nick saban

Update: YES I GOT THE TIMEOUTS REVERSED SORRY THE INFO IS GOOD THE SLEEP IS DEPRIVED. EXPLANATION COMING.

Matt Demorest, Realtor and Lender and I have brought back our (sometimes-)weekly video short. The purpose of these is to show you something on film that you as a fan will be able to pick up on when you see it in the future. Or to just show you what people are talking about. This time we broke down the final stop against Alabama, what each team was trying to do and why, and why Michigan had it so well defended (even if Alabama had executed it better). Then we hit the Corum TD because why not.

If you're in the housing market, Matt's the guy.

Repair:

Alabama came out in an unbalanced formation and Michigan saw and called timeout.

When Alabama came out the second time Michigan responded to the extra pass threat by showing a run blitz.

Alabama did not want to run into that so they called timeout. The rest of it is correct. Michigan came out in the same look again, and Bama was in the wrong play for it, but out of timeouts and without a check at the line.

Sorry I got it wrong, I had it right when I was practicing and then I went off and did  another thing.

There is nothing after the jump because it's video content.

Previously: Alabama Offense 

While 'Bama's offense has had its ups-and-downs, the 'Bama defense has been a rock solid unit all season long. Boasting a hyper talented, NFL-ready secondary, the Crimson Tide have SP+'s #9 defense in the country. There are some weaknesses in the middle compared to past years, but the pass rush and secondary is legit and there's plenty to be frightened of here: 

The Film: We're sticking with the Georgia-Alabama tape for the defensive charting as well. Most recent game, a good performance for the defense, and it came against a high-level offense. Checks all the boxes. I will use some tape and reference observations while reviewing film from the other Alabama games this season, including Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, and Auburn as well. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Alabama's defensive line is headlined by its superstar EDGE talent, although we should point out that their two blue chip rushers don't play together all that much. Alabama tends to go with two DTs and their beefy SDE on standard downs, with only one of the two star rushers on the field. Only on passing downs do you see the SDE kick inside and be replaced on the perimeter by the other rusher. The two rushers that trade places as the stand-up EDGE are Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. Both are starred on the diagram, though Turner gets the shield because he is projected for the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while Braswell is more thought of as 2nd round range. Both are expert pass rushers and PFF doesn't differentiate much between their rushing abilities (89.8 vs. 88.6), nor could I find a difference in my review. Both are terrors I would like to see suiting up for the Detroit Lions in the near future. 

The rest of the DL is much less flashy, and it's the DT spot where you see arguably the biggest departure from the typical Alabama team. The foursome of Tim Keenan III, Tim Smith, Jaheim Oatis, and Damon Payne Jr. are all solid players but Alabama doesn't quite have that level of terrifying DT talent that they normally do. None are cyan'd, but none are starred either. Merely decent. The SDE that is nearly DT-sized is 292 lb. Justin Eboigbe, who I don't think has much rushing juice but is a good run defender from the outside and is comfortable moving inside on passing downs. He came close to a star, but ultimately fell short. Reserves on the edges include Quandarrius Robinson, who is occasionally spelling Braswell/Turner, and Jah-Marien Latham, who backs up Eboigbe. 

The linebacker position is rather ho-hum, a primarily three-man rotation of Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell, and Trezmen Marshall. Lawson and Marshall were the nominal starters most of the season but Campbell has moved to take on the title of starter over Marshall late in the year. Campbell is their best coverage LB, an area the other two struggle, while Lawson is their best blitzer. They have varied skillsets and each are capable of making plays, but also being exploited in the right matchups. This positional group, like DT, is a bit of a step down from the usual Nick Saban defense. 

What is not a departure from the Saban standard is the secondary, where Alabama boasts the best cornerback tandem in college football. Kool-Aid McKinstry was a true freshman starter at CB on Alabama's 2021 national championship team and was immediately placed on NFL Draft radars, where he has stayed ever since. As expected, Kool-Aid will be a first round pick in 2024 and he's joined on the outside by Terrion Arnold, who has played very well this season too. I think Kool-Aid is a bit better than Arnold, with Arnold being the one more often targeted by opposing defenses, but the 6'0" Arnold has worked his way into the back-end of 1st round projections due to his play this season. If either outside corner has to miss a play, Trey Amos comes on in relief. He played a bit against Georgia and I honestly felt there was no visible drop-off from the starters. 

At safety, Alabama is rolling out starters at the opposite ends of the experience spectrum with 6th year Jaylen Key, a UAB transfer, starting next to mega-5* Caleb Downs, who is a true freshman. Downs has played exceptionally well this season and earns a star from me, impressive for a Tr Fr safety. Key I was less impressed with but I don't have anything particularly negative to say about him either. The DB starters as a whole log the most snaps on the defense, so there is little room for reserves, but next man up at S is Kristian Story, who splits Downs and Key in the middle in experience as a RS Jr. The HSP/nickel, which 'Bama calls the "STAR", is Malachi Moore. A fourth year player, Moore is both a figurative and literal star, excellent as a run defender and in coverage. This secondary has no real weakness and boatloads of NFL talent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: how they do damage]

Two of college football's five or so most iconic brands will do battle on New Year's Day 2024 in the sport's most iconic venue, Michigan and Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game. The Wolverines seeking to win their first national championship in a quarter century, Alabama looking to add to the greatest dynasty of all time. No shortage of narratives to discuss in the run up to this year's CFP game and it's my job to introduce the Alabama offense, a unit with a new QB this season and a high degree of variability. 

The Film: Running with the SEC Championship Game since Alabama played Georgia, in my view the best opponent they played all season. Also it happens to be the most recent game... convenient! I'm also going to use some of the Texas tape, since that was Alabama's other game against a truly elite team, and the contrast from early September to early December can give us a few clues into how much this Alabama team has grown. There may be some clips from other games as well but the main charting is from the Georgia game in Atlanta. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Alabama's new QB for the 2023 season eventually turned out to be Jalen Milroe, following an exceptionally messy QB competition that saw Alabama start Tyler Buchner against USF and their offense crumbled. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees' familiarity with Buchner probably played a role in why the QB competition went on as long as it did, and I imagine Milroe's unpredictability and occasional ugly decisions scared the staff some. However, make no mistake, this competition should never have lasted that long. Milroe has his downsides, which we will discuss, but he's a vastly better QB than Buchner and a player with immense talents, tremendous athleticism, and a great arm. He's a dual threat passer and has taken 'Bama to heights they could never have reached with Buchner. 

The Crimson Tide lost 2022 star Jahmyr Gibbs to the Detroit Lions of the NFL in the offseason, but returned the #2-4 backs from last season, Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, and Jamarion Miller. McClellan is their leading rusher in yards and attempts, though he missed the Georgia game I charted with a foot injury (status for New Year's Day is unclear). Williams got the start and looked just fine in his place. I don't think these RBs are monsters on the level of a Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Najee Harris, etc. but they are all good players. Not incredible, not getting the star, but nothing wrong with any of them either.  

The WRs are a number of the same players from last year, with 2022's leading WR Jermaine Burton (a one-time Georgia transfer who played Michigan in the 2021 CFP) returning for this season and has blossomed into a star. Watching Bond's 9 catch, 197 yard, 2 TD toasting of Texas A&M back in early October was the moment I knew he had arrived and got the mental star in my mind. Isaiah Bond has seen his production uptick significantly over last year, leaping well in front of Kobe Prentice on the depth chart. Bond caught the answered prayer against Auburn and leads the team in catches (Burton leads in yards), a tick below star status for me but quite dangerous. Both Burton and Bond are around 6', while Prentice is the 5'10" slot, only 17 catches compared to 31 last season. I don't have too many notes on him. Malik Benson has 13 catches as a rotational outside receiver, actually appearing more than Prentice, while Kendrick Law is a slot receiver who lines up in the backfield a decent amount and is used quite a bit as a blocker or to run shallow crossing routes. 

Alabama has used 12 and 13 personnel quite a bit this season, with three TEs who all have more snaps on offense than their third-most used WR (Benson). Those TEs are Maryland transfer CJ Dippre, blocker Robbie Ouzts, and flex receiver Amari Niblack. Dippre is the most balanced tight end of the three in terms of responsibility, some receiving and some blocking, but his PFF grades have been lackluster and he only has 9 catches on the year. Ouzts is a pure blocking tight end, heavily utilized on rushing plays and acts as a fullback on some of Alabama's inside zone concepts, with only three catches on the season. Niblack is the opposite of Ouzts, a flex TE who rarely blocks but does damage as a receiver. The 6'4" sophomore Niblack has 19 catches for 321 yards and 4 TDs on the season, second on the team in all three categories.  

The 'Bama offensive line got quite a bit of heat early in the season for being well below the program standard and while I think they are still a bit down for the typical Alabama OL (which normally is laced with NFL-ready studs), it isn't bad. The strength of the OL is on the right side in your author's view, RT JC Latham being a projected first round pick by most scouting services in this upcoming NFL Draft. Next to him is RG Jaedan Roberts, who gets the star for a strong showing against Georgia. The other half of the line isn't quite as sharp, with its biggest weakness at C, where Seth McLaughlin has had issues blocking and snapping this season, earning him a cyan circle. The left side of the line is notable for its youth and inexperience, LG Tyler Booker being a true sophomore and LT Kadyn Proctor a true freshman(!!). Proctor has had the wobbles you'd expect and I think is a vulnerability for Michigan to target, but hasn't been bad enough to be cyan'd. Booker has been pretty good and was close to star status. As a line they are better run blocking than pass blocking. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Jalen Milroe Experience]