fourth down decisions

RIP. Sad week for the Michigan family, as Mister Simpson and Ryan Mallett both died far too young. Mallett drowned off the Gulf Coast—apparently one of 11 people to lose their lives to rip currents in the past two weeks. Simpson's death is under investigation by the Cincinnati police department. Keep their families in your thoughts.

Toe meets leather. Warde Manuel asserts that the changed Big Ten format will not affect The Game:

“The Game will remain at noon in the regular season when we play,” Manuel said on “In the Trenches,” a podcast produced by Michigan Athletics. “We’ve had great fan enjoyment of that game, and being at noon. Great television response in terms of numbers of people who who watch that game. I think there’s no need to move it to any other time. It’s really been become a part of that series and people sort of set their calendar, set their clock to watch that game at noon on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.”

This of course sets up the unappetizing possibility of an immediate rematch for the Big Ten championship, but aside from some wacky bloggers making wacky, impossible suggestions—Seth and I are specialists in this department—I'm not sure what the alternative is.

Also note the assumption that the Game will be at noon, which is technically not guaranteed—Fox could choose another Big Ten game for their #1 overall pick—but is about as certain as anything in this crazy mixed-up world.

Math wins. There used to be a cottage industry around here: fourth-down clucking. We still mention it from time to time, but the section on the podcast that used to mention unforgivable Brady Hoke decisions has mostly been reduced to things like "ehhh… that's really close." That's because college football has gotten a lot more aggressive on fourth down. Bill Connelly provides a graph:

Since there are occasional correct punt decisions even in the top two categories college coaches are probably approaching optimal. I also enjoy the big spike in 2020, as the college football collective decided that nothing mattered lol. Then they were like "oh… that worked" and kept going for it.

Michigan was not on the leading edge—you probably know this—but chose its spots superbly:

Meanwhile, Michigan went for it just 21% of the time (87th) but picked its spots well and profited by 5.3 points per game (ninth). Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines converted 17 of 21 attempts (81%, second in FBS) and scored 81 points after those 17 conversions. Opponents scored only seven points after the four failures.

No decision was more important, bold, and correct than Michigan going for it on fourth and one in their own territory early in the third quarter against OSU. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes:

OSU's power success rate last year: 117th.https://t.co/yCiOphiKq4

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) June 22, 2023

I imagine this is high on the list of offseason priorities in Columbus. It'll be interesting to see how that number changes this year. If it stays stubbornly low it could be a sign that Ryan Day's just a finesse kind of guy.

[After THE JUMP: yeahhhh we're just going to ignore you thanks]

11/12/2022 – Michigan 34, Nebraska 3 – 10-0, 7-0 Big Ten

We have acquired First World problems. My main thought while observing this game was "I wish these guys were more interesting." An injury to the opposition's starting quarterback is now a negative. From Michigan's first snap it was clear that if they wanted to they could grind Nebraska into paste without throwing a single time. One Michigan possession started out with consecutive deep balls; that felt like when you get bored playing a video game and try to up the difficulty level by doing something absurd and unnecessary.

When I was a youth playing Tecmo Super Bowl you'd do this by picking Tampa Bay. Tampa had one incredible defensive back, Mark Carrier, and nothing else. The most viable strategy deep into the season when things got harder was to build your offense around running QB Vinny Testaverde six yards at a time. (For the youth, this is like building your offense around running Tom Brady, if Tom Brady only ever said "it'sa me, Vinny Testaverde." This would be a strange thing for Tom Brady to say, but it was just as strange when Vinny Testaverde won the Heisman (seriously! look it up!) and his acceptance speech was merely that. (Don't look up that part.))

Anyway, if you ran ol' Vinny too much he'd get tired and would inevitably fumble. Sometimes he would die.

So you'd have to carefully balance the only thing that would get you yards with not getting any yards at all. This probably sounds familiar to Chubba Purdy.

In the past we have theorized that the world is a simulation, and that it is the worst of all possible simulations: an Akron teenager's NCAA Football save in which he is taking Ohio State to a million national championships in a row. Now we must reconsider. It is possible that the simulation is someone who is bored with his game and is trying to see if he can beat Michigan with Gavin Wimsatt, Chubba Purdy, Spencer Petras, or Peyton Thorne. The answer is no. God no. Hell no.  Play a different game.

---------------------------------------------------

Michigan has now reached the tier of college football teams where their games are largely ignored because they are not interesting. Alabama is playing Mizzou, you say? Ohio State is up against Michigan State? Georgia is playing… uh… the #1 team in the country? Pass, I have better things to do than watch a heavy favorite sit on someone for four hours.

For the neutral viewer Michigan is at least offering up some moderately competitive first halves, but the methods via which they have to do so are increasingly outlandish. Then the third quarter has been ritual sacrifice. For years and years and years Michigan has been the sort of heavy favorite that you always pay attention to because about 40% of the time they get into a game against a team that was supposed to be sat upon, and fairly often they'd actually lose. Michigan was worth your time, because they were good but not boring good. They were schadenfreude good.

This was an emphatic statement that no, you do not have to watch Michigan games against 30-point underdogs anymore. The method via which Michigan chooses to sit upon the opponent is literal. You will not get any whizbang long touchdowns. Every play will be a run that gains somewhere between four and twelve yards. The red hat will come on the field at some point for touchdown-commercial-kickoff-commercial because one Michigan drive ate up eight minutes of the quarter.

Variance has been banished. Players have been sat down for ever-more esoteric injuries because Michigan can throw out eight functional offensive linemen. Blake Corum's largest Heisman hurdle may be an inability to keep neutrals awake for his 28th carry of five or more yards.

It is all very relaxing, football as a Caribbean vacation. We are permitted to save up our panic for the terminator at the end of the schedule.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

bro [Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 The Offensive Line. Can't really give this to Corum when CJ Stokes, Tavierre Dunlap, and Isaiah Gash all got in and looked kinda like Blake Corum while continuing to brutalize the Nebraska defense. A couple of pass protection hiccups do not override what was probably the worst ass-kicking delivered to a conference opponent since the Big 2, Little 8 days.

#2 Mason Graham. A sack, another hit on the QB that caused an incompletion, a ridiculous split of a double team, and two other solo tackles as a DT, with limited snaps, against a team that couldn't stay on the field. That is a massive amount of impact. True freshman, somehow. Going to be incredible.

#3 Blake Corum. I mean… yeah. Do you know how hard it is to average 5.8 YPC with a long of 12? That's insane.

Honorable mention: CJ Stokes made the most of his eight carries, displaying a Higdon-like ability to get vertical and make good cuts. Mazi Smith and Kris Jenkins both whooped up on Nebraska DL. Andrel Anthony didn't do a whole lot but did rescue a touchdown. Ronnie Bell managed a bunch of yards even in this game.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

43: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa. HM Indiana, T2 PSU, #1 MSU, T1 Rutgers, #3 Nebraska)
23: The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa, #1 PSU, HM MSU, #3 Rutgers, #1 Nebraska)
21: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, #3 Indiana, HM PSU, HM MSU. HM Rutgers)
17: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa, T1 Indiana, #3 PSU, HM Rutgers), Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn, #2 Indiana, HM PSU, HM Nebraska)
15:  Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, #2 MSU, HM Rutgers, HM Nebraska)
14: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, HM MSU, HM Nebraska)
9: Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii, T2 PSU, T1 Rutgers)
8: Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, #2 Nebraska)
7: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland, HM PSU)
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland), Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn, HM PSU), Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, HM MSU), Michael Barrett (#2 Rutgers).
4: Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana),  Jake Moody (HM PSU, #3 MSU).
3: Derrick Moore (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Rod Moore (HM CSU, HM Indiana, HM MSU)
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland), Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland, HM Indiana)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), , AJ Henning (HM UConn), Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), RJ Moten (HM Maryland), Will Johnson (HM Rutgers), CJ Stokes (HM Nebraska), Andrel Anthony (HM Nebraska).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

God, who can tell when every offensive play is a run somewhere between 4 and 12 yards? I don't know, you pick one.

Honorable mention: Ronnie Bell gets Michigan a Rube Goldberg touchdown. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant flash next year stuff. More runs from between 4 and 12 yards.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Back to back attempted deep shots fall incomplete, mildly annoying people concerned about the outcome of this game and delivering a deep-seated paranoia to people focused on what happens against Ohio State.

Honorable mention: The other deep shots that fell incomplete. DJ Turner gets hit with a deep shot, see above about OSU paranoia. Officials blow a very obvious roughing the kicker penalty. Late half clock management is abominable.

9/11/2021 – Michigan 31, Washington 10 – 2-0

It is not, in fact, true that the Michigan fanbase is unique amongst fanbase in its capacity to self-immolate amongst news that in any non-sports context would be taken as "good." Take it from someone who spent years writing This Week In Schadenfreude, a trip through the most psychotic reaches of college football's internet underbelly. TWIS often featured teams who had won (in the sense that their team had a bigger number than the opponent) but had lost in a much more immediate and real way (because the third-string cornerback gave up a touchdown that one time). Sports brain always works the same way.

However, your author will concede if there was a national championship for hand-wringing, Michigan would be in the playoff conversation annually. On the one hand, this makes total sense given the last seventeen years. On the other, it is very annoying. The responses I got to this tweet…

Yeah Michigan can probably kneel this game out but it's real ominous that they're acting like they have to.

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) September 12, 2021

…were split between "this tweet is annoying" and replies like "JJ MCARTHY NOW" that I found annoying. Sports tweeting is like driving: the only appropriate speed to be going is exactly the speed you are going. Everything else == jail.

In the cold, hard light of day on this Monday I can see both sides of the equation. Yes, it is pretty good that Michigan took a P5 opponent with some recent history of being a good defense and paved them in a way I haven't seen in a long time. On the podcast I referenced the 2019 ND game, but even that featured a large number of stuffed runs interspersed with big plays based off misdirection. In this game if Michigan didn't get four yards on a run it was a surprise. When's the last time that happened? Probably at some point when honorary captain Steve "Not Aidan's Dad" Hutchinson was roaming the field. And honestly, my recollection of Lloyd Carr offenses doesn't have anything like this in it. This felt like a game from the 70s.

Yes, it is pretty bad that Michigan seemed to have an aversion to passing that was also out of the 1970s. You can say this makes sense given the game context, and maybe it did. But it nonetheless feels bad when you end up in situations that are obviously passing downs and then barely pass. It conjures up ideas about what the offense will look like when it inevitably runs up against a team that doesn't get paved.

You can be forgiven if the internet has beaten this fact out of your head but it is possible to hold both of these thoughts in your head at once. I am not immune to this, either, despite my clucking. On the podcast I said that I didn't think this offense could beat Ohio State, and then immediately apologized because my expectations going into the season weren't "beat Ohio State," they were "ehhhh… bowl eligible?"

This is the grandeur and glory of sports fandom: you literally never have to be sane or happy. You can hop from grumbling about 7-5 to grumbling about 9-3 to grumbling about beating a P5 team by 21 in a game that wasn't actually that close, spiritually. These avenues are open to you, and you can take them, and anyone not going at your speed will seem insane. But also you can literally never be dissuaded from optimism. There was a certain kind of Cubs fan who thought this was the year, every year, and anyone not going at that speed was insane.

So you get these camps of people and give them a common allegiance and a way to communicate to each other and you get a great firestorm of anger in the midst of Michigan grinding a name brand Pac-12 school into a fine dust. Here too there is a choice. This is what is great about sports; this is what is stupid about sports. If you sit very still in a forest for several months you will find they are the same thing.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

mmm dump truck holes [Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Your Offensive Line. This column generally punts on specific OL for this section because it does not have time to form an opinion on every dang guy; that's a process that requires UFR. So when the OL needs to be in this bit of the column they get it as a unit. Their placement here should be self-explanatory. If you need an explanation: 345 rushing yards on 55 carries.

#2 Aidan "My Dad's Name Is Chris" Hutchinson. 2.5 sacks and down-to-down terror whilst being frequently matched against a tackle that people think could go in the first round of the draft. One of the lingering Qs from the WMU game was whether Hutchinson could be an every-down problem. The answer appears to be an emphatic yes.

#3(t) Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. 155 and 171 yards, respectively, maybe not a missed cut between them, and plenty of yards generated themselves after the OL set them up. Full points for both! They're made up and don't matter!

Honorable mention: Mazi Smith got a ton of push on the interior. Josh Ross was quite a bit more active and ended up with 11 tackles, a TFL, a PBU, and three hurries. Brad Robbins had 4 punts with a 46 average and one return for four yards. Jake Moody had a 52 yard field goal and put almost all of his KOs out of the endzone.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), The OL (#1 Wash), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash)
6: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash)
4: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash)
3: Dax Hill (#3 WMU)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU), AJ Henning (HM WMU), Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Brad Robbins (HM Wash), Jake Moody (HM Wash), Josh Ross (HM Wash), Mazi Smith (HM Wash)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

lol nope [Barron]

Blake Corum. Meep meep.

6⃣7⃣ yards, untouched.@blake_corum runs by Washington for the game's first TD. pic.twitter.com/MpKgi8ahBZ

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 12, 2021

Honorable mention: Pick anything off the third quarter drive that was seven runs, zero passes, and a touchdown. John Donovan calls a run play on fourth and four. McNamara and Cornelius Johnson execute an excellent back shoulder throw to convert third and long.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

This one goes out to the people in the crowd booing when Michigan was up 10-0. Yeah, some frustrating playcalling. Let's get it together.

Honorable mention: Haskins is stuffed on fourth and goal from the one. Various McNamara dropbacks go Not Well.

[After THE JUMP: successful coordination, shirts edition; unsuccessful coordination, football edition]