Sickos rejoice! The first preseason SP+ rankings are out.
What, you thought I’d let an SP+ ranking slip by without reporting on it? Maybe you thought I’d spare you the details of pre-pre-season rankings that come out before spring practice, spring portal roster changes, or any meaningful results on the field? Not a chance. I live for this shit. And if you’re being honest with yourself, you do too.
Anyway, this is only for fun. As with all preseason polls, the rankings are made up and the (SP+) points don’t matter.
So let’s do this, shall we?
PRELIMINARIES
As Connelly notes, the SP+ preseason data are based on three components:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you're pretty far down the projections road.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- into the recruiting rankings part as well.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?
SP+ TOP 25 RANKINGS
Drumroll…
We bid a top 25 farewell to Washington. Has any team gone from runner-up in the CFB Playoff to unranked (currently #29) in the following preseason?
And welcome to the era of the Power 2 conferences. The SEC and the B1G combined claim:
- all of the top 5 teams
- 9 of the top 10 teams
- 13 of the top 15 teams
- 15 of the top 25 teams
For anyone that wants to keep track at home, here’s the top 25 distribution by conference:
- SEC: 9
- B1G: 6
- Big 12: 5
- ACC: 4
And then there’s Notre Dame, the Switzerland of college football. I just don’t get it. Storied conferences have fallen as college football moves toward a new era of bipolarity. Teams have been left scrambling to find new conferences they can call home. Others attempt to rebuild a conference on the smoldering ashes of the one that just burned to the ground. And yet somehow Notre Dame survives as an independent. 🤷♂️
Anyway, back to the conferences that matter…
That's going to take some time to get used to.
Here’s a closer look at the new improved B1G for anyone that’s interested.
Congratulations, MSU! You have not only dethroned Iowa as the worst offense in the B1G, but you are also projected to be the worst P5 offense in the nation. You currently sit at #126 (out of 134 FBS teams), and your nearest P5 peers come in at #116, #115, #108, and #102. Those teams? Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, and Indiana. That’s right, the B1G is projected to have the 5 worst P5 offenses in the nation.
Thank God for USC, right?.
Here’s a graph showing the SP+ offense and defense ratings for all P5 teams. The standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Want to see something fun? Just look at all of that blue in the bottom-right quadrant. And then find USC. The B1G blue-bloods vs. the B1G new bloods in a nutshell.
(Glancing at the bottom-left quadrant): Hey Big 12, how’d that expansion work out for you?
A LOOK AT B1G SCHEDULES
With the expanded B1G (B1Gger!), it might also be interesting to look at conference scheduling. The first graphs look at the average opponent SP+ rating for each B1G team. I’ve looked at this in two different ways to account for the non-FBS opponents on the schedules.
- The left side takes into account only P5 opponents.
- The right side attempts to adjust for non-FBS opponents. Since the current SP+ doesn’t have any rankings for non-FBS teams, I substituted Kent State’s SP+ rating in place of the FBS opponents. Kent St. is the #133 (out of 134) ranked team in SP+, and also happens to be the weakest FBS team on any B1G schedule, so using their SP+ rating seems like an appropriate penalty.*
Based on the unadjusted scores, Michigan has the 6th most difficult schedule in the B1G. After docking teams for playing FBS opponents, it moves up to #4. In either case, its average opponent has a rating of 7.7, which would be equivalent to the #35 team to SP+ (Kansas). OSU has either the 3rd (unadjusted) or 5th (adjusted) weakest schedule. Their average opponent would be the equivalent of the #46 team (Texas Tech).
The next graphs show how the schedules shake out for each team. Horizontal lines are average opponent SP+ ratings using the adjusted values.
It looks like Iowa, Penn St., and Nebraska won the B1G scheduling lottery, only having to face OSU. Somehow, Rutgers is the only team that managed to skip all of the top B1G teams. And they have Akron and Howard as OOC opponents.
* If you’re curious, the non-FBS opponents on B1G schedules are: E. Illinois (Illinois), Illinois St. (Iowa), Villanova (Maryland), Prairie View A&M (MSU), Rhode Island (Minnesota), N. Iowa (Nebraska), E. Illinois (Northwestern), Indiana St. (Purdue), Howard (Rutgers), Weber (Washington), and South Dakota (Wisconsin).
Hope you enjoyed. Anything you find interesting?
Go Blue!
February 15th, 2024 at 8:48 PM ^
I find it interesting that anyone would think the OSU defense is better than ours. Even with all that we lost.
February 15th, 2024 at 8:55 PM ^
I find it interesting that anyone thinks Ryan Day could win a big game.
February 17th, 2024 at 12:45 PM ^
Well he certainly can win a big game when his opponent goes with 10 players on the field.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:17 PM ^
OSU kind of checks off all the SP+ boxes. Defense has a lot of *s, lots of returning players, and they were pretty good last year. But my opinion of OSU under day will always be like this
February 18th, 2024 at 1:44 AM ^
Dirty Dozen!!! Love It!! -- Dang I am old....
February 19th, 2024 at 4:43 PM ^
They added one of the best defensive players in the country to a defense that was already pretty stout.
Our defense is going to be murder, but I don't think it's a stretch to say theirs will be as well.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:00 PM ^
Overrated: Missouri
Underrated: Utah
Should not be rated: MSU
February 15th, 2024 at 9:26 PM ^
Right now, I'd say LSU is way overrated. Nussmeier is not the same playmaker as Daniels. And if their defense doesn't improve, they're going to need a playmaker to put up a lot of points.
If Rising is back at Utah, then they could definitely run the Big 12. That conference is...Woof!
February 19th, 2024 at 4:46 PM ^
Have you seen Mizzou's schedule?
February 15th, 2024 at 9:02 PM ^
LSU, you are my favorite sicko
February 15th, 2024 at 9:29 PM ^
Aw, shucks. [blushing] I'll bet you say that to all the sickos.
And right back at ya, from one sicko to another.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:35 PM ^
This is nothing... I'm ready to watch Iowa football again.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:56 PM ^
There are three (3!) B10 teams projected with worse offenses. It's unimaginable.
February 15th, 2024 at 10:26 PM ^
Iowa and USC are now in the same conference and we still can't get that matchup. Give us what we want to see!
February 16th, 2024 at 11:35 AM ^
It's absolutely criminal that we were robbed of the opportunity to watch Spencer Petras ball out against Alex Grinch's defense.
February 16th, 2024 at 2:16 PM ^
Coaching changes, and starters returning from injuries, mean that Iowa Football will be much different next season than it was this past season
Sadface.
February 16th, 2024 at 7:13 AM ^
If we finish the season ranked #5, Sherrone Moore better win Coach of the Year.
February 16th, 2024 at 7:21 AM ^
Ranking is less important than beating OSU
February 16th, 2024 at 9:17 AM ^
I see Sickos, I click.
February 16th, 2024 at 9:53 AM ^
I'm 100% on board with 2Pac as the official conference name for toOSU and wazzu.
February 16th, 2024 at 10:25 AM ^
Here’s a closer look at the new improved B1G for anyone that’s interested.
That's great, but about TOUGHNESS??
February 16th, 2024 at 5:07 PM ^
That'll hopefully come with the rankings after the spring practice.
February 16th, 2024 at 12:54 PM ^
Nice analysis. Great work as always!
NOTE: P5? What's a P5? ...oh, you mean P4! ...actually you probably mean P2x2.
I would prefer to see the B1G schedules showing only conference games. In-conference scheduling will be a huge factor in determining which two teams make it to the B1G CG.
(...will be a lot of out-of-balance scheduling within conference play, unfortunately.)
February 16th, 2024 at 4:58 PM ^
Here are the summaries for in-conference opponents only. Just for you, Chuck!
I didn't even think to look at this; it makes sense. But I hate that it makes your team's schedule look a bit better. 😊
February 17th, 2024 at 1:31 PM ^
Yes, OSU's 2024 non-conference schedule has a very Michigan 2022-23 feel to it. That certainly brings down their strength of schedule overall. Strength of schedule within B1G games will have a direct effect upon who gets to play for the conference championship.
There's a clear top-4, then a huge gap to the rest of the pack, according to SP+.
- no team plays all of the top 4
- 5 teams play 3 of the top 4
- 9 teams play 2 of the top 4
- 3 teams play only 1 of the top 4
- 1 team plays none of the top 4 (hooray Rutgers!)
Of the top 4:
- OSU is the only team to play each of the other 3
- Michigan & Oregon both play 2 of the other 3
- Penn St plays only 1 of the other 3
Penn St clearly appears to have the scheduling advantage among the top expected contenders. If OSU gets to the B1G CCG they will have earned it!
Thanks!
February 16th, 2024 at 4:31 PM ^
Notre Dame will find themselves struggling to find relevance before long. The 12 team playoff is potentially a huge life preserver for ND. On the other hand, Notre Dame is shaping up to be a perpetual also-ran. They're never going to be in position to win it all. I'd be shocked. ND in 2024 has more in common with Penn State than they do with Michigan, Oregon, or OSU.
February 16th, 2024 at 5:05 PM ^
The 12 team playoff is potentially a huge life preserver for ND.
True, but not being in a conference means they'll never get a home playoff game, right?
I guess that's another similarity with Switzerland--they'll never fight on their home turf.
February 17th, 2024 at 5:23 PM ^
Actually, it means ND will never get a bye. They could get a home game as a 5-8 seed.
February 17th, 2024 at 6:06 PM ^
Damn. That's right. For some reason I was thinking conference champs get the home game. The 1st round bye is better than the 1st round home game, but it still sucks that conference champs won't get a chance to play a home playoff game under the current setup.
February 17th, 2024 at 3:56 AM ^
Given the fact that Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina want to leave the ACC, thereby destabilizing it, Notre Dame will be faced with some unpleasant (for them) choices.
The ACC was happy to offer a loose affiliation. The SEC or the B1G won't. They'll have to join a conference as full members.
Of course, my feeling is fuck Notre Dame. I hope they wander in the wilderness for all eternity, but the SEC and the B1G will want them, so they'll have a pretty soft landing wherever they want to go.
I hope it's the SEC. Let 'em have a steady diet of Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Texas and Oklahoma.
February 17th, 2024 at 3:54 PM ^
A steady diet of UM, OSU, PSU, Ore, Wash, UCLA, USC, and even Whisky and Iowa would also be fatal to a team that gets along by saying they are great and not having to back it up .
February 19th, 2024 at 12:21 PM ^
I would prefer that the Big Ten tells ND “All or Nothing”. But… recent moves have shown that its all about money and the tv contract, and doesn’t have anything to do with academics, research, connecting with alums, travel and student health, etc. So the Big Ten won’t play hardball with Notre Dame if there is money to be made.
Therefore, I fully expect that once FSU and others break out of the ACC, that The B1G and ND come to an agreement somewhere between full membership and the current ND/ACC agreement.
I’m guessing full membership in all sports except football, and 6-7 Big Ten football games with some guardrails: like protecting the annual USC game, forcing the B1G to support the Shamrock series (ND Vs Maryland in Baltimore, Vs Rutgers at Yankee stadium, etc), and maybe protected or more-often-than-not games against Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State. Also giving some preferential treatment to NBC in the TV selections.
February 17th, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^
Got thru a third and realized that the portal reopens on May 1st n closes 15 days later. Hold ur breath.
February 17th, 2024 at 4:47 PM ^
And then there'll be another SP+ ranking. Can't wait!
February 19th, 2024 at 11:25 AM ^
Man, these posts do likely fit better in diaries but I am a lot more likely to see them in the MGoBoard. Great content as always!
You are my favorite of the non-front page posters.
February 19th, 2024 at 1:12 PM ^
Thanks, 989.Wolverine!
Yeah, I wasn't sure about the diary or board. I'll definitely keep them on the MGoBoard during the season. It seems to get more discussion, even if it only survives for a day.
February 20th, 2024 at 1:59 AM ^
number 5 seems about right. Our D will be good but our offense may take a step back with JJ leaving for the NFL. However, the 2024 team reminds me a lot of the '97 team. So a NC is still possible.
February 23rd, 2024 at 6:39 PM ^
Has any team gone from runner-up in the CFB Playoff to unranked (currently #29) in the following preseason?
Didn't TCU do this the year before?
February 23rd, 2024 at 9:49 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing when I first looked at these rankings, but they were actually preseason #20 in the SP in 2023.
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