilously spaced. But Ohio State is no longer a blank, unscalable wall of steel.

[After THE JUMP: thrown it to Nico]

8/31/2019 – Michigan 40, Middle Tennessee 21 – 1-0

Well, folks, it's week one.

oof pic.twitter.com/pkMetpJBXg

— Ace Anbender (@AceAnbender) September 1, 2019

Michigan fumbled on the first snap, muffed a punt, fell for the same clapping trick on four separate offsides plays, dropped a sure pick six, dropped passes, and failed to punch it in from the one against a team of ornery koalas. They were also outgaining a decent CUSA team about 450-200 with six minutes to go. (Afterwards there were Backup Events.)

Across the country other teams were experiencing week one in the same fashion, even good ones. Alabama got through a quarter against Duke without scoring. Ohio State jumped out to an early lead and then farted around for two quarters, causing the bits of their Twitter I follow to crab. Clemson… nevermind Clemson. Miami-Florida, that whole vibe, though? That's week one.

It's important to distinguish what's likely to keep happening and goofy week one stuff that will recur in about one game when Michigan plays two standard deviations below their ability. Michigan State rushing for under three yards a carry against last year's #96 SP+ defense? Likely to keep happening. Lavert Hill forgetting what hands are for? Not likely to keep happening, and also largely avoidable anyway.

week one ish [Fuller]

Bad things on defense were limited to injury issues forcing a fullback onto the field and facilitating a missed tackle on a weird TD, plus backup things late. If anything the prognosis there is better coming out of the game because Ambry Thomas is fully functional and Vincent Gray played well, for the most part. Dwumfour's injury is temporary; Jeter's probably back next week.

Offensive issues mostly fall into the unlikely to recur category as well. Michigan dorfed a bunch of things and were primarily stopped because of, and only because of, those dorfs. Concerns about Patterson's third quarter are warranted. He took a number of sacks where he held the ball too long; he had a period of inaccuracy shortly before McCaffrey came in. Maybe that's something you can chalk up to injury. Maybe that's Patterson not getting to where Michigan wants him to be.

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When not dorfing, though, there were some things. Nico Collins's touchdown felt like it could be the beginning of something with Randy Moss outlines. Who is stopping this?

As Harbaugh likes to say, nooooobody. Michigan threw 25 times in the first half, which was one off Patterson's game average from a year ago, and threw on 11 of 20 first down opportunities. I felt a small twinge of irritation when I checked the box score and Charbonnet only had 8 carries, and then I remembered what that implied.

And yet, the state of the fanbase is already in a pre-wroth state. Dylan McCaffrey got a sizeable ovation when he entered for real in the third quarter; Patterson actually fielded a smattering of boos after an admittedly bad series where he had errors on three straight plays. It is possible our eyes don't quite work right after so many beatings. PFF's All Big Ten QB this week: Shea Patterson. Because he had a bunch of bombs in addition to the above that were on point, only half of them actually caught.

Michigan has an above average number of kinks to work out for a veteran team because of a shift in offensive system. Those will probably keep popping up here and there for much of the season. But it's about ceiling, and Michigan's is about as high as Nico Collins's vertical leap.

[After THE JUMP: a constellation of men all in rotation about each other]