2017-18 purdue

Things discussed:

• Hit some threes with some weird guys. Michigan’s matchups vs MSU are all too good. Can’t cover up Winston’s defensive deficiencies the way Michigan spaces you.
• Michigan’s coaching is so good
• Won Nebraska with defense; didn’t like that we kept going at Roby and he was awesome. Wagner’s best game other than 27 points at Breslin?
• Michigan starts the 2nd half vs Purdue with a 10-2 run after missing great shots in the first half. Purdue was one step behind Beilein all night. Painter is a great coach too.
• Bridges turns into a jump shooter because Yaklich put Z on him. It’s not a switch! He wasn’t able to stick in the post despite MSU trying to run their offense through him.
• State came into the game trying to punk Michigan, turned out they were the softer team.
• What do we not want to face: zone teams. Good zone attack plan but not enough rise up shooters. Every time they face it they need time to adjust. Good draws: West Virginia (see: the VCU game in 2013), Virginia, teams that have a traditional post. Bad draws: Duke, UNC, Nova. Don’t want a Michigan-ish team.
• There’s no favorite in this tournament. If Virginia didn’t have a history of flaming out at least.
• Yaklich effect: 43rd percentile in P&R defense to 92nd!!
• Craig: Zavier Simpson, best defensive point guard at Michigan since Alfred Ethelwulfsson, maybe the best ever.
• Free throwin’: Z is up to 60% since his new routine, Matthews 65% in his last 30.
• Can we play in Detroit? It’s possible.

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Audioboom.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?

They’ve got a permanent chip on their shoulder and its name is Zavier Simpson

pic.twitter.com/Weo1LMjURt

— Bryan Mac (non-seasonal) (@Bry_Mac) January 26, 2018

Sometimes you face a normal foe. Sometimes you face a fleet of T-Rexes in F-15s firing with maximum precision. When facing the latter, especially in their territory, the margin for error is terrifyingly thin.

For the better part of 40 minutes, Michigan held their own with the Purdue T-Rexes in F-15s, with Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman playing the role of dinosaur hunter. A MAAR three-point strike, part of a scorching second-half start for both teams, even gave the road underdogs a lead with under ten minutes to play. It was the game's 23rd lead change.

Vince Edwards countered for the 24th and final lead change. T-Rexes in F-15s are unrelenting; Michigan's few mistakes finally exposed them late. Some turnovers from Jaaron Simmons or Charles Matthews here, some missed free throws from MAAR or Zavier Simpson there, and the T-Rexes successfully repelled the rebel forces.

I've very much enjoyed watching Michigan-Purdue basketball games. I'm also very much ready for all those dudes to graduate and Carsen Edwards to go pro.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Moe vs. Drago IV [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE US

Michigan's trip to face a white-hot Purdue squad represents something of a no-lose situation for the Wolverines. Neither the fancystat sites nor Vegas give Michigan much of a shot to win this one.

According to Bart Torvik's tourneycast, a loss would keep Michigan at their current standing as a projected 8-seed. A win, meanwhile, would shoot them all the way up to the 5-seed line. Barring a deep conference tourney run, this is easily M's best shot at getting off the dreaded 8/9 line and even get a little wiggle room to stay off of it. It'd also keep Michigan in contention for a rather shocking Big Ten regular season title; a loss almost certainly knocks them out of the race.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan was on the brink of handing Purdue their only conference loss until the Zaprudering.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	11	PJ Thompson	Sr.	5'10, 185	69	13	137	Not At All
Very efficient, low-usage PG. Hitting 51% of threes. Strong defender.
G	3	Carsen Edwards	So.	6'0, 190	68	28	119	Not At All
B1G's most improved. Shot creator who's greatly improved finishing.
G	31	Dakota Mathias	Sr.	6'4, 200	76	19	129	Not At All
Three-point sniper, also threat inside arc, good passer when D overcommits.
F	12	Vincent Edwards	Sr.	6'8, 225	75	24	122	Not At All
Does a bit of everything on offense, good defender.
C	44	Isaac Haas	Sr.	7'2, 290	54	26	122	Very
Behemoth. Strong post scorer, rebounder, shot-blocker.
C	32	Matt Haarms	Fr.	7'3, 250	46	16	109	Very
Low-usage Haas, basically. Some offensive dropoff but none on defense.
G	14	Ryan Cline	Jr.	6'5, 190	46	14	118	Not At All
Just A Shooter™, makes 41% of his threes.
G	20	Nojel Eastern	Fr.	6'6, 220	32	19	88	Yes
Big combo guard at best around hoop. Hits the glass. Turnover-prone.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]