2016-17 northwestern

Chill.

Five days ago. [Bryan Fuller]

That wasn't a fun way to lose. I'll cede that point. The reaction to a one-point road loss, however painful it may have been, has still been borderline hysterical. Heading into last night, Michigan had won five of six—with the one loss a ref screw-job in Minneapolis—while moving off the NCAA tournament bubble. They have the best offense in the Big Ten by a wide margin and a defense that's steadily improving. They lost last night on a prayer of a play that was inches away from backfiring spectacularly; if Nathan Taphorn's pass flies another six inches or so, Michigan is inbounding under Northwestern's basket with a chance to win in regulation.

With a night to sleep on it, here's where things really stand: Michigan is still comfortably in the NCAA tournament field. Jerry Palm's latest bracket denotes 15 bubble teams, including Michigan State. Michigan, projected as a nine-seed, isn't one of them. Joe Lunardi dropped the Wolverines one seed line—to a nine-seed. Michigan is still an eight-seed on the Bracket Matrix, though they'll slide back to a nine as more projections are updates; that's still not on the bubble.

Illinois, a team that Penn State swept this season, has moved into the field on several projections, including Palm's. This year's bubble is really soft. If Michigan loses out, they're in danger of a nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. They have two very winnable games left: at Nebraska, a team that's never beaten Michigan since joining the Big Ten, and a neutral-site game in the BTT against a team that won't be seeded higher than ninth. KenPom gives Michigan a 63% chance to beat Nebraska. The most likely BTT scenario, a 7/10 matchup with Ohio State, gives M a 68% chance of picking up another win, per Bart Torvik's tourney simulator. That works out to a 12% chance of losing both games.

The rending of garments is premature.

[Hit THE JUMP for the final play and more.]

NORTHWESTERN HAIL MARY pic.twitter.com/w86hoHaldH

— Kyle Boone (@kylebooneCBS) March 2, 2017

A grudging but heartfelt congratulations to Northwestern for making the NCAA tournament. Dissecting this gut-punch will wait until tomorrow.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: McIntawwwww. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

A Michigan team that suddenly finds itself on firm tournament footing faces a Northwestern team that suddenly finds itself back on the bubble. The Wolverines are an eight-seed in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Wildcats, losers of five of their last seven, have fallen to the ten-seed line after looking like a dead lock heading into February. They are, after all, Northwestern.

This game has significant implications for the NCAA bubble and Big Ten Tournament seeding. Both teams are 9-7 in the Big Ten, one game behind Michigan State and Minnesota, which are tied for fourth place. Michigan can still get the four-seed and a double-bye in the conference tournament by winning out and getting some help; you can play around with the various scenarios here. The only scenario I've found that gets Michigan to the four-seed requires Minnesota to lose out (Nebraska, @Wisconsin) and Michigan State to drop one of their last two (@Illinois, @Maryland).

UPDATE THE FIRST

The BTN helpfully laid out all of the various BTT seeding scenarios:

6. Michigan (9-7)
Can be as high as #4 seed with wins in its final 2 games (at Northwestern and Nebraska) + 2 Minnesota losses + 1 MSU loss OR wins in its final 2 games + 2 MSU losses + 2 Wisconsin losses
Can’t finish higher than #6 with a loss at Northwestern tonight
Could fall as low as #8 with 2 losses + tiebreakers

UPDATE THE SECOND

The line has moved to Michigan -2 after opening at Northwestern -1.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	30	Bryant McIntosh	Jr.	6'3, 185	85	27	99	Yes
Good distributor. Takes lots of tough shots, occasionally makes them.
G	20	Scottie Lindsey	Jr.	6'5, 210	67	23	109	Kinda
NW's leading scorer in slump since midseason bout with mono.
F	4	Vic Law	So.	6'7, 205	81	21	104	Not At All
Solid defender, rebounder, and outside shooter. Only making 35% of twos.
F	34	Sanjay Lumpkin	Sr.	6'6, 220	70	11	127	Kinda
Low-usage garbageman type. Iffy outside shot.
C	5	Dererk Pardon	So.	6'8, 235	56	14	121	Very
Strong finisher, rebounder, and shot-blocker. Plays 70% of mins when healthy.
F	44	Gavin Skelly	Jr.	6'8, 225	47	19	111	Kinda
Gets offensive boards and blocks. Struggling to finish, turnover- and foul-prone.
G	12	Isiah Brown	Fr.	6'2, 175	41	27	90	Yes
Like McIntosh, but without the assists.
F	32	Nathan Taphorn	Sr.	6'7, 215	28	16	127	Not At All
Just A Shooter™, hits 45% of his threes.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]