lets start again
[EDIT: Comments now on]
An irregular series on the 2019-20 basketball team. In rough order of roster certainty.
Previously: point guard.
ROSTER
Jon Teske (Sr.): Brilliant defensively beyond any ability of stats to reckon with it. 79th in block rate, just 3.2 fouls per 40 for Big playing 30 MPG is all we have. On offense absurdly low TO rate was 4th nationally; hits 61/30 from floor. A dude.
Colin Castleton (So.): Stick insect type person was locked on the bench until forced into a few minutes at Iowa, where he seemed instantly a better defender than any non-Teske on the roster. Offensive game has not yet been displayed, but it's there.
Austin Davis (Jr.*): Deemed unplayable except during emergencies about halfway through the nonconference season. Bigs do develop late, but… yeah not looking like it's going to happen.
Isaiah Livers (Jr.): Small-ball C was surprisingly effective in certain situations (vs Bruno Fernando) and a defensive liability in others (vs Iowa's Various Tall Persons). Moving into starting lineup at the 4, in all probability, but will draw in at the 5 against certain matchups.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Where does Teske go from here?
The post. But first, let's marvel at some stuff.
If All Big Ten is supposed to be about what you did during league play it's outrageous that Teske was not on an All Big Ten team. Nick Ward was third team! So was Tyler Cook! Meanwhile, Teske in conference:
- Shot 62/36 with a 4.6(!!!) turnover rate for a 127 ORTG.
- Played 30 MPG for a defense that was only second-best in conference because Michigan was 18 points worse per 100 possessions when he was on the bench.
Ward couldn't play for Michigan State down the stretch even when he was healthy and Tyler Cook had a 97 ORTG on the worst defense in the league. Cumong man.
Teske doesn't have the flashy block stats that pogo-stick centers do but there's a case to be made he's the best defensive center in college basketball. Michigan switched him on point guards in late clock situations because, eh, it's fine.
Jon Teske just showing everyone why he's one of the best defenders in all of college pic.twitter.com/T898BAiarR
— Zach Milner (@ZachMilner13) March 23, 2019
That mobility made him a superior hedge-and-recover guy against persons not named Cassius Winston. Every few weeks some NBA guy watching Michigan games for non-Teske reasons would be moved by Teske's team defense enough to post a video of it.
This might be the best defensive possession that I've come across this year
— Zach Milner (@ZachMilner13) February 7, 2019
Michigan's team defense on this possession is amazing, but Jon Teske stands out the most. It's crazy how many things Teske does in one possession. Pay close attention & let me know what stands out to you pic.twitter.com/08AxHAxJVB
Halfway through the season Luke Yaklich started calling one of his sons "Jon," I bet you one dollar.
[After THE JUMP: Teske's next step and Castleton coming.]
An irregular series about Michigan's 2019-20 basketball outlook.
ROSTER
Zavier Simpson (Sr.): Captain Hook pushed his ORTG up a few points while ticking upward in usage, went from 206th to 17th in assist rate. Went from 52% to 67% at the line as FT rate plummeted with hack-an-X no longer viable. Three point shooting static and extremely streaky. Defense was excellent as always.
David DeJulius (So.): high school skillset did not immediately translate, averaged about 3 MPG. Had the occasional impressive take but 5/15 from two and 1/15 from three on the year.
Eli Brooks (Jr.): promising start, horrendous middle, redemptive finish. Brooks was Michigan's only bench guard but a 94 ORTG on 13% usage in year two is a tough starting point to get to "good bench player" from.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
What's the X project this offseason?
[Patrick Barron]
One of the joys of the recently completed season was Zavier Simpson, of all people, bringing back a 100% bonafide Kareem Abdul-Jabbar skyhook. It dropped at a ~60% clip despite steadily ramping up in degree of difficulty once opponents understood that it was a viable option. And every time it went down the announce crew reacted like they'd seen God.
Simpson spent last offseason in the gym with his dad resurrecting a classic. He also pushed his free throw shooting up to a level where it's a non-issue. He barely gets to the line; nobody's going to hack him at the end of games. As long as he maintains ~67% that project can be done.
[After THE JUMP: exploring X's final form, and his backups]
An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: Point guard.
bench mob no more [JD Scott]
ROSTER
Jordan Poole (So): [cartoonish SUPER VILLAIN] Oh no! An OVERDOSE of SWAG. [/dies]
(108 ORTG on high-ish usage, 52/36 shooting, 82% from line, needs work on defense, breakout candidate)
Adrien Nunez (Fr): Just a shooter?
Ibi Watson (Jr): played about 3 MPG, shot 46/32, other numbers useless due to sample size.
Mystery Man (???): He's either pirated from other spots on the roster or a mid-major who thought they really had something.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
Didn't Ace already write this post?
Sort of! Kind of! Mostly, yeah.
Questions one through five at this spot are "what happens to Jordan Poole?!," and Ace just posted one of those one-Q mailbags about Poole and his recent Michigan comparables:
I've used Bart Torvik's invaluable site to pull the statistics of Poole and his comparables against top-50 (venue-adjusted) competition. When you ignore minutes and usage for a moment—two factors with clear explanations I'll get to momentarily—there's a clear match for Poole: Stauskas.
Trey Burke, mostly thrown in as an extra data point, had far different usage as a pure point guard. The rest are wings and therefore more comparable. The numbers that give me optimism regarding Poole are his two-pointers—taken with relative frequency, finished with efficiency—and his combination of high usage, extant assist rate, and low turnover rate.
Stylistically, Poole is absolutely more Stauskas than any other Beilein-era SG/SF. Both are archetypically Not Just A Shooter. The freshman versions of both attacked closeouts relatively well, hit free throws, sniped from the outside, rarely turned it over, and had a healthy-for-a-freshman-NJAS assist rate. Their FT rates are nearly identical; their 3PA/FGA rates are nearly identical.
There's obviously a big gap in minutes, but roster composition explains all of that. The only vaguely guard-shaped objects on the bench in 2012-13 roster were fellow freshmen Spike Albrecht (short) and Caris Levert (willowy). Poole was on the same roster as the senior version of Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Charles Matthews, The Kentucky Transfer.
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
If we overlook minutes, the main differences between the two are efficiency and usage. Stauskas hit 44% of his threes as a freshman versus Poole's 36%. Stauskas was a fourth banana with 17% usage; Poole got more shots up per 40 than anyone on the team not named Moritz Wagner. Stauskas was surrounded by Trey Burke, Naismith Edition, and a junior Tim Hardaway Jr. Poole was surrounded by Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews—good players but nowhere near that level.
This is part problem and part promise. Problem: Poole was a walking heat check as a freshman, which depressed his efficiency and upped his usage. Hopefully he'll play a little bit more within himself once he's on the floor for most of the game. Promise: Michigan needs someone to create shots. They need someone with some lip curl on offense. They need a guy who unbalances defenses. Poole can be that guy.
Ace suggests that a Stauskas leap is optimistic but achievable…
The Stauskas leap remains spectacular. He significantly upped his usage, improved his efficiency while taking on a much greater role as a distributor, and even improved significantly as a three-point shooter despite taking way more of his shots off the bounce.
I still think Poole can do something quite similar. He may not have played the early minutes Stauskas did, but he played a lot of important minutes and took on a bigger role when he saw the floor. Meanwhile, a lot of what he did on the court looked downright Stauskas-esque. Both are known for their unabashed three-point gunning, but what really separates the two is their ability to score from all three levels (rim, midrange, three).
…and yeah, it is. Ace didn't mention the other really encouraging thing about Poole: his age. He won't turn 19 for a couple more months, which makes him more Caris Levert (who turned 19 the August after his freshman year) than Stauskas (who turned 19 a month into his). Levert made an even bigger jump than Stauskas in year two, going from the overwhelmed guy in the table above to a 112 ORTG, 21% usage guy playing 34 MPG.
Poole will blow up. The question is "how much?"
[After THE JUMP: D though? Backups though?]
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