Softball - Big Ten Preview - Tournament and Turtles

Michigan begins its Big Ten Tournament today in the third game, scheduled for 5:30 pm (eastern time) against Maryland.

The tournament began yesterday, but the top four teams received a bye to the quarterfinals. This is the 2/10 game, since Maryland upset Penn State, 3-1, in nine innings yesterday.

This might on its surface look like good news for the Wolverines, as it means they don't have to face Big Ten Freshman of the Year Bridget Nemeth, who looked good against Michigan a couple of weeks ago. Michigan's sweep was fueled heavily by junior Lauren Derkowski, who won two games and was named national Pitcher of the Week by one of the major publications.

Still, Penn State was 35th in RPI going into the tournament and Maryland was 116th. So... kinda bad news. Michigan, at 37 in RPI, is currently on the good side of the NCAA tournament bubble. But RPI depends heavily on the RPI of your opponents. It's only 1/4 your team's record alone. So just playing Maryland adds their 24-29 record to your RPI. A loss might actually drop the Wolverine into the danger zone. While playing Penn State again, with the Nittany Lions at 35-17 (if they had won - they're currently 34-18) would have been much kinder to the Michigan RPI.

The other bad piece is that Maryland is very dangerous. You might look at their pitching and see that Courtney Wyche (9th in the Big Ten at a 2.73 ERA) will be tired after a nine-inning game and the rest of the Maryland pitching staff is far from intimidating. The Terrapins are 137th in Division I in ERA at 3.60. But... Wyche is third in innings pitched in the league, and Maryland can and will use her today if they feel the need. She also leads the Big Ten in strikeouts by a wide margin. She goes out there and throws hard and walks a lot of batters and gets out of innings with the strikeouts.

Maryland is similarly hit or miss with their offense, 107th in Division I at 4.65 runs per game. They pack most of that into the heart of the order. Their most dangerous hitter is first baseman Diamond Williams, who has 14 of the team's 39 home runs this season and an OPS of 1023. She's joined by center fielder Jaeda McFarland (1.030) and right fielder Mazie MacFarlane (.970). Keep all three from doing a lot of damage and you probably beat the Terrapins. Otherwise, they can chip away at you every other inning.

Wyche, Williams, McFarland and MacFarlane are all COVID kids - in their fifth years as graduate students. A lot of softball experience out there, and this is their last shot at a Big Ten title. McFarland was named to the Big Ten All-League First Team. The other three, along with sophmore designated player Sydney Lewis, were named to the Second Team.

For Michigan, 38-16, Derkowski will undoubtedly start on the mound. She has a 2.19 ERA, third in the Big Ten and 104th in Division I. She is third in strikeouts as well, behind Wyche and Nemeth. Derkowski was named to the All-Big Ten First Team.

Here's the batting order (OPS, HRs) for Michigan:
LF Ellie Sieler, Jr, (.982, 6) - First-Team All-Big Ten
2B Indiana Langford, So, (.692, 1)
3B Maddie Erickson, So, (1.006, 10) - First-Team All-Big Ten
1B Keke Tholl, Sr, (.993, 14) - First-Team All-Big Ten
RF Ella Stephenson, Fr, (.775, 3) - Second-Team All-Big Ten, unanimous selection to All-Freshman Team
CF Jenissa Conway, Fr, (.920, 9)
C  Lilly Vallimont, rFr, (.721, 5)
DP Ava Costales, Fr, (.949, 6)
SS Ella McVey, Jr (.687, 0)

Michigan needs to find its hitting stroke again. Over a 20-game stretch starting with the Big Ten opener, the team averaged 7.6 runs per game and were held under four runs just once (against Northwestern's Ashley Miller - the league's Pitcher of the Year). The last two weekends... under four runs four times in six games. The freshmen are all in deep slumps except Stephenson. This extremely young team needs to play with confidence against Maryland's veterans.

Leadoff Quarterfinal tomorrow: - 1. Northwestern versus 8. Indiana, noon.

The Wildcats are defending champions, led by Miller. Infielder Kansas Robinson, freshman outfielder Emma Raye and sophomore outfielder Kelsey Nader lead the offense. Northwestern is ranked 23rd in the country by USA Softball with a 33-10 record. Their RPI is a league-best 29th. Indiana got past Purdue yesterday, 6-3. The Hoosiers have a deep offense, best in the league at 6.22 runs per game, led by outfielder Taylor Minnick.

4. Nebraska versus 5. Minnesota, 2:30 pm.

The Cornhuskers have a powerful offense led by Billie Andrews, and suspect pitching (obligatory mention of Jordy Bahl, who was limited to 2 1/3 innings this year - if she hadn't gotten hurt, Nebraska is probably a top-ten team). Minnesota is very similar and led by Player of the Year Jess Oakland, their shortstop, who is also up for National Player of the Year. The Gophers beat Illinois yesterday, 10-7, in nine innings.

3. Rutgers versus 11. Wisconsin, 9:00 pm.

Wisconsin shocked Ohio State, 5-1, yesterday. One hitter to watch is freshman designated player Hilary Blomberg. The Scarlet Knights are 83rd in RPI, but snuck into the third seed for the league tournament behind outfielder Morgan Smith, who tied Oakland for the league lead with 19 home runs this season. Mattie Boyd, their top pitcher, had a very strong season. Those two make Rutgers dangerous, even though the rest of the team doesn't look very strong on paper.

Depending on how many people are following the game today (I assume someone will start a game thread), if Michigan wins I'll either post semifinal previews here or in a new item. At least it's not football season, even if this isn't OT. 34-13... still smiling about it every day.