2016-17 nebraska



I prefer the shot on the left. So does Beilein. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

After the Nebraska evisceration, I wanted to take a closer look at something we discussed on this week's podcast. Michigan generated 12 more three-point attempts than the Huskers, which added to the growing pile of statistical evidence that the Wolverines have undergone a fundamental shift—not on offense, but on defense. John Beilein gave the money quote on it after the Purdue game:

We’ve made a conscious decision to defend the three-point line, knowing that a tough two is much better to give up than an open three, which we were giving up like crazy in our earlier struggles.

The key number to look at is 3PA/FGA: the percentage of each team's field goal attempts that come from beyond the arc. The offense is shooting threes at the usual Beilein offense rate: 45.3%, 16th nationally. Before this year, Beilein's Michigan defenses haven't been good at preventing opponent three-point looks; his best finish in 3PA/FGA was 108th in 2014, and most of his M teams have been in the 200 range.

This season, Michigan opponents are attempting just 29.0% of their field goals from beyond the arc. That puts the Wolverines tenth in the country.

The shift in defensive philosophy, likely a product of adding Billy Donlon to the staff, has created a massive gap in points generated from the three-point line between Michigan and their opponents. Critically, the Wolverines aren't forcing shots to make it happen. I put together a video of Michigan's three-point attempts (two garbage-time attempts excised) against Nebraska with freeze-frames just before the point of release; there are only a couple questionable shots among the 25:

I did the same for Nebraska's shots. While they had a few wide open looks, Michigan did a much better job of closing out on Husker shooters than vice versa, and that's not even the most telling part of this video—that would be the length of the video itself. What's not in there is the number of times Michigan defenders ran potential shooters off the line, forcing them to take those tough twos instead.

Even if Nebraska had hit their open looks, they had little hope of keeping up with Michigan's offense. Their second three-point attempt of the game came with under five minutes left in the first half; by that point, M had opened up a 20-point lead while shooting 8-for-12 on triples.

As conference champion Purdue found out, it's hard to close the three-point gap on Michigan with two-pointers, even when they're going in at a relatively high rate. It helps, of course, that Beilein's offense also generates great looks inside the arc; Michigan is 12th nationally in two-point percentage. This leaves opponents in a bind. Do they try to match Michigan three-for-three, even though the Wolverines have superior shooters to almost any team they face? Or do they run their normal offense and hope to either hit twos at a remarkable rate or get an off game from Michigan's shooters?

I'm not sure there's a good answer.

[Hit THE JUMP to see the numbers behind the three-point gap.]

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #27 Michigan (19-11, 9-8 B1G) at

#94 Nebraska (12-17, 6-11)
WHERE Pinnacle Bank Arena

Lincoln, Nebraska
WHEN 8 pm ET, Sunday
LINE Michigan -4 (KenPom)

Michigan -5 (Vegas)
TV BTN

PBP: Kevin Kugler

Analyst: Shon Morris

Right: Nobody played much defense in the first matchup. [Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]

THE US

On the last day of the regular season, there's still plenty to be determined regarding Big Ten Tournament seeding. The other two games to keep an eye on today are Iowa-PSU (1 pm, BTN) and Purdue-Northwestern (4:30 pm, CBS). Michigan may very well be locked into the eight-seed by the time tonight's game tips off, but there's a chance they can move up as high as the six-seed:

8. Michigan (9-8)

Locked into single bye, will play on Thursday no matter what

Clinches #6 seed with win at Nebraska + Northwestern win + Iowa loss

Clinches #7 seed with win + Northwestern loss + Iowa loss

Clinches #8 seed with loss OR Iowa win 

As for the NCAA Tournament picture, Michigan is holding onto a nine-seed on most projections, including Jerry Palm's and Joe Lunardi's, and they're an eight-seed on Crashing The Dance. ESPN's Eamonn Brennan is on the verge of moving the Wolverines into lock territory:

We thought about locking in the Spartans and the Wolverines alongside Northwestern, but where the Wildcats have just a home date against Purdue left on their regular-season schedule -- plus a guaranteed 10-8 conference record even if they lose -- Michigan travels to Nebraska for its regular-season closer Sunday. A loss would add another sub-top-50 loss to the Wolverines' resume, as well as set them back to 9-9 in league play. Again: Michigan should be in. It almost certainly will get in. But we're just, you know, being careful.

Win and they're in. Lose and they're probably still in, especially since Illinois is locked into the BTT nine-seed; Bart Torvik's BTT simulator says Michigan would have a 70% chance of winning that 8/9 matchup.

THE LAST TIME

In the first game after the Illinois debacle and subsequent players-only meeting, Michigan didn't exactly fix their defense, but they came out on top anyway in a 91-85 shootout at Crisler. Moe Wagner, Derrick Walton, and Zak Irvin all scored 20+ for Michigan, while Tai Webster (28) and Glynn Watson (22) shouldered the load for the Huskers. Notably, Nebraska was missing forward Ed Morrow due to a foot injury; he's been back in the lineup for the last six games.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Glynn Watson So. 6'0, 175 78 21 110 Not At All
Excellent three-point and free-throw shooter, not a great finisher.
G 0 Tai Webster Sr. 6'4, 195 87 28 102 Not really
Big, aggressive point guard shoots 47/30/75 with high FT rate.  
G 11 Evan Taylor Jr. 6'5, 206 60 13 91 Very
Inefficient, low-usage scorer with high turnover rate. Defensive specialist.
F 12 Michael Jacobson So. 6'9, 230 62 16 101 Very
Good offensive rebounder, poor finisher, disruptive defender.
C 32 Jordy Tshimanga Fr. 6'11, 275 30 27 86 Very
Big impact on boards, has a ways to go on offense. Frequently in foul trouble.
F 10 Jack McVeigh So. 6'8, 215 55 15 108 No
Stretch four type shooting 38% on threes in B1G play.
F 30 Ed Morrow So. 6'7, 234 44 23 101 Very
Good rebounder and shot-blocker. Inconsistent finisher since injury.
F 15 Isaiah Roby Fr. 6'8, 214 35 17 82 Very
Good shot-blocker, really struggling on offense.
F 2 Jeriah Horne Fr. 6'7, 222 26 19 98 Not really
Just A Shooter™ type is making 33% of threes, 47% of twos.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

The Defense, For A Given Definition Of The Term



Slicing through M's defense with little resistance. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Do you have a stick? Throw it. Congratuations, you have hit a horrifying Michigan defensive stat.

The Wolverines may have pulled out a victory against a Nebraska team playing without its only viable post player, but they didn't do it by solving any of their problems on defense; the Huskers scored 1.21 points per possession, a hair below the average performance against M's defense in conference play. Michigan is now 185th in adjusted defensive efficiency; their worst finish under John Beilein was 120th in his first year in Ann Arbor.

Through five conference games, Michigan has the worst Big Ten defense by 8.9 points per 100 possessions; B1G opponents are making 52.7% of their twos and 55.3%(!!!) of their threes—and they're rebounding 34.7% of their misses. Michigan is great at not fouling and above-average at stealing the ball; they're somewhere between below-average and terrible at everything else.

Dylan has a post today that goes into further, gruesome detail on Michigan's defense, with one area of focus being the collapse of their pick-and-roll defense:

Michigan’s pick-and-roll defense has completely fallen apart. In the last six games, the Wolverines have allowed .986 points per possession (including pass outs) in the pick-and-roll game. Compared to seasonal numbers across Division I, that would rank 336th nationally.

Only the first half of the Nebraska game is available on the YouTubes, which is probably for the best. This actually came out better than I expected and it's still far from good:

The issue, as Dylan mentions in his post, doesn't appear to be the scheme; no matter how Michigan approaching defending the high screen—usually either with a soft hedge or ICE technique—they're allowing baskets because of individual player breakdowns. Passes into the post, like in the first play, are too easy to make. Blown rotations, like in the second, lead to wide open three-point attempts. Michigan commits the cardinal sin of allowing the P&R ballhandler to split the hedge at the 0:34 mark, something that occurred at least once more in the second half.

They did a little better towards the end of the half, as you can see in the video, but I also forgot to include this abomination:

It was more of the same in the second half. There are two common threads: Michigan has zero rim protection, which allows opponents to attack without fear, and their help/rotation off the ball is awful. I grew up on the suffocating team defense of the mid-aughts Pistons. This is the opposite of that. The problems are so widespread that it's impossible to suggest one or two solutions that could turn things around.

[After THE JUMP: That said...]