Via everybody Brandon Johns has entered the transfer portal to play his COVID year elsewhere.

Michigan F Brandon Johns Jr. is in the transfer portal, @InsideTexas has learned.@TheWolverineOn3 | @TiptonEdits | @mzenitz

— Joe Cook (@josephcook89) April 6, 2022

Though Michigan's still waiting on decisions from the rest of its frontcourt, Johns moving on is hardly surprising. Johns peaked in the 2021 playoffs as a moderately efficient, and reasonably athletic OREBbing big in injured Isaiah Livers's stead. Hopes that would lead to a breakout senior year flagged as Johns struggled as a starter then gave way to freshman Moussa Diabate at the four. His issues seemed mostly mental, and probably were not going to improve much in a sixth season. He was always easy to root for though, and Michigan fans will delight if he finds his confidence and devours mid-major competition next year.

3/24/2022 – Michigan 55, Villanova 63 – 19-15, 11-9 Big Ten, Season Over

This is not going to be a romantic post about the end of a season. Last year, yes, romance abounds. This year it's time to say good job making the best out of a bad situation and start speculating about the future. Because, well, sometimes the bear eats you:

Tonight was Michigan's worst 2-point field-goal percentage (34.9 percent) since Feb. 4, 2020 in a loss to Ohio State. Michigan played 70 games between the two performances.

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) March 25, 2022

The other stat floating around out there was Michigan going 12/29 on dunks and layups. This kind of thing has happened before, but for it to happen against a team with no real shotblocking (and to a team that was 28th in shooting at the rim nationally) is boggling. Much like the early going of the Colorado State game, it felt like every weighted coin flip came out the wrong way. Michigan would put up a shot that rolled around on the rim and faded out; Villanova would do the same and the ball would eventually decide to go in.

There are other things you can point to, of course—a silly foul by Dickinson at the end of the first half that blunted momentum, an inexplicable no call when Devante' Jones got obliterated, a banked-in three—but while those are all factors the lingering bad taste in everyone's mouth will always be about a bunch of bunnies that did not go down.

At least this feels like a spiritually appropriate way to end the season? I included a Shot Quality graph in the preview that indicated Michigan got a ton of open threes and gave up relatively few, and here's a bookend for that:

Some of that is trying to check Johnny Davis with Eli Brooks because you don't have any 6'5" guys but some of that is just shrug-worthy. Michigan finished the season as a 7th percentile team defending pull-ups, and this was an improvement from that point midseason when they were 1st percentile. The whole damn season was getting good shots and losing to bad shots.

Maybe "bad" should get scare quotes in the previous sentence, because this season forces you to reconsider previous fatwas against mid-range jumpers and the role of athleticism in contesting shots. Since you can get a pull-up on just about every possession having an opposition floor that high is devastating, particularly when you're still in the deep 300s when it comes to forcing turnovers. On the other hand, that hideous performance on pull-ups is 0.9 PPP, ie, still not great. Michigan is getting teams to shoot from the right places; they just needed to have a legion of 6'5"-6'9" NBA wing types to maximize their results. Like, you know, last year.

In the end this was a team with significant flaws we glossed over because of the expectation Caleb Houstan would play like a top 10 overall prospect. This was wrong not only because Houstan played like a typical freshman but because it ignored that we weren't just replacing Isaiah Livers but also Franz Wagner and Chaundee Brown. Those guys got replaced by nothing resembling an NBA wing, and since the schedule was stacked back to front with productive wing types the defense went off a cliff.

Even so they improved over the course of the year, battled through the third-toughest schedule in America, made the tourney, made the Sweet 16, and set the table for next season, give or take a lot of knife-edge NBA decisions. Michigan got great shots and forced bad ones, further confirming that Juwan Howard is "that dude," as the children say. Hit the portal and acquire the most Chaundee-like thing you can find and further success beckons.

After three strong performances, particularly on the defensive end, the Wolverines came crashing down after a strong first half in East Lansing. A lackluster win over Nebraska actually resulted in Michigan dropping 10 spots on Kenpom while the NET rankings now place Michigan at 53.

THREE UP

Hunter Dickinson, good at the basketball. Single game +/- may be the most fraudulent metric in basketball, but Dickinson's +18 in 23 minutes of action certainly came with a heavy dose of truth syrup. I don't think it's exaggeration to say that Michigan may have lost by 20 points but for his efforts.

To put his recent play in context, during conference play Hunter is averaging 20.6 points, 7.6 rebounds. 2.8 assists and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting a tad under 60% from the floor and 31.3% from distance.

We're talking about a legit 7-footer with an assist rate of 20.2% and that's underselling his playmaking chops. The consistent skip passes he deals out that create the advantages that lead to assists aren't even captured by the metrics. He's not perfect, but he has been dominant and we've needed every bit of it. 

A win is still a win. The win over Nebraska wasn't pretty by any means, but it keeps tournament hopes alive when the alternative was functionally a lost season. Teams win ugly games all the time during conference play (see MSU vs Maryland yesterday), so never apologize for a conference victory.

That said, the team's play this year hasn't provided much hope for improvement exclusive of the aforementioned three-game stretch. But, that win does keep us alive to fight for another day. While sustained improvement (namely defense) may not seem likely, it buys the coaching staff time to get this thing right. A win in either of the upcoming contests against Purdue in tandem with a home win over OSU likely puts the Wolverines on the right side of the bubble. This win gives Juwan Howard and staff that opportunity. 

DeVante Jones, slowly coming along. Michigan's starting floor general isn't a star, but he's become an adequate offensive player after a rough start. 10.2 points and 4 assists per game with a 2.5/1 assist/turnover ratio during B10 play is solid play for an up-transfer.

Jones is the best ballscreen creator on the roster by a wide margin, as the Wolverines put up .99ppp on pick-and-roll possessions (including passes), which is good for 80th percentile nationally per Synergy. He's not a guy that can get a bucket in late-clock scenarios and has no pull-up game absent a ton of space, but he can get Michigan clean looks as both a scorer/playmaker when he has a ballscreen.

[AFTER THE JUMP, let's talk about the defense]