pete nance

Good grief. 

The basketball game that unfolded on Wednesday night at Crisler Center was a deeply unpleasant viewing experience, even if the Michigan Wolverines were able to notch their third consecutive victory, 72-70, over the Northwestern Wildcats. The win is crucial for keeping Michigan's tournament hopes alive, but very little else will be remembered fondly by the Michigan faithful. Though the home team didn't play particularly well, most of the memory of this one will hinge on it being a foul-fest. There were 46 fouls called between the two teams, forcing both squads into rolling with unfamiliar lineups in a choppy game that lacked any flow due to the fact there was a whistle less than every sixty seconds. 

Shooting fouls, blocking fouls, charges, moving screens, anything and everything in the rule book was getting called tonight and whistles were blown so much you'd have mistaken it for a practice, not a regulation conference game. A deeply strange game that was upsetting to watch, not just when it seemed that Michigan was on the ropes, but even during the stretches when the home team was winning. Nevertheless, more stellar play from Caleb Houstan and a surprise late cameo from Jaron Faulds helped get it done. In a season where Michigan needs all the help they can get to make it into March Madness, a win is a win. And a win it was. 

The first half was a pretty tight back-and-forth affair. Neither team led by more than five at any juncture in the first twenty minutes and all that felt notable at the time was the crazy number of whistles being called, though we came to learn in the second half that that's how the entire game would be. Houstan led Michigan with 12 in the first half, getting to the line for eight free throw attempts, while no other player had more than six points, and they closed the half with Jace Howard at center due to foul trouble affecting Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate. 

DeVante' Jones was a positive steadying force [Fuller]

The second half saw Michigan start hot, with a 12-2 run within the first three minutes of the frame putting the Wolverines up 11. That spurt was catapulted by nine points from Eli Brooks, who was quiet in the first half and who Michigan absolutely needs more from down the stretch of the season. Northwestern quickly called a timeout and for a brief moment, it seemed as if the Wolverines were asserting their control of the contest.

Unfortunately, after a DeVante' Jones jumper put Michigan up 10 with 15:08 to play, the Maize & Blue would notch just five points in the next ten minutes of game play. Over that span, the Wildcats added 22 of their own and flipped a 10 point deficit to a 7 point lead. After Robbie Beran made it 62-55 Northwestern with 5:09 to play, Juwan Howard called timeout. A loss in this game would have very possibly bumped Michigan back off the bubble, and so it was then that the team needed to rise to the occasion. They dug deep and did. 

Over three straight offensive possessions, Diabate made a pair of free throws, then DeVante' Jones nailed a massive three from the corner, and Diabate slammed home a dunk. With two stops sandwiched in between, it was tied just like that. Michigan forced another miss from Ryan Greer and had the ball with a chance to take the lead when yet another sloppy turnover gave it right back to NU. 15 seconds later, Hunter Dickinson was called for what appeared to be a rather marginal foul while guarding the post and that was it for his night. Ryan Young hit both free throws (Northwestern was in the double bonus by now) and the Wildcats were back up two. 

Faulds! [Fuller]

Without their best player on the floor, Michigan needed an answer, and Terrance Williams II delivered one, knocking down a huge three pointer to push Michigan back up one, 65-64, with 2:08 left. But just seconds after that, foul trouble struck again, as Moussa Diabate was whistled for his fifth on a shooting foul. This forced seldom-used backup center Jaron Faulds into the lineup and after Pete Nance went 1/2 at the line, it was tied at 65-65. Faulds made his impact quickly known: he dished out a sweet assist to Caleb Houstan in the corner, who swished a trey, and then he helped force a stop at the other end. DeVante' Jones drew a foul on the ensuing offensive possession, made both free throws, and Michigan led 70-65 with under a minute left.

It seemed at this moment that Michigan might be putting the game away, but the 'Cats had an answer of their own. Guard Boo Buie knocked down a triple to cut it to a two point game. Jones drove to the lane on Michigan's next possession and drew a foul, hitting both free throws again, making it 72-68 with 27 seconds left. 

The final 27 seconds were wild. The sequence began with Northwestern sending big man Ryan Young to the stripe with the score at that margin. Young made the first but the second popped out. Nance tipped it back, and Buie recovered it and called timeout. With Northwestern now down three, Michigan opted for the intentional foul to nullify any chance of a game-tying bucket. Nance went to the line and missed both, and Faulds drew a whistle during the scrum for the loose ball. At this point, with the score 72-69 and eight seconds left, all Faulds needed to do was make one to put the game on ice. He missed them both. 

Nance rebounded, passed it to Buie, who then was intentionally fouled just past half court by Williams. He made the first, missed the second, and again Northwestern got a second chance. Nance snagged the offensive rebound, passed to Roper, who pulled up from three for a chance to win at the horn. The shot was off target, and Michigan had survived. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: A couple thoughts and the box score]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan's coming off its best win of the year, an 18-point dusting of Indiana at Assembly Hall. Northwestern rolls into town next, and if you're thinking "layup" that's maybe a little harsh but not far off. Northwestern's only top-100 wins this year are against Maryland and, hilariously, at the Breslin Center in the king—nay, emperor—of all ball don't lie games. If you missed it:

Thank you for your service, Wildcats.

When not doing that they've lost. But sort of like Michigan, the record and the underlying numbers disagree a bit. Northwestern has lost two OT games and four more that were five or six point margins. The only blowout they've suffered is their most recent game, which was against Purdue at Mackey—the hardest game in the Big Ten by some distance this year.

This is still the third-easiest game of the year and Michigan really needs it.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Jones's TO rate isn't quite under 20 percent, which was our cutoff for dropping the banana peel, but he's at 12 in six Big Ten games so we've upgraded him to a gritstein.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

The Chris Collins Index is how many images in the first three rows of your GIS are of you on all fours barking like a dog. Chris Collins's Chris Collins Index is 14%. All other D-1 coaches are at 0%.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

The scores from last week (home team listed second):

• Maryland 63, Michigan 87
• Purdue 67, OSU 65
• PSU 65, Illinois 79
• Northwestern 52, Wisconsin 68
• Indiana 81, Iowa 69
• Rutgers 67, PSU 75
• Michigan 70, Purdue 53
• OSU 74, Wisconsin 62
• Maryland 63, Minnesota 49
• Northwestern 78, PSU 81
• Rutgers 74, Indiana 70

Your big winner of this week was (sigh) Michigan, the only team to play two games and get through unscathed—and they did so with two blowouts, one over a surging Purdue squad. They'll hang onto first place in the conference through the department-wide pause because Iowa's shooters went cold while their defense gave up 1.18 points per possession to Indiana.

The Hoosiers, naturally, turned around and lost at home to Rutgers. Wisconsin, meanwhile, fell another game behind the Wolverines with a home loss to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were nipped at home earlier in the week by the same Purdue team that Michigan hammered a few days later. Maryland got similarly smashed by the Wolverines, then dominated Minnesota on the road.

If you're having a tough time making sense of this conference, you're not alone.

The Standings

I've added NET rankings and records versus quartile 1 and 2 opponents.

*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.

Movement in both the standings and in the advanced rankings is becoming less drastic from week to week as teams settle in and we get more data on them. There's less divergence between KenPom and Torvik in their team and unit rankings. We also had a couple programs on pause because of COVID, which added to the static nature of the week.

Midseason-ish Awards: The Usual Categories

a Bucket™ [Campredon]

With Michigan forced into a pause, this is as good an opportunity as I'll have to hand out some midseason Big Ten awards. While these take into account play over the full course of the season, I'm putting a heavy emphasis on performance in conference games, though given the shape of the schedule this year that was probably gonna happen regardless.

Today, I'll cover the usual award categories. Later this week, I'll have another post with some less traditional fare, like Most Glorious Disaster Factory and Extreme Just A Shooter™, as well as all-conference selections. This one is dominated by the team in first place.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR: LUKA GARZA

Garza is the engine of the league's top offense by some distance. He's averaging 25 points, nine boards, and two assists in Big Ten games. He's by far the leader in the KenPom Player of the Year standings and is expected to clean up the voter-determined national player of the year awards as well.

This isn't ignoring Garza's below-average defense at the most important defensive position on the court, either. His offense is so overwhelming that he's still the easy choice. He bears one of the biggest offensive loads in the country and is still one of its most efficient players.

Unlike a lot of centers, Garza's essentially never in foul trouble, and that's not at all the case for his counterpart—he draws 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes, often swinging games by forcing opponents to defend him with their backup bigs. By avoiding foul trouble himself, Garza is able to play over 80% of the team's minutes in conference games, and that even undersells his availability because of Iowa's frequent blowout wins. His presence also opens up the arc for his sharpshooting teammates, who are making 40% of their three-pointers. He's the toughest player to gameplan against in the country.

Other contenders: Trace Jackson-Davis, Ayo Dosunmu, Trevion Williams, Hunter Dickinson, Kofi Cockburn, but this really wasn't close

[Hit THE JUMP for a lot of Michigan, I swear I wasn't trying to be a homer. Also, new tiers and this week's schedule.]