2017-18 penn state
1 hour and 38 minutes
We are at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, which now is the time to book those rooms for football next year because those fill up.
We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other
We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan there would be VERY long hiatuses between podcasts.
Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, Lantana Hummus and new this week introducing Ecotelligent Homes
---------------------------------
1. Hoopscast
starts at 1:00
Zavier Simpson erased Tony Carr gnat style, Mo Wagner three that re-tied swung the game from a loss to a win. Yaklich has magnificently moneyballed this defense, forcing opponents into the least efficient shots, e.g. M funnels the ball to the post. Twice in a row Beilein has gotten a DC from a defensive mid-major that’s outplaying their level. Bench guys are developing well.
2. Big Ten Tourney, Hardware and Bracketology
starts at 35:12
A continuation of our This Week’s Obsession yesterday. Who’s the best center in the league (since the league didn’t name one)? When you watch MSU you’re most terrified of JJJ. Penn State always has a 2nd team all-conference two guard and nobody else. Z got robbed; when the only guards who have good games are dudes making bad ideas…
Brackets: UM up to a six, should probably stick there if they get 1-1 in the BTT. If they face MSU maybe a five. Win the thing: fourth seed in Detroit? Would love to face West Virginia, Cincinnati.
3. Drevno and the FBI
starts at 58:15
Drevno got axed in the most dignified way: Michigan tried to find him a landing spot but nobody took him. Warinner thing all makes sense now. Warinner: “Never leave that double until you smell the linebacker’s breath.” OSU’s offense was much more power and counter so it’s not a spread misfit. Got an OL commit in the meantime. Maybe they can pick up a stunt.
Go FBI! Correlation between the wanton NCAA rule-breaking and program cultures that hide actually heinous things. The spreadsheet is just the tip of the iceberg—there are plenty of other agencies out there operating this way. Adopt NHL draft/Olympic amateurism models. Base rookie wage scale on age so players aren’t incentivized to leave early/franchises aren’t incentivized to rush them out of school.
4. Ace’s Hockey Podcast wsg Ace Anbender (also David Nasternak)
starts at 1:22:50
Why are we in Fargo and Allentown two years in a row? The penalty kill is atrocious—don’t know if they can fix it this year. Any series win against Wisconsin probably puts them in the tournament. Outplayed in previous four games except for when goalie things went haywire. Even Ace has fond opinions on Quinn Hughes—one of his favorite things to do is pass it from the blue line then immediately asks for it back; shades of Jordan Leopold going Bobby Orr, and some Michigan examples Brian can sometimes pronounce.
---------------------------------
MUSIC:
- “Rock Steady”—The Whispers
- “Get Up & Get Down”—The Dramatics
- “It Hurts Until It Doesn’t”—The Mothers
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music?
you don’t want to see this is jordan poole for mr. spots? come on!
2/21/2018 – Michigan 72, Penn State 63 – 23-7, 12-5 Big Ten
temporary demon [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Everyone just stood around, afterward, wondering what to do. The gobsmacked victim fell over and laid on the ground. A ball newly loosed into the world at large bounced, and bounced. By the time someone decided to acquire it and maybe continue on with the basketball game and the universe writ large, one of the refs had regained his senses sufficiently to bring a halt to proceedings.
For processing. For reflection. For meditation, and a resolve to continue.
The universe is a simulation and one of our minders spilled coffee on the very strange, very red, very unnecessary switch on subpanel 3F-B that reads DUNCAN ROBINSON on one end and DIKEMBE MUTOMBO on the other. Nobody in that universe knew what it did or who those people are. They refused to touch it, for good reason. Once they saw the nonsense that resulted from flipping it they swiftly restored things back to a known good state.
Such was the time in 2018 where Duncan Robinson blocked the soul out of one of his opponents. These were the events, and the proffered explanation. The explanation was clearly insane but since all other attempts were equally insane—if not more so—people let it slide.
We will not mention the part where Robinson calmly glides inside the line and knocks down three critical shots, because that glitch might be sufficiently non-obvious to get away with. It's like Stauskas! That's the ticket! Please leave Duncan Robinson in this known good state instead of some other known not-so-good states. He has always been like this, we promise. That is his line, and it works.
---------------------------------------------------
There was a point in the second half when Penn State tried to post Robinson up, again, and my reaction was relief. In part this is because Penn State's players post up with the elegance of a capsized hippopotamus, sure. But also Duncan Robinson is an average-ish post defender and post offense that doesn't demand a double team usually sucks.
Having these background facts coalesce into an honest-to-God feeling was the season's weirdest revelatory moment. Duncan Robinson is defending, and I feel fine. Duncan Robinson is lining up for a transition three dagger, and I feel better.
The thunderous matrix glitch later was only fitting. Michigan weathered one of their unfortunate-but-now-trademark scoring droughts because their defense gave it to Penn State all game, holding the hottest team in the country to under a point per possession.
At first this was largely Zavier Simpson putting his face in Tony Carr's chest, all but removing him from a half of basketball. Once it became clear that Penn State had made the requisite adjustments to get Carr some shots, Michigan moved to a 2-3 zone that started off goofy but morphed into a contested-jumper machine that protected the Robinson/Poole combination that Michigan needed to score any points. Carr only managed to scrape into the green very late when he banged in a couple of raise-up threes during the semi-competitive free throw shooting section of the contest.
That's a gameplan win, especially since Penn State's bizarre solution to the problem Michigan's defense poses was to have first Mike Watkins—who is a good player but gets 80% of his buckets at the rim thanks to someone tossing him an assist—and then his backups—who are jabronis—repeatedly post up. The only buckets that came off this action were a couple of heavily contested jumpers that looked about as likely to go in as a Zavier Simpson skyhook; like the skyhook they did go in. But not very frequently.
Michigan has a defense that causes pretty decent teams to go off script in odd ways in an attempt to deal with it, and no galactic six-eyed goggle beast appears to be on the verge of flipping Michigan back to their old reality. That gives them a shot against anyone.
BULLETS
if this was in the first five minutes it's worth ten points [Campredon]
First Wagner three theory: confirmed. Michigan's first possession was a Wagner corner three swish, which led to a 10 for 21 performance from deep. For his part Wagner was 4/5. I am not sure if I'm serious about this or not now.
A bit later people got frustrated because Wagner was turning open-ish threes into drives that didn't end well; I sort of shared that frustration but also thought that Penn State had some exceptional help defense blocks on drives that were otherwise easy buckets. They probably took 8 points off the board by coming out of nowhere to swat stuff that was about to be At Rim.
Free throws, our good and true friends. You and everyone else thought "here we go again" when MAAR, Michigan's best FT shooter who ever goes to the line, missed both on Michigan's first trip. Michigan was 16/17 the rest of the way. Matthews and Simpson combining for two FTAs was helpful there.
Michigan's all the way up to... uh... 329th in FT%. Movin' on up!
Shot volume... deficit? Yes. Michigan had 12 TOs to PSU's 10 and lost OREBS by 3. (Largely because PSU had 5 "team" OREBs that are almost always luck; also one of those looked like a horrendous call.) I think that's why the game felt like such a failure slog. At this point in my Michigan basketball observation career anything approximating a TO-heavy game feels like the end of the world.
Charles Matthews is broken. I don't know what else to say. You have to keep playing him because you need him to break out of his funk if at all possible. At this point he should probably get a quick hook if he starts off like he did in this game. When he is in he's got to slow it down. There's no way he should have 28, 25, 28, 24, 25, 27, and 27 usage numbers in his last seven games. It's one thing to have a struggling guy on the floor. It's another when he's your highest usage player. Downshift to sophomore GRIII and try to build back up from there.
In which I risk the wrath of Ace. Jordan Poole had another good game, and a desperately needed one what with the previous bullet point.
But, if I may lodge a slight protest: he's too much of a heat check dude right now. He gambled for a steal in the second half, missing it and opening up Michigan's defense for an easy Carr three; a bit later he and Duncan Robinson had a two on one break where Poole challenged a defender unsuccessfully instead of setting up his teammate for a layup. His decision making seems stuck on THIS WOULD BE AWESOME. This leads in equal parts to awesome things and freshman things.
In which I try to patch things up with Ace. ON THE OTHER HAND
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to #WhyJumpWednesday. @umichbball freshman @JordanPoole_2 snatches a defender's soul on this slam, and it's a #BTNStandout Presented by @Discover: pic.twitter.com/GVB64H6GbU
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) February 22, 2018
I'd rather have a guy with too much swag trying to dial it back a little than a guy you have to swag up. Enswaggen. Fortify with Vitamin Swag. You get the idea.
Another reason to root for Penn State. Michigan gets the four seed and a double bye if they beat Maryland and Penn State wins in Lincoln. That is a good reason to root for Penn State.
Another one: I have been sloppy in my assumption that a top 25 Kenpom team is top 75 in RPI. Penn State is not. They were 76th before yesterday. They currently sit 85th, because RPI is mostly a SOS metric and Penn State's SOS is an abomination. This makes them a quadrant 2 team. A win over Nebraska and maybe a couple in the BTT would likely make them Q1, at least on the road. Nobody else on Michigan's schedule is particularly near the Q1 cliff, FWIW.
I'm going to assume the guy left out the caveat. The over/under on NCAA tournament games that are later vacated is 10, as the agent the FBI nailed was taking notes. Very much notes:
“There are spreadsheets detailing who got paid, how much they got paid and how much more they were planning to pay,” said a source familiar with the investigation. “The feds got everything they wanted and much more. Don’t think it will only be players who ended up signing with ASM that got paid. Those spreadsheets cast a wide net throughout college basketball. If your school produced a first-round pick in the past three years, be worried.”
I'm assuming "and your coach isn't John Beilein" was too obvious to mention.
Penn State really needed a big win to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, and Michigan’s trip to Happy Valley on Senior Day gave them a great opportunity to ease their way up the bubble. Michigan played excellent defense in the first half and built a sizable lead, which was quickly erased by Tony Carr and Lamar Stevens early in the second half. The Wolverines responded, mixed in some different 2-3 defenses that threw Penn State off balance, and a couple Moe Wagner threes helped Michigan pull out to a lead that they wouldn’t relinquish. Solid free throw shooting down the stretch (9-10 on intentional fouls) staved off a Nittany Lion comeback and Michigan escaped with one of its best wins of the season against a desperate team that was on a hot streak.
Despite a few indifferent late-game possessions. Carr and Stevens - arguably the best guard in the conference and a very capable sidekick - scored 40 points combined, but it took them 39 shot equivalents to do it. Carr was held in check in the first half with solid defense from Zavier Simpson and timely double-teams; he knocked down a few threes of varying difficulty and got to the rim in the second half - finishing with a 21 point, 5 rebound, 6 assist line. Stevens was often guarded by Duncan Robinson when Michigan played man-to-man, and Robinson made him work for many of his points; the Wolverines initially allowed him too much room in the middle of the zone, but adjusted to harass him into a couple key mistakes.
No other Nittany Lion scored in double figures. Their best center, Mike Watkins, was injured while contesting a Charles Matthews layup, and only played five minutes on the night. That loss came early in the game, as both teams struggled to score: Michigan had five quick turnovers, and Penn State futilely tried post-ups on most possessions. Jon Teske had some impactful minutes on the defensive end in the first half after Wagner picked up his first foul. Even after Wagner returned, Penn State labored for good looks until a late burst by Stevens.
The Wolverines were able to build their initial lead with scoring off the bench from Robinson and Jordan Poole, who combined for 20 of Michigan’s 34 first half points. Robinson hit his first three-point attempt after screening and popping out of Michigan’s side curl action, had a nice cut for a layup, got Stevens to bite on a pump fake and knocked down a two-point jumper, blew by him for a layup, and hit another three. Poole made a corner three off an extra pass, had an absolutely ridiculous dunk over Julian Moore for an and-one, and got an easy transition layup. The freshman had a few rough moments, but his scoring was an upgrade over Matthews, who had his worst game of the season.
Michigan led by 13 at one point, but Penn State was much better out of the halftime break, scoring on their first four possessions: Carr got Simpson on his hip and took him to the rim for two, Michigan helped too far off Stevens for a three and gave Carr another one on a bad scramble situation, and Josh Reaves blew by Poole for a layup. Penn State took the lead before the first TV timeout, and it looked as if Michigan might get run out of the gym. John Beilein eventually turned to the zone, which was effective. The initial zone was spread too thin, but Michigan adjusted to sink into the high post when the ball was entered into Stevens.
Wagner made some big plays after that. He had made a few early threes (including one on the first possession of the game), but too often would pump-fake and drive into traffic for worse looks in the paint. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman made a play late in the shot clock to find Wagner for a corner three to break a Penn State run; shortly after, Matthews found him on the wing for another on a pick-and-pop - and instead of driving it on Stevens (a stretch-four who was guarding Wagner in a small-ball lineup), he hit a three over him. Penn State and Michigan traded buckets and stops for a while, until Wagner hit a tough layup on a drive against Moore and Poole nailed another corner three to trigger a Penn State timeout and give Michigan a 54-48 lead with seven minutes left.
Out of the timeout, Nazeer Bostick threw it right to Abdur-Rahkman in the zone, and Simpson scored an absurd swooping sky-hook over Carr on the next possession. Michigan had a few empty possessions from there, but stops on the defensive end - including Wagner drawing a charge on Stevens, Robinson emphatically rejecting a Stevens dunk, and Carr missing a couple threes - helped Michigan hold onto the lead. The Wolverines were up four with under three minutes left when Abdur-Rahkman hit a very tough layup over Reaves (maybe the best perimeter defender in the Big Ten, who helped force Abdur-Rahkman into an uncharacteristic four turnovers), Bostick missed a wild layup attempt, and Robinson hit a transition three for the dagger.
It was mostly a free throw exhibition from there: Robinson made both, Wagner made both, Simpson made one of two, Livers made both, and Poole made both. A few uncontested Penn State buckets were interspersed in there, but a comeback wasn’t possible. Michigan overcame an unusually high level of turnovers and a negative shot differential, mostly because they made 10-21 three-pointers (all but one came from Wagner, Robinson, and Poole). Robinson had a great game - in addition to his team-high 19 points, he had three blocks and a steal. Wagner put up 18 and 8 rebounds. Poole chipped in with 13 and played 26 minutes to Matthews’s 17. Simpson and Abdur-Rahkman each had their struggles against a tough defense, but each scored nine points.
Michigan’s record improved to 23-7 (12-5 in the Big Ten) and is moving its way up the seed line. They still have a chance at a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament if they beat Maryland and Penn State beats Nebraska this weekend. Even though Matthews was held scoreless, the Wolverines dribbled out the clock on the road against what was a Kenpom Top 25 team. Robinson and Abdur-Rahkman are rounding into form as their careers wind to an end, Poole has played two really good games in a row, and Moe Wagner is consistently punishing teams with the mismatches he creates. This win against Penn State was very impressive, and Michigan looks like they’ll be a very tough out in March.
Box Score after the JUMP
10