alex orji

Earlier this week I put out a call on the internet for mailbag questions. Today I have answers: 

Higher 2024 (and 2024 - 2025) ceiling: UM football or UM basketball? (-zh2oson)

I feel like there are two different answers here, factual ceilings in an objective sports sense and fan enjoyment factor. The matter of fact ceiling is clearly still football, because the defense ought to be one of the very best in college football. That sets the floor pretty high and if the offense can be any degree of decent to good, Michigan is a top 10 team at worst, with even higher upside possible. Projecting men's basketball to be top 10 is extremely lofty, maybe a pie-in-the-sky scenario but one you don't think is likely due to how many new pieces are coming in and the likely growing pains. 

In a fan sense, I do think the upcoming basketball season could be more enjoyable than football, just because there's a fairly legitimate chance this will be the worst Michigan Football season since 2020 while it could be the best basketball season in a few years. Fan enjoyment of sports is often tied to the expectation game; an 8-4 season where you expected to go 11-1 is a miserable time while an 8-4 season when you expected to go 5-7 is a delight. Michigan Basketball being decent but not incredible could definitely be more enjoyable than Michigan Football being very good but not top five elite because one is coming off of 8-24 and the other is coming off of 15-0. 

Of all the football players who left for the NFL with eligibility remaining, who would you most want back? Where is your over/under for wins this year based on the turnover of the roster and coaching staff, the difficult schedule, and the holes on offense? (-AC1997) 

Going to take JJ out of the equation for the first question here because he's the no-brainer answer that needs no explanation. Beyond JJ, I think it's best to look at what areas of the team are a little weak right now. Corner could use depth but Josh Wallace and Mike Sainristil didn't have eligibility. DL depth is a little thin, but the starters are so good I don't think that one makes sense. The more pressing areas are at offensive tackle and wide receiver. Roman Wilson had eligibility remaining (Cornelius Johnson didn't), as did Trente Jones and Karsen Barnhart (Henderson didn't). Given Trente's recent retirement, I don't think we can pick him, so it comes down to Barnhart vs. Wilson. Between those two, you gotta pick Wilson because he was a significantly better football player. 

The Vegas lines put out this week had Michigan at 9.5. I think Michigan is clearly favored over Fresno, Arkansas St, Minnesota, @Illinois, MSU, @Indiana, and Northwestern, so that's 7. The remaining group is Texas, USC, and Washington at home, as well as Oregon and OSU on the road. Michigan is an underdog to me in the road games to me, probably favored over USC and Washington, and maybe a slight 'dog to Texas? I'd probably put the O/U at 8.5 personally, because I'm intrigued by USC and the trio of Texas/Oregon/Ohio State should be elite. Michigan will have a chance to beat all of them if they can put up a good offense, but I'm not entirely convinced at this point that that is going to come to pass. As it stands right now, I'm going with 8.5. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More Questions]

Team Maize defeated Team Blue by a score of 17-7 at today's 2024 edition of the Michigan Football spring game. A game that was preceded by the championship ring ceremony and had numerous departed heroes strolling the sideline, the focus on the field was instead on a number of young players trying to make a name for themselves. As in past years, I'm not going to give a play-by-play recap for an exhibition game, but instead will give you a batch of instant reaction takes on what we witnessed: 

Offense

Alex Orji's potential... and areas for improvement. Orji quarterbacked the first drive for Team Blue, as well as the last, with  intermittent snaps in between. In that time we saw some good and some bad from Orji. He varied his touch on throws that showed a decent understanding of quarterbacking, but was mostly throwing checkdown passes. The final drive in particular saw the defense back off (Team Maize had a 10 point lead), ceding the underneath routes and Orji was efficient in connecting on those. But that's what you'd expect any QB at this level to be able to do, so I'm not putting much stock in that. 

However, there were more tantalizing moments. Orji delivered a pass to Max Bredeson with good zip and then sensed pressure before scrambling for a touchdown on the first drive. He also seemed to have another touchdown scramble on the last drive, but it was overturned on a questionable "sack" (the referees blew the play dead in rather dubious fashion). The athleticism and the ability to hit the easy stuff was on display but there were concerning moments. He put a ball behind Tyler Morris on the first drive and forced a laser into double coverage looking for Zack Marshall on the last drive. Orji also showed good pocket presence on a different snap a couple drives earlier, dancing in the pocket and eventually finding an open receiver on 3rd & 5... but he way overthrew his target. I'm not sure if the accuracy and reads are completely where they need to be, but Orji wasn't a total wreck and gave us enough reasons to believe he could plausibly be the QB in 2024. It didn't answer all the questions at the QB position, but there was enough on display to believe Orji could be a successful QB at some point in the future (whether that is in '24 or '25). 

Takes on the other QBs. Davis Warren was the starting QB for Team Maize and just like prior seasons, Warren looked pretty damn good. His arm talent is 100% there, which was most on display on a bomb to Kendrick Bell for a TD: 

🔔🔔🔔

📺 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/G1jgyJAwmO

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) April 20, 2024

There were several other strikes that Warren uncorked and he may well have been the most impressive QB today. However, it does feel a little difficult to take all of it seriously because Warren has looked terrific in spring games prior too, which hasn't necessarily translated to regulation games. 

Jayden Denegal was a bit of a disappointment in this one I felt. His drives for Team Maize had some moments, but ultimately left a lot to be desired. Yes he did hit a bomb to Fred Moore, but he also threw a wretched interception to DJ Waller (which was punched out and recovered as a fumble), threw a ball that was batted at the line, fumbled a snap that killed the two minute drill in the second quarter, and had a couple other iffy looking throws on the fourth drive. Based on the feel of this game, it would appear that Orji and Warren are the main two in-house contenders for the starting QB this fall. 

Jadyn Davis didn't play a ton, as expected. He threw a nice ball down the sideline for Peyton O'Leary that was PBU'd which showed off his arm talent, but he did appear to miss a wide open receiver on that very play. That was Davis' most notable moment during a short afternoon and based on today I would expect him to redshirt this fall (nothin' wrong with that). 

[AFTER THE JUMP: more takes]

FORMATION NOTES: In general Bama was so multiple that I had a hard time deciphering whether something was a 4-3 with a standup end or a 3-4 with a SAM; they would go with a 5-1, they would shift constantly. Surely the thickest playbooks in college football went head to head in this game.

I called this weird thing 30 nickel slide SAM:

You've got your line shifted to the run strength, you've got a standup end in a SAM spot, and you've got your LBs shifted to run strength. This is Bama's "please run at Justin Eboigbe" formation.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Johnson, Wilson, Barner, and Loveland all got at least two-thirds of Michigan's snaps. Corum wasn't far behind. Morris, Edwards, Morgan, and Bredeson had 10-20; Mullings and Orji had cameos.

[After the JUMP: retired that so and so]