cfb recap

Due to last week’s basketball content, we missed the recap for Week 10. As you probably recall, two of the most important games of that week came in the Big Ten, as Ohio State and Penn State were both dealt their second losses in tricky road games. Mark Dantonio summoned another rainstorm and beat PSU on a last-second field goal in front of what was a mostly empty stadium after a three-hour delay in the second quarter; Iowa thrashed OSU and scored FIFTY-FIVE POINTS in the process (the Hawkeyes had played three 17-10 games in the preceding month). Outside of the league, Oklahoma held off Oklahoma State in a 62-52 shootout to effectively eliminate the Cowboys from playoff contention.

Week 11 was probably the biggest week of the season, as there were five games between teams in the top 16 of the playoff committee rankings. Four of those games wound up being blowouts of varying degrees of magnitude, and one was an unexpected near-upset.

Alabama’s 31-24 escape in Starkville against Mississippi State was far more entertaining than it had any right to be. Dan Mullen’s power spread offense put together several sustained scoring drives (that were surely aided in part by an injury-ravaged Alabama linebacker corps) and the Bulldogs led by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, only to finally succumb to the inexorable Tide down the stretch.

Jalen Hurts received the ball with a minute left in a tied game, and after gaining a first down on a completion to Calvin Ridley, found himself in a 3rd-and-15 situation at his own 43-yard line with 31 seconds left and overtime looming. Mississippi State blitzed and Hurts found Ridley on a slant that took Alabama into field goal range; instead of leaving things up to a kicker who’d clanged an attempt a few minutes prior, Hurts threw another slant into a blitz – and freshman receiver DeVonta Smith shook a safety and strode into the end zone for the game-winning score. The cacophony of cowbells was instantly silenced and replaced by a small roar from the visitors’ section, and Alabama’s perfect season stayed intact.

Mississippi State was never quite able to pull away from the Tide in the first three quarters, but they controlled the game: four of their drives went for at least ten plays and five and a half minutes (one ended in a punt) as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Aeris Williams inched the ball down the field. The two combined for 42 carries and 173 yards and the longest carry by either was just 13 yards. To see Alabama pushed around up front by anyone is surprising in and of itself – seeing Bama being handled up front by a team with a decided lack of NFL talent like Mississippi State is downright shocking. They mitigated that by preventing big plays, but it has to be a concern with a critical Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn (more on them shortly) looming in two weeks.

The Tide responded quickly to each of Mississippi State’s touchdowns in the first half by scoring on the rebuttal possessions: a long pass to Ridley in each series set up short scoring runs, and the game was knotted at 14 heading into halftime. Alabama took a brief lead with a field goal on the first drive out of the break, but Mississippi State scored ten unanswered to go up 24-17. Hurts and Josh Jacobs let the offensive line pave the way for a long, methodical scoring drive to even the game; the Bulldogs punted on 4th-and-3 from the Bama 42-yard line with six and a half minutes left; even though Andy Pappanastos couldn’t pull the Tide ahead with a 41-yard field goal attempt with two minutes left, the Bama defense forced a rapid three-and-out to set up the winning drive. The Bulldogs had a chance to tie the game on an untimed down from inside Alabama territory, but a Fitzgerald Hail Mary sailed out of the end zone.

Alabama could have lost the game and still controlled its own destiny in the SEC and playoff races, so the stakes were relatively low. Nick Saban’s merciless machine churned on though, and the Tide are one of the three undefeated Power Five teams left.

[Four key beatdowns after the JUMP]

I know this is the last thing any of us want to do right now (especially after the debacle in Happy Valley), but I have to talk about Notre Dame. Usually, I try to avoid mentioning or even thinking about the Irish – unless they’re in the midst / aftermath of a 4-8 season – but since they won a marquee game in such decisive fashion and appear to be a legit playoff contender, I have to do it.

USC traveled to South Bend and left sporting a 49-14 loss and, as the score suggests, the game was never close. The Irish went three-and-out on their first possession and were quickly rewarded by a lost USC fumble on their first play from scrimmage. They tacked on two touchdowns in rapid succession after that, and USC responded with their first sustained drive of the game – the Trojans got the ball into the red zone and, on third down, ND was called for a defensive holding penalty, but USC wasn’t awarded the automatic first down. They were stopped on third-and-one and shanked the subsequent field goal attempt. It was that kind of night. Notre Dame was forced to punt on their next drive, but USC fumbled the ball away inside their own ten-yard line and the game was 21-0 and destined for two and a half quarters of garbage time.

Notre Dame was dominant on the ground yet again; they rank first nationally in rushing S&P+. As usual, QB Brandon Wimbush (116 sack-adjusted rushing yards, four total touchdowns) and RB Josh Adams (over ten yards per carry on 19 touches, three touchdowns) led the way. The two have been excellent all season and have brought the Irish to “triple-option against a team that definitely hasn’t prepped their triple-option defense well enough” levels of production. The defense and special teams forced three total turnovers, Wimbush had a few well-timed downfield completions, and it was a dominant performance overall.

At this point, it’s clear that USC was overrated entering the season: a closer than expected win over Western Michigan in the opener foreshadowed the difficulties that the Trojans have faced over the last month – they suffered their first loss to a good Washington State squad on the road by three (certainly respectable), barely survived Utah at home, and were destroyed by Notre Dame. They could still win the Pac-12 South – their games against the Arizona schools, both better than expected, over the next two weeks will go a long way in determining that division’s trajectory – but S&P+ has them as a fringe Top 25 team and that seems about right. Even if they do get to nine or ten wins (they’re 6-2 right now), it would be a disappointment relative to 2016’s excellent finish and the accompanying crescendo of offseason hype.

Anyways, back to Notre Dame. They have a loss already – a single-point defeat to Georgia in Week 2 when we didn’t realize how good both teams were – so they probably can’t afford another, especially because they don’t have a conference championship game (and a chance for an extra quality win) to look forward to. The remaining schedule is difficult: the Irish host NC State next week, travel to currently undefeated Miami two weeks after that, and finish the season with a trip out west to face Stanford. The odds that ND makes it through the rest of the season unscathed are fairly slim (S&P+ gives them a 12.3% chance), but it seems like they’re a playoff lock if they win out and could sneak in with two losses if there’s enough carnage elsewhere.

[More on the week that was after the JUMP]

I… I think it’s time to talk about the SEC.

It’s not that good. It’s a shell of its former self.

Sure, it’s strong at the top, same as it ever was. Alabama is still a ruthless, inexorable death machine – churning whichever poor fools are unlucky enough to be in the path of its maw into mulch. This week, they vaporized Ole Miss: 66-3 may not erase the memories of their two losses to the Rebels in recent years, but that Bama gave them a worse whoopin’ than what they’d give an FCS sacrifice suggests they wanted some measure of payback. Does this Death Star have a problematic exhaust port? Maybe. Will any of their regular season opponents be able to find it? Almost definitely not.

Georgia is all alone in that second tier, and with an authoritative 41-0 beatdown of Tennessee in Knoxville, the Dawgs are clearly the best team in the East and should be able to take the division to set up a matchup with Bama in the SEC Title game. Quarterback Jake Fromm pulled a Wally Pipp on Jacob Eason and UGA has been content to play it very safe in the passing game: he threw it just 15 times for 84 yards – and ran for two surprising touchdowns. The Georgia running game was excellent as usual, churning out almost three hundred yards between a cast of talented backs. The offense is functional, if unspectacular, as Smart is content to have his defense win games.

What they did to Tennessee was remarkable – from the first play, an interception by Tyrique McGhee that set up a short field for a field goal, the Bulldog defense was dominant. Some of that surely is due to the general derpiness of the Tennessee offense, which has become even worse post-DeBord, but that alone can’t explain how they got shut out at home with a few talented skill position players. The Vols had seven first downs on the game, had four turnovers, 3.5 yards per pass attempt, 2.1 yards per carry, and zero points. The Bulldog defense was amazing against Mississippi State the week before, and should be similarly excellent against the rest of their regular season schedule.

Alabama is Alabama, Georgia is quickly becoming a store-brand Alabama knockoff, and most of the rest of the league is thoroughly mediocre at best. Who’s the third-best team? It’s probably Auburn: the Tigers acquitted themselves well in a road loss to a likely playoff team in Clemson and revved up the offense on Saturday against a team with a pulse, winning 49-10 against Mississippi State (the Bulldogs are now 1-2 in blowouts over the last three weeks).

[I try to back up my #hot #take after the JUMP]