2014-15 northwestern #2

Dustin Johnston/UMHoops

The result last night, and the fashion Michigan got there, was no doubt painful. Lost in the insanity and disappointment, however, were several encouraging signs for the future. Since Brian covered the coaching stuff in today's mailbag, my focus for today will mostly be on the bright side of life.

BUT FIRST, NIT OUTLOOK. So, yeah, that obviously wasn't ideal. DRatings updated their NIT bracketology today, putting Michigan as the second six-seed. A home win over Rutgers isn't likely to change much there (a loss would obviously be a huge blow), which puts Michigan perilously close to the edge:

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

DRatings currently has ten teams below Michigan projected to make the NIT field. Hold onto your butts.

ZAK IRVIN, EVOLVING. For much of the season, Zak Irvin has been a source of disappointment. If Caris LeVert was supposed to step into Nik Stauskas' shoes, Irvin was supposed to step into LeVert's, becoming this year's guy to add a ton to his game and set himself up for lead dog status/early entry discussion.

It didn't happen right away, but take a look at Irvin's last six games:

	Points	2PM/2PA	3PM/3PA	FTM/FTA	OR	DR	AST	TO
Indiana	23	6/11	3/5	2/5	0	2	2	1
Illinois	8	1/5	2/7	0/0	1	7	1	1
MSU	16	3/7	3/7	1/3	0	3	0	1
OSU	15	3/5	3/7	0	1	6	4	0
Maryland	15	2/4	2/6	5/5	0	3	3	4
Northwestern	28	5/9	3/8	9/10	1	10	3	2
TOTAL (Avg.)	105 (17.5)	20/41 (49%)	16/40 (40%)	17/23 (74%)	3 (0.5)	31 (5.2)	13 (2.2)	9 (1.5)

Now think about this: Irvin didn't make more than three two-pointers in any game his freshman year—and he only did that twice—and other than the opener against D-II Hillsdale he hadn't made more than four this season until the Indiana game. He had five last night, mostly on NBA-level pullup looks that he generated with surprising ease:

Over the last month, Irvin has raised the bar from top-flight supporting player to potential go-to guy on a good team, and that's a huge step. He's developing moves that reliably get him to the basket—he's incorporating the shot fake, for instance, which is particularly effective given his shooting ability—and he's both finishing and getting to the line more often.

[Hit THE JUMP for more Irvin and a look at the development of three freshmen.]

The good news: Zak Irvin is going to be really good. Aubrey Dawkins isn't too bad, either.

The bad news: The rest of that happened.

I'm going to bed.

#TeamFoul

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Rahk had nine points on seven shots in the first matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Derrick Walton is still expected to sit out, though he did at least travel to Maryland on Saturday.

THE LAST TIME

Thanks to a strong all-around performance by Caris LeVert and a missed layup by Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh on the game's final possession, Michigan escaped with a 56-54 win at Crisler back in mid-January. A solid outing from Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman covered for the absence of a sick Spike Albrecht. The efforts of those two and Derrick Walton—who hit some timely threes—were just enough to overcome a 22-point game from Wildcats center Alex Olah.

On that fateful final play, LeVert came up limping. We'd soon learn he was out for the rest of the season. Michigan, 4-2 in the conference after the win, has gone 3-7 since.

THE STAKES

This is close to a must-win for Michigan if they want to get into the NIT. While a losing record no longer automatically disqualifies a team from making the NIT, no such team has been selected; Michigan would need to beat Rutgers and win the 8/9 game in the Big Ten Tournament just to get back to .500. (I don't believe the NIT counts the victory over Hillsdale, a D-II team.) That wouldn't necessarily guarantee Michigan gets in—they'd probably have to pull a huge upset over Wisconsin in the next round to lock down a spot.

Needless to say, the path to the NIT is a whole lot easier if Michigan wins the remaining two regular season games. At that point, they'd probably only need to win one game in the conference tournament to feel good about their postseason standing.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	SIBMIHHAT
G	30	Bryant McIntosh	Fr.	6'3, 177	85	24	No
Decent scorer, high assist rate. Not remarkably efficient, but can create.
G	14	Tre Demps	Jr.	6'3, 198	82	24	Not really
Takes a ton of shots but isn't a great shooter: 48/33/65 2P/3P/FT%.
G/F	20	Scottie Lindsey	Fr.	6'5, 175	41	15	No
Low usage, mostly out there for defense. Struggling with shot.
F	34	Sanjay Lumpkin	So.	6'6, 220	85	10	Not Really
Minuscule usage, efficiency has plummeted in B1G play. Meh rebounder.
C	22	Alex Olah	Jr.	7'0, 270	72	25	Yes
Good rebounder, shot-blocker. Not a great finisher, but has range.
F	4	Vic Law	Fr.	6'7, 185	53	20	Not really
Good defender, rebounder whose offensive game is still developing.
G	23	JerShon Cobb	Sr.	6'5, 208	36	15	No
Spot-up shooter (36% 3P) missed last six games due to injury. Questionable.
F	32	Nathan Taphorn	So.	6'7, 215	20	18	No
Hitting 59% of twos and 50% of threes in limited opportunities.

THE RESUME

Northwestern's loss to Michigan was their fourth defeat in what would become a ten-game losing streak—they didn't win a game between December 30th and February 15th. The Wildcats then ripped off four straight wins, beating Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State (60-39!), and Indiana; three of those came at home. Most recently, they got crushed at Illinois.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]