julian barnett

just do this all the time, no pressure [Bryan Fuller]

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BackWide Receiver & Tight EndOffensive LineDefensive Line, Linebacker

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

We've reached the end of this series, as I'm not going to attempt to squeeze in a special teams preview in a pandemic year. (Short version: college kickers.) Unfortunately, it looks a lot like the beginning of the series.

Tier I: The F****** Buckeyes, Again

sorry, this is the only shot we have of Shaun Wade [Eric Upchurch]

1. Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes lost two first-round cornerbacks—even if their fans were shocked to see Damon Arnette picked that high—and starting safety Jordan Fuller. Corner/slot Shaun Wade still ensured OSU's spot atop another position group when he opted back into the season his dad lobbied so hard to have. According to PFF's season preview magazine, Wade had more pass breakups (8) than first downs allowed (7) in 2019, a feat no other Big Ten player came close to matching.

Wade can move all around the defense. Cornerbacks Sevyn Banks and Cameron Brown are both 6'1" former four-stars; the former impressed in limited snaps last year, the latter got a lot of attention during OSU's abbreviated spring session. Safety Josh Proctor is expected to be a seamless replacement for Fuller as the single-high safety in their Cover 1/3-heavy scheme. If they utilize a second safety, it's likely to be Marcus Hooker, Malik's younger brother.

This is a defensive back factory until further notice.

Tier II: Good, Slightly Flawed

Wisconsin DBs benefited from a hellacious pass rush in 2019 [Patrick Barron]

2. Wisconsin. One of the top statistical pass defenses in the country returns almost every major contributor and even brings back former starting safety Scott Nelson, who went out for the year to injury in last season's opener. I don't see them in the same tier as OSU, however, because I'm skeptical they can replicate last year's success without last year's monster pass rush—sack leader Zack Baun leaves a big hole at outside linebacker.

When better opponents were able to hold down the pass rush, they feasted. From HTTV:

After an excellent first half of the season, the secondary struggled down the stretch in 2019. While the schedule got a lot tougher, the numbers from their mid-October upset loss at Illinois through the Big Ten title game were ugly: opponents threw for 9.2 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The overall numbers are still excellent and there's experience across the board what with losing only safety Reggie Pearson from last year's secondary. There's a chance UW does their usual reload up front and makes it just as tough to poke holes in the back. They'll be well-coached under defensive coordinator and longtime NFL safety Jim Leonhard. I'm not sure there's high-level NFL talent but if these guys show up in the right place it might not matter.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

It's getting to them. [Bryan Fuller]

Resources: My charting, MSU game notes, MSU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: I charted them against Ohio State and watched the Illinois game twice. OSU because I used some of the bye week to start scouting OSU. Illinois because it was pretty funny.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

MSU assures the public that senior quarterback Brian Lewerke will start his fourth Michigan game after going through concussion protocol (or not). His backup got in against Wisconsin and Penn State when Lewerke was struggling—Rocky Lombardi went 6/20 for 71 yards and 2 INTs. Statuesque freshman Theo Day got a drive vs PSU on which he threw for 12 yards on 4 passes, ran once for no gain, and fumbled a snap.

Most of the running back room bolted once redshirt freshman Elijah Collins (+7/-4 in my charting vs OSU, 5 YPC) took over. He's one of those MSU backs, with good balance and power after contact. He is still a freshman, picking up a false start in both games and many pass pro minuses against one good cut block. With backups Connor Heyward, La'Darius Jefferson and scatback Weston Bridges among the departing, freshman Anthony Williams has had to serve; he's getting under 3 YPC and is just a guy.

Tight end is down to two of the foursome they started with, losing the guy who was #4 to a transfer, and the guy who was #1 to a season-ending injury last week. That leaves an odd couple: Buffalo grad transfer Matt Seybert (+4/-7) is a fair run blocker and the best receiving target (8.5 yards per target, 73% catch rate) but still lost in pass pro. Athletic redshirt freshman Trent Gillison at this stage of his career is a big receiver who commits a lot of OPI.

[After THE JUMP: Weird guys]

Time To Not Watch This Highlight Video Again

After previously being eliminated in a move that came as a surprise, Michigan is back in the mix for four-star NC DT Alim McNeill. McNeill had planned to announce his decision on September 9th, almost certainly for stated leader NC State, but with some nudging from the Wolverines he's put that decision off until he can take some official visits, per Scout's Michael Clark:

“I’m going to take some official visits before I decide,” said the 6-foot-2, 272-pound McNeill. “I’m definitely taking officials to Michigan, N.C. State and Virginia Tech.”

Michigan is making a late push for McNeill.

“They’re just Michigan,” McNeill said. “Coach (Jim) Harbaugh and the coaching staff stand out. I also like the tradition and they’ve always been a top football program.

“I had a talk with (defensive coordinator) coach (Don) Brown. Coach Brown really sold me on their defensive tradition.

“He talked about how they feel they could develop me as a player and how they could use me in the defense. He said they like my versatility. I’m ready to go up there and see what they have to offer.”

McNeill maintains NC State leads the pack, while Virginia Tech is also in his top group and Florida State is lurking. That said, it's always good to be the school the causes a prospect to rethink his timeline. This one should get interesting if/when McNeill makes it to campus. Getting back into contention with him is big for Michigan, which is in contention but not the outright leader for their top defensive tackle targets in the 2018 class—adding McNeill back into a target group including Tyler Friday, Michael Thompson, and Rick Sandidge makes it that much more likely they'll land at least one coveted DT.

I continue to recommend against watching his sophomore highlight video.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]