omaury samuels

Previously: Podcast 10.0A. Podcast 10.0B. Podcast 10.0C. The Story. Quarterback.

[Bolded player rules: not necessarily returning starter, but someone we've seen enough of that I'm no longer talking about their recruiting profile. Extant contributor.]

FEATURE BACK	Yr.	SHORT YARDAGE	Yr.	3RD DOWN	YR.
Karan Higdon	Sr.	Karan Higdon	Sr.	Chris Evans	Jr.
Chris Evans	Jr.	Chris Evans	Jr.	Karan Higdon	Sr.
Tru Wilson	Fr.*	O'Maury Samuels	So.	Tru Wilson	Fr.*
Christian Turner	Fr.	Hassan Haskins	Fr.	Christian Turner	Fr.

Like every other thing about the run game, this was a story in two parts. Michigan started the year trying to be the kind of team that can run inside zone 80% of the time and make that work because they're just so good at repping it that all attempts to swamp it get outsmarted.

This did not work at all, in part because first-level defenders were continually left alone. The running backs had their hand in those early failures too. When not getting hit in the backfield by DEs they were often running directly into linebackers, thus spurring a UFR complaint about "zero cut running":

Too frequently Michigan guys are running straight the whole play. When the opposition has put an extra guy in the box you need to get someone to waste themselves without occupying a blocker, and misdirection is the way to do that. There's play-level misdirection that gets filed under Rock Paper Scissors, and then there's an in-play misdirection where you threaten one gap and then show up in another. There's a reason you hear a lot about "great one-cut runners" and not great zero-cut runners. ... Evans [just] runs directly into Bentley here:

Cut. You are 210 pounds; he is 260. You have the advantage when he changes direction. Purdue has pinched their line here to get this exact thing, but the risks are clear: on either side of the Great Wad in the middle of the play are big pockets. Don't take their bait.

It was heartening that Michigan's running backs repaired this deficiency over the course of the year. A shift towards more power rushing helped, as did a general surge in competence after Juwann Bushell-Beatty was inserted. More room and a more familiar patterns helped but to your author's eye the just flat-out got a lot better. After they nuked Minnesota:

 

Earlier in the year I complained about "zero cut" running that left no question about where you were headed, and requested a cut. Michigan's backs have started doing this very well on power plays.  The most whizbang example was on the long Higdon touchdown, which happened in part because Higdon's path convinced #8 that he needed to be farther outside:

 

... Higdon had less spectacular results on better and more subtle cuts. This is a much narrower gap that he commits to late; once again that safety is in the wrong gap:

These are decisive shallow cuts that allow Higdon to maintain speed and exploit thin gaps in the defense. The big missed cuts from early in the year are gone. He'll occasionally miss a crack or do something somewhat suboptimal, but the caverns power plays carve out aren't a surprise; he's benefited from the power focus as much or more than the OL.

Some of that got swamped in the general malaise—safeties made contact two yards from the LOS I don't know how often, but the rushing renaissance was real. Despite a bunch of personnel changes and the limitations imposed by the passing game, Michigan finished last year 14th in rushing S&P+. This wasn't just on the backs of Rutgers and Indiana and Minnesota, either: Higdon and Evans combined for 122 yards on 22 carries versus OSU. Give 'em some breathing room and things could be real nice.

RUNNING BACK: I CALL HIM MINI-ROCK

RATING: 4.5

stop! collaborate and listen, ice is ba—where are you all going [Patrick Barron]

There wasn't much question about which running back would get top billing here after KARAN HIGDON ended up six yards short of being Michigan's first thousand-yard running back since Fitz Toussaint, but any lingering doubts were obliterated by this offseason's favorite slice of S&C porn:

Higdon went from 187 pounds on last year's roster to 202, and apparently if you're 5'10" adding 15 pounds of muscle turns you into The Rock. Since Higdon was already a pad-popping runner who brings the "run behind your pads" bit of scouting jargon to vivid, YAC-filled life, expectations have ratcheted up a notch. This was Higdon last year:

Higdon this year is going to be fun.

[After THE JUMP: a caveat and a running mate]

Previously: Podcast 9.0A. Podcast 9.0B. Podcast 9.0C. The Story. Quarterback.

[Eric Upchurch]

[Bolded player rules: not necessarily returning starter, but someone we've seen enough of that I'm no longer talking about their recruiting profile. Extant contributor.]

FEATURE BACK	Yr.	SHORT YARDAGE	Yr.	3RD DOWN	YR.	SPREAD H	YR.
Chris Evans	So.	Karan Higdon	Jr.	Ty Isaac	Sr.*	Chris Evans	So.
Karan Higdon	Jr.	Kareem Walker	Fr*.	Karan Higdon	Jr.	Eddie McDoom	So.
Ty Isaac	Sr.*	Ty Isaac	Sr.*	Chris Evans	So.	Ty Isaac	Sr.*
Kareem Walker	Fr.*	O'Maury Samuels	Fr.	Kurt Taylor	Fr.	Karan Higdon	Jr.

Michigan loses their starter but returns 60% of their running back carries, so experience won't be in short supply. Neither will quicks, what with Chris Evans and Karan Higdon emerging into a one-two punch. This is a major shift from De'Veon Smith, a battleship of a back who was great at carrying defensive backs like recalcitrant children but never a visionary.

The nature of these gentlemen is interesting. Most are short, and quick, and clever. Mike Spath gathered this quote at Big Ten media days from an anonymous opponent:

"They have a lot of speed backs now that Smith is gone. They're not going to be a power-running team so I'll be curious to see what type of formations they run. They've got the two guys that could be really good as a No. 1 - Evans and [Karan Higdon]."

This is a sea change from the Smiths and Derrick Greens of the world where how mean you look is priority one. Chris Evans looks like a dang sweetheart, but he's a killer all the same.

RUNNING BACK: KID DON'T PLAY

RATING: 4

if we're being honest his hair is more Play than Kid [Bryan Fuller]

This is a good preview. It is not an infallible one, as last year's take on CHRIS EVANS demonstrates:

…our bet is the Evans hype is likely to peter out into not very much this year. There are only so many snaps to go around and you know Smith, Isaac, and Peppers are going to get their cuts.

Evans was first amongst equals in the three-man platoon behind De'Veon Smith and is now projected by many to start and have a huge breakout year. That includes this space, and not just because of this:

[Evans] coaches a local kids flag football team. This in and of itself is odd and very, very Harbaugh. An acquaintance of mine relates that his kid is in this flag football league, and that his game was at 7:15 in the morning, with a potential second game at 9:30 if his kids' team won. Chris Evans is at this game. Not because his team is playing—his team is the one waiting for the winner at 9:30. Chris Evans is... taking notes? Watching intently? Is Chris Evans, starting Michigan running back, scouting a flag football game at 7 in the morning? Yes. Yes he is.

Dan Murphy confirmed that was no fever-dream of an under-caffeinated parent, uncovering that and yet more Chris Evans coaching exploits. Evans immediately leaps to the front of the Jim Harbaugh 2040 list.

Also the depth chart. Early in camp there were some rumors that Karan Higdon had grabbed the starting job; those were forcefully debunked by both Scout and 247. Evans remains first among equals and should see a plurality—if not a majority—of the carries. His quick hook in the spring game is plenty of evidence in that department:

"I wanted to play more …but they said 'nah, nah, nah, you're not going to play, you're not going to play.'

Also his ability to deploy a sick crossover in a sport that doesn't have them:

Evans breaks ankles. He is superbly agile and able to juke guys in a quick one-two-three step ballet move. He needs little room to pull this off:

In the bowl game he did this literally while in the hole, running through the subsequent arm tackle it set up:

This offseason someone close to the team told me that Evans even had a tendency to juke guys there was literally no way he could see, because he knew what the likely structure of the defense was and what that meant for, say, a safety approaching from the side. He's not just scouting flag football.

This is no doubt part of the reason why Evans seemed immediately more instinctual than De'Veon Smith and Michigan backs since, jeez, Fitz Toussaint. I spent virtually the entire Hoke era complaining about straight-ahead running, bad cuts, and an inability to set up blocks. Evans was a breath of fresh air in that department. He had a feel for how to commit the second level and then burst into a different gap:

Evans was good at putting his foot in the ground after linebackers had decided, and slipping through tight creases in the line. He just knows that he needs to change direction once, and when to make that change:

As a true freshman he's already better at taking advantage of his blocking than anyone who's been in the backfield at Michigan for a minute. And once he gets in the open field it's jockstrap time:

Evans did all he could last year to establish himself as Michigan's top back, and that continued through the offseason:

"He's coached the flag football team. He's held youth camps," he said. "He did that all on his own. His nose was in the playbook all off-season. He put in the work to get bigger. His dedication to taking the next step has been a lot of fun to watch. He's relentless."

While it wasn't all sunshine and roses—Evans made an occasional wacky cut and drew some grumbles around here for going down at first contact too often—it was a freshman year to sit up and take notice of. Numbers adore Evans. Obligatory caveat: they should all come with a big flashing "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE" sign. They are all we have to go on, though, so:

• Evans is first among returning Big Ten RBs in PFF's "Elusive Rating," which turns a combination of broken tackles and yards after contact to "measure a runner's success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers." Ty Johnson and Akrum Wadley are 2 and 3, so the metric passes a basic sanity test.
• His 4.1 yards after contact were fourth best nationally for freshmen and second in the Power 5.
• Evans was the second most likely returning Big Ten back to get five yards on any particular run ("opportunity rate") and towards the top of the league in yards acquired after he got to five ("highlight yards"). He's behind only the two Maryland backs in highlight yards per attempt, and was significantly better than the other three Michigan backs last year in all categories.
• Evans just about swept the RB portion of Michigan's winter combine, winning everything except the powerball throw.

Evans's 40 at the combine was a somewhat alarming 4.64, but I wouldn't sweat that. That might be the first 40 time to ever receive negative FAKES around here. From what we've seen on the field Evans's long speed is at least solid; as a recruit his speed was unanimously declared his best asset, with a significant amount of data backing that up:

A 4.4-ish 40 at the Army Combine just after his junior year is legit. Last March Steve Wiltfong noted that Evans has run a "4.4 hand-held every time" he lays down a 40 yard dash. At Best of the Midwest he ran a 4.37 40, and while that's solidly in the realm of combine fiction Evans's track career was impressive. Tracking Football places him in the 87th percentile of RBs based on his lycra exploits, which include a state championship in the 100 meter relay and a narrow defeat in the regular 100 meter state finals.

Maybe that's a bad run, a dinged up guy, or a typo. I'd be surprised if Evans isn't a legitimate 4.5 guy and, depending on your definition of legitimate, 4.4. But hey, don't take it from me, take it from Drake Johnson, raconteur:

"He's mad athletic. You just see some people and think 'yeah, he's an athlete.' He's an athlete, he just does stuff. He's smooth, he's real smooth. He's like butter smooth, we're just like 'ooh, wow.' He's like *sound effects* someone flips to the side, like he had no chance. Like, I'm sorry you could've tried but it sucks to suck. He just makes it look easy."

(Someone give this man a job talking about things.) Evans's home run ability should be top notch. This doesn't feel like a slow RB:

If he has a problem in this department it would be the ability to turn 40 into 50, and all the evidence outside that 4.64 suggests he'll be fine

Evans's other potential drawback is much more real: pass blocking. He was barely asked to do it last year—14 snaps total per PFF, and when he did it was ugly. He's bigger and older now but still not that big and not that old. He's never going to be Mike Hart. Michigan has a solution and it's one with a lot of upside. Evans:

"I'm coming out of the backfield or in the slot because I'm bigger, but I'm not 230. I can't really step up in the hole and block people. Well, I can -- that's what I've been working on all offseason. [But] we can block with five and send five receivers downfield. Stretch the field out with guys -- the good receivers that stretch the field out. It'll give me more open lanes to run through."

With 91 catches his last two years in high school, Evans was as much a receiver as he was a running back. Michigan entirely neglected to explore that talent a year ago; plenty of spread looks in the spring game suggest they will not continue doing so this year. Webb reports that you should expect him to get more looks thanks to his "outstanding receiving skills" that could have seen him play slot.

Evans should bust out to become one of the Big Ten's best backs, and its most prolific receiver out of the backfield, give or take an Akrum Wadley. He's got the quicks, speed, dedication, and agility to make a great many folks look foolish. You can't project All Big Ten nods in a league where a pretty dang good running back is going to be the 8th-best guy in the conference; Evans should perform at that level.

[After THE JUMP: a cast of thousands! several, anyway. plenty. pedant.]

Previously: Last year's profiles. S J'Marick Woods, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, S Brad Hawkins, CB Ambry Thomas, CB Benjamin St-Juste, LB Drew Singleton, LB Jordan Anthony, LB Josh Ross, DE Kwity Paye, DE Luiji Vilain, DE Corey Malone-Hatcher, DE Deron Irving-Bey, DT Donovan Jeter, DT Phil Paea, DT James Hudson, DT Aubrey Solomon, C Cesar Ruiz, OT JaRaymond Hall, OT Joel Honigford, OT Andrew Stueber, OT Chuck Filiaga, WR Oliver Martin, WR Nico Collins, WR Tarik Black, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, FB Ben Mason.

Los Lunas, NM – 5'10", 190
		Scout	4*, #319 overall #20 RB
		Rivals	4*, NR overall          #21 RB, #1 NM
		ESPN	4*, #240 overall #22 RB, #1 NM
		24/7	3*, #386 overall  #22 RB, #1 NM
		Other Suitors	OU, Arizona, Texas Tech, TCU
		YMRMFSPA	Denard Robinson
Previously On MGoBlog	Hello post from Ace.
Notes	Twitter.
Film
Junior: I give this three-game senior reel a Kind of Good:

O'Maury Samuels was a guy from New Mexico hoping for UT-San Antonio offer when he showed up at a couple of camps and did this:

Samuels posted the top Nike+ Football Rating score of the year during a testing day Saturday at AT&T Stadium with a mark of 142.41. … He then went out Sunday at The Opening Regional in the Dallas area and hit 138, which included 4.4 in the 40 and a 44 inch vertical.

He left with an invitation to the Final in July in Oregon.

UT-San Antonio offered. So did some others. I like to imagine the amount of mail that came in afterwards, and wonder if they put a ski lift on it.

Probably not, since Samuels committed to Michigan mere days after the world learned his name. This short-circuited some fevered pursuit and possibly further rises up the rankings; once committed and back in New Mexico, Samuels didn't have much opportunity to continue climbing without an All Star appearance. For whatever reason, he did not make one.

I bring it up because the scouting doesn't really match the rankings here. Once sites were alerted to Samuels's existence and took in his high school film they came back with reports that are really, really encouraging. ESPN starts off by mentioning his merely "adequate" size before describing a demigod:

Quick, sudden but also fast with very good top-end speed and acceleration to separate.  Excellent vision. Runs with his eyes, very instinctive with a natural feel for the cutback. Will run with patience and let blocks develop, capable of getting through tight closing seams.  … 0-60 in just a few steps …great in-line burst to get through seams of traffic.  … not a pile pusher but he is a tough scrappy runner who doesn't go down easily. Twists and churns on contact and will pop out of arm wraps and make quality yards after contact. Runs with a lower base and possesses excellent balance. … Very natural runner with a ton of speed and quickness.

Hot damn!

Most of this shows up on film to this layman's eye. There are moments where Samuels is obscured by a churning mass of bodies before erupting at top speed from the middle of the pack. He will gear down in the backfield until he finds a lane and then explode into it. He'll reverse field when in trouble and then find a nonexistent crease to jet through instead of bouncing. The bits where he outruns New Mexico safeties are whatever, par for the course. The frequency with which he pauses, surveys, and then does something electrifying is where it's at. Samuels's film kind of feels like this:

I mean… I'm just sayin'.

Other evaluations aren't far off. Clint Brewster:

huge upside … great strength and quickness. … quick-twitch explosiveness pops out at you on film. He can start and stop with subtleness and get skinny through the hole to get to the second level. … combination of speed, quickness, and explosive power that Samuels has is very exciting. … lower-body strength allows him to run through arm tackles and behind his pads. …sudden, 1-cut ability on stretch plays. …toughness to run inside the tackles and can get to the perimeter on the outside zone plays.

Scout's Greg Biggins:

size and speed combo is obvious … plays with a suddenness to him, is a decisive runner who can hit full stride in just a few steps and he's gone. … fluid athlete with no wasted motion, can make you miss in the open field and isn't stiff or robotic like you see with some players that are as muscle bound as Samuels. …vision, patience and balance and projects at the next level as a player who can run between the tackles, bounce it outside and be used in the passing game. … easy to project, no matter what state he was playing in.  

They continue in this vein, with literally no criticisms. Even his less-than-Najee-Harris stature isn't really cited as a problem because he is a squat brick of muscle—see that picture above—and being low to the ground is an asset for tailbacks:

Samuels isn't necessarily a 'big back' in the typical sense of the term. He's 5-foot-10, 188 pounds but he is extremely impressive from a physical standpoint. The dude is jacked. Even at 190 pounds, he's going to pack a punch and be able to play powerfully behind his pads. …one of the most athletic athletes at any position in this entire class. … homerun threat.

In addition, his balance and ability to stay up when hit is a frequent discussion point:

… great running back frame at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, strong and compact. He runs with great balance and has the ability to take a hit, spin off a defender and keep going or just run right through a would be tackler. He has a very strong lower body, is a decisive runner with no wasted motion and can hit full speed after just a few strides.

This 5'10" guy with a crazy SPARQ score gets described as "downhill running back," "classic power back," a "rock-solid, hard-nosed running back" and a guy with a "powerful running style." And yeah, the Versailles of thighs looks hard to tackle:

Touch The Banner praises him as "quick, speedy, strong, [and] instinctive"; Rivals's Adam Friedman says he's a "sturdy guy who can run the ball between the tackles as well as out on the perimeter." Both note his burst, because everyone does.

That about covers it as far as running back skills go. And yet.

It feels like there should be a catch. The rankings are middling. Samuels did open up his recruitment, and when he did the only school he visited was Arizona. (Oklahoma was also talked about.) There really isn't anything in the scouting, so… maybe Samuels's ability to go the distance? Nick Baumgardner was skeptical that he'd be a home run hitter:

He's not a breakaway back. He's a 4.6-ish back. … He's probably not going to be a home run hitter in college and that's not really something I'm sure he can improve. It just sort of is what it is. He's not slow, so don't get that confused. But his top gear comes out early and sort of remains.

This is a lonely opinion, but I mean… feels like there should be a catch, right?

Samuels's top end speed is tough to evaluate because of his competition and there's some confusion about what exactly he ran at camps. Some reports had him running a high 4.5 at the Opening finals—his breakout was at the regional—and others a 4.45 on a tweaked hamstring:

"I was nursing my hamstring, so I sat out track to get ready," said Samuels.  "I wished I was healthier for The Opening and I think if I was, I could have ran a 4.3 (he clocked a 4.45).  I would have ran it another time.  But I was pretty happy with my results."

His hundred-meter times were good for a state championship; his personal record of 11.02 in high school was not in Denard Robinson's class (10.56) and is a bit behind Fitzgerald Toussaint (10.86) and Christian McCaffrey (10.89) but easily beat Dalvin Cook (11.24). McCaffrey and Cook just ran 40s a hair under 4.5 at the NFL combine. Given his explosion—his vert was five inches better than anyone at this year's NFL combine!—he's probably gaining on all non-Denards over shorter distances.

So he's not Denard fast, but he's in line with a couple of the biggest home-run hitters in college football last year. That'll do.

Attitude issues? Doesn't seem like it, via Steve Lorenz:

"He's a great kid," a source told Wolverine247 on Thursday. "He's well built and his mind has been like a sponge so far as he's caught onto everything really well. He really has an awareness about him that you can't teach either which is really interesting."

I do not have a catch for you. Samuels is a super athlete, a natural runner with an excellent, squat running back frame and he's a fringe four star because he's from New Mexico. There is no way there are 20 better running backs in his class.

Etc.: Man, "Los Lunas" is really bugging me. How is it not "Las Lunas"? Argh.

Why Denard Robinson? This is a good point to assert these are playing style comparisons, not assertions player X is going to be Denard Dang Robinson.

But: same frame, same electric start-stop, same field vision and patience. Robinson showed up at the NFL combine at 5'10", 200 and ran a 4.43; his vert was 36.5. He was also Denard Robinson, acceleration machine. Samuels is never going to be as effective a runner because he is not also the quarterback, but he looks like the kind of guy who can go from zero to 60 faster than anyone else on the field. That's Denard. Hopefully he won't have the same fumbling issues caused by long-term ulnar nerve damage. Now I'm depressed. Let's fix that:

Other comparables include Fitz Toussaint, he of the stunning jump cuts and sudden failure to pass block, and Oklahoma's Samaje Perine, per Scout. The judges will also accept "Mike Hart, but fast!" if only for nostalgia's sake.

Guru Reliability: Low. Running backs cannot be evaluated in un-padded situations. New Mexico. Quick emergence and commit caused some fire-and-forget. Rapture scouting reports do not match rankings.

Variance: Moderate. Samuels is already a jacked up 190 and close to physically ready for the show, and there's no doubt what position he'll play. Severe uptick in competition level is always a question.

Ceiling: Very high. SPARQ champion who looks like a savant in highlights.

General Excitement Level: Very high. I'm almost embarrassed about how high I am on this class. Samuels looks unbelievable, and the stuff he's doing in his highlights is stuff that translates. Maybe it'll all fall apart because every run not on the highlights is a ridiculous Mike Shaw bounce, but if so all the scouting reports are lying.

Projection: I'd guess a redshirt since Michigan has four guys ready to go in front of him, but I doubt Samuels is going to stick around for five years so whatever. Still, New Mexico transition and obvious target for garbage carries (Walker) should allow Michigan the luxury.

How Samuels's  career develops depends not only on him but the rest of the crew as well, and there are too many moving parts for me to make a definitive declaration. The next two years will be platoon city with Evans, Higdon, Walker, and Samuels splitting carries. He'll get his chances, and he could be anything from Higdon 2 to Denard 2. Yes, both of those are good outcomes.