hockey preview

 ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW

Michigan arrives in their second straight Frozen Four tonight, also their third appearance in the event in five NCAA Tournaments. The team has been cursed in this round since winning their last national title in 1998, losing in the first Frozen Four game in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2018, and 2022, with only 2011 as a positive to show in the semis. This year's team doesn't care about that history though, they're ready to win the national title and end the quarter-century drought. Step one is knocking off Quinnipiac tonight, in a meeting of two #1 seeds. QPac was the 2nd overall seed while Michigan was 3rd, so the Bobcats will be the "home team". They are also slightly favored in the KRACH ratings, though DraftKings' moneyline has Michigan favored. This should be a good and close game. 

[David Wilcomes]

THE US

The last time we saw Michigan, they were in the Midwest Regional in Allentown, PA. After steamrolling Colgate in the opening round 11-1, they got locked in a tight battle with B1G rival PSU. Michigan controlled the balance of play for the entirety of that game, but struggled to get anything by Nittany Lion goaltender Liam Souliere, who was playing one of the games of his life. After surrendering a goal while on the penalty kill, Michigan found themselves in a 1-0 hole entering the third, eventually scoring on the PP to tie it at 1, sending the game into OT. It took less than a minute for Michigan's Mackie Samoskevich to vanquish the program's OT demons on a wrist shot that was ripped by Souliere, sending Michigan to the Frozen Four in walk-off fashion. 

The Wolverine team that arrives in Tampa tonight is a hot one, having won six games in a row and 14 of 19 since dating back to early January. They won the B1G Tournament title over Minnesota and are playing with a lot of confidence. Old pitfalls from earlier in the season, including discipline and wobbly goaltending, have been shored up in the past few weeks leading up to tonight. They boast elite talents all over the lineup in Adam Fantilli, Luke Hughes, and Samoskevich, and will bring a youthful swagger with them to the ice tonight. It should be fun. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Get to know the Bobcats]

Michigan is heading to Boston for it's NCAA-leading 26th Frozen Four, hoping to add to its NCAA-leading nine National Champions banners. Since I started closely following Michigan Hockey back in my freshman year of 2003-04, the Wolverines have made it to the final weekend just three times. In April 2008, Michigan was the best team in the country, flying through the CCHA and Albany Regional, led by Hobey Baker winner Kevin Porter and his winger Chad Kolarik. Everything Porter touched that season turned to goals. Unfortunately, Billy Sauer never really got the hang of playing at the Pepsi Center and the best team in the country came up a little short in OT to (surprise) Notre Dame. 

A few years later in 2011 a scrappy group of seniors led by Carl Hagelin, Matt Rust, and Louie Caporusso...not to mention Mighty Mite Super Goalie Shawn Hunwick...fought and clawed their way to St Paul through a two goal deficit and overtime winner again Nebraska-Omaha and then held on in a tight nail-biter against Colorado College. Shawn Hunwick earned the nickname "Tiny Jesus" for his 40,000 save, 2-0 shutout performance against behemoth super giant North Dakota, giving Michigan their first shot at a National Championship since 1998. Unfortunately, the Wolverines spent most of that game in the penalty box after using their legs just to make it to Saturday night. Goals from Bottom Six forwards Ben Winnett and Jeff Rohrkemper were not enough as the Wolverines experienced the beginnings of the Overtime Dark Arts of Minnesota-Duluth.

In the spring of 2018, Mel Pearson took his inaugural team back to St Paul after a late season run gained Michigan a tournament selection in Massachusetts. Cooper Marody, Josh Norris, and Quinn Hughes led the Wolverines through home state heroes Northeastern and Boston University. The roller coaster ride of Hayden Lavigne dipped against old Frozen Four foe Notre Dame, as Michigan blew a two goal lead and lost in the waning seconds of regulation. ​While that team was fun at times, they got hot at the right time, but were probably never good enough to win it all.

Now here we are, not too dissimilar to 2008. Michigan is the #1 overall seed, dripping with speed, skill, and future NHL stars. They beat their Automatic Qualifier Reward of AIC. They crushed...and then outlasted...the fiesty, experienced Quinnipiac Bobcats to give themselves a chance to go for glory. There are no lay-ups, cream puffs, or look-aheads. Just chalk. But as they say..."To be the best, you have to beat the best." Whomever does that next Saturday night...will have surely earned it.

[David Wilcomes]

The Four in Boston

(1) Michigan, (1) Minnesota State, (2) Minnesota, (1) Denver: The knock on this tournament is the randomness of single-elimination hockey...and lack of butts in seats in neutral arenas. That was not and will not be the case this weekend. If you could hand-pick four teams to battle it out for the national championship...it would be these four (sorry, not sorry Western Michigan).

• Michigan is...well, Michigan. Locked and loaded with no real weaknesses, except the fact that anything can happen in 60 minutes of hockey. In any length series, they win. Against anyone. Book it. (But we'll never truly know because why do anything that makes sense?).
• They play Denver. Who is basically Michigan. Their non-con schedule was not quite as good, but maybe their conference schedule was stronger? They're talented, fast, and explosive. Sounds familiar.
• Minnesota State is also almost untouchable. In fact, since Michigan beat them back in October (when Michigan Football was just 6-0 and no one had danced in the snow of November 27th or the confetti of December 4th) the Screaming Eagles have lost just *three* times. Wut. Their numbers are incredible. They have no weaknesses, just maybe not quite the elite talent of the three other teams. Still, they may be the toughest out of all.
• Their opponent is a team the Wolverines have seen five times, Minnesota. Yikes. Despite all of Michigan's success, it was Minnesota who won the Big Ten regular season– despite losing their starting 12th year starter in net– and sending multiple players to the Olympics. Have I mentioned they also beat Michigan twice? The Gophers can skate, score, and defend with Michigan and are getting surprisingly stellar goaltending from Justen Close. There will be no surprise national champion in 2022.

(1) Michigan vs (1) Denver

[Zoey Holmstrom]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Denver (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Thursday):

1. Take Shots. This seems obvious and unnecessary to reiterate, but it probably is the one slight difference between these two teams. Magnus Chrona hasn't been poor, but he has been susceptible to an eye-roller or two. For all of Erik Portillo's blood pressure raising wanderings, he's been very solid in the crease, not giving up many terrible goals. In a game that seems like it will feature wide open offense, Michigan should have the slight advantage in net. Get as many pucks on net, and see if you can steal a bad goal or two. That could be the difference.

2.  Don't Take A Major. This will be a thing until this year ends. Could it be negated by not having to deal with Big Ten referees? Possibly, but enough of those were also on the players. We've reached the point in the tournament where everyone is going to have a dangerous power play and you cannot spend 1/12 of the game defending an All-You-Can-Eat power play. Michigan hasn't committed a major power play in post-season hockey, so I don't think it will be a problem... but still!! Don't do it!

3. Don't Stop. No lead is safe. Both of these teams are firewagons and can rally from deep deficits. All gas, no brakes. I expect this game to open up, and away we'll go. This has the feel of the team with the puck last (or the goalie who makes the crazier saves) will win. Good for hockey, television rating, and neutrals... not for blood pressure and ulcers!

Final Thoughts: This is going to be fun. It would be better if it were a series, though. Both teams are basically mirror images of each other. They want to attack, shoot, score...and do it again. Then, they want to throw their defensemen into the fray and shoot and score even more. Michigan may have a slight advantage on special teams and in net. Has Portillo given up 10 bad goals this year? Denver is weirdly maybe a tad deeper (lolwut) in scoring depth. Denver wants to try to tie Michigan for total title banners; Michigan wants to extend their breathing room over the Pioneers. In the end, Portillo outshines Chrona, and Michigan wins a barn-burner.

Alex's Take: I like Michigan's chances in this one, but predictions for these sorts of games are mostly meaningless. Denver presents an extremely interesting challenge as a team who can pressure Michigan with their forecheck, and they've got skill that very few other teams have. If Erik Portillo isn't on his game, the Pioneers can shovel in goals. But the same could be said the other way around. Two teams that want to play a high scoring game, but in that context, I take the team with the better goalie and the one with (at the end of the day), more talented players. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The game that doesn't involve Michigan]

ESSENTIALS

WHAT	Michigan vs American International
WHERE	PPL Center Allentown, PA
WHEN	3:00 PM EST
KRACH Prob.	Michigan (85.7%)
TELEVISION	ESPNU

OVERVIEW

Welcome to the worst annual event in all of sports, the NCAA Hockey Tournament. (1) Michigan kicks off today in the first round against (4) American International (AIC) in the Midwest Regional, for the right to play the winner of Quinnipiac and St. Cloud State on Sunday. Two wins this weekend and Michigan can make it back to the Frozen Four, which is being held in Boston. Today's game will be played in a mostly empty arena in Allentown, Pennsylvania, because that's what the NCAA has decided is a good idea. 

THE US 

Michigan enters this NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed for the first time since 2008, boasting a 29-9-1 record. Michigan's dream roster has mostly paid off as expected. The only hiccups have come against Notre Dame, which cost the Wolverines the regular season crown, but they righted the ship and knocked off the Irish in the B1G Tournament semis, en route to a ring last weekend over Minnesota. Michigan is one of the top offensive and defensive teams in the country, a well-rounded squad with stars at all three levels, from C Matty Beniers to D Luke Hughes to G Erik Portillo. This is as good of a shot to win another national title that Michigan Hockey has had since 1998. 

[James Coller]

THE THEM

The prize for having a great regular season and earning the top overall seed is drawing the Atlantic Hockey Association's automatic qualifier in the first round of the tournament. Atlantic Hockey is the sport's lone true mid-major conference, only putting one team in the tournament each season (the winner of its conference tournament), and on-paper their entrant is by far the weakest team in the field. This year that's the American International Yellow Jackets, who have become the class of Atlantic Hockey in recent years. They've made it to three straight NCAA Tournaments, and were favored to make it four as the regular season champion in the COVID-canceled 2020 season. AIC has been here before, having been blasted by #1 North Dakota last year, but pulling off a stunning upset of #1 St. Cloud State in 2019's first round *gulp*. 

When you look at a team like AIC, you have to evaluate them while taking into account their strength of schedule. At a bird's eye glance, the numbers look great, but they played a schedule that is vastly easier than the one Michigan played. When they did play teams that Michigan played, the numbers are very different. AIC went 1-6-1 against non-Atlantic Hockey teams (counting an exhibition against Boston College) and 21-7-2 against Atlantic Hockey teams. They scored just 12 goals in those eight games and allowed 25. AIC would have been one of the worst teams in the B1G, had they played in the conference. 

Chris Theodore is among the veteran leaders [AIC Athletics]

Michigan and AIC have two common opponents this season, Niagara and UMass. AIC lost 5-1 and 4-2 to UMass, and UMass owned 66.9% of the shot attempts at even strength in those two games. Michigan beat UMass 4-1 and 4-2 and owned 64.3% of the shot attempts at even strength in those two games. The transitive property result of Michigan vs. AIC based on those two sets of results is not pretty for the Yellow Jackets. Similarly, Michigan obliterated Niagara 6-1 and 4-1 and owned ~64% of shot attempts at even strength. Meanwhile AIC tied Niagara 1-1 and beat them 4-3, with shot attempts at even strength being nearly even. Michigan is a vastly better team than American International. But that doesn't mean the Yellow Jackets can't win one game head-to-head. 

AIC is a balanced team, 7th in goals per game at 3.5 and 15th in goals against per game at 2.4. They're a veteran team up front, with their top four forwards being one junior, one senior, and two grad students. Blake Bennett leads the team in scoring, both goals and points, with an 18-14-32 stat line. After two seasons of seldom playing, Bennett has emerged as a star for the Jackets. 

Chris Dodero and Justin Young are NCAA Tournament veterans who have played in prior NCAA Tournaments. Interestingly, AIC opted to scatter its top scorers across the lineup in its most recent game against Air Force, playing Young on a line with Chris Theodore, and then putting Dodero and Bennett on separate lines. Zak Galambos is the top-scoring defenseman at the top of the power play, while Bennett and Jake Stella are the snipers to watch when AIC goes on the man-advantage.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]