dylan larkin

It's offseason content time and with few current Michigan athletes to talk about, I thought it would be a good idea to check in on some from the past. We did this exercise as a HockeyCast episode last year and this time I decided to do it in written form. We're going to check in on the Michigan Hockey alumni from the past who are competing in the NHL to see how they're doing. I've structured it based on what category of player they fit into and at the end I'll also shoutout a few guys who are still playing in the minor leagues: 

The Studs 

These are the players who are considered high end, All-Star caliber. They are one of the three or so best players on their given teams and are getting paid premium money in the NHL: 

Quinn Hughes, D, Vancouver Canucks: Hughes had a bounceback season, setting career highs in points and assists with an 8-60-68 line. The point total ended up being a franchise record for points in a single season by a defenseman, and he finished the season tied for 6th in points by a defenseman league-wide. Hughes is a premier puckrushing defenseman who sacrifices a good bit of defense to produce an offensive output that few other blueliners can match. He signed a contract extension in the fall that will last for six years and total $47.1 M. At only 22 years old, it feels very likely that he will be worth that deal. Hughes is a building block for a Canucks organization that is looking to re-tool and return to contention. 

Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: Larkin is another player who had a career year, riding the wave of higher offensive outputs across the NHL to score a 31-38-69 line in just 71 games. Though none of those three totals were technically career highs, on a per-game basis, his goals and points clip were career bests. At age 25, this is about Larkin's peak, a very good 1.5C, not the ideal first line center on a championship team, but also a well above average second line center. He is entering the final year of his contract, at $6.1 M per season. The Red Wings, who have made Larkin their captain, have an interesting decision to make about how he fits in with future pieces who are substantially younger like Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. 

Josh Norris, C, Ottawa Senators: Norris had one of those seasons where you look at his numbers and say "Josh Norris scored 35 goals??!??". In fairness, you could say that about many players in the NHL with the way scoring was up, but regardless, the third season in the league was the charm for Norris. He used his excellent shot to become a power play demon, racking up 16 PPGs, which was good for third-best in the NHL (!), tied with superstar snipers like Auston Matthews and Steven Stamkos (!!). Moreover, Norris did this in just 66 games. Having just turned 23, Norris is an important piece of the Senators' young core as they look to return to the playoff picture. He is a restricted free agent this summer and will be in line for a healthy extension and considerable pay raise. 

[Patrick Barron]

Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: Werenski didn't have massive totals in the counting stats that some of these other players did, but he is still a high-end puckrushing defenseman that a lot of teams would love to have. Werenski put up 48 points in 68 games on the middling Blue Jackets, the highest scoring defenseman on that team by a country mile. He also has his defensive deficiencies, but he drives play and can create offensively at a superb level that makes it well worth it. Werenski is locked up in Columbus (sounds like Hell to me) for the long-term, as next year begins his monster six-year extension that will pay him $9.58 M per season (!!), making him one of the highest paid defensemen in the NHL. 

Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets: Connor had a year a lot like Norris, hitting a goal total that is somewhat shocking when looked at with a bird's eye view. Connor shoveled in 47 goals (!!) and 46 assists for 93 points (!). He finished tied for 5th in the NHL in goals and 13th in points, a staggeringly productive campaign, even on a Winnipeg team that fell far short of expectations. The Jets are likely to make some degree of substantial changes in the offseason but Connor feels like one of the only untouchable pieces on the roster. He continues to do most of his damage off the rush and on the power play, while playing very little defense, but when you score at the level he did, it doesn't really matter. At age 25, this is Connor at his peak. He is signed for four more seasons at a very respectable $7.14 M per year. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More alums in decreasing order of importance]

[Bill Rapai]

Freshman sensation is out the door after a strong World Championships:

Expect announcement Dylan Larkin leaving @umichhockey for Detroit Red Wings and will be available for Grand Rapids series vs Utica. #TSN

— Aaron Ward (@TSNAaronWard) May 21, 2015

You kind of felt this would happen once Larkin started publicly musing on it while the Red Wings were like "whatever you want to do"; with Andrew Copp also gone that is probably Michigan's best two forwards electing to leave before Red Berenson's final year.

That final year projects to be about the same as the last three now.

[Bryan Fuller]

The extra slot. Max Bielfeldt could return next year if Michigan was so inclined. It does not sound like they are rushing to make this happen, though. Bielfeldt:

"I don't even know," the 6-foot-8, 240-pound forward said. "I've just been looking to see what else is out there. If this (situation did come up), I knew I'd have to take it for what it is. If I end up making a decision here in the next week or so and nothing pops up Michigan-wise, then I'll move on.

"(I haven't talked with Beilein about it) since the scholarship opened up."

It might be hard to kiss and make up here with Bielfeldt fielding serious interest from multiple Big 12 schools.

Harbaugh profilin'. Bruce Feldman on the man in khaki:

Most coaches will say they are much better at their jobs than they were a decade ago thanks to experience, but Harbaugh isn't most coaches. "I don't know that I am (a better coach)," he said. "Even though you've proved something before, that's the very nature of football playing or coaching. You could have proved something 1,000 times before. You could prove it again, but now that's all that matters.

"It's irrelevant no matter how many times you prove something. This is the only time that matters."

Well worth a read.

That this is a hard decision is a bad thing. Dylan Larkin is playing at the World Championships for the USA, an impressive accomplishment for any college player. He is still considering signing with the Wings. That would be far from unprecedented, except for the fact that his pro team doesn't seem to be pressing for it at all:

Should Larkin sign with Detroit, he would most likely spend the season in the AHL with Grand Rapids, a team that has consistently been successful recently under the stewardship of coach Jeff Blashill. …

From what I’ve been told, the Red Wings would be happy with Larkin’s decision either way. If he returns to Michigan, he gets to play that big role on a young team (the team had a dearth of juniors this season, so there will only be a handful of seniors next year) and he can learn from mistakes now rather than in a couple years when he’s in the NHL.

If Larkin signs when the Wings are saying "you will play in the AHL"—something they no doubt mean given the guys they've left in Grand Rapids well after they've ripened—that is a devastating commentary on the current state of the program.

Unfortunately, I don't think I would be at all surprised by that. Mike Spath is without question the most plugged-in hockey reporter Michigan has, and when Andrew Copp left he talked to various people in the program and came back with this:

A motivation for Andrew Copp to leave? Apparently his dad didn't like that Copp wasn't the leading scorer the past two seasons and blamed this on Michigan's failure to develop him to be the first-line center he was destined to be.

This is what society has become. Every parent thinks their kid is the next Crosby. Winnipeg apparently told the family he could one day lead their team in points. I like Andrew a lot but that is a crock.

There is only one person who would say this to Spath: Red Berenson. Spath probably should have kept that one under his hat, because it drew a response from Copp's father in which he made it clear that assertions about his character were way off base. A small portion:

Michael it is disappointing that as you have gotten to know Andrew over the last 3 years you should have a gut feeling about how he is as a person. Much has been made about it in the press and by the coaches over the years. Andrew is a very mature young man with character, conviction, and morals. I can tell you that Andrew made the decision to leave completely on his own. We do not parent like micro-managers, we have always raised our two boys to be independent and we support the decisions that they do make. Andrew consulted with our family during the process but never once asked our opinion on what he should do with his life nor did we give it, that is HIS decision. To be honest I don’t know what I would have said, I would have loved to see him play his senior year, see him a couple times a week and every Sunday for family dinner. As a parent you hope you provide your kids with the life skills to make difficult decisions and I am proud of how Andrew has navigated this process.

Red has always been lovably cantankerous about his players leaving before their time. This goes several steps beyond that. Copp was not mentioned at the post-season banquet. When bitterness gets that prominent it starts to seem like a reason for the team's recent underperformance.

Red is going to be back next year, and then he is likely to retire. I'm not particularly optimistic about that final year. That Copp would leave probably doesn't say much about Copp.

For Larkin's part, here's Larkin:

"Not 100 percent," Larkin told The Windsor Star when asked if he's made a decision. "I'm still in between and weighing the options. I wanted to wait until after the tournament to make a decision.

"I'll probably take some time. I mean, I'm not in a rush. The seasons are over. There's really no rush. I really feel like there's not a wrong choice or a bad option. Either way I'm still going to be playing hockey and doing what I love.

"We'll see what's best for me."

I have a bad feel. NCAA muckety-mucks are complaining about the graduate transfer rule, because obviously. They do not have great reasons to do so:

"I don't think it fits the core values of intercollegiate athletics," said Sun Belt Conference commissioner Karl Benson.

When asked for specifics on the conflict with core values, Benson said, "It just doesn't feel right."

The core values of intercollegiate athletics are what exactly? If it's about getting an education, these players have already acquired bachelors' degrees. If it's about a level playing field, that ship sailed, sunk, and turned into barnacles a long time ago. If it's about catering to coaches' whims… we should probably have more timeouts in basketball.

Pat Forde says that if the NCAA is actually concerned about their core values they'd look at the scourge of recruits reclassifying. It's not clear that such a thing is at all common—most kids who reclassify are in fact forgoing a prep year, not accelerating. And the ones who do always have the option of, like, not doing so. It's hard to see what the harm is there. Forde's attempt to conjure one is unconvincing:

A senior year of high school is among the priceless commodities in life. I hope giving that away in part because some coach needs you now is a good decision for Thornton. It certainly seems to be one more example of the coach controlling the athlete more than vice versa.

High school is nice and all but if you told me I could go to prom or start at point guard for Duke I think I might take the latter. Thornton could still pick any school he wants as a class of 2016 player; that Duke presented him with an option he found attractive is not a problem.

Then there are the academic questions. By all accounts, Thornton is a bright young man and he may have been planning his class load with this accelerated graduation in mind. But will he be ready – early – for the classroom challenge at Duke? It's not exactly like going to UNLV.

It is. It is exactly like going to UNLV because every school has easy classes for people not interested in requirement X. I was in some at Michigan. Forde probably doesn't know that college hockey was well ahead of the curve here, with three top-ten NHL picks (Zach Werenski, Noah Hanifin, and Hobey winner Jack Eichel) arriving after accelerating their studies. It seems likely that both Werenski and Hanifin will be back at their respective schools next year, which they could only do if they were coping academically.

Increased flexibility for players is generally a good thing. Let them accelerate cake and graduate transfer cake.

Don't mind if I schadenfreude, thanks. EDSBS's ERASE THIS GAME series strikes upon the USF-Notre Dame game that caused Brian Kelly to turn into Yosemite Sam. Notre Dame's next game was this one:

If you could get in the college football hall of fame for making fanbases other than your own happy, Rees would be a holy lock.

Now when is #M00N happening EDSBS? For pants' sake.

Scouting centers. Brendan Quinn on Austin Davis and Jon Teske:

Davis: While quiet in-person, he's not shy on the floor.

Davis is aggressive with the ball, while remaining steady and methodical, refusing to rush. He knows how to work offensively on the low blocks, utilizing good hands and a soft touch. Most importantly, Davis looks to score the ball. Points to just come to him -- he shows himself well on post-ups and gets his own points.

Teske: The shot-blocking ability is abundantly apparent. Teske is a natural with instinctual patience and timing. He's does well to go up and block shots in the air instead of lunging to get shots at the point of release. That defensive prowess translates to his movements and awareness on that end of the floor. Teske seems to anticipate without guessing, and looks to make defensive plays without leaving himself susceptible to mistakes.

Interesting that MLive is getting more into the scouting/video stuff for recruits. Davis got a bump to four stars on 247, BTW. It looks like there is going to be a severe difference of opinion between the sites on him. Brian Snow has made it clear that Scout is not going to follow suit.

Etc.: Tyus Battle will visit officially tomorrow; Duke has taken a big lead in the Crystal Ball, and this one doesn't seem like guesswork. Remember when a playoff was going to kill the bowls? Speaking of coach catering. On 2016 combo guard Bruce Brown.